North Korea Space and Missile Discussion

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N. Korea wants to follow Iran's footsteps in orbitting a satellite

NKorea threatens to punish critics amid fears of its long-range missile test

HYUNG-JIN KIM
AP News

Feb 26, 2009 14:38 EST

North Korea lashed out at critics warning it not to test a long-range missile, saying Thursday that it would punish those trying to disrupt its plan to send what it calls a satellite into orbit.
The latest harsh words from Pyongyang came as U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton announced plans to send her new envoy on North Korea to meet with negotiators in Asia trying to revive stalled nuclear disarmament talks.
North Korea announced earlier this week that it was preparing to shoot a communication satellite into orbit as part of it space program. The U.S., South Korea and other neighboring countries believe the launch may be a cover for a missile test-fire, saying the action would trigger international sanctions.
On Thursday, the Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of (North) Korea accused South Korea of "trumpeting about 'sanctions'" against its satellite launch, saying outsiders will know "what will soar in the air in the days ahead."
"If the puppet warmongers infringe upon our inviolable dignity even a bit ... we will not only punish the provokers but reduce their stronghold to debris," the committee said in a statement carried by the country's official Korean Central News Agency.
Kim Myong Gil, minister to the North's U.N. mission in New York, also told reporters in Atlanta on Thursday that his country would implement "the satellite launch as scheduled," saying timing of its launch remains to be seen, according to South Korea's Yonhap news agency. The report said Kim was in Atlanta to take part in an international academic forum.
Analysts say the North's planned launch is seen as a bid for President Barack Obama's attention as international talks on its nuclear programs remained stalled for months and tensions with South Korea are at their highest level in a decade.
Rodger Baker, director of East Asia analysis at STRATFOR, a global intelligence company, said the launch of the Taepodong-2 will most likely take place around the first week in March, around the time of elections for the North's rubber-stamp parliament.
The long-range Taepodong-2 missile is believed capable of reaching Alaska. Some experts think the North is preparing to test an advanced version that could reach the western continental U.S.
Baker said that North Korea's missile capability was "fairly sophisticated" given the country's isolation and lack of access to technology.
"They are really good with short-range and anti-ship missiles, mostly those they've modified from Soviet and Chinese missiles," Baker told The Associated Press.
Clinton announced Thursday that envoy Stephen Bosworth would soon travel to the capitals of four countries that have been working with Washington to get North Korea to give up its nuclear program — Russia, Japan, China and South Korea.
Bosworth, a former U.S. ambassador to South Korea, was named last week as the Obama administration's special representative for North Korea.
South Korea's Dong-a Ilbo newspaper reported Thursday that North Korea has built an underground fueling facility near its launch pad, making it harder for spy satellites to detect signs that a missile is being prepared for launch.
___

Associated Press writers Kwang-tae Kim in Seoul, Pamela Hess in Washington, Carley Petesch in New York and Anita Chang in Beijing contributed to this report.

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this could be a cover to test the U.S. ABM system

US Prepares to Shoot Down North Korea Test Missile
If Long-Range Missile Test Was Going to Raise Tensions, What Would Destroying It Mid-Flight Do?

Posted February 26, 2009

Reports have persisted for weeks that North Korea is preparing a test-fire of a long-range missile, potentially over Japan. Though North Korea says that it is actually planning to launch a communication satellite into orbit, the US sees that as cover for a missile test, and is preparing to respond.
Now it seems that response might not be restricted to the always-threatened talk of additional sanctions against the nation. ABC News quotes Pacific Command head Admiral Timothy Keating as saying the military is prepared to shoot the missile down if the president orders it.
Despite US warnings against the North Korean government not to act provocatively, the act of destroying a test missile seems at least as provocative as firing one, and with North Korea saying they are ready for war such a move would likely further harm relations between the two nations.

Source: news.antiwar.com, compiled by Jason Ditz

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Sep 20.
NorthKorea conduct ground test of new rocket engine reportedly for geo-stationary satellite launch - potential for dual use
Twitter @ JosephHDempsey
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https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Csyp4ttW8AEYekW.jpg:large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Csyp2o1XYAAOswB.jpg:large

So there is likely to be a rocket launch in the next 6-12 months time. Wonder if they will invite the international media for that event like they did for one of the earlier launch.

