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  • John K
    Rank 5 Registered User
    • Jul 2010
    • 311

    Originally posted by swerve View Post
    Time, time, time!

    We can order another 60 or 70 in 10 years. Or are you assuming that we'll still be broke then?
    Hopefully the economy will have recovered, but that does not mean it will translate into any more F35 orders does it? I don't get the impression that Green Dave cares that much about defence, beyond getting Britain out of Afghanistan by 2015. Capabilities lost will not be restored.

    Comment

    • Liger30
      Armed Forces supporter
      • Jul 2010
      • 901

      Hopefully the economy will have recovered, but that does not mean it will translate into any more F35 orders does it? I don't get the impression that Green Dave cares that much about defence, beyond getting Britain out of Afghanistan by 2015. Capabilities lost will not be restored.
      This is unfortunately most likely very, very, very true.

      The MOD will try to restore some of what it loses, but it will have to do so within a budget that will stay limited and insufficient, if not even smaller.
      So it won't have that much space of maneuver... And its enemies will be able to say: "You did without that for years, you can continue to do without that."

      And the worst is that it is not really a "Dave" or "Nick" or anyone else problem, but a general trend that continues from years and that undoubtedly will continue in the future too.
      That's why it is double important to save as much as possible in this SDSR. What's lost, most likely is lost definitively.

      Not the same, of course, for the only one special budget, International Aid. And not so for all the other budgets either. But for defence...? No one cares, it seems.
      "It is upon the navy under the providence of God that the safety, honour and welfare of this realm do chiefly attend." - King Charles II

      Comment

      • swerve
        Rank 5 Registered User
        • Jun 2005
        • 13612

        Originally posted by nocutstoRAF View Post
        Okay - but would expect some reaction from other countries in the region as Brazil edges to a modern navy with home built CATOBAR carrier with 24 Rafale M (as a best guess as the F-X2 competition is still on-going), which appears to be Brazil's long term strategy, even if the only reactions are to try to try to acquire fairly modern air defence destroyer's.
        Again, why? They can't fight Brazil & win. The difference in wealth & population is too great. As I've already said, Brazil has no quarrels with any of them, no territorial claims, nothing.

        Consider again what I said about Canada, Mexico & the USA. Brazil has as much land, people & money as all its neighbours combined, & geographical advantages over most of them (e.g. some parts of Peru can only be reached via Brazil, unless you fly, or trek for weeks through the forest on foot & by canoe). The largest & richest of them uses Brazils aircraft carrier for training its naval pilots. Brazil sells weapons to most of them, & gives old weapons to the smaller & poorer ones. What is the point in reacting to a build up in Brazils navy? None of them reacted to Brazil buying a new carrier or putting upgraded Skyhawks on it.

        BTW, which countries do you see reacting? Argentina? It flies its carrier-capable fighters off Brazils carrier. Who else? So far, you've not named a country which you think might see a need to build up its navy to counter that of Brazil, or why.
        Last edited by swerve; 17th September 2010, 18:15.
        Juris praecepta sunt haec: honeste vivere, alterum non laedere, suum cuique tribuere.
        Justinian

        Comment

        • swerve
          Rank 5 Registered User
          • Jun 2005
          • 13612

          Originally posted by Colombamike View Post
          Hmmm...
          The Foudre/Siroco class were more expensive to operate (220 crew versus 160 for a Mistral LHD) and lack full flight deck.
          The most ageing ship (Foudre) is expected to be retired soon as the third BPC (Dixmude) enter in service (around late 2012).
          For "Sirocco", the answer is more difficult because this ship is more younger (1998).
          Tentatively, the french navy, to reduce operationnal cost, will be tempted to sold both ship at a another navy (maybe Argentine or ?Brazil? or Portugal or a south east asiatic navy ?)
          As I've already said, when Foudre was offered to Argentina, the Argentineans preferred to discuss French assistance in building new amphibious ships in Argentina. Portugal hasn't expressed any interest in a dedicated amphibious ship, but has planned for years to buy a new transport/supply ship with limited amphibious capability. Foudre wouldn't meet that requirement. Brazil is a possible customer, to replace a 50s-vintage LSD.

          Again, as I've said, I doubt the MN want to sell her. I suspect any sale would be very reluctant on the part of the MN, forced on it by politicians. Operational cost could be reduced by putting in reserve, & Dixmude will enable the LHDs to fully take over the training role of the now retired Jeanne d'Arc.

          Retiring both Foudre & Siroco would leave France with three ships to cover amphibious operations, training (including helicopters), & a hospital ship. That would be disastrous.
          Juris praecepta sunt haec: honeste vivere, alterum non laedere, suum cuique tribuere.
          Justinian

          Comment

          • nocutstoRAF
            Rank 5 Registered User
            • May 2010
            • 954

            While I do not expect Uruguay to be able to afford to upgrade their Navy and if they did it would be an additional small frigate or an OPV they do have two unresolved border disputes with Brazil.

