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  • obligatory
    Senior Member
    • Oct 2008
    • 7043

    Is the history of Taiwan coming to an end ?

    I just read a post by toan and Tango III that left me wondering if a deal has been done with China already to hand Taiwan back.

    Originally posted by toan
    Taiwan (ROC) ordered 60 Mirage 2000-5 and 960 MICA AAMs in 1990s, and after around 10 years of service, more than 90% of MICA AAMs have reached their own life-span.

    And when Taiwan asked France for the necessary refurbishment and upgrading for Mirage 2000-5 and MICA AAMs this year, French government simply refused and set a military ban to Taiwan without any explanation.

    What a great missile, and what a great post-sale service........
    Originally posted by Tango III
    U.S. declines to sell F-16 fighter jets to Taiwan: MP


    TAIPEI (Reuters) - The U.S. government has declined to make a long-awaited sale of F-16 fighter jets to Taiwan for fear of upsetting China, Taiwan's parliament speaker said on Tuesday.

    The White House blocked the $4.9 billion deal for 66 advanced F-16s last year and there was little hope of it being revived this year, said Wang Jin-pyng.

    "The U.S. doesn't want to give them to us," Wang told Reuters in an interview.

    "They wouldn't name a price. It's mainly because mainland China would oppose the sale."

    China has claimed sovereignty over Taiwan since 1949, when Mao Zedong's Communists won the Chinese civil war and Chiang Kai-shek's Nationalists (KMT) fled to the island.

    Beijing has vowed to bring Taiwan under its rule, by force if necessary, and opposes all U.S. arms sales to the island. Washington recognizes China diplomatically and is seeking to improve relations with the Asian economic powerhouse.

    Although China-Taiwan ties have improved since President Ma Ying-jeou took office on the island last year, deep military distrust lingers between the two sides.

    Taiwan first asked to buy new F-16s in 2007 after approving substantial funding for the aircraft. Wang said Taiwan's current fleet is 16 years old, Wang said.

    The U.S. Pacific Command said in July that U.S. policymakers saw no pressing need to sell advanced arms to Taiwan.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/polit...5292WL20090310
  • swerve
    Rank 5 Registered User
    • Jun 2005
    • 13605

    #2
    I think Taiwan is on the way out. One of the two main political parties doesn't seem to be sure whether it wants to defend the island or not, & the economy is now so integrated with the mainland that it's ceasing to function as a separate state in many ways.

    According to some estimates, 1 million Taiwanese are now working on the mainland, mostly managers & skilled technical personnel in factories employing many more mainlanders, & more & more of them are moving their families there, or marrying locals. Taiwan itself is becoming a back office for many firms which have their main operations on the mainland, the site of largely notional head offices.
    Juris praecepta sunt haec: honeste vivere, alterum non laedere, suum cuique tribuere.
    Justinian

    Comment

    • J-20 Hotdog
      Senior Member
      • Mar 2008
      • 3476

      #3
      Originally posted by swerve View Post
      I think Taiwan is on the way out. One of the two main political parties doesn't seem to be sure whether it wants to defend the island or not, & the economy is now so integrated with the mainland that it's ceasing to function as a separate state in many ways.

      According to some estimates, 1 million Taiwanese are now working on the mainland, mostly managers & skilled technical personnel in factories employing many more mainlanders, & more & more of them are moving their families there, or marrying locals. Taiwan itself is becoming a back office for many firms which have their main operations on the mainland, the site of largely notional head offices.
      oor... Taiwan can just wait it out and "win" in the end.
      Mainland China's greatest enemy ain't no border warfare with some Injuns, nosy Yanks, the Russkis, Japancheese, or the amalgamation of SE Asians. Historically and even today, its greatest threat was always internal disorder (and how external forces take advantage of that).

      with the rapid growing economy comes new dreams and expectations. Everyone has gotten richer but the coastal chaps far more than the country bumpkins. You need big government to redistribute that wealth into the back areas (the **** of China).. and yes bigger than even what mr Obama wants to do. But the coastal chaps won't like this one bit. The back end guys want to see the same level of development (or even half of) of what the coastal guys have.. but for a number of reasons, its not possible (coastal areas rich for a reason, massive amounts of resources and gov't redistribution needed for interior). One day that interior people will grow anger at what they think is injustice (or all simply flock to the coastal areas) and more friction will grow internally. damn those country bumpkins.
      then there's the threat of long term and serious inflation, quite similar to what Vietnam had before the financial crisis.

