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    Originally posted by Mountain View Post
    China to Induct JF-17 - Chinese official

    http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-13-32684-Sichuan-to-complete-$2-bn-projects-in-Pakistan-official
    Any further reports on the rumour that the PLAAF may look to purchase the FC-1?

    Although it doesn't seem like a very good idea with the superior J-10B being available, I wouldn't be surprised if they chose to purchase it for export reasons..a PLAAF purchase may give some much needed impetus to the stalled export negotiations for the JF-17. Customer nations may be a tad bit uncertain about buying the JF-17 when the country which developed it doesn't seem interested in purchasing it and only lets it be an export type.

    Comment


      At the risk of inflaming this Pakistan/India high school cat fight......

      I think we are comparing apples with oranges. Pakistan in my opinion does not want to overtake India in military capability, they just need enough to inflict losses to India in any war to unacceptable levels. Neither can give the opponent a decisive blow without being seriously wounded itself.

      We already know that both countries use the best methods at their disposals to give a response to each other (Mumbai, Parliament attacks etc) and that can not be stopped, ever. Even US has not been able to block the Mexican border with all the gadgetry at its disposal.

      I think JF-17 is the best solution for Pakistan given the situation.

      Comment


        Originally posted by Buran View Post
        At the risk of inflaming this Pakistan/India high school cat fight......

        I think we are comparing apples with oranges. Pakistan in my opinion does not want to overtake India in military capability, they just need enough to inflict losses to India in any war to unacceptable levels. Neither can give the opponent a decisive blow without being seriously wounded itself.

        We already know that both countries use the best methods at their disposals to give a response to each other (Mumbai, Parliament attacks etc) and that can not be stopped, ever. Even US has not been able to block the Mexican border with all the gadgetry at its disposal.

        I think JF-17 is the best solution for Pakistan given the situation.
        Well, it's not like anyone believes that the PAF could ever deal a decisive blow to the IAF. But the question is will it be able to prevent the IAF from having an overwhelming advantage in any future war scenario. The IAF may incur serious losses but would the PAF be left as a fighting force? Agreed that today the PAF isn't quite as weak as it was during the Kargil War, but what about 2025? the IAF in 2025 will look quite a bit different from what it does today, so what are the realistic options to stay at par technologically at least, if not numerically (which will be impossible).

        Asymmetric warfare using "non-state" actors is a tactic that Pakistan will never stop using. But that has nothing to do with the situation in the air. The PAF is banking very heavily on the JF-17 but just how good will it be against the FGFA, Super-30, Rafale or Su-30MKI leave alone the Mirage-2000-5, MiG-29UPG, Tejas Mk2 or a MiG-29K? In sheer numbers alone, the Super-30 and Su-30MKI fleet will be larger than the entire JF-17 fleet.

        Banking on the F-16 to provide the cutting edge out to 2030 seems like a proposition fraught with risk. If the relationship with the US deteriorates and spares and weapons supplies stop, then what happens to the PAF?

        Comment


          Originally posted by BlackArcher View Post
          Well, it's not like anyone believes that the PAF could ever deal a decisive blow to the IAF. But the question is will it be able to prevent the IAF from having an overwhelming advantage in any future war scenario. The IAF may incur serious losses but would the PAF be left as a fighting force? Agreed that today the PAF isn't quite as weak as it was during the Kargil War, but what about 2025? the IAF in 2025 will look quite a bit different from what it does today, so what are the realistic options to stay at par technologically at least, if not numerically (which will be impossible).

          Asymmetric warfare using "non-state" actors is a tactic that Pakistan will never stop using. But that has nothing to do with the situation in the air. The PAF is banking very heavily on the JF-17 but just how good will it be against the FGFA, Super-30, Rafale or Su-30MKI leave alone the Mirage-2000-5, MiG-29UPG, Tejas Mk2 or a MiG-29K? In sheer numbers alone, the Super-30 and Su-30MKI fleet will be larger than the entire JF-17 fleet.

          Banking on the F-16 to provide the cutting edge out to 2030 seems like a proposition fraught with risk. If the relationship with the US deteriorates and spares and weapons supplies stop, then what happens to the PAF?
          2030? Hand on heart had a Pakistani had told me 15 years ago that they will have the following, I would have laughed at their face.

          - 4 Air to air refulers
          - 5+ AWACS from 2 countries
          - 70+ F-16s including Block 52s
          - Air launched cruise missiles
          - Ground Launched cruise missiles
          - 500+ BVR missiles
          - 100 New Anti radiation missiles
          - Tactical nuclear weapons (Nasr? etc)

          Each and every purchase above has been a surprise. And if Indians are only preparing based on the assumptions in the last few posts, than god help them.
          Last edited by Buran; 9th October 2014, 14:02.