            Brazil is cementing it's position as the pre-dominant power in South America, and other countries (primarily Venezuela) are also trying to increase their regional power base as well, and pragmatically if you are planning future capabilities then you have to be asking what happens in the future not what the situation is now, and if I was a second tier power like Venezuela, who is fairly anti-American/Europe, and I was watching Brazil being courted by US, UK, France and Italy I would be worried. However, Argentina appears to be more focused on the Antarctic and rehabilitating and regenerating their armed forces than military confrontation.
            If having a little knowledge is dangerous then I must be bloody deadly

            Comment

            • Super Nimrod
              Rank 5 Registered User
              • Dec 2005
              • 1053

              I think todays excellent news re the Oil find in the Falklands by Rockhopper Exploration may well have assisted the case for the continuation of the CVF program. It appears that we may be seeing the beginnings of a major new Oil province in Falklands waters and todays news won't have gone unnoticed at the UK treasury given the potential for serious inflow of significant funds for the next 50 odd years. Today might be the day that the story changed for CVF .
              Last edited by Super Nimrod; 17th September 2010, 20:35.

              Comment

              • Colombamike
                Rank 5 Registered User
                • Nov 2009
                • 130

                bof
                maybe only 60 billion ( or $ ?) of oil reserve
                likely to be "extracted" in the next 10/15 year, nothing more....
                not a revolution for the british defence

                and most of the benefits taken by privates company....
                Visit my blog on news about all combat fleet of the world !
                http://combatfleetoftheworld.blogspot.com/

                Comment

                • Super Nimrod
                  Rank 5 Registered User
                  • Dec 2005
                  • 1053

                  I think you need to do the math again mate. Its massively higher than that based upon the potential reserves projected by the BGS
                  The average life of an oil field is about 40 years.
                  Last edited by Super Nimrod; 17th September 2010, 21:20.

                  Comment

                  • RVFHarrier
                    Rank 3 Registered User
                    • May 2010
                    • 105

                    Nimrod doesn't mean that the oil drilled from the Falklands will give us so much money that we can afford to buy every piece of military hardware we want, he means that the military hardware that we needed before will become an absolute necessity (especially CVF) since any major discovery of oil is likely to re-ignite patriotic fervour in Argentina.

                    About half a year ago now people were, admittedly preemptively, bracing for a second war when Argentina started talking about a blockade of the area; while war is far from imminent, it's an ever present and intermittently volatile/docile possibility.

                    If both Carriers are finished, the F-35 order goes ahead and no disasters occur in the testing of Sea Viper on the Type 45s, I can see absolutely no plausible scenario in which Argentina could summon any sort of zeal that would blind them so much as to attack the Falklands even if we end up finding a huge cavity of antihydrogen*. However, if CVF ends up being cancelled as well as most of our amphibious warfare capability (definitely a worst case scenario, thankfully also a highly unlikely one) then any attack on the Falklands by Argentina could well be terminal without intervention from France or the US etc.

                    I think what Nimrod was getting at was that with the Falklands issue popping up again, finishing both carriers is doubly important because it would both allow us to retake the islands if necessary but much more likely deter any sort of attack in the first place.


                    * The joke here being that antihydrogen sells for about $60 trillion per gram, compared to about $0.20 per kg of oil.
                    Last edited by RVFHarrier; 17th September 2010, 22:17.

                    Comment

                    • Colombamike
                      Rank 5 Registered User
                      • Nov 2009
                      • 130

                      Originally posted by Super Nimrod View Post
                      I think you need to do the math again mate. Its massively higher than that based upon the potential reserves projected by the BGS The average life of an oil field is about 40 years.
                      Up to 60 million barrels....(ok, for you, up to 120 ? or even 180 ?......)
                      http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...h-economy.html

                      yeah, with a current +/- 85 million barrels world consumption per day
                      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

                      Last edited by Colombamike; 17th September 2010, 22:18.
                      Visit my blog on news about all combat fleet of the world !
                      http://combatfleetoftheworld.blogspot.com/

                      Comment

                      • RVFHarrier
                        Rank 3 Registered User
                        • May 2010
                        • 105

                        Originally posted by Colombamike View Post
                        Up to 60 million barrels....(ok, for you, up to 120 ? or even 180 ?......)
                        http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...h-economy.html

                        yeah, with a current +/- 85 million barrels world consumption per day
                        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

                        m =/= b. It might only be one letter, but it results in you being out by a factor of 1000 and your post falling on its backside.

                        (Check the source, that you gave, again).

                        Comment

                        • Colombamike
                          Rank 5 Registered User
                          • Nov 2009
                          • 130

                          Hmmm,
                          2 easy questions for "RVFHarrier" & "Super Nimrod"

                          - Current World oil consumption per day (in million barrels)
                          - expected falklands oil reserve (in million barrels)

                          and check your source, again
                          Visit my blog on news about all combat fleet of the world !
                          http://combatfleetoftheworld.blogspot.com/

                          Comment

                          • RVFHarrier
                            Rank 3 Registered User
                            • May 2010
                            • 105

                            Well, as I tried to point out to you, the source that you gave - The Telegraph - lists the number as 60 thousand million. That number generally has nothing behind it, it is the telegraph afterall, but more conservative and realistic estimates put the number of barrels found and accessible so far at about 20 thousand million.