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Finally we see the Koreans testing their longer range missiles to almost their full range. But most of the experts are surprised by the new missile test and the progress made by the Koreans.

I don't know how long the link to the official press release will be available, so posting it full.

May. 15, Juche 106 (2017) Monday

Kim Jong Un Guides Test-Fire of New Rocket

A test-fire of new ground-to-ground medium long-range strategic ballistic rocket Hwasong-12 was successfully carried out on Sunday by scientists and technicians in the field of rocket research, who are bravely advancing toward a new goal to be proud of in the world, true to the far-sighted idea of Kim Jong Un, chairman of the Workers' Party of Korea, chairman of the State Affairs Commission of the DPRK and supreme commander of the Korean People's Army, for building a nuclear power.

Kim Jong Un guided the test-fire on the spot.

Looking at Hwasong-12, he expressed his satisfaction over the possession of another "Juche weapon", a perfect weapon system congruous with the military strategic and tactical idea of the WPK and the demand of the present times.

The test-fire was conducted at the highest angle in consideration of the security of neighboring countries. The test-fire aimed at verifying the tactical and technological specifications of the newly-developed ballistic rocket capable of carrying a large-size heavy nuclear warhead.

According to the order of Kim Jong Un, the new rocket Hwasong-12 was launched at 04:58 on Sunday.

The rocket accurately hit the targeted open waters 787km away after flying to the maximum altitude of 2,111.5km along its planned flight orbit.

The test-fire proved to the full all the technical specifications of the rocket, which was newly designed in a Korean-style by defence scientists and technicians, like guidance and stabilization systems, structural system and pressurization, inspection and launching systems and reconfirmed the reliability of new rocket engine under the practical flight circumstances.

It also verified the homing feature of the warhead under the worst re-entry situation and accurate performance of detonation system.

Kim Jong Un hugged officials in the field of rocket research, saying that they worked hard to achieve a great thing. And he had a picture taken with officials, scientists and technicians who took part in the test-fire.

Highly appreciating again their devotion for manufacturing the Korean-style medium long-range strategic ballistic rocket, he gave a special thanks to them on behalf of himself.

He said with confidence that the successful test-fire of Hwasong-12, a demonstration of high-level defence science and technology of the DPRK, is of great and special significance for securing peace and stability in the Korean peninsula and the region and is the greatest victory of the Korean people.

He declared that the DPRK is a nuclear power worthy of the name whether someone recognizes it or not. He stressed the DPRK will keep strict control over those engaging themselves in nuclear blackmail with its nuclear deterrence which has been unimaginably and rapidly developed.

The U.S. massively brought nuclear strategic assets to the vicinity of the Korean peninsula to threaten and blackmail the DPRK, but the coward American-style fanfaronade militarily browbeating only weak countries and nations which have no nukes can never work on the DPRK and is highly ridiculous, he said, stressing that if the U.S. dares opt for a military provocation against the DPRK, we are ready to counter it.

The most perfect weapon systems in the world will never become the eternal exclusive property of the U.S., he said, expressing the belief that the day when the DPRK uses the similar retaliatory means will come. He continued that on this occasion, the U.S. had better see clearly whether the ballistic rockets of the DPRK pose actual threat to it or not.

If the U.S. awkwardly attempts to provoke the DPRK, it will not escape from the biggest disaster in the history, he said, strongly warning the U.S. not to disregard or misjudge the reality that its mainland and Pacific operation region are in the DPRK's sighting range for strike and that it has all powerful means for retaliatory strike.

He gave the scientists and technicians in the field of rocket research the order to continuously develop more precise and diversified nukes and nuclear striking means, not content with the successes, and make preparations for more tests till the U.S. and its vassal forces make a proper choice with reason.
Political News Team


http://www.rodong.rep.kp/en/index.php?strPageID=SF01_02_01&newsID=2017-05-15-0001

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The range estimated for this new missiile is no less than 4,500Km. Even for that range we don't know what was the payload carried, though the Koreans mentioned the missile can carry a "large-size heavy nuclear warhead".

North Korea’s Missile in New Test Would Have 4,500 km Range
http://allthingsnuclear.org/dwright/north-koreas-missile-in-new-test-would-have-4500-km-range

http://allthingsnuclear.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/trajectory-plot.jpg

Good input regarding the latest missile launch and the new ingeniously designed engine that Koreans used for this missile test.

