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  • Witcha
    Rank 5 Registered User
    • Jun 2010
    • 1241

    Only 8-9 885Ms is too little to replace all the Akulas, Oscars and Sierras. Is this class going to be supplemented with a smaller attack SSN sans VLS tubes like was speculated until a few years ago?

    Comment

    • JangBoGo
      Rank 5 Registered User
      • Jan 2011
      • 1506

      ^^
      its not even 8-9 if we take the article that Jo Asakara posted. It says 5 x pr.885M subs including Kazan (the 2nd ship). The lead one (pr.885) of the class is already out on sea trials which add up to make just 6 subs by 2021. Thats is a very low figure.

      Comment

      • TR1
        TR1
        http://tiny.cc/tp8kd
        • Oct 2010
        • 9817

        Originally posted by Witcha View Post
        Only 8-9 885Ms is too little to replace all the Akulas, Oscars and Sierras. Is this class going to be supplemented with a smaller attack SSN sans VLS tubes like was speculated until a few years ago?
        Cough, Akula is a ballistic missile sub .

        I have similar thoughts about the big nuclear boat replacement.
        There are around a dozen project 971 attack boats, the core of the fleet- but aside from them there are also 3 of the titanium 945 boats, and 4 late-build 671RTMK....that is around 20 nuclear attack boats alone! Add to that the 8 or so Anteiis, and we have close to 30 boats needing replacement sometime past 2020.

        I don't think there is any way the large 885s will be enough for this task alone, maybe they really do need to look at a smaller alternative to make up numbers.
        Unless the RuNavy is purposefully accepting lower numbers in exchange for the entire nuclear attack fleet being large and all-purpose, with diseal subs making up the deficit.

        However in the immediate period there is no problem, the nuclear attack boats are in good shape, and along with Anteiis are being modernized and extended with life. As the 885Ms trickle in they can start phasing out the older boats around 2020. The real issue will be the big stuff getting old by 2025.
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        • TR1
          TR1
          http://tiny.cc/tp8kd
          • Oct 2010
          • 9817

          http://bmpd.livejournal.com/211884.html#comments
          http://bmpd.livejournal.com/210786.html

          Photos from Russian-Chinese naval exercise happening right now.
          sigpic

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          • Jō Asakura
            多聞天
            • Jan 2011
            • 1302

            Originally posted by Witcha View Post
            Only 8-9 885Ms is too little to replace all the Akulas, Oscars and Sierras. Is this class going to be supplemented with a smaller attack SSN sans VLS tubes like was speculated until a few years ago?
            Not quite, you guys are mistaking the Soviet Navy's 'bastion' SSBN doctrine with the Russian Navy's roles. This doctrine was centred around maintaining a first or pre-emptive strike with SLBMs. In order to protect their SSBNs from USN SSNs (whose primary assignment was to shadow Soviet SSBN patrols, ensuring that if war broke out, the Soviet missile fleet could be destroyed before it could launch its missile arsenal). Hence the Soviet Navy had to guarantee that USN vessels would not be unable to reach these bastion sites- i.e. the Soviets had to keep Americans ships away from all Soviet territorial waters in a tactic called “sea denial.”

            This doctrine became entrenched in 1973, as the Soviets began to commission new Delta-class SSBN’s for the Atlantic Northern Fleet, USN NAVINT observers began to notice a change in their pattern of SSBN deployment. Rather than engaging in open-water patrols as was customary for missile boats, the Deltas, boats with the ability to strike American cities from 4,200 miles away, were being limited to patrols within the Barents Sea, where they were shielded by a layer of Soviet SSN’s and surface ships.

            Soviet sea denial plans dictated that the Sea of Japan, Greenland, and parts of the Northwest Pacific Basin would be blockaded to ensure the invulnerability of the Soviet SSBN fleet.

            Today's Russian Navy has no first/pre-emptive strike doctrine. The formidable and stealthy 'Borei' class are tasked with credible deterrence and can conduct open/blue water patrols without being restricted to bastions protected by SSNs, as their complement of RSM-56 (the most advanced SLBM in existence) with a range greater than 9,000 miles can strike anywhere in the World against heavily defended targets whilst remaining undetected (at least until it's too late).

            Hence, there is no longer any need for such a large number of Russian SSNs (as compared to Soviet Navy numbers) they are freed from SSBN 'bodyguard' duties. The 885M in particular, is a formidable blue water, area denial tool in itself (but I agree 5/6 is not enough, maybe a new SSK design will act as complement, especially as 885M weighs in @ nearly $3bn a pop!).
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            • El_Indigo
              Rank 5 Registered User
              • Jul 2006
              • 287

              A true succesor of Akula ..a dedicated hunter-killer submarine. Was in fact mentioned by the navy brass before in 2009. But I can't find that interview.

              All I can find is this.

              http://paralay.com/advanced.html

              Comment

              • Austin
                Rank 5 Registered User
                • Oct 2003
                • 6471

                They had disclosed last year that they are working on small ( 5000 - 6000 T ) SSN that would be mass produced in big numbers to replace the SSN fleet.

