Key.Aero Network
Register Free

Page 4 of 10 FirstFirst 12345678 ... LastLast
Results 91 to 120 of 290

Thread: Another Amelia Theory of Disappearance

  1. #91
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Bristol
    Posts
    391
    Quote Originally Posted by Tony Hill View Post
    Loved that Ian...had a case of the 1971 in my cellar for years. VERY drinkable.
    I do have a case of Vintage Freckle Cream you can have
    Ian

  2. #92
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Posts
    172
    Not very long ago Paleontologists taught that overwhelming PHYSICAL evidence proved the existence of brontosaurus. Not so very long ago they told us that on the same evidence it never did. Last year they tell us that review of the evidence shows that it almost certainly existed.

    The existence of physical evidence is great but the human interpretation of it is deeply and fundamentally flawed by beliefs, prejudice, Confirmation Bias and outright dishonest/disingenuous interpretation.

    ANYONE who has ever dealt with Pacific Islanders, Micronesians, Polynesians etc etc, knows that their eyewitness accounts are highly subjective AND subject to wild variations in time, space and accuracy from each time to each time the question is asked OF AN INDIVIDUAL. This is because THEY do not place the same importance on the same details as we do. I have been variously told, by the same man, that he was 73, 85, 92, 100 and 105 on 5 separate occasions in 5 years and NOT IN THAT ORDER. Was he dishonest, no..about the most principled and dignified man I have ever met. But he was giving his impression of how old a westerner would think was appropriate for a man of his position and experience and the truth of the matter was THAT HE HAD NO IDEA how old he was. It isn't something they measure like us.

    So "The plane crashed in that summer of 1937" could be talking, with all honesty and good intent, about a plane 10 years either way that crashed, landed or had mechanical problems on that island or one a man was visiting. The white woman could be Amelia or a nurse who visited on a plane 10 years later.

    I hasten to reinforce that i am NOT talking about dishonesty, but differences in the importance placed and perceptions of time and space.

    That is BEFORE the odd one who is NOT averse to gilding teh lilly for financial gain!
    In Memory of:
    Flt Lt Tony Hill who successfully photographed a small "Würzburg radar" at Bruneval. 5th Dec 1941

  3. #93
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Bristol
    Posts
    391
    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Maxwell View Post
    So you think it's an airplane, too! Otherwise you would have said "The photo of the coral blob displayed under water...."
    Of course it looks like an aircraft, but what type does the eye see. But it is still Pareidolia. With any mass of pixels I'm sure you can see all sorts of things that the brain wants to put into some order.
    Ian

  4. #94
    Join Date
    Aug 2004
    Posts
    1,658
    One man's pareidolia is another man's chance to extract money from people who don't know what pareidolia means.

  5. #95
    Join Date
    Aug 2004
    Posts
    1,658
    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Deth View Post
    ... The subsequent arrival of the "pirates" and their ability to intimidate Jones and his workers into a lifetime of silence is here treated as fact .. despite the total lack of a single shred of physical evidence, archival records, eyewitnesses or even hearsay testimony to support it.

    I expect we'll be told that no theory has "proof." And that the wild, improbable speculation is necessary in order to explain the presence of the so called Lockheed 10 "replica" some people vaguely see in the Orona photograph .. taking us all right back to square one.
    Hell look on the bright side - that sort of approach hasn't stopped any of these "searchers" anywhere so why should the Hull Island Lockheed Electra be any different. In fact the more improbable and the more it relies on vague memories and even vaguer images the more likely it is to be correct - well that's what seems to be the case in every cause célèbre since those 19th century nut jobs who claimed to have found Noah's Ark, but were chased away by a large bear. Any bears on Hull Island?

    The plain truth is that they will always have an excuse why the latest expedition failed - never any news that they found what they were looking for. Where would be the fun and profit in that?

    I actually plain adore these search yarns - from buried (cough !!!! can't say it) to finding missing flyers to finding the Oak Island treasure etc. etc. they all good fun to read and take one's mind of the serious things going on as our world circles the gurgler. P. T. Barnum was a very prescient man.

  6. #96
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Posts
    35
    It's not my interpretation. Those are the dry facts about the capabilities of the cameras on QuickBird II, the primary satellite for DigitalGlobe at the time they took the photo of Orona on Google Earth. The Wikipedia entry cites the source as an article archived on the website of the Centre for Remote Imaging, Sensing, & Processing (CRISP).

    http://www.crisp.nus.edu.sg/~researc.../quickbird.htm

    If you read my post again, you'll see I actually allowed for the possibility (through "pansharpening") that the original resolution could be as fine as 1 meter per pixel. I don't know anything about how the GE ruler feature is coded .. but, it seems that, as an overlay randomly placed by the user (on another computer screen which is comprised of many thousands of pixels in its own right), it shouldn't be influenced one way or another by the relative size of the pixels in the source photo.

