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Thread: Another Amelia Theory of Disappearance

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    Another Amelia Theory of Disappearance

    The Orona-Saipan theory speculates that Amelia Earhart water crash landed in the lagoon at Orona and survived. Later Amelia Earhart and Fred Noonan were taken captive by Imperial Japanese Army pirates. The speculation is based primarily on the Google Earth 2006 image of Orona in which the faint outlines of an airframe is visible. I discovered this image in 2008. The Orona theory attempts to link together some of the elements of other popular theories. It is of course speculation as are all the other theories of disappearance. Orona (Hull Island) was a subject of investigation since the disappearance and several ideas and a book have been written about the island being a possible place to look. Rather than post the whole idea here I'll post a link to Pacific Wrecks which has kindly allowed me to post the theory there. It's Pacific Wrecks- under Wrecks and losses. The complete theory is at my site www.Aquariusradar.com.

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    The Orona-Saipan Theory attempts to incorporate the stories of USMC veterans and Marshallese citizens of the era. It is different than other Japanese capture theories because the spy element is completely different. Amelia was not a US spy; after kidnap she was used as a ploy in a spy hoax that the Imperial Japanese Army(IJA) implemented and directed at the Imperial Japanese Navy(IJN). The theory relies on the research of other groups and takes those parts of other theories that fit the Orona idea. Cherry picking -sure. These folks have put in some effort. Example: both TIGHAR and Dave Billings PNG New Britain include some convincing long range endurance research. Example: the Fred Goerning chronicles and the stories of Marshallese citizens about Amelia being in the Marshall Islands seem to have not changed over the decades. Included in the Orona theory is the assumption Amelia was paraded about Jaluit and Mili Atoll as part of the spy hoax such that lots of people could testify they saw the spies. The hoax was complex and included a fake L10E at As Lito field at Saipan. Mysteries that have people completely disappearing most often have other people involved. I consider the Orona image a clue; not evidence

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Maxwell View Post
    Included in the Orona theory is the assumption Amelia was paraded about Jaluit and Mili Atoll as part of the spy hoax such that lots of people could testify they saw the spies.
    So there should be lots of verified sightings, if not photos. Where are they?


    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Maxwell View Post
    The hoax was complex and included a fake L10E at As Lito field at Saipan.
    How was that done?
    I know of no 10s on the Japanese civil register. The 30 model 14s weren't exported to Japan until 1938.

    I'm all for alternate theories to TIGHAR's condescending and rude "She MUST have come down here, and if you don't agree you're a fool" attitude.
    There are two sides to every story. The truth is usually somewhere between the two.

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    I may regret asking this .. but, does the theory account for why neither John Jones nor any of the laborers under his charge at the Burns Philp Company operation on Hull ever reported Earhart's plane flying overhead and/or ditching in the lagoon? Or how they missed both the stranded American fliers as well as the "band of Japanese Army pirates" who presumably came ashore to take them captive? Does it account for how the plane wreck could be visible almost 70 years later on Google Earth, yet be hidden from the aircrew on the two US Navy observation planes circling above its waters for 45 minutes to an hour while their flight leader landed to speak with administrator Jones just eight days after Amelia and Fred's disappearance?

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    I have it on very good authority that there are at least 15 and more probably 30 Amelia Earharts buried in wax paper within crates , near a famous airport. I can't reveal more until the end of September.

    In Memory of:
    Flt Lt Tony Hill who successfully photographed a small "Würzburg radar" at Bruneval. 5th Dec 1941

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    Verified sightings? Something like a Marshallese native reporting to a local newspaper that they witnessed seeing the fliers? I don't know if verified is the term to apply but Marshallese society certainly believe those who talked about seeing the fliers in the custody of the Japanese military. Not any cameras on these remote atolls to take pictures. The kidnapping and spy hoax was entirely within the military as the IJA plotted to prove to the IJN that the US was spying on Japan's military buildup in the Pacific. The spy parade on Milli was tightly controlled to give the impression the spies crashed at Mill and picked up by fishing boat. How else could the fliers possibly get there if not by crashing their spy plane on the reef?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tony Hill View Post
    I can't reveal more until the end of September.
    I hear it will be revealed exclusively in the next Britain at War.
    There are two sides to every story. The truth is usually somewhere between the two.