                Yasen wont be replacing any of the Akula or Oscar but would simply add to fleet strength , both Akula/Oscar will be modernised and that should increase the total operational life of the subs to 35 years as in the case of Delta.

                There is also no indication that Russia was moving away from Bastion strategy as thats the best bet to gurantee their SSBN safety irrespective of the new gen subs entering in.

                The problem with fleet size will only start appearing after 2025-2030 when modernised Akula and Oscar will need to be replaced and by that time the new 5th Gen SSN would see serial production.
                "A map does you no good if you don't know where you are"

                Comment

                • dionis
                  Rank 5 Registered User
                  • Sep 2004
                  • 1878

                  Originally posted by Jō Asakura View Post
                  Hence, there is no longer any need for such a large number of Russian SSNs (as compared to Soviet Navy numbers) they are freed from SSBN 'bodyguard' duties. The 885M in particular, is a formidable blue water, area denial tool in itself (but I agree 5/6 is not enough, maybe a new SSK design will act as complement, especially as 885M weighs in @ nearly $3bn a pop!).
                  What the hell are you talking about?

                  The Yasen, in today's dollars, is ~$1 billion / boat.

                  See the Lenta.ru article for 2 quotes putting them at about that much a piece. It's not a damn Zumlolwalt..

                  Comment

                  • Trident
                    Rank 5 Registered User
                    • May 2004
                    • 3965

                    To be honest I partly agree with Jō Asakura, Russia should be able to make do with 30 to 40 high-quality subs (+ a handful of special mission hulls) in total. 16 to 20 SSNs/SSGNs, 8 SSBNs and 8 to 12 SSKs sounds good to me, and if they can get production going smoothly (probably a better way to spend money than a new design) I see no reason why all of these SSNs/SSGNs could not be Yasen variants. If it's a sound basic design it will easily remain competitive long enough to have that kind of production run, as long as the build rate is reasonable.
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                    • Trident
                      Rank 5 Registered User
                      • May 2004
                      • 3965

                      Originally posted by Austin View Post
                      Kazan too does not have pumpjet , check the picture of Kazan from Malachite

                      I wouldn't put too much stock in the accuracy of these plaques, IIRC Yury Dolgorukiy was depicted without a pump jet too.
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                      • JangBoGo
                        Rank 5 Registered User
                        • Jan 2011
                        • 1506

                        Originally posted by Trident View Post
                        I wouldn't put too much stock in the accuracy of these plaques, IIRC Yury Dolgorukiy was depicted without a pump jet too.
                        If I'm not wrong Borei was displayed with a pumpjet.

                        Comment

                        • Austin
                          Rank 5 Registered User
                          • Oct 2003
                          • 6471

                          To have a pump jet or not have one is not really a relevant issue , both have their pluses and minues , Screws have not become obsolete and there is still the fine art of making a good screw.

                          If Yasen could achieve noise level comparable to Sea Wolf or Virgnia then it would really be a great achievement for them.
                          "A map does you no good if you don't know where you are"

                          Comment

                          • JangBoGo
                            Rank 5 Registered User
                            • Jan 2011
                            • 1506

                            Originally posted by El_Indigo View Post
                            A true succesor of Akula ..a dedicated hunter-killer submarine. Was in fact mentioned by the navy brass before in 2009. But I can't find that interview.

                            All I can find is this.

                            http://paralay.com/advanced.html
                            So we can say a new generation of pr.671 class/size of boats. But what is the status, we have not yet heard of any advancement in that project.

                            http://paralay.com/advanced/05.jpg

                            The above drawing looks out of reality. Atleast the bow. A design with a sonar section in between the torpedo room is impractical. IMHO!
                            No chance. Either it has to be on the lower level or on the upper level, not in between.

                            Also, why go to the old type after successfully having a spherical array in the bow in Yasen?

                            Comment

                            • Jō Asakura
                              多聞天
                              • Jan 2011
                              • 1302

                              Originally posted by dionis View Post
                              What the hell are you talking about?

                              The Yasen, in today's dollars, is ~$1 billion / boat.

                              See the Lenta.ru article for 2 quotes putting them at about that much a piece. It's not a damn Zumlolwalt..
                              D'oh!! Apologies, I stand corrected- dunno what I was thinking!
                              Having factored in the 13.4Rbn paid to 'Malahit' for the 885M technical development cost- this would take the cost of the lead 885M (Kazan) to just over $2bn (at today's exchange rate), but obviously this development figure would be eventually shared as a programme acquisition unit cost.