    This latest exchange does prompt a constructive thought. Perhaps you might have a go at contacting someone from CRISP about analyzing the photo for you?

    https://crisp.nus.edu.sg/

    As an educational (it appears to be connected to the National University of Singapore) rather than a corporate institution, they may be more willing to take on the task as a pure instructional (and somewhat entertaining) exercise.
    Last edited by Jack Deth; 6th September 2016 at 05:37.

  7. #97
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Posts
    172
    Quote Originally Posted by Wellington285 View Post
    I do have a case of Vintage Freckle Cream you can have
    Ian

    In Memory of:
    Flt Lt Tony Hill who successfully photographed a small "Würzburg radar" at Bruneval. 5th Dec 1941

  8. #98
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    UK
    Posts
    733
    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Maxwell View Post
    It is possible that the image is an aerial photo as I mentioned in a previous post........
    It is generally not a good idea to decide that the conclusion is correct and then assume that the path to reach that conclusion has to be so. Fine to consider all options but, as in all aspects of this story, there has to be at least a minimum evidence to support it. A hypothetical aerial flight producing an image with the necessary oblique angle at the target falls firmly into this category.
    Low Earth orbit satellites start at around 200miles

  9. #99
    Join Date
    Sep 2013
    Posts
    139
    The whole thread has unfortunately become LITERALLY ridiculous...

    ...until the speculating and theorising stumps up with anything at all, there would be much merit an having a well deserved hiatus in these musings and "thinking out loud" exhortations....of course until the next round...

  10. #100
    Join Date
    Aug 2016
    Posts
    72
    Quote Originally Posted by detective View Post
    The whole thread has unfortunately become LITERALLY ridiculous...

    ...until the speculating and theorising stumps up with anything at all, there would be much merit an having a well deserved hiatus in these musings and "thinking out loud" exhortations....of course until the next round...
    You are not required to waste your time here. Some of us enjoy speculating. The imaging experts, some of whom are psychiatrists as well, have critiqued the theory to say I am daft and the GE somehow doesn't work nearly so well on Pacific atolls as it does in my own neighborhood. I can't see the difference in measurement accuracy.

    One aspect of the Orona theory is to repudiate the accusation in most Japanese capture theory that Amelia was a US spy and that the US Gov't and the USN abandoned her to a terrible fate at the hands of the pro-Axis Japanese military. Amelia was a pacifist and definitely not a spy. The US Gov't and USN knew nothing other than the flight went missing near Howland Island. The Orona theory speculation about the spy hoax incorporates the current Japanese capture theory; Marshallese saw the fliers, US WWII Marine veterans saw an airplane that looked like Amelia's plane, and she was seen on Saipan. The hoax did influence the thinking if the IJN in turning from a defensive strategy to an aggressive offensive strategy, which is what Tojo's army wanted for the conquest of China and the Asia Pacific. The speculation applies especially to Yamamoto who formulated the Pearl Harbor attack plan.

  11. #101
    Join Date
    May 2015
    Location
    Hertfordshire
    Posts
    460
    Has anyone thought of trying to ask Her where she landed?

  12. #102
    Join Date
    Aug 2004
    Posts
    1,658
    They did just the other day - she attacked them with her Zimmer frame.

  13. #103
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    Rochester, Kent
    Posts
    111
    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Maxwell View Post

    The US Gov't and USN knew nothing other than the flight went missing near Howland Island. The Orona theory speculation about the spy hoax incorporates the current Japanese capture theory; Marshallese saw the fliers, US WWII Marine veterans saw an airplane that looked like Amelia's plane, and she was seen on Saipan.
    I am missing something in all of this ?

    1) If this was a Japanese plot, why did they keep the faked Electra at Saipan for 7 years ? What purpose did it serve there ? If anyone examined it, then it would be discovered as a fake. In a war zone this facsimile would have served a useful service repainted as an airfield target decoy.

    2) Saipan was bombarded by US forces before the invasion, and the airfield battle lasted several days. Yet a hanger and a faked Electra survived apparently undamaged to be discovered by those US Marines.