      One could say India is a bit the same, but it has two coasts.. and its caste mentality so strongly engrained that the untouchables can stay untouchable and accept their fate when watching Mumbai skyscrapers rising.. I heard some where that the government there built a new elevated highway that connects the airport straight to the rich areas.. no offramps/onramps to the poor areas in between.

      Comment

      • crobato
        Rank 5 Registered User
        • Jan 2000
        • 7172

        #4
        Your behind the news by two decades. The Chinese interior has grown a lot in about two decades. Many of the electronics, radar, telecommunications, aviation and even the automobile companies, like those being sued for their look alikes, are all in the Chinese interior. Interior cities like Chongging are the fastest growing cities in China. Look at the aircraft like J-10 and JH-7A, all built by cities within the interior. To back those up, the interior has to have a whole net of subcontractors with relatively sophisticated production capabilities.
        pb::

        Comment

        • J-20 Hotdog
          Senior Member
          • Mar 2008
          • 3476

          #5
          Originally posted by crobato View Post
          Your behind the news by two decades. The Chinese interior has grown a lot in about two decades. Many of the electronics, radar, telecommunications, aviation and even the automobile companies, like those being sued for their look alikes, are all in the Chinese interior. Interior cities like Chongging are the fastest growing cities in China. Look at the aircraft like J-10 and JH-7A, all built by cities within the interior. To back those up, the interior has to have a whole net of subcontractors with relatively sophisticated production capabilities.
          Chongching and Chengdu were always big cities even if in the interior.

          Comment

          • crobato
            Rank 5 Registered User
            • Jan 2000
            • 7172

            #6
            It doesn't change that these cities are interlinked with towns that have factories with ever increasing sophisticated manufacturing abilities. China's interior is quite developed, unless you're talking about highlands in Yunnan, or towards provinces in the west like Qinghai, Gansu, or Xinjiang. These on the other hand, have the mining industry. Interior provinces to the north like Inner Mongolia are the haven for the industries supplying the Army, like those building guns and tanks. The NOR in Norinco stands for Northern.

            Hu Jin Tao comes from the poor province of Gansu.

            An example of an interior city is Wuhan. They actually build submarines there, like the Song and Yuan class. The finished ships and subs are delivered through the Yangtze river.
            Last edited by crobato; 13th March 2009, 05:20.
            pb::

            Comment

            • J-20 Hotdog
              Senior Member
              • Mar 2008
              • 3476

              #7
              Originally posted by crobato View Post
              It doesn't change that these cities are interlinked with towns that have factories with ever increasing sophisticated manufacturing abilities. China's interior is quite developed, unless you're talking about highlands in Yunnan, or towards provinces in the west like Qinghai or Xinjiang. These on the other hand, have the mining industry. Interior provinces to the north like Inner Mongolia are the haven for the industries supplying the Army, like those building guns and tanks. The NOR in Norinco stands for Northern.
              nope. having a factory here and there doesn't really mean anything because you fail to look at the labor involved and where the money is going.

              look at the Soviet Union, they had lots of crap land where residents were **** poor. Of course there were some natural resources there that could be exploited. Sure some locals were hired, but many of the key people would come from Moscow or some other part that was richer and people better educated and could do the job better. The resource gets sent raw to some where else, or developed there even.. but in the end its sold by those in Moscow or some other city, and in the chain of production, the end seller makes the most profit, not the poor chap going into those mines or whatever that is cheap labor.

              I hear in Xinjiang, there's lots of oil factories going up.. but most of the people staffing it are from the coastal areas moving in with their cities.