          Comment


            Originally posted by Buran View Post
            2030? Hand on heart had a Pakistani had told me 15 years ago that they will have the following, I would have laughed at their face.

            - 4 Air to air refulers
            - 5+ AWACS from 2 countries
            - 70+ F-16s including Block 52s
            - Air launched cruise missiles
            - Ground Launched cruise missiles
            - 500+ BVR missiles
            - 100 New Anti radiation missiles
            - Tactical nuclear weapons (Nasr? etc)

            Each and every purchase above has been a surprise. And if Indians are only preparing based on the assumptions in the last few posts, than god help them.
            It has been a surprise to the online Pakistani defence enthusiast community no doubt, but the Indian Air Force, not so much. India built up its capabilities keeping these in mind.

            In most cases above, the stuff you are quoting is barely equal to capabilities India operationalized first & has trained extensively on & even moved beyond the first level.
            100 ARMs for instance - these are barely sufficient for any full scale war, given the expenditure for concentric AD and that they don't have loitering capability. India inducted ARMs eons back & has now moved to UAVs/drones like Harop which have loitering capability & are hence far more capable (you'd need many salvos of ARMs to accomplish the same).

            The point is that if "deterrence" via acquisitions is what PAF is after, that ship has sailed a long time back. Both in quantity & tech, India is now ahead in most respects. Since the economic gap is widening year on year, the PAF will remain behind as well. Modern tech is frightfully expensive.

            Comment


              Originally posted by Teer View Post
              The point is that if "deterrence" via acquisitions is what PAF is after, that ship has sailed a long time back. Both in quantity & tech, India is now ahead in most respects. Since the economic gap is widening year on year, the PAF will remain behind as well. Modern tech is frightfully expensive.
              Parity is not necessary to achieve an effective deterrent. Nor does Pakistan face India in isolation, but rather with China in the picture as well, drawing much of India's strength away. Also, one of the reasons for Pakistan's decline relative to India is that, as a proportion of GDP, Pakistan now spends on its military less than half what it did 25 years ago, and this is surely something to be applauded.
              Last edited by Rii; 9th October 2014, 22:53.

              Comment


                Originally posted by Teer View Post
                The point is that if "deterrence" via acquisitions is what PAF is after, that ship has sailed a long time back. Both in quantity & tech, India is now ahead in most respects. Since the economic gap is widening year on year, the PAF will remain behind as well. Modern tech is frightfully expensive.

                PAF's charter is to defend. Albeit by attacking, but defend nonetheless. And its plans call for having around a third of the fighters that IAF can throw into the air. Its comfortable with those numbers to deny IAF air superiority.
                It is very difficult to project acquisitions for PAF as they like to spring surprises, but a safe assumption, imho, by 2025 would be:

                120 f-16s
                250 jf17
                40 J-31s (depending on how these mature)

                Thats roughly around the 400 mark fleet that PAF likes to maintain. Keeping the 1:3 ratio in mind, unless IAF fighters cross the 1200 mark by 2025 (which they wont by a wide margin) , PAF wont be losing any sleep.

                Regarding deterrence by acquisition, both PAF and IAF will be in the same boat by 2025. Relying on acquisitions as they currently do.

                Comment


                  Originally posted by Teer View Post
                  It has been a surprise to the online Pakistani defence enthusiast community no doubt, but the Indian Air Force, not so much. India built up its capabilities keeping these in mind.
                  These were a complete surprise for everyone except perhaps the people in intelligence community.

                  If Pakistanis are able to integrate their air launched cruise missile on JF-17 (I understand range over 350km) along with Chinese CM-400 missiles that will give them a standoff capability to attack targets deep inside India so the question of whether they are as good as Indian fighter jets is maybe not as important.

                  On a strategic level what India needs to understand is just like in the climax of action movies, when you are about to face the big villain (China in India's case) even a single stab in the back from their henchmen can prove to be very costly.

                  Comment


                    Rather than the Indians and the Pakistanis trying to project their own insecurities on each other and try to convince the other that its version of reality will pan out, how about we try to place ourselves in the shoes of the PAF and see what we would do in their place? Given this region of the world, strategic interests of many countries can change quite dramatically in the span of even a few years, and this has had a significant impact on Pakistan and the PAF in particular. India is not immune to shifting geopolitical changes in the region, but has been impacted to a lesser degree than Pakistan over the past few decades.