    3) The US authorities ordered Earhart's plane to be destroyed, presumably to cover something up ? Yet your theory is that Earhart was not a spy and the US were not aware of her presence on Saipan. So why did the US want to destroy all evidence of what would have been a Japanese war crime ?

    4) Those Marine vet stories are contradictory. One says the Electra was destroyed in the hanger. A second claims it was towed out of the hanger with a jeep, covered in petrol then straffed by a passing P38 in full view of everyone. Hard to imagine a less secretive way of destroying evidence ?

  14. #104
    Join Date
    Jul 2012
    Location
    South Somerset
    Posts
    78
    I've read some nonsense in my time based on no evidence and this thread is on the podium.

  15. #105
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Finland
    Posts
    2,368
    If I started to look for the wreck I'd start doing circles around Howland Island. They missed it at the first try but could have run outa fuel after gotten a visual of the Island later.
    Attached Images Attached Images  
    If it looks good, it will fly good !
    -Bill Lear & Marcel Dassault


    http://max3fan.blogspot.com/

  16. #106
    Join Date
    Aug 2004
    Posts
    1,658
    The problem with that is that it is too simple and logical.

    Also if they splashed and sank then it makes the job of finding them too damn difficult given the depth of the Pacific around there. Whereas Gardner, Hull, Saipan etc. allow relatively easy searching and as a bonus make for a nice dramatic tale of treachery, bravery, government cover ups, pirates, etc. etc.

    Get with the program

  17. #107
    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    Where you wish you were.
    Posts
    9,241
    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Maxwell View Post
    Amelia was a pacifist and definitely not a spy.
    I don't have any knowledge of her politics, but I'd be willing to bet if she was asked by FDR, (who she publically supported in his 1936 reelection bid...some say as quid pro-quo to keep her lover, Gene Vidal, in his job as head of the Bureau of Air Commerce) she would have done it. Also, FDR had the Department of the Interior build a landing strip on Howland Island for her trip...so that also may have played into a decision.

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Maxwell View Post
    US WWII Marine veterans saw an airplane that looked like Amelia's plane, and she was seen on Saipan.
    Again, I'm not a big fan of a layman's recognition skills. Twin engine-twin tailed aircraft...especially if wrecked, could have been of the 119 production Ki-56s ( a modified Lockheed 14 produced by Kawasaki and Tachikawa) or even one of the 30 Lockheed-built aircraft imported before the war. That's especially possible if the island was occupied by the Japanese Army since they operated the type.

    Heck, if you squint just a little, a Mitsubishi G3M (Nell) of the IJN could look like one. If the IJN was on the island, that becomes a likely lookalike.

    Also, AE was a big celebrity.
    Why wouldn't the Marines talk?
    They were short-term enlistees, most were looking forward to getting out of the service as soon as the war was over, so they wouldn't have been persuaded to stay silent for career concerns.
    And it's unlikely the threat of going to a military jail would have worked, a trial would have been public record and anyone sent to jail for telling America what happened to "Lady Lindy", would have had a great story to tell "muckraking" journalist Drew Pearson...who wasn't afraid of politicians or military brass. You might know him as the guy who broke the story about Gen George Patton slapping the soldier.
    Last edited by J Boyle; 7th September 2016 at 23:24.
    There are two sides to every story. The truth is usually somewhere between the two.

  18. #108
    Join Date
    Aug 2016
    Posts
    72
    Quote Originally Posted by otis View Post
    I am missing something in all of this ?

    1) If this was a Japanese plot, why did .....

    I don't have evidence to answer your question. But my speculation on each item you've ask about:

    1) Amelia lived until late 1943. She was kept on Roi-Namur and wasn't transferred to the prison on Saipan until after the Battle of Midway 1942 but certainly after Yamamoto's death in '43. The IJN kept her safe on Roi-Namur. But after Midway, the IJN influence waned and the IJA rescinded the safeguard orders Yamamoto and IJN admirals had in place to protect her. I speculate that part of the IJN deal with the IJA was the IJN could keep Amelia and any evidence of spying as insurance in the event Japan lost the war. If Amelia was healthy and sound of mind then perhaps a few junior officers would escape the gallows.Yamamoto knew in advance that his navy could not destroy the USN and that Japan would lose the war. He chose to attempt to destroy the US fleets and die with his loyal sailors doing so rather than wait for the assassin's bullet. He may have used the spy hoax as an excuse to go all in on the attack plans but he realized early on that the IJA spy allegation was hoax. So the fake "spy"plane was kept as well thinking Amelia would survive the war and be repatriated. Marines on Saipan saw the fake plane and Marines at Roi-Namur (1944) found the barracks quarters fitted "for a woman" (Amelia) and a diary. The diary disappears of course. This is my speculation.

