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Thread: Syria related aviation events, news and discussion

  1. #91
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    Sorry MSphere’s toys all egressed from the pram, but telling that less than 1/3 of his post was deemed to contain any useful substance when the incoherent mess was sanitized.

    It’s pretty simple why the truth of what happened needs following up. If the crew was hit without warning then something failed with early warning capabilities (which Syria relies on Russia to provide) preventing Syrian crews from being notified.

    Assuming this was the case then...

    1) Russia didn’t know until the attack was already underway and it’s EW systems failed to detect the attack.
    2) Russia did know (and was warned prior via de-escalation channels) and CHOSE not to inform Syrian and Iranian forces (Chose Israel over its strategic allies), effectively allowing Israel to surprise its targets and increased the number of casualties.

    If it’s case 2, then Russia betrayed its allies.

    What we do know for certain is that to date, Russia has not been shooting down US and Israeli missiles. Why? Shooting down missiles is not an act of war. They’ve said in the media that they would do it, why are they holding back?

    Is it because they can’t or because they won’t?

    Also another interesting factor... the nice clear video image from the missile. Complete, 100% lack of effective signal jamming.
    Last edited by OooShiny; 13th May 2018 at 05:26.

  2. #92
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    Perhaps the car broke down and so stood without traffic, crew and weapons
    Last edited by paralay; 13th May 2018 at 06:09.

  3. #93
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    Broke down on the runway 06/24 of Mezze AB near treshold 240?!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RI_tr7aGR8c
    Last edited by Sens; 13th May 2018 at 08:30.

  4. #94
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    Quote Originally Posted by FBW
    So what some of our fine posters are trying to sell the rest of us is essentially this:

    After firing all missiles and shells at incoming Israeli strike, they decided to stand on the side of the road (smoke break?) on the way to rearming. All while strike was ongoing.

    Is that about the gist of it? I mean was it out of fuel too? Because it makes a conspicuous target in the middle of the road. Right....

    It got hit. End of story. It happens in war. There is no shame in it. Syrian AD has been battered for years, it’s probably hard for them to maintain early warning and command and control of an AD system in the middle of a Civil war. The lies and excuses that get shuttled about on social media are just embarrassing,
    It would be highly unlikely, as you say, for them to exhaust all missiles and just hang around in the middle of the runway and then stand next to a prime target for Missile strikes, knowing full well that a major strike operation is underway and that they, or something in the vicinity is a target (hence their use of the AD system or so is claimed). One assumes that the PANTSIR unit had gas and could simply drive off to a safer location or closer to the reload truck. It would also not be a very smart move, against an opponent with substantial ISR capabilities, to have operated a highly mobile AD system at a location and then have a resupply truck come and re-arm at the very same location - it opens up the possibility of loosing both. But then as I said, the claim that it was waiting to be resupplied is not based on any credible evidence. The original forum member who threw it out there simply posted a random tweet and no resupply vehicle, or operation can be seen in the only official account of the actual strike (hence the entire post was purely speculative and involved wild guesses being thrown around on twitter).

    Regardless, all we have to go by (original post by Austin) is a random twitter account, an official video of the strike that captures events leading up to impact, and an after shot released by the twitter account with the twitter member's annotation right down to a wild guess as to the weapon used. This leaves more questions that the answers it seeks to provide (I bet plenty will be saying that the after photo could have been staged as well since the Syrian side had no video of the attack from their side).

    In the end, just about the only fact that is indisputable is that this Pantsir system wouldn't really be launching any more interceptors at targets for the remainder of this conflict.