              In anycase, you're talking about the wrong things. the fact is, the coastal areas are richer than the interior.. you can find exceptions like xian and cheng du and whatever but they were always bigger and richer than most other interior parts. In the end, despite all these developments which are occuring, its uneven, and the per capita income for each province shows it. sure there's growth and improvement but as long as one side grows exponentially higher than the other, the one that is growing (less) will feel anger that they are not seeing the same rise.
              take a look at the top 8 per capita in RMB (all coastal states cept for Beijing)
              1 Shanghai 56,733
              2 Beijing 49,505
              3 Tianjin 40,961
              4 Zhejiang 31,684
              5 Jiangsu 28,685
              6 Guangdong 28,077
              7 Shandong 23,546
              8 Liaoning 21,802

              and then the lowest 7
              25 Sichuan 10,574
              26 Tibet Autonomous Region 10,396
              27 Guangxi 10,240
              28 Anhui 10,044
              29 Yunnan 8,961
              30 Gansu 8,749
              31 Guizhou 5,750

              sure, Sichuan has Cheng Du, but the rest of that state is not Cheng Du (same could be said about say Dalian areas outside of Liaoning, but the entire average shows thats its more developed).

              then you got other things too.. like lack of labor laws and proper business laws that create unrest.

              Comment

              • crobato
                Rank 5 Registered User
                • Jan 2000
                • 7172

                #8
                Coastal areas have the advantage because one, all the export companies are there, and two because all the foreign subsidiaries are there.

                I don't think the PRC can't ask Dell to move its factories from Fujian to Sichuan. Neither can you move ports and shipyards to the interior as well, though Wuhan is an exception.

                This does not change that the interior is booming (in pause for now) and if the cities boom, there is going to be a trickle down effect on the countryside. Its going to increase even so with the stimulus package aimed at making infrastructure----a lot of those infrastructure projects are focused in the interior. So are dams, nuclear plants and other alternative energy sources like wind. As I said, automobile, electronics and defense industries are in the interior. The interior will benefit the most from this positioning when China's own local consumption will rise.
                pb::

                Comment

                • J-20 Hotdog
                  Senior Member
                  • Mar 2008
                  • 3476

                  #9
                  Originally posted by crobato View Post
                  Coastal areas have the advantage because one, all the export companies are there, and two because all the foreign subsidiaries are there.

                  I don't think the PRC can't ask Dell to move its factories from Fujian to Sichuan. Neither can you move ports and shipyards to the interior as well, though Wuhan is an exception.

                  This does not change that the interior is booming (in pause for now) and if the cities boom, there is going to be a trickle down effect on the countryside. Its going to increase even so with the stimulus package aimed at making infrastructure----a lot of those infrastructure projects are focused in the interior. So are dams, nuclear plants and other alternative energy sources like wind.
                  ya ya, I agree with you in that coastal areas will always have an advantage because it is coastal.. same like the US and Russia..

                  but China is an odd egg in the basket of nations. Each state/administrative division/whatever China calls it.. is really, the size of one country.. Sichuan is the size of Vietnam alone, Guangxi is like Burma size, etc (population). in what most countries, the interior could be subsidized through massive public works and other gov't spending.. the sheer fact is that China simply has too many people it has to accomodate. Now lets assume Cheng Du is the only city in Sichuan thats highly developed and rich.. and that eveyrone in Cheng Du is the same. so we got 11 million people out of the 87 million in the entire province.. so we got 76 million people left who contribute to Sichuan being in the bottom 7 of the per capta income despite Cheng Du being high. 76 million is no small amount, its more than the population of Turkey, France, or the UK!
                  developing jobs in the interior (harder than the coast) will be hard, so will developing all that energy resources to fuel their needs.

                  The West and Japan got to where they are at by using a good chunk of the worlds resources. is there enough for the entire China should they want the interior to be as developed as the coastal areas? China is one of those countries (along with India) that will have to settle with major income gaps between regions, but somehow it would be likely that those in the interior won't accept that.

                  Taiwan, because it is smaller and has a smaller population is much more stable and evenly distributed income in comparison.

                  Comment

                  • crobato
                    Rank 5 Registered User
                    • Jan 2000
                    • 7172

                    #10
                    Chongging which is the fastest growing city, is in Sichuan too, until it became a sub munincipality of its own. Chengdu isn't one city, its a bunch of several cities.

                    The growth rate is much faster than the rest of China.