                              164 млрд руб.— контракт с ОСК на строительство и поставку четырех атомных подлодок проекта 885М "Ясень-М";
                              164 billion rubles — contract with OSK for the construction and delivery of four submarines of the Project 885M "Ash-m" (164/4= 41Rbn, 41Rbn/$29.4234= approx. $1.4bn per sub);

                              47 млрд руб.— контракт с ОАО "Севмаш" на строительство головной лодки "Казань" проекта 885М;
                              47 billion rubles — contract with OAO "Sevmash-" for building the sub "Kazan" of the Project 885M class (47Rbn/$29.4234= approx. $1.6bn);

                              39 млрд руб.— допсоглашение с ЦКБ МТ "Рубин" на проектирование атомного подводного крейсера стратегического назначения проекта 955А "Борей";
                              39 billion rubles- agreement with TsKB MT "Rubin" for the design of SSBN Project 955A Northwind/Borei;

                              13,4 млрд руб.— контракт со СПМБМ "Малахит" на разработку техпроекта модернизации подлодки проекта 885М;
                              13.4 billion rubles — contract with SPMBM "Malahit" on the development of the technical project to upgrade the submarine Pr.885M

                              Подробнее: http://kommersant.ru/doc/1812512
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                              Comment

                              • TR1
                                TR1
                                http://tiny.cc/tp8kd
                                • Oct 2010
                                • 9817

                                Originally posted by Trident View Post
                                To be honest I partly agree with Jō Asakura, Russia should be able to make do with 30 to 40 high-quality subs (+ a handful of special mission hulls) in total. 16 to 20 SSNs/SSGNs, 8 SSBNs and 8 to 12 SSKs sounds good to me, and if they can get production going smoothly (probably a better way to spend money than a new design) I see no reason why all of these SSNs/SSGNs could not be Yasen variants. If it's a sound basic design it will easily remain competitive long enough to have that kind of production run, as long as the build rate is reasonable.
                                I am confident there will be more than 12 SSKs when all is said and done.
                                The SSN/SSGN number I think is very optimistic.
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                                Comment

                                • TR1
                                  TR1
                                  http://tiny.cc/tp8kd
                                  • Oct 2010
                                  • 9817

                                  Originally posted by Austin View Post
                                  If Yasen could achieve noise level comparable to Sea Wolf or Virgnia then it would really be a great achievement for them.
                                  If it can't it will be a failure for an incredibly experienced sub design bureau, IMO. Seawolf ain't exactly brand new, if still very potent.
                                  sigpic

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                                  • TR1
                                    TR1
                                    http://tiny.cc/tp8kd
                                    • Oct 2010
                                    • 9817

                                    The last of the 21630 gunboats, the Mahachkala, has been launched!

                                    http://img3.imageshack.us/img3/8554/889991118.jpg
                                    http://img267.imageshack.us/img267/3130/220022787.jpg
                                    http://img17.imageshack.us/img17/3461/97005454.jpg

                                    After completion, the ship will join its 2 sisters, in the Caspian Flotilla.

                                    http://img444.imageshack.us/img444/6245/934767355.jpg

                                    Volgodonsk finishing trials.

                                    New coats guard ship Zhemchug:

                                    http://img194.imageshack.us/img194/986/465914358.jpg
                                    sigpic

                                    Comment

                                    • Trident
                                      Rank 5 Registered User
                                      • May 2004
                                      • 3965

                                      Originally posted by TR1 View Post
                                      I am confident there will be more than 12 SSKs when all is said and done.
                                      The SSN/SSGN number I think is very optimistic.
                                      20 is clearly optimistic but I think 16 is actually an appropriate number for Russia to aim for, with 12 being something of a minimum. Their large fleet of good nuclear submarines is currently the Russian navy's main trump card over pretty much everyone other than the USN, keeping it that way as best they can seems like a shrewd investment. On the flip side, I really don't see a need for more than 16 SSKs (6 each for the Baltic and Black Sea fleets, 4 for the Pacific to patrol the Kuriles/Sea of O) at the utmost - 12 should do nicely and even 8 wouldn't be a disaster (given enough SSNs).
                                      sigpic

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                                      • TR1
                                        TR1
                                        http://tiny.cc/tp8kd
                                        • Oct 2010
                                        • 9817

                                        Don't forget North, they have SSKs to replace.

                                        I actually don't understand the huge re-armament plan for the BSF. 6 new subs + Alrosa seems gross overkill.

                                        Same with surface ships, but that's another story.
                                        sigpic

                                        Comment

                                        • El_Indigo
                                          Rank 5 Registered User
                                          • Jul 2006
                                          • 287

                                          Originally posted by JangBoGo View Post
                                          So we can say a new generation of pr.671 class/size of boats. But what is the status, we have not yet heard of any advancement in that project.
                                          And we won't besides just talk for at least next four or more years. If there even is going to be a dedicated hunter-killer submarine. Long term finacially it makes more sense to have a cruise missile/attack submarine hybrid then a dedicated hunter killer.

                                          Originally posted by JangBoGo View Post
                                          http://paralay.com/advanced/05.jpg

                                          The above drawing looks out of reality. Atleast the bow. A design with a sonar section in between the torpedo room is impractical. IMHO!
                                          No chance. Either it has to be on the lower level or on the upper level, not in between.

                                          Also, why go to the old type after successfully having a spherical array in the bow in Yasen?

                                          Just someone's doodling.

                                          @TR1

                                          Seeing the state of the BSF i'd say the re-armament and those 6 SSKs are sorely needed. Especially seeing how Turkey been beefing up. I also hope the succesor to Kristall will be a success and those 12 or 16 SSKs won't be all kilo's.
                                          Last edited by El_Indigo; 28th April 2012, 00:34.

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