                    I think we all know the limitations imposed on the PAF, primarily financial and the threat of sanctions, especially from Western nations and the US in particular. In light of the historical precedents, Pakistan could be subjected to greater isolation, or it could be viewed as a partner again for whatever may happen in the future. The worst case scenario is that the US imposes deep sanctions on Pakistan, severely impacting the Viper fleet of the PAF, as happened in the 90s. The best case scenario would be greater access to trade, equipment and maybe even military assistance packages. The most likely scenario is a continuation of the current luke warm relationship with the US, given the threat of greater instability in the region affecting Pakistan, resulting in the collapse of the state, similar to Somalia or Syria perhaps.

                    The PAF's most reliable supplier of hardware has been China, and that isn't likely to change in the foreseeable future, at least not on the face of it. Worst case scenario would be if China shifts its strategic interests and alliances in the region, causing a significant reversal of its traditional policy towards Pakistan. Best case scenario would be greater access to cheap credit facilities and maybe even subsidising future procurement programmes for the PAF. The most likely scenario is the continuation of the strong and reliable relationship with China, with a larger proportion of the future PAF comprising fighters derived from future Chinese projects.

                    In light of these conditions, if I had the job of steering the PAF's future, it would be similar to what the current projection appears to be, i.e. consolidate and strengthen the Viper fleet through the acquisition of used Vipers, but ones with plenty of life left in their airframes, and put them through MLU. The Viper will still be around for a good few decades yet, and amongst nations with good relations with the PAF, so in the case of sanctions, spares availability may not be as great an issue as it was a couple of decades ago. However, I wouldn't make the PAF overly dependent on a single Western type that is exposed to such risk, so maybe a little less than a third of the entire fleet would comprise Vipers.

                    If the JF-17 project continues as planned, this would be the most numerous type in the service with the PAF. The development plan provided by Yang Wei, the project head of the JF-17/FC-1 suggests a roadmap with decent growth in the capabilities aircraft, such as AESA, engine, avionics, weapons etc. That leaves space for a third "high-end" type to supplement the Vipers and the JF-17. Over the past few years, that was assumed to be a PAF specific J-10/FC-20. However, despite mixed news reports of that possibility being on again/off again due to either financial reasons, or (given the speed of other Chinese fifth gen projects) the PAF wanting to skip another fourth gen type and wait for something like the J-31, nothing has happened in the meantime. True, it would make sense for the PAF to opt for a Chinese derived fifth gen type. But I would consider other options. Given the strengthening relationship between the Turkish aerospace defence sector and PAF/PAC, the TFX may be a viable option. This would provide good access to Western derived technology, but perhaps offset any sanction risks somewhat. However, the major challenge for this option would be funding, it's likely to be expensive and I doubt the Turkish government would be willing to offer any lines of credit, at least not to the same extent as China. Another option, although an outlier, would be to consider something like the Gripen NG. Although not a true fifth gen type some would say, it would come pretty close in terms of performance and capability, but with cheap operating costs, not to mention the integration with the Erieyes and perhaps any future upgrade of these or follow-on acquisitions. The major obstacle to this would be the high acquisition costs. Another option to consider, and perhaps one not so far fetched, would be to become the third partner in the KFX programme along with Indonesia. Similar to the TFX option, this would allow access to relatively high end technology, but with fewer risks of sanctions. However, the same obstacles apply here, i.e. costs and funding. But if Pakistan could come close matching the contribution of Indonesia, that could lower costs all round for the partners. In addition, the KFX and TFX options could also bring along opportunities for license production and work share agreements, similar to what PAC is doing with the K-8, JF-17 and Turkish UAVs.

                    So if it were me, I would plan for something along the lines of (approximate numbers):

                    100 Vipers - all upgraded to a Block-52 type standard.
                    250 JF-17s - all upgraded to Block-3/4 according to the current plan.
                    100 J-31/Gripen NG/TFX/KFX.

                    Comment


                      Guys ... can we come back to reality !!!

                      How on earth could You expect 100 J-31 or even 40 by around 2025 ???

                      There is so far one prototype, maybe a second one currently in final assembly, it is not even sure how this project is financed - as a private venture by SAC alone (what I can't believe), or as an expected to be export-type only ... or even (what I actually believe the most) a secretly PLA-founded project - but anyway it will take years alone to refine the design (most of all the engines), to finalize the flight testing, ... even more operational testing.

                      And You already expect so many in only about 10-12 years from now for an export airforce ??? Not even so many J-10B's were manufactured, tested and operational right after its maiden flight in 2008. That's a timeframe of already more than 5 years and this one is based on a proved design !

                      Therefore ... stay realistically !

                      Deino
                      ...

                      He was my North, my South, my East and West,
                      My working week and my Sunday rest,
                      My noon, my midnight, my talk, my song;
                      I thought that love would last forever; I was wrong.