                    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sichuan

                    According to Sichuan Department of Commerce the provinces total foreign trade reached US$14.38 billion in 2007, which is a year on year increase of 30.5 percent. Exports reached US$8.61 billion, with a year on year increase of 30 percent, while imports were at US$5.77 billion with a year on year increase of 31.4 percent. These achievements were accomplished due to the significant change in China's foreign trade policy, acceleration of yuan appreciation, increase of trade incentives and increasing production cost. The 18 cities and counties witnessed a steady rate of increase. Chengdu, Suining, Nanchong, Dazhou, Ya'an, Abazhou, Liangshan all saw an increase of more than 40 percent while Leshan, Neijiang, Luzhou, Meishan, Ziyang, Yibin saw an increase of more than 20 percent. Foreign trade in Zigong, Panzhihua, Guang'an, Bazhong and Ganzi remained constant.

                    Note: As production costs in the coasts goes higher, more and more production is shifting in the interior. Also when Chinese consumption patterns change, the interior will feed the coasts. The Chinese stimulus package offers a whole lot of tax breaks to aid consumption and business, with tax breaks from exports to buying homes and cars.
                    Last edited by crobato; 13th March 2009, 06:04.
                    pb::

                    Comment

                    • Don Chan
                      Rank V Registered User
                      • Aug 2003
                      • 3393

                      #11
                      ] So are dams, nuclear plants and other alternative energy sources like wind.

                      Alternate energy plants are built in provinces where traditional coal-based power plants are impractical to build, operate, maintain, and resupply. So, Inner Mongolia, Xi Zhuang, Xin Jiang, &c, out in the "Big Northwest" have far more solar and wind power farms.
                      OTOH, in practically every city, we see the solar-powered water tank-heaters on roofs of building; one heater per family. I suspect these water tank-heaters are also popping up, say, in Pakistan.

                      ] As I said, automobile, electronics and defense industries are in the interior.

                      After the 5.12 Wen Chuan (Si Chuan) earthquake in 2008, some of the PLA sent to Si Chuan weren't there to save the civies; they were there to inspect and secure defense and nuke facilities.

                      ] The interior will benefit the most from this positioning when China's own local consumption will rise.

                      I went to a HKTDC (Hong Kong Trade Development Council) or some-such seminar last year, and one of the speakers spoke (duh) about foreign brands who are recently first-entering China. He mentioned when (I think) Beck's Beer wanted to come here, most people were suggesting the coastal cities, such as Shang Hai, Tian Jin, and Xia Men; but these were already crowded with beers from Japan, South Korea, USA, &c.
                      They instead went to one of the interior provinces, where they quickly expanded their regional market-share, based on their novelty as a foreign brand, and with the cooperation by the local governments.

                      ] having a factory here and there doesn't really mean anything because you fail to look at the labor involved and where the money is going.

                      In and after 2008, thousands of factories have shut down in Guang Dong Province, north of Hong Kong. Despite the excellent highways in Guang Dong Province, relocating some of the factories to western Guang Dong Province, or even Guang Xi Province, away from seaports, is unprofitable. Plus, labour and logistics problems.

                      ] like lack of labor laws and proper business laws that create unrest.

                      Actually, since January 2008, the labour laws in Commie China are tooooo good, for the labour side, and not for the investor/management side. 8(

                      ] Hu Jin Tao comes from the poor province of Gansu.

                      And his deeds include working for a while in Xi Zhuang.
                      OTOH, WEN Jia Bao is very well remembered as being photographed standing beside ZHAO Zi Yang (R.I.P.), when they went to Tian An Men Square in May 1989, where Zhao, using a loudspeaker, made his famous "Comrade students and workers, I'm sorry, I come here late, too late" speech.

                      ] Historically and even today, its greatest threat was always internal disorder (and how external forces take advantage of that).

                      In May 1989, the CCP elders had two choices: remove the protesters in Bei Jing, and they could lose the country, that is, the support from the population in China, even the world. Or, not remove the protesters, collaborate/compromise with their demands, then politically reform; and they could lose the party, that is, the CCP as the sole ruling party in Continental China.
                      Although externally a single party, the so-called Communist Parties in China and North Korea aren't as homogeneous as casual outsiders think. Chairman Mao (IMO, "Grass Clay Horse", to quote a modern Chinese Internet slang) said something like: a party has factions (inside the party), and a faction has parties (inside the faction); if a party has no faction, then it's amazingly strange.