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Unlike the Pukguksong-2 (KN-15?) the Hwasong-12 It is liquid fueled. How long does it take to prepare a Hwasong-12 type missile for launch?

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This guys is really acting like a spoiled little kid. Nothing is macho or cool about war. It destroys everything. It costs a lot and nobody to send an invoice too. Someone make this guy come to his senses. Really it's super dangerous. Heck they are now using 3d printing technology to build war torn monuments. Create please, don't destroy. That's why I support local guitar events to help us keep a positive vibe on things.

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It's beginning to look like that Truce in 1953 was a bad idea.

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The Korean hardwares in order of their appearance during the past month.

The Korean long range AD missile

Yesterday they test fired coastal anti-ship missiles similar to the Kh-35, pics and videos are likely to be out in couple of days.

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Now that the school kid got some handy stuffs to give a bloody nose to the school bully who ended the last fight with the threat of using 30 or so nuclear weapons, the school bully is now complaining about the little boy and his nuclear shield.

Btw, here is a good docu by two Aussie guys and their Korean visit.

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Finally we see the real Korean stuff that was first paraded in 2012 and which many experts dismissed as just a wooden display model. Looks beautiful and neat, much better than the first displayed demo piece.

Most probably this is the real stuff and the missile which will be canistered in the near future. Or maybe a solid fueled version before that?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DD5yf7CVoAAtBNF.jpg:large
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DD5yf7CVoAAtBNF.jpg: orig full size
twitter @ stoa1984

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DD61B7EUwAAG_9M.jpg:large
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https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DD608i8UIAAQt25.jpg:large
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The model displayed back in 2012 parade

https://static01.nyt.com/images/2012/04/27/world/northkorea/northkorea-superJumbo.jpg
https://static01.nyt.com/images/2012/04/27/world/northkorea/northkorea-superJumbo.jpg

The canistered model displayed during this years parade

https://cdn5.img.sputniknews.com/images/105266/46/1052664646.jpg
https://cdn5.img.sputniknews.com/images/105266/46/1052664646.jpg

The range for this 2,802Km and 933Km trajectory for this flight has been quoted as upto 6,700Km and even upto 8,000Km.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DD6tU5qVwAA19FS.jpg:orig
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DD6tU5qVwAA19FS.jpg: orig

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The video of, not so new, Korean ICBM is out. Its looks beautiful, but Topol-M leaving the canister looks much cooler. :cool:

Indians can learn few things from the new comers, Koreans, on how to properly do a weapons system. Its impressive what the Koreans have created for their ballistic missiles. What India still does is built a long range ballistic missile and then as an after thought do a TEL. From whatever that has been developed till date, there has been no signs of an integrated thought process in creating a strategic weapons system. Rather they create a long ranger and then pull out a tractor trailer to haul the missiles. That need to change.

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Two good articles worth reading.

North Korea’s Nuclear Push Is Just One Piece of a Nationwide Building Boom
JULY 5, 2017

North Korea’s nuclear weapons program has led to increased sanctions and isolation. But these factors haven’t stopped the country from starting significant infrastructure projects in the last five years.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/07/05/world/asia/north-korea-building-boom-construction-nuclear-weapons.html

NORTH KOREA’S ICBM: A NEW MISSILE AND A NEW ERA
JULY 6, 2017

North Korea didn’t just acquire an ICBM out of nowhere. This is a long-sought capability that is paired with an increasingly clear nuclear strategy.
https://warontherocks.com/2017/07/north-koreas-icbm-a-new-missile-and-a-new-era/

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Couple of earlier videos from other forums...
Interview by an Indian channel with DPR Korea's ambassador to India, around 20-21 June, before the 1st launch of Hwasong-14 ICBM on 4th July. They were very categorical that they are ready for a moratorium on both nuclear and missile tests if the US reciprocate with a halt in the annual military exercises along the Korean borders.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I4KWME-qjRM

Never saw the below video before, which shows the space centre and looks like they have revamped it. Looks really good. It also shows the young Kim inside his official VIP jet, Tu-134. No translation, only meant to get glimpse inside their facilities.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izkKpGBMxVA

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Good read
Five myths about missiles
https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/five-myths/five-myths-about-missiles/2017/08/18/1a93967c-835a-11e7-902a-2a9f2d808496_story.html

Regarding the recent news of Korea getting its engines from Ukraine/black market....