    How do we know it struck an authentic PANTSIR and not a decoy?
    One would assume that a three-four person crew wouldn't be standing right next to a decoy target, nor would one be rushing towards it after noticing an incoming attack. But then given some of the claims and counter claims I wouldn't totally reject the possibility of decoy systems also waiting to be re-loaded after exhausting their missiles

    Quote Originally Posted by Stealthflanker
    The thing that i worries most is the apparent lack of sorties from SyAF.. where are those MiG-29's. One element of IADS is the interceptor/fighter aircraft. Fighter would have better chance than SAM's to pick low flying cruise missiles or enforcing sovereignty.
    Things to take note of or attempt to clarify (imho) -

    - Was the entire Airport/base, some 5 km from the Presidential palace equipped with just one Pantsir system and no other Air-Defense coverage? If there was additional coverage, then Israeli aircraft, UAV's and/or Cruise Missiles were able to operate and strike at a single target at the center of the airport without loosing any shooter/man-in-the-loop to guide the missile. If this was the case, the Syrians have a bigger problem than trying to make up excuses for loosing one Pantsir system which is a small fish in the bigger scheme of things.
    Last edited by bring_it_on; 13th May 2018 at 10:45.
    Old radar types never die; they just phased array

  5. #95
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    Let me start from the main source of the picture that are published there. the twitter account called Wael (Wael@AlRussi).

    Although I didn't know the whereabout of the person behind it and his relation with the government or the Army it is surely an overall good, direct source of what it is happening on field, quite open to publish even bad news for the regime
    .

    Yesterday he published the news and the imagine of a second casuality of the Pantsir engagement: the Lt. Ali Essa Mustafa. RIP to him.

    However it's the person that run to the Pantsir the most important one to try to understand what it is happening.

    He was the Lt. Colonel Ayam Habib, a survivor of the Kuveires airbase siege, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuweir...November_2015)
    he met his own fate trying to recover the fire unit under its own (given his grade...) command in front of an unexpected attack.
    An heroic feat if any, may I say?

    Said so, I honestly didn't get what particular fault some of you found in the crew position.
    Unit was inactive a.t.m. of the fatal attack, so why they should stay inside it while waiting it to be reloaded (or repaired), to die all together?

    More important in a site like this, supposed to be military technology focused is to concentrate our attention the weapon credited to have been used to destroy it: the IAI Harop.

    It's a suicide attack drone, used for SEAD missions with the capacity to operate in a man-on-the-loop mode and with an endurance of about 6 hours.
    So, lot of time to stay on target AFTER an air attack was madehoping to take enemy air defences while inactive/reloading/moving to a shelter etc. etc...

    To sum it up my own position is that:
    The Pantsir has effectively been engaged in combat, not just staying idle.

    It was however not active a.t.m. of the attack, just not sure if because of a malfunction or while waiting to be reloaded.

    Crew has not particular faults, just being targeted in a bad moment by a weapon specifically designed to operate in such a way.

    Such an attack however its a bad news for AD systems and instead a good one for drone designers.

    No way how much efficient a single AA system can be (and Pantsir is one of the best overall and probably the best in its own category), they still can be overcame and caught unaware.

    Given that the future american next gen air warfare is gearing toward the wide use of swarm drones, we have there a precise idea of how it can work.
    Last edited by Marcellogo; 13th May 2018 at 18:31.

  6. #96
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    A good post Marc@

    I don't get this fuzz about a This Pantsir being taken out.
    Let me share my centiments about this.
    Back in 1992/3 i did my manditory military service in our then year Anti-air battalion called NOAH.
    A Norwegian Adapted(US) HAWK missile system.
    We had both L-70 Bofors and wheeled quad 50cal. Anti-air guns for adittional support.
    Anyway, the take-away was that whenever we were deployed, we was constantly on the move.. as i remember it, it was a pain in the @ss to relocate a whole battery. But it had to be done.. all the time. It didn't matter if we had exausted our missiles or not. The Rules was that we had like 6 different pre-prepared launch sites to rotate through. And in war time we could deploy about anywhere suited. We never stayed longer than two days on one launch site.
    But the general deal was if we had any contact with bandits. Relocating was i order, ASAP!
    When i say relocating was a pain, it was due to all the tel's connected with search radar, track radar and HQ section (a container).
    And between all those units, Big heavy cables were. These had to be rolled back in each time, as well as power supply cables from PSU(diesel generators). They were transported on seperate trucks (the cables barrels weight several 100 kg and the Barrel needed to be lifted by crane). It seemed like it took forever. But we were on the road after 2,5 hours at best..
    Yeah this were the days

    Now compare this with the modern Pantsir where it takes 5 minutes from transport mode to fully deployed mode. And you get the idea where i'm going with this..
    Relocating was life. Under no circumstance were you to dickaround if you had any contacts prior.