                      ] and its caste mentality so strongly engrained that the untouchables can stay untouchable and accept their fate when watching Mumbai skyscrapers rising.

                      OTOH, in Commie China, the 1966-1976 Cultural Revolution chaos wiped out the people's ethical constraints.

                      ] no offramps/onramps to the poor areas in between.

                      In Commie China, some highway-operators (such as in An Hui, Guang Dong, and Zhe Jiang) are listed companies in the Commie China and Hong Kong stock markets. To increase revenue, they just build more on/off ramps and share the profits with the affected village committees. 8D

                      ] & the economy is now so integrated with the mainland that it's ceasing to function as a separate state in many ways.

                      Other Orientals, such as Japs and Koreans, are also living and running factories in Commie China.
                      OTOH, I know Taiwanese who are living and running factories in Southeast Asia, such as Thailand.

                      Eight years ago, after the KMT lost the presidential election in Taiwan, it effectively surrendered to the CCP, when two of the KMT leaders went to Commie China. The Chicom promised to exchange two giant pandas to Taiwan, animals that really cost a lot to keep anyway, and this promise was only realised last year, when the KMT again became the ruling party in Taiwan.
                      Last edited by Don Chan; 26th August 2009, 08:53.
                      Republic of Korea Air Force KF-16 missing photographs

                      http://www.f-16.net/aircraft-databas...irforce/ROKAF/

                      Comment

                      • coldfire2005
                        Rank 5 Registered User
                        • Dec 2005
                        • 727

                        #12
                        is this a right place to talk politics in a aviation forum

                        Comment

                        • Don Chan
                          Rank V Registered User
                          • Aug 2003
                          • 3393

                          #13
                          AFAIK, Taiwan isn't getting more Fighting Falcons, but it's still getting more Harpoons and Orions.
                          Last edited by Don Chan; 13th March 2009, 10:44. Reason: My 2,000th post. 8D
                          Republic of Korea Air Force KF-16 missing photographs

                          http://www.f-16.net/aircraft-databas...irforce/ROKAF/

                          Comment

                          • ante_climax
                            Senior Member
                            • Dec 2008
                            • 2793

                            #14
                            So everyone thinks Americans are going to hand Taiwan to China in a plate ?? No, they just don't want to irritate China when they need its help. I think the last Administration (while denying sales) has clearly stated China cannot expect America to sit idly if it attacks Taiwan.

                            I do think however. that there is a great chance of Taiwan deciding to join China on its own, with an arrangement to keep its political system local autonomy etc, a bit like Hong Kong. And in 100 years may be even China will be democratic

                            Comment

                            • swerve
                              Rank 5 Registered User
                              • Jun 2005
                              • 13605

                              #15
                              Originally posted by ante_climax View Post
                              ...I do think however. that there is a great chance of Taiwan deciding to join China on its own, with an arrangement to keep its political system local autonomy etc, a bit like Hong Kong. ...
                              Probably the most likely outcome. Gradual peaceful integration, until a Hong Kong-style arrangement becomes merely formal recognition of reality.

                              I think it'll take quite a while, though.
                              Juris praecepta sunt haec: honeste vivere, alterum non laedere, suum cuique tribuere.
                              Justinian

                              Comment

                              • 21Ankush
                                Senior Member
                                • Dec 2004
                                • 1951

                                #16
                                Originally posted by J-7 Hotdog View Post

                                One could say India is a bit the same, but it has two coasts.. and its caste mentality so strongly engrained that the untouchables can stay untouchable and accept their fate when watching Mumbai skyscrapers rising.. I heard some where that the government there built a new elevated highway that connects the airport straight to the rich areas.. no offramps/onramps to the poor areas in between.
                                I'd really suggest that you stay off this topic. its too complicated for you to be able to comprehend easily and there are some many facets to this discussion, that it would derail this thread. suffice to say that the "untouchables" BS that you're stating here is pretty much untrue. you can be a higher caste person and suffer poverty- they're not mutually exclusive. and the next most likely PM candidate is a Dalit (untouchable) class woman. speaks volumes about how much representation they are getting now.