    2) The USAAF would need a airfield to continue the long range bombing campaign. Bombing the airfield and hangers were purposely avoided. Japanese defenses at the airfield had already been eliminated with fighter aircraft and ground forces.

    3) What the US wanted to cover up was that military capable equipment (especially aircraft engines) sales had been made to Japan prior the 1938 embargo. After Pearl Harbor ..a political nightmare. When Lockheed verified the serial numbers as part of the sales, the US gov't ordered the plane destroyed.

    4) Maybe more than one similar looking plane was destroyed?

  19. #109
    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    Where you wish you were.
    Posts
    9,241
    I've got to question the logic behind #3.
    Sales before the embargo were obviously legal...being before the embargo!
    In 1938, Douglas sold a DC-3 license to them, Likewise Beech sold Model 17 license. In 1938, NAA sold a license for the NA-16 (fixed gear Yale/Harvard predecessor) trainer to a Japanese trading company.
    This is in addition to the Lockheed 14.
    Aside from that, in late 1939, Douglas sold Japan the sole DC-4E, the triple tailed more complex airliner that was eventually replaced by the DC-4 that we know.
    All this was public knowledge at the time.
    Practically speaking...The democrats were still in control of Congress, so they wouldn't have made too much trouble for Truman.
    Also, a presidential election wouldn't be held until 1948....so I fail to see how the administration would have been afraid of political fallout from sales that were legal at the time.

    -So why in the world would the US government go to great lengths to cover up AE's death?
    At worst the Japanese were to blame and they weren't very popular in the US, given Pearl Harbor and the resulting war. The American public would have no problem accepting that.

    -What was the "similar looking plane"? Did the Japanese make replicas of the Lockheed 10 as part of their plan?

    -The Americans would have bombed the air base regardless. They had thousands of SeeBees waiting to do their thing...like they did on many other islands.
    They would have bombed the airfield to prevent the IJN from attacking the American fleet...no doubt remembering the lesson of the HMS Price of Wales and Repulse.
    Filling in bomb craters would have been a cheap price to pay to keep the fleet safe.

    BTW: As you know Yamamoto didn't go down with his ships...he was targeted by a massively successful P-38 mission.

    Again, when explanations require a logic bending story (or four)...that means the conspiracies are wrong.
    Last edited by J Boyle; 8th September 2016 at 05:38.
    There are two sides to every story. The truth is usually somewhere between the two.

  20. #110
    Join Date
    Aug 2016
    Posts
    72
    I thought the sales embargo went into effect in 1938. How coiuld Douglas sell a DC-4 to Japan in 1939?
    Your timeline is mixed up..Battle of Saipan june 1944...Us presidential election Nov. 1944.

    Your confused. The US government did not go to lengths to cover up AE's death. The US government and USN believed she died after ditching near Howland Island. Destroying an American plane at As Lito field had nothing to do with Amelia Earhart's death. As stated earlier, the government didn't want John Q. Voter to be reminded that military capable sales to Japan did take place not too many years before Pearl Harbor. Scratching their heads for awhile, I'm sure, but the US military sorted out the serial numbers to ensure it wasn't Amelia's plane. Why NR16020 was painted on the wing they ask...some kind of ruse they figured... to deflect air attack? Close inspection of the paint and font style would probably reveal immediately that it was not Amelia's 10E if in was in fact a 10E and not a 14.

  21. #111
    Join Date
    Aug 2004
    Posts
    1,658
    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Maxwell View Post
    I thought the sales embargo went into effect in 1938. How coiuld Douglas sell a DC-4 to Japan in 1939?
    Here

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Douglas_DC-4E

    No secret and known since 1939.

  22. #112
    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    Where you wish you were.
    Posts
    9,241
    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Maxwell View Post
    I thought the sales embargo went into effect in 1938. How coiuld Douglas sell a DC-4 to Japan in 1939?
    Your timeline is mixed up..Battle of Saipan june 1944...Us presidential election was in Nov.
    Yes....I thought the alleged US subterfuge occupied in 1945...after the 1944 election and FDR's death in the spring. It's hard to keep all the theories straight.
    There are two sides to every story. The truth is usually somewhere between the two.