    Now lets get real. There is many different angle to what might had made the Pantsir in question to get reckt.

    If we take the following pictures where the tubes looked scorched as in used. Then i would just give the crew of the SAA Pantsir a good grade D. As in ****e.
    If they really was on their way to relocate for reload missile.. it seems they stopped on the way to have a cigarette and bragg about their latest engagement.

    We will never know for sure, but i'll say this. All of SAA and Russian Pantsir units in Syria have done a good deal of work. Taking down drones and A2G missile alike.
    Whopping diddelydoo what does it matter if one Pantsir was taken out. I would like to know the SAA stockpile of Pantsir missile for one..
    Is Russia just restocking the SAA by the hour or what?
    Last edited by haavarla; 14th May 2018 at 09:54.

  7. #97
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    Quote Originally Posted by FBW
    So what some of our fine posters are trying to sell the rest of us is essentially this:

    After firing all missiles and shells at incoming Israeli strike, they decided to stand on the side of the road (smoke break?) on the way to rearming. All while strike was ongoing.

    Is that about the gist of it? I mean was it out of fuel too? Because it makes a conspicuous target in the middle of the road. Right....
    Liar, liar, Pantsir on fire?
    But what a fool believes, he sees
    No wise man has the power to reason away

    -The Doobie Brothers

  8. #98
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    The first lesson in SAM class is to relocate after shooting. Modern tactical jets carry EW suites which can geolocate a shooter's position in seconds. And those jets will shoot back and kill you.

  9. #99
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    any more news on the Ka-52 that crashed in Syria last week?
    there seems to be no information on what caused the crash

  10. #100
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    Marcellogo has it right. The story of Syrian air war is about the rise of swarm. Two F15 releasing 24 SDB is just going to be lethal if they can get to that release point. it doesn't matter what you have defending the target. S400 or a Burke class destroyer it doesn't matter. If those weapons get released some of them will get through in fact I would say the odds favor the vast majority of them getting through. With virtually all of them getting through as you move down ward on the cost of defending system.

    The above is the actual lesson most of those involved will draw from Syria. What we are instead hearing now is propaganda bull about heroic Syrian air defense shooting down missile in flight with effortless precision.

  11. #101
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    Everyone has to be very careful in the actual scenario, don't trust ANYTHING being said by ANYONE and above all wait for unfolding of things.

    Every parts there produces narrative, not proofs, above all about its own loss and mishaps.
    I'm an avid and constant consumer of twitter news about Syria fro about the beginning, I trust some sources, other not at all but anything that came out even if published in perfect good faith can be wrong, biased, unilateral or could be based on deliberately cheating original sources.

    Still an hundred timed better of the MSM and millions times better of the official versions (OF EVERY SIDE, and trust me, Syrian Government is one of the lesser liars).

    Still let me repeat: Wael @l Rusi is a quite good source, surely 100% pro regime but honest enough to publish even news of losses or talk about problems in his own side.
    Last edited by Marcellogo; 15th May 2018 at 22:33.

  12. #102
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    any more news on the Ka-52 that crashed in Syria last week?
    there seems to be no information on what caused the crash
    if you're trying to assume if the Kamov crashes more than the Mi-28, you are wrong. it has a better safer safety record than then Mil.