And why that report is not true.

How North Korea makes its missiles
Two reports this week made crucial mistakes about the DPRK's rocket development
https://www.nknews.org/2017/08/how-north-korea-makes-its-missiles/

Lets see if they will showcase such a capability in future tests.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DHlk1b9UIAA6Yii.jpg
 https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DHlk1b9UIAA6Yii.jpg
Few interesting quotes from here
https://www.quora.com/How-efficient-is-North-Koreas-ICBM/answer/Sy-Gunson

There are two mysteries about the upper second stage. The first concerns speculation about the lack of an obvious Re-entry vehicle. Rather it concerns why the Hwasong-14 had a yellow nose cap and a payload shroud?

During the ascent telemetry recorded the missile shed its nose cap.

Fitting an aerodynamic fairing might be understandable if the re-entry vehicle was not ready yet, but to also fit an ejectable yellow nose cone makes no sense unless that was an operational feature. Maybe then the July 28th test launch was successful and maybe it did not break up unintentionally as claimed.

What if the break up spotted on radar was the intentional separation of dummy MIRV warheads?


Lighter Structure Revealed

However in 2012 a Chinese vessel carrying North Korean missile fuel tanks to Syria was intercepted. They were constructed of wound Graphite filament. Next a KN-11 missile was seen on parade in Pyongyang with woven Graphite filament.

Why is that important?

It is because Graphite resin construction is very strong and very lightweight. So light in fact that it could shave a third off the structural weight of an equivalent metallic fuel tank.

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How big is a HS-12 missile crew? This is another sign of much more operational launch - not the huge crew in experimental launches
https://twitter.com/inbarspace/status/908962616223031296

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJ1IT5XXoAAZ0T2.jpg:orig
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJ1IT5XXoAAZ0T2.jpg: orig

Thinking Through Nuclear Command and Control in North Korea
How does North Korea manage nuclear launch authority and prevent unauthorized use?
http://thediplomat.com/2017/09/thinking-through-nuclear-command-and-control-in-north-korea/

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Couple of articles worth reading. The below one tells us that diplomatic options are not exhausted citing the reasons why the earlier deal fell off.

A brief history of the huge mess in North Korea
BY JOSHUA POLLACK

President Trump set the tone for North Korea policy last Wednesday on Twitter, as he is wont to do, declaring that America “has been talking to North Korea, and paying them extortion money, for 25 years. Talking is not the answer!” Spoiler alert: This tweet didn’t stop Kim Jong Un from appearing with a hydrogen bomb before North Korea conducted its biggest nuclear test by far.

Although Secretary of Defense James Mattis was quick to inject that “we’re never out of diplomatic solutions,” Trump’s position didn’t arrive out of the blue. It echoed comments that Secretary of State Rex Tillerson delivered back in March, as the administration’s North Korea policy review was coming to a close: “America has provided $1.3 billion in assistance to North Korea since 1995. In return, North Korea has detonated nuclear weapons, and dramatically increased its launches of ballistic missiles to threaten America and our allies.

Let’s pause to consider just how wrong these statements are. The point isn’t to indulge in contrarianism, but to understand why policy on North Korea has been such a disaster. The reasons go beyond the almost comprehensively broken policy-making and communications of the new administration.

Indeed, the self-inflicted wounds started under George W. Bush, and it was during the Obama years that Washington enshrined its paralysis as a principle.

The record of American-North Korean diplomacy, and U.S. aid to North Korea, began in earnest in 1994, when the Clinton administration concluded a bargain called the “Agreed Framework.” North Korea mothballed its single plutonium-production reactor at Yongbyon and suspended the construction of two larger ones. Along with partners in an international consortium, the U.S. agreed to provide North Korea with new light-water reactors for electricity production. In the meantime, Washington supplied North Korea with shipments of heavy fuel oil. Humanitarian food aid started flowing in 1996.

The Agreed Framework was a product of crisis diplomacy, just four pages long. It was effective but hardly all-inclusive. It said nothing about missiles, for example. So when North Korea attempted to launch a satellite eastward over Japan in August 1998, it didn’t break the deal, but it did put it under stress. The Clinton administration’s response was to press Pyongyang for a moratorium on further space launches and missile tests. Perhaps because North Korea was still emerging from a famine at the time, it accepted the new restriction.