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    Now now, that is NOT what I said
    In Memory of:
    Flt Lt Tony Hill who successfully photographed a small "Würzburg radar" at Bruneval. 5th Dec 1941

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Deth View Post
    I may regret asking this .. but, does the theory account for why neither John Jones nor any of the laborers under his charge at the Burns Philp Company operation on Hull ever reported Earhart's plane flying overhead and/or ditching in the lagoon? Or how they missed both the stranded American fliers as well as the "band of Japanese Army pirates" who presumably came ashore to take them captive? Does it account for how the plane wreck could be visible almost 70 years later on Google Earth, yet be hidden from the aircrew on the two US Navy observation planes circling above its waters for 45 minutes to an hour while their flight leader landed to speak with administrator Jones just eight days after Amelia and Fred's disappearance?
    Well you may come to regret displaying what is rare commodity in the whole Earhart business which is citing reality to clarify a situation. Earhart's disappearance is now the stuff of legend and as that famous line goes "when the legend becomes fact, print the legend" so despite your laudable effort I suspect that it will have little impact.

    You left out mention of the other slight problem which is that Hull Island was settled continuously up until the middle 1960s and one wonders why none of the people who lived on the island somehow missed seeing the plane wreck in the lagoon - a reasonably sheltered spot for fishing etc.

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    Wouldn't it have made more sense for the Japanese to have used Earhart as a propaganda tool or a barganing chip rather than trying to drum up some sort of elaborate hoax?

    Did Earhart have a dinghi? Maybe they washed ashore rather than crash landed on it?

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    Quote Originally Posted by J Boyle View Post
    I hear it will be revealed exclusively in the next Britain at War.
    Although, she wasn't British, and we weren't at war in 1937, well nothing major.
    Engine Failure:.... A condition which occurs when all fuel tanks mysteriously become filled with air.

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    Details, details, details.
    Remember, were talking about the media/publishing industry.

    If still confused, please refer to the "Big Spitfire News" thread.
    There are two sides to every story. The truth is usually somewhere between the two.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hampden98 View Post
    Wouldn't it have made more sense for the Japanese to have used Earhart as a propaganda tool or a barganing chip rather than trying to drum up some sort of elaborate hoax?
    Quite. To say nothing of the positive press Japan would have received by rescuing her. The only reason they logically would have had for keeping or killing her is if they had something to hide. Did they? Did she stumble on some major base or where the Japanese where they were expected to be?

    The trouble with conspiracy theories is they are usually circuitous...whereas most of the time people's/government actions are more direct.
    Any theory that requires a Heath Robinson-like explanation is too clever for its own good.

    Rather like TIGHAR wanting us to believe the only thing poor castaway Amelia dragged onto the island, the only thing she thought to bring from the Lockheed, was a jar of freckle cream. Or that she was the only woman on the island who wore shoes. Or a piece of perspex could have only come from that aircraft.
    There are two sides to every story. The truth is usually somewhere between the two.

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    Conspiracy theories are a bit like strings, every yoyo has one...

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    Never regret asking questions about speculation. Speculation is about thinking. Speculation is not believing some absolute truth. Good detectives speculate; Sherlock Holmes speculated. Yes, Mr. Jones and the copra workers would appear to squash any real reasoning to continue speculation. But wait. Remember the conditions of the times; the Japanese Army pro-Axis forces were preparing the rampages in Southeast Asia and China that ensued only shortly after the flier's disappearance. So pre-meditated murder was on the minds of the pirates when they came to Hull Island and may have acted to intimidate Jones and his workers. I mean really intimidate; murder for example. The remains found on Gardner Island years later could easily be a copra worker from Hull purposely murdered to intimidate Jones and the others. Having been on Gardner with their listening post, the pirates new the body had to be removed from Hull in order to avoid suspicion and Gardner would be a good diversion if the body were ever found there. As we now know, the plot worked very well. So speculation can continue?

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    Yep speculation is a wonderful tool for investigators but I still can't see the workers on Hull Island somehow completely missing a twin-engined aircraft that splashes into their lagoon then keeping shtum until the middle 1960s because they're afraid the Japanese are going to come and kill them all.