  13. #103
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    This may sound bisarre. But its important for VKS to measure how much strain they can put on new airframes, IMO for how long they can fly before they break down. Such expirience is gold input towards the manufactors and their programs.
    Of course it would preferable happen without any crew get killed..
    Thanks

  14. #104
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    VKS has deployed helicopters and Su-25s to T-4 airbase:

    http://img818.imageshack.us/img818/9098/rsz11rsz3807.jpg

  15. #105
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    https://southfront.org/multiple-expl...-photos-video/

    Something reporteted by Reuter as well.

    Within Syria hat retweetet

    Wael ����


    @WaelAlRussi
    12 hours before
    More
    What happened in #Syria/n Air Force in #Hama
    Nearby locals were burning the arid grass near the base

    The fire spread to ammunitions which were deployed out side of depots
    Minor explosions occurred then massive ones.
    After the first explosion all the soldiers went to shelters.

    Someone in distant Damascus could tell what has happened and in official line with that.
    Last edited by Sens; 19th May 2018 at 11:52.

  16. #106
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    Piece from The Saker

    First and foremost, as I have already explained in great detail in the past, Russia has absolutely no legal or moral obligation to support, protect, arm, train or otherwise assist anybody in the Middle-East. None. Russia has already done more for Syria than the entire Arab/Muslim world combined with the notable exception of Iran and Hezbollah. As for the Arab/Muslim world, it has never done anything for Russia and still is doing nothing. So those who like to whine about Russia not doing enough simply have no case whatsoever.

    Second, the Russian air defense and air forces in Syria have only one mission: to protect the Russian task force in Syria. Whoever got the idea that Russia is supposed to shoot down Israeli aircraft or missiles over Syria has not been paying attention to public Russian statements about this. The notion that the Russian task force in Syria is there to engage US/NATO/CENTCOM forces is just as ridiculous.


    There are plenty of people in Russia who fully realize two simple things: first, a war between Iran and the Empire would be disastrous for the Empire (and therefore great for Russia) and, second, the Iranians are also “problematic” allies at best who have their own version of “Atlanticists” (remember the “Gucci Revolution”?) and “Sovereignists”, which means that tensions, or warfare, between Iran and the USA would be greatly advantageous for the anti-US camp inside Iran

  17. #107
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    Russia has absolutely no legal or moral obligation to support, protect, arm, train or otherwise assist anybody in the Middle-East.
    No one make decision based on moral or legal but core interests. which in Russia case is weopon testing, secure bases and squeezing money.

    The notion that the Russian task force in Syria is there to engage US/NATO/CENTCOM forces is just as ridiculous.
    They are not there to engage them directly without reason. but Russia can deliver sufficient missiles strikes on Jordan/Israel/Qatar or no fly zone for there commercial to remind them they helping in violating Syrian sovereignty where Russian forces operates. how Ruaf is going to test its missiles against active defenses with out challenging these countries ?

  18. #108
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    Allow me to come back again to the question of reliability of direct sources and their degree of independence from the regime.

    It is from yesterday night that they are reporting, publishing photo and videos not just making claims, that a not official ceasefire has been brokered and they are actually greenbussing ISIS fighters out of Southern Damascus pocket to an unknow destination IN THE TOTAL SILENCE OF STATE OFFICIAL MEDIA.

    Seems that Russians acted as guarantor for both the part in conflict, regime force on fields want not to even speak to the *******s but didn't want to have further losses (actually those are qualified as vastly superior to the ones suffered in East Ghouta campaign) for sweeping a pair of km° of urban terrain of no strategic value whatsoever.
    Last edited by Marcellogo; 20th May 2018 at 19:07.

  19. #109
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    Reposting material from "The Saker"? This thread has hit an all time low.

    That site's reference to "the AngloZionist propaganda machine" and its reposting of a claim that "The USA is now quite literally run by a Zionist Occupation Government, no doubt about it whatsoever." shows how questionable its viewpoint and contents are. (But if you are into 9/11 conspiracy theories, you will find that 'The Saker' has a fine collection of links to these.)
    Mercurius Cantabrigiensis

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