                      The stars are not wanted now; put out every one:
                      Pack up the moon and dismantle the sun;
                      Pour away the ocean and sweep up the woods:
                      For nothing now can ever come to any good.
                      -------------------------------------------------
                      W.H.Auden (1945)

                      Comment


                        Originally posted by Deino View Post
                        Guys ... can we come back to reality !!!

                        How on earth could You expect 100 J-31 or even 40 by around 2025 ???

                        There is so far one prototype, maybe a second one currently in final assembly, it is not even sure how this project is financed - as a private venture by SAC alone (what I can't believe), or as an expected to be export-type only ... or even (what I actually believe the most) a secretly PLA-founded project - but anyway it will take years alone to refine the design (most of all the engines), to finalize the flight testing, ... even more operational testing.

                        And You already expect so many in only about 10-12 years from now for an export airforce ??? Not even so many J-10B's were manufactured, tested and operational right after its maiden flight in 2008. That's a timeframe of already more than 5 years and this one is based on a proved design !

                        Therefore ... stay realistically !

                        Deino
                        Deino, even if somehow they did manage to produce 36-40 J-31s, where the hell is the money to buy them gonna come from? KF-X and T-FX will cost even more thank to western engines and some avionics.

                        Comment


                          Originally posted by BlackArcher View Post
                          Deino, even if somehow they did manage to produce 36-40 J-31s, where the hell is the money to buy them gonna come from? KF-X and T-FX will cost even more thank to western engines and some avionics.
                          Yes, ... I only wanted to show the technical side ... the financial and even more political background I left completely out since my point alone makes such a number more than unrealistically.

                          Deino
                          ...

                          He was my North, my South, my East and West,
                          My working week and my Sunday rest,
                          My noon, my midnight, my talk, my song;
                          I thought that love would last forever; I was wrong.

                          The stars are not wanted now; put out every one:
                          Pack up the moon and dismantle the sun;
                          Pour away the ocean and sweep up the woods:
                          For nothing now can ever come to any good.
                          -------------------------------------------------
                          W.H.Auden (1945)

                          Comment


                            I would generally agree with Deino that it is rather optimistic to see 100 J-31s by 2025.

                            But I'll add that between first flight of the FC-1 in 2004 and today, there are 50 JF-17s built. And that included setting up new lines in Pakistan which delayed things as opposed to perhaps J-31s being built entirely in Shenyang.

                            I think everything really depends on the WS-13. We haven't heard anything since the JF-17 test flight with the engine in 2012. If the thing is successful and we see the JF-17 with it in the next several years, the chances of the J-31 ending up in Pakistan in numbers go up.

                            The odds are not really good as we look at it today though. But we never know. The J-31 itself came out of nowhere.
                            http://img61.photobucket.com/albums/...es_cropped.jpg

                            Comment


                              Originally posted by Deino View Post
                              Guys ... can we come back to reality !!!

                              How on earth could You expect 100 J-31 or even 40 by around 2025 ???

                              Deino
                              While I agree that it will be a challenge to have j31 in numbers by 2025, I am very optimistic about the rapid tech progress china is making. I don't believe it is unrealistic to expect around 40 j31by 2025. PAF can wait till 2020 to see how things r progressing before looking at other options. The top preference will remain j31.
                              Last edited by Kaduna2003; 11th October 2014, 08:46.

                              Comment


                                Originally posted by BlackArcher View Post
                                Deino, even if somehow they did manage to produce 36-40 J-31s, where the hell is the money to buy them gonna come from? KF-X and T-FX will cost even more thank to western engines and some avionics.
                                Pak def budget is more then enough to cover this. More so by 2025.
                                No pricing out yet but 40 j31s expected to cost around 2.5B mark. Spread over 10years that's 250m a year. Very very affordable. And great value for money as always from china.

                                Comment


                                  Some interesting points in an article on the JF-17 from the November issue of Combat Aircraft, by Rogier Westerhuis interviewing Wing Commander Ronald of the PAF, commander of 16 Squadron, 'Black Panthers'.

                                  - The JF-17 has been the fastest development programme of a modern fighter aircraft in recent history. The contract was signed in 1999, design finalised in 2001, first prototype flew in 2003. Six SBP aircraft delivered in 2008, raising the Test and Evaluation Flight. Serial production started in PAC in 2008, first PAC built example delivered in 2009. First squadron, 26 'Black Spiders', raised in 2010 and 16 squadron following in 2011, designated a multi-role function.

                                  - PAC has co-developed a full mission simulator for the JF-17.

                                  - Hybrid digital/analogue FBW, with digital in pitch.

                                  - RD-93 produces 22,000lb thrust (98kN), giving a TWR of 