    Also and on the broader level of the Japanese in the Pacific their activities on their mandated islands was pretty well known in general if not in particular and the islands like Gardner and Hull were actually not in the Japanese mandated area but were a part of the British Empire - in fact they were never occupied by the Japanese. The last additions to the BE if I remember correctly.

    Hull was the site of a continuing settlement albeit struggling with water supply problems while Gardner was an on again off again copra venture because of the water issue. The skeleton found on Gardner has a number of possible sources - it could have been a crew member from the Norwich City (11 people were killed when the ship ran aground), a native fisherman who was cast up there, but one thing it wasn't was a skinny white female - even TIGHAR seem to have walked away from that claim by now.

    But if the Japanese had abducted and murdered a native copra worker from Hull why take the body to Gardner? Wouldn't it have been simpler just to take it out to sea and tie some scrap iron to it and throw it overboard - given the depth of the Pacific around those islands then it would have disappeared without a trace.

    Which also brings to mind the fact that that part of the Phoenix Islands was solidly in the hands of the Allies throughout the war - Gardner even had a US Coast Guard base so why would the natives be afraid of reporting the abduction or for that matter the wreck on Hull. So my speculation is that your theory doesn't work.

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    And the coordinates of the alleged wreck on the 2006 Google Earth image are?

    Steve
    75-Stay alive, 76-Radio tricks, 77-Going to Heaven.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bradleygolding View Post
    And the coordinates of the alleged wreck on the 2006 Google Earth image are?

    Steve
    The location co-ordinates are at http://aquariusradar.com/AmeliaEarhartsplane.html

    The IJA listening post was set up on Gardner Island in order to monitor the activities of the National Geographic solar eclipse on Canton Island conducted by an international team of scientists headed up by Samuel Mitchell. The eclipse occurred 3 1/2 weeks earlier. More importantly to monitor the HMS Wellington and USS Avocet and the US/UK dust up and Mexican standoff over who really was in charge of the Phoenix Islands. The IJA sought to find messages that could be used as evidence of spying or messages the IJA propaganda machine could pervert to imply spying by the allies. The dust settled at Canton Island and UK/US sorted things out. The serendipitous intercept of the downed fliers weak and garbled radio calls alerted the pirates and IJA headquarters learning of the intercept set the spy hoax operation in motion. Later, after the pirates had left with both kidnapped flyers, Navy air searchers at Gardner found "evidence of recent habitation".

    Orona (Hull Island) Is about 4 statute miles east-west and a gliding plane with low power setting could possibly crash water land and not be detected by the majority of copra workers.

    Over the decades of on-off again habitation by native Pacific Islanders, why would they ever journey over three miles from there home base on the tree lined Western side of the island to the Eastern side when the fishing was just as good right out the back door of the home? After about a decade, the aircraft was so well hidden by sand and marine growth that no islander would recognize it even looking directly upon it from their fishing dingy.

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    How did she come to be in "Night at the museum" ?

    I think this really explains it all though : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0uoFsfbH4Y0
    Last edited by ~Alan~; 30th August 2016 at 10:09.
    Engine Failure:.... A condition which occurs when all fuel tanks mysteriously become filled with air.

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    As a theory, it is no better or worse than the next one.

    Without evidence, it cant be proven one way or another, which is where most such theories founder. TIGHAR for all their perceived inadequacies have spent considerable time and effort trying to prove their own pet theory, without, it must be said, any luck so far.

    If there is an aircraft in that position, it should be easy enough to prove one way or the other. Perhaps time will tell.

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    I'd just point out that Sherlock Holmes didn't speculate: he deduced from the evidence. Only after everything else had been disproved would he say that whatever else remained, however improbable, must be true. Speculation, or in this case perhaps invention, is not evidence. I suspect it may be impossible to prove that Earhart's aircraft simply disappeared into the Pacific, but such contrary indications as exist are far from proof otherwise.

    "After about a decade, the aircraft was so well hidden by sand and marine growth that no islander would recognize it even looking directly upon it from their fishing dingy." Yet it is now, many more decades on, visible from a satellite? Pull t'other one.