The next major challenge to the Agreed Framework, in the fall of 2002, was its end. Having discovered that North Korea was working on enriching uranium — an activity not explicitly forbidden in the 1994 deal — the George W. Bush administration washed its hands of the entire mess.

It’s unclear whether Pyongyang could have been squeezed into compliance with another demand, but Washington didn’t try. Instead, oil shipments and reactor-building activity ceased. North Korea responded by restarting the Yongbyon reactor and withdrew from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, making it the only country to have done so.

In the administration’s second term, some Bush officials seemed to realize the costs of standing aloof, but the administration was riven by disputes about how to proceed. On one hand, it tried to negotiate a new agreement in the “Six-Party Talks” sponsored by China. On the other hand, it tried to squeeze North Korea as hard as possible, ending food aid and using financial measures to cut the regime off from funds it held overseas. In 2006, according to a detailed report from the Congressional Research Service, U.S. aid to North Korea fell to nothing for the first time since 1994.

Pyongyang’s response was to resume testing ballistic missiles, and then to test its first nuclear device.

By the next year, it appeared that the sides had peered over the brink and decided on a rethink. In 2007, Six-Party Talks yielded two “action plans” that more or less reconstituted the Agreed Framework in a new guise, including renewed fuel oil shipments. Facilities at Yongbyon, including the plutonium-production reactor, underwent forms of “disablement” to ensure they could not be rapidly returned to use.

But in August 2008, talks stumbled over disagreements on what verification activities would be permitted at nuclear facilities. The United States provided its last shipment of oil that December. Food aid, which had resumed in 2008, concluded in 2009.

Since then, there has also been no virtually no aid of any sort. Of course, there have been another five nuclear tests, plus multiple space launches and dozens of missile tests. Talks were tentatively tried again in 2011, leading to parallel announcements of a freeze on nuclear and missile activities in February 2012. But as soon as the North Koreans announced plans for a space launch, the United States pulled back, calling Pyongyang unreliable.

There’s a lot of truth to the view that North Korea is slippery, exploiting every loophole and pushing every boundary. Facing this sort of behavior, the United States has always had a choice: to press our demands on the North Koreans, as we did after the 1998 space launch and the first nuclear test in 2006, or to give up on any chance at reining them in, as we did in October 2002 and March 2012.

The results of these choices speak for themselves. In honor of the Fourth of July this year, North Korea conducted its first test of an intercontinental ballistic missile. Last weekend, it followed up with a nuclear test with an explosive yield in the hundreds of kilotons, roughly comparable to weapons in the American, Russian, Chinese, French and British arsenals.

Nothing of the sort took place during the much-derided years of talks and aid, 1995-2002 and 2007-2008. Americans are justified in asking our leaders if this outcome was really preferable to sending oil and food to North Korea in exchange for no nuclear or missile tests. Just don’t expect any good answers from the tweeter-in-chief.

Pollack is a senior research associate at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey and editor of the Nonproliferation Review.


http://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/history-huge-mess-north-korea-article-1.3473814

Also,

I’m a nuclear weapons expert. Trump’s presidency is my personal nightmare.
By Jeffrey Lewis
Jeffrey Lewis is a scholar at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey.

My greatest fear is a reality: A lunatic has gained control of nuclear-armed missiles that could reach halfway around the globe. And, to make matters worse, Kim Jong Un has them, too.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/posteverything/wp/2017/08/23/im-a-nuclear-weapons-expert-trumps-presidency-is-my-personal-nightmare/

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It increasingly looks like the outcome of this crisis is going to be binary, either the hawks will choose a N-war or they will swallow their pride and ego and accept the Russian proposal of a double freeze!

https://twitter.com/ArmsControlWonk/status/911037985004462080

Jeffrey Lewis‏ @ArmsControlWonk
Me, in the @nytimes in August, warning about an over-ocean atmospheric nuclear test.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKSoNW8VYAAqSXa.jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DKSoNW8VYAAqSXa.jpg

^ Thats exactly how the media described the Korean missiles earlier - a "projectile". And if we take Trump's own word after his well deserved Presidential victory - "they are not laughing anymore".

Anyway, we might be able to settle few questions once and for all, namely - if the Korean missiles have the range to cover the entire continental US, if their reentry technology is matured enough and if they have a working thermo-nuclear warhead for their ICBMs. All courtesy of the murican hawks and their skepticism as mentioned in the above article.