                                in fact, India has more reservations for the Scheduled Caste, Scheduled Tribes, Other Backward Classes, etc. than you can dream of (in some states, as high as 60% in colleges and other institutions and even government jobs). since you're not Indian, and haven't suffered as a result of the system that rewards non-meritorious people on the basis of their caste, I suggest you not comment on it unless you're extremely well-versed with it.

                                as for the elevated highway, please post a link to a source.

                                Comment

                                • swerve
                                  Rank 5 Registered User
                                  • Jun 2005
                                  • 13605

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by J-7 Hotdog View Post
                                  ...India ... and its caste mentality so strongly engrained that the untouchables can stay untouchable and accept their fate when watching Mumbai skyscrapers rising.. ...
                                  "Untouchable" chief minister of the most populous state in India.
                                  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kumari_Mayawati

                                  You're thinking of a world long gone. Times have changed.
                                  Juris praecepta sunt haec: honeste vivere, alterum non laedere, suum cuique tribuere.
                                  Justinian

                                  Comment

                                  • 21Ankush
                                    Senior Member
                                    • Dec 2004
                                    • 1951

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by J-7 Hotdog View Post


                                    One could say India is a bit the same, but it has two coasts..
                                    another misconception due to lack of real knowledge of India..

                                    the coast doesn't guarantee anything in India. you have a seafaring trading people like the Gujaratis of Gujarat who are prosperous and you have coastal people like the Oriyas of Orissa, who are poor. and in India, the interiors are as well developed as the coastal areas. New Delhi, Gurgaon, Chandigarh, Jaipur, Ahmedabad, Kanpur, Pune, Bangalore, Hyderabad are not coastal cities are yet among the largest in India, with Bangalore and Hyderabad being major hubs of science and technology activities..you can have a great city like Kolkata, but because its a commie state, its economy is in a really bad shape. same goes for Kerala (another coastal state), which is commie, and has a poor economy (but 100% literacy), which drives people to the middle east.

                                    but what is true in India is that the cities (no matter if they're coastal or in the interior) are much richer than the towns and villages, where there needs to be a lot more development.
                                    Last edited by 21Ankush; 13th March 2009, 16:25.

                                    Comment

                                    • obligatory
                                      Senior Member
                                      • Oct 2008
                                      • 7043

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by ante climax
                                      I do think however. that there is a great chance of Taiwan deciding to join China on its own, with an arrangement to keep its political system local autonomy etc, a bit like Hong Kong. And in 100 years may be even China will be democratic
                                      Yes, that seem to be the intention, and the refusal to provide them with means to defend is meant to help them understand that.
                                      I give it 10 years...

                                      Comment

                                      • Don Chan
                                        Rank V Registered User
                                        • Aug 2003
                                        • 3393

                                        #20
                                        ] No, they just don't want to irritate China when they need its help.

                                        USA already begun to abandon Taiwan when President Nixon went to China, and when the Chicom replaced the KMT as the China representative at the UN.
                                        Decades later, President Bush I sold F-16s to Taiwan, just to save jobs at General Dynamics Fort Worth. USA could've sold F-20s to Taiwan instead, years earlier.
                                        Right now, USA plainly doesn't want to irritate China because USA wants China and other countries with spare change to soak up the US Treasury bonds that President Obama will print out like there's snow tomorrow, to fund his proposed cures for the US economy.
                                        We previously saw this China-bashing and China-hugging pattern in April 2001 and September 2001, respectively.
                                        OTOH, the Chicom are just as shamelessly professional. For instance, when Chris Patten was the last governor of Hong Kong, the Chicom spent years to condemn him as a "criminal of a thousand years" everyday. More years later, when Patten went to Bei Jing as an EU envoy, he got to shake hands with President JIANG Ze Min, and the Chicom and its propaganda system absolutely forgot all of Patten's cardinal sins.
                                        Republic of Korea Air Force KF-16 missing photographs

                                        http://www.f-16.net/aircraft-databas...irforce/ROKAF/

                                        Comment

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