                            I fail to see how the current oil consumption of the world is relevent, it doesn't change the number of barrels that are down there.

                            If you're going to assert a point and attempt to use it to refute an observation made by someone else; you could atleast make sure your assertion has something to substantiate it, other than simple ignorance and misreading of the word 'billion' as 'million'.

                            Comment

                            • Liger30
                              Armed Forces supporter
                              • Jul 2010
                              • 901

                              20 billion barrels are already one hell of a lot. Not a new Saudi Arabia, but it would be a MASSIVE find.
                              If the oil reserve was to be closer to the 60 billions barrels, then the UK discovered a new Saudi Arabia.

                              And even if the amounts were to be smaller, it would still be a very considerable and much needed find.
                              North Sea oil won't last forever. Having other reserves in the Falklands is pure gold.
                              "It is upon the navy under the providence of God that the safety, honour and welfare of this realm do chiefly attend." - King Charles II

                              Comment

                              • swerve
                                Rank 5 Registered User
                                • Jun 2005
                                • 13612

                                Originally posted by RVFHarrier View Post
                                ...Argentina started talking about a blockade of the area....
                                Never happened. That was bad reporting.

                                Originally posted by RVFHarrier View Post
                                If ... no disasters occur in the testing of Sea Viper on the Type 45s,....
                                The latest test (a repeat of the very demanding one which previously failed) was completely successful. The minor modification to the missile worked.
                                Juris praecepta sunt haec: honeste vivere, alterum non laedere, suum cuique tribuere.
                                Justinian

                                Comment

                                • swerve
                                  Rank 5 Registered User
                                  • Jun 2005
                                  • 13612

                                  Originally posted by nocutstoRAF View Post
                                  While I do not expect Uruguay to be able to afford to upgrade their Navy and if they did it would be an additional small frigate or an OPV they do have two unresolved border disputes with Brazil.....
                                  So what? If Brazil wanted to use force to settle them, nothing Uruguay spent on its navy would make any difference at all. The Uruguayans know that. They make no preparations at all to defend their border with Brazil. It's an almost open border, which the locals don't need passports to cross (actually, that's true of many S. American borders).

                                  Portugal has a border dispute with Spain, BTW. Ireland used to claim all of Northern Ireland (the claim was written into its constitution), & still has a border dispute with the UK. That has not affected the military planning of Ireland, the UK, Spain or Portugal for many, many, years, & the same is true of all of Brazils borders.
                                  Juris praecepta sunt haec: honeste vivere, alterum non laedere, suum cuique tribuere.
                                  Justinian

                                  Comment

                                  • nocutstoRAF
                                    Rank 5 Registered User
                                    • May 2010
                                    • 954

                                    Yes I know that Uruguay can do nothing about Brazil if the was any problem. My comment is that if Uruguay was going to spend money on upgrading it Navy it would not be wasting money on an air defence destroyer, but instead buying a small frigate or a OPV for protecting the their EEZ, as they currently have two active and reserve frigate, with the active frigates ~40 years old even if they where acquired recently and 5 patrol boats, and they could likely do with something more modern, with the ability to carry a helicopter.

                                    I apologise if my point was not clear.
                                    If having a little knowledge is dangerous then I must be bloody deadly

                                    Comment

                                    • swerve
                                      Rank 5 Registered User
                                      • Jun 2005
                                      • 13612

                                      Sorry, I misunderstood. Yes, I agree that new OPVs, or perhaps patrol aircraft for EEZ protection, would be the most sensible way for Uruguay to spend any increase in the naval budget. Uruguay doesn't really need a navy, just a coastguard.
                                      Juris praecepta sunt haec: honeste vivere, alterum non laedere, suum cuique tribuere.
                                      Justinian

                                      Comment

                                      • Sintra
                                        Rank 5 Registered User
                                        • Aug 2007
                                        • 3851

                                        Originally posted by swerve View Post
                                        As I've already said, when Foudre was offered to Argentina, the Argentineans preferred to discuss French assistance in building new amphibious ships in Argentina. Portugal hasn't expressed any interest in a dedicated amphibious ship, but has planned for years to buy a new transport/supply ship with limited amphibious capability. Foudre wouldn't meet that requirement.
                                        Swerve

                                        The Portuguese Navy requirement for the "Navio Polivalente logistico" is for a 10500 tons classic LPD with a complement of 150 officers and enlisted personel capable of carrying 495 marines for 30 days, equiped with four heavy (EH101) helicopters and six landing crafts.
                                        The TCD Foudre is awfully close to the specifications for the NPL.

                                        http://ema.marinha.pt/PT/actividade/...C3%ADstico.pdf
                                        sigpic

                                        Comment

                                        • RacingMonk
                                          Rank 5 Registered User
                                          • Jul 2009
                                          • 63

                                          Jeepers...hasn't this thread got somewhat off topic?

                                          Comment

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