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    "Wouldn't it have been simpler just to take it out to sea and tie some scrap iron to it and throw it overboard"

    Electra U/C leg? Perhaps Pooh's bouncy friend was onto something when he spotted one of those bobbing around in the Pacific......
    Why be your own worse critic, that's what the forum is for.

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    If I could get a knowledgable aviation expert to do a critical analysis of the Orona image, I might have some evidence. But so far, the experts have avoided doing so.

    I repeat myself: some students of the mystery think that the activities of the Japanese within the mandated territory was known. That's wrong. The allies did not know anything about the Pearl Harbor attack armada activities that included Japanese vessels from the main home islands and from the heart of the mandated territory Truk Lagoon.

    The location of the aircraft: S 4.4986º W 172.1575
    Last edited by Tom Maxwell; 31st August 2016 at 03:31.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Maxwell View Post
    ...But so far, the experts have avoided do so...
    They certainly have here.

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    Quote Originally Posted by stuart gowans View Post
    "Wouldn't it have been simpler just to take it out to sea and tie some scrap iron to it and throw it overboard"

    Electra U/C leg? Perhaps Pooh's bouncy friend was onto something when he spotted one of those bobbing around in the Pacific......
    Now there's a real film scenario.

    The dastardly Japanese Pirates (AKA the yellow horde) grab an u/c leg of Amelia's Lockheed which has plunged into the Hull Island lagoon in front of a bunch of stunned Polynesians. They then grab some unidentified copra plantation worker and hit him over the head in full view of the rest of the workforce and his boss. This is to let them know that they mean business about kidnapping the brave and still slightly stunned Amelia and Fred, when they tell the Polynesian witnesses they must say nothing.

    Then they take the by now deceased Polynesian and tie him to the u/c leg and sail off to Gardner Island where instead of simply chucking him and the leg overboard in the really deep water (about 3000 fathoms on average) they leave the u/c leg and the body on the Gardner Island reef just near the wreck of the Norwich City in plain (pardon the pun) view where a couple of months later it's going to attract the attention of Harry Maude and his off-sider Eric Bevington who snaps a pic of the island without realising that he has captured on his box Brownie the u/c leg sitting high and dry.

    Then young Eric, who appears to have been less than a stellar observer fails to see neither the u/c leg and the still attached tire, nor the remains of the unknown Hull Islander and files the pic away in his album of Imperial happy snaps, where a half-century or later the ever deductive modern day Sherlock Holmes Ric Gillespie's wife who is looking at it for the zillionth time, yells at Ric "Ric! Ric! Ric! - is that microscopic dot a fly speck or could it be an u/c leg, or are you just happy to see me?" Ric now alerted to all sorts of strange revelations grabs the photograph and his trusty Sherlock Holmes extra large magnifying glass and screams "Pat! Pat! Pat! do you know what I think this is?" and she replies "I just told you didn't I, and come to think of it while I have your attention why aren't you out somewhere raising more money?". And the rest is history.

    The fly speck goes into the history books and Wikipedia as the Bevington Object and clear proof that Amelia and Fred crash landed on the reef at Gardner island rather than in the Hull Island lagoon and so after all these years the dastardly plot of the fiendishly clever Japanese Pirates still remains a secret until in the 21st century a glance at a satellite image of the Hull Island lagoon allows another intrepid seeker of truth to come up with the real low down on where the Earhart Electra lies

    Full fathom five thy father lies;
    Of his bones are coral made;
    Those are pearls that were his eyes:
    Nothing of him that doth fade,
    But doth suffer a sea-change
    Into something rich and strange.
    Sea-nymphs hourly ring his knell:
    Ding-dong.
    Hark! now I hear them—Ding-dong, bell
    . (or words to that effect)

    Ric Gillespie shuts down TIGHAR and finally concedes defeat and he and his observant but sadly deceived wife disappear into the history books. But is the end or just a new beginning? Only time will tell .......

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    I suspect since the leader/founder or the group manages to get himself paid about $200,000 a year, the group will never be voluntarily shut down.
    There are two sides to every story. The truth is usually somewhere between the two.

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    What the heck is a u/c leg? And what does it have to do with the Orona theory. I get the impression that forum members want to make the Nikumaroro and Orona theory one and the same. Gentlemen, no one is asking you to believe-just think about the idea. If you want to continue to beat up the TIGHAR organization there is most likely a thread for that purpose. The poetry? What does it mean? No solicitation for donation and I too don't like the TIGHAR management. By the way, the TIGHAR was informed in 2010 about the Orona image. TIGHAR rejected the idea without hesitation citing their own true science as evidence. So much for evidence.

    TIGHAR has done a few worthwhile research endeavors. The long endurance capability-based mainly on Johnson's 487 report. Another example is the Miami photo showing but one rear window on the starboard side. This actually supports the Orona idea. USMC Ford in his statements about seeing Amelia's plane at As Lito field on Saipan as having two windows at the rear "just like Amelia's plane" leads to my speculation about a fake plane as part of the spy hoax as the real aircraft had but one window when it left the US.
    Last edited by Tom Maxwell; 31st August 2016 at 03:27.

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    Tom, is the long endurance capability (based mainly on Johnson's 487 report) information available on the web? I would very much like to read it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Maxwell View Post
    What the heck is a u/c leg?
    U/C = undercarriage leg.

    The thing which the Bevington Object so beloved of TIGHAR was claimed to be and which was photographed by Eric Bevington in 1937, albeit without him being aware that there right in front of him was the u/c leg of an aircraft. The reality is that this is a tiny little dot on a very small black and white photo.

    This tiny dot was found by Pat Thrasher (AKA Mrs Gillespie) on the photo and has since been conflated by TIGHAR and their resident photo analyst Jeff Glickman to be the undercarriage leg of the Earhart Lockheed Electra that was jammed into the coral on the spot just north of the Norwich City wreck just before the rest of the aircraft got washed off the reef 6 days after its emergency landing. Well that's what they claim anyway.

    Whereas you are claiming that the aircraft came down in the Hull Island lagoon in full view of the resident work force and the skeleton found on Gardner was in fact the remains of an islander kidnapped from Hull by the Japanese Pirates to scare the bejesus out of the islanders so they wouldn't blab about the Japanese being there and then dumped on Gardner Island (God alone knows why). If you're confused just think how the rest of us feel.

    And the poem just seemed appropriate because it's all getting a bit Shakespearean.

    Last edited by Malcolm McKay; 31st August 2016 at 07:27.

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    I have done a lot of research over the years...even committing 1/2 a day** of a 1 1/2 day, once in a lifetime holiday visit to London, from Australia, to the PRO at Kew rather than to "touristy" things. Over a period of years we researched a book, on a certain topic which we refused to publish because although the research categorically disproved all of the current theories, we could not offer concrete evidence of our alternative and we felt that to publish would simply be seen a "sour grapes" towards the one or two Authors still alive whose theories were, to be blunt, demonstrably wrong. Very much a "42" type Chat Show spot.

    In my profession I do research every day and have done for 30 years.

    Now I say all of this for one reason and one reason alone, particularly in the context of the current discussion. The point is this: The overridingly common error made in "research" is that of establishing a proposition/theory and then setting out to prove it. Almost no-one in the current case has set out to find out what happened to Amelia. They have done some preparatory research, formed a theory and moved heaven, earth and suspension of disbelief, to try to prove it.
    The almost universally succumbed too danger in this, in my opinion, is that any evidence which points away from their version is minimised, marginalised and intentionally or unintentionally (let's be kind) ignored.

    This ends up with what I call "The Sir Humphrey Effect" --- " Something HAS to be done, THIS is something, therefore IT has to be done"

    Respectfully,

    Darryl
    (who has none but a passing interest in this particular mystery)


    **BTW, a half day does not sound much but I had exactly the catalogue numbers and positions of every document we needed before going. I collected a couple of hundred pages in that time to be examined and confirmed later. I also had time to get a considerable amount of documentation on Lanoe Hawker VC for his niece...a well spent 1/2 day.
    Last edited by Tony Hill; 31st August 2016 at 15:10.
    In Memory of:
    Flt Lt Tony Hill who successfully photographed a small "Würzburg radar" at Bruneval. 5th Dec 1941

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