  23. #113
    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    Where you wish you were.
    Posts
    9,241
    Quote Originally Posted by J Boyle View Post
    Yes....I thought the alleged US subterfuge occupied in 1945...after the 1944 election and FDR's death in the spring. It's hard to keep all the theories straight.
    I still don't see a conspiracy in selling goods before the embargo...that lack of logic tends to turn me off the mental gymnastics conspiracy buffs would like us to do.

    Ultimately, it's getting harder to humour them and their rantings.
    There are two sides to every story. The truth is usually somewhere between the two.

  24. #114
    Join Date
    Aug 2016
    Posts
    72
    The terms conspiracy and subterfuge continue to be used. The more traditional Japanese capture theory ( Amelia was a spy, captured, then executed and FDR knew all about it and refused to help her) continues to dominate the thinking of many posts. Destroying a look-a-like plane at As Lito was not subterfuge or part of a conspiracy on the part of the US government. Dozens of airplanes were destroyed during the end days of the Pacific war. Many just pushed off the deck overboard deep six. In the case of the fake plane there was a political decision made to destroy all pre embargo equipment. If and when found. What would the FDR administration do with it? Bring it back home and say to voters -oh with the election coming up I wanted to remind you I sold these planes with the powerful motors to the Japanese a few years before Pearl Harbor-. The US had no idea or knowledge of the spy hoax. The hoax was totally closed within the Japanese military.

  25. #115
    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    Where you wish you were.
    Posts
    9,241
    That theory only makes sense if you know little of Japanese aviation.
    Their engines weren't copies of American types, and pre-embargo, Japan had access to worldwide technology...same as Germany. Wasn't the prototype Bf-109 powered by a Rolls? Anyone in the UK call for anyone's head?
    Col the Master of Sempill didn't go to prison his work for the Japanese. If the UK government didn't have the stomach to prosecute a Lord for spying, I don't thinking American public would harvested to go after a well regarded President for allowing legal sales to Japan during the depression when firms were striving to survive.

    I know of no proof that FDR was worried, he was a shoe-in for reelection, and as I said, the Congress, media and the public weren't in the mood to re-hash the war.

    Again, the license deals were public knowledge and unless there is a period news story saying FDR was in deep trouble, it sounds more like a excuse for a conspiracy as opposed to a rational course of action taken by a still popular President who was leading his country to victory.
    Last edited by J Boyle; 9th September 2016 at 03:48.
    There are two sides to every story. The truth is usually somewhere between the two.

  26. #116
    Join Date
    Aug 2016
    Posts
    72
    Let's reset the entire thread. The Orona image is public knowledge. Anyone can use it to create their own theory. So forget the WWII marine vets, the Marshallese, and the folks on Saipan. And of course my own wildly extreme hard to believe theory. The attached screen shot is used to illustrate the much simpler theory: AE and FN crash landed in the lagoon of Orona and were knocked unconscious on impact and drowned as the plane sank. Is that simple enough? Click image for larger version. 

Name:	LandingatHull.jpg 
Views:	45 
Size:	33.9 KB 
ID:	248063The copra workers never witnessed the crash because they were some 5 miles from the crash point and the prevailing wind kept the engine noise at an extremely low level. The workers were not scanning the horizon for passing planes. Red is the 157º heading and yellow is the 090º final into the prevailing wind to the crash/splash point.

    This is now a simple crash and sink theory. It doesn't make us dizzy or give us headaches to think about. It might still give some a laugh. You would still have to have faith in Johnson's 487 report. This is now even better than the original crash and sink because we have a point to search and can quickly say yay or nay.

  27. #117
    Join Date
    Aug 2003
    Location
    cambridge uk
    Posts
    6,377
    Can someone just go down with a camera PLEASE

  28. #118
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Posts
    209
    Well TIGHAR are in the Daily Mail again today... so their theory MUST be the truth.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...-suggests.html

    Yeah - and they don't just have evidence... they've have EERIE evidence.

  29. #119
    Join Date
    Aug 2004
    Posts
    1,658
    Oh well funds have been getting low at Chez TIGHAR so there was a need for recycling all the "evidence". It's sort of like that old kid's flick The Never Ending Story

    One day they might surprise us all .......... one day.

  30. #120
    Join Date
    Aug 2008
    Posts
    742
    Blimey they are bringing in submarines now! How the heck do they bankroll all this?

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

 

- Part of the    Network -

KEY AERO AVIATION NEWS

MAGAZINES

AVIATION FORUM

SHOP

 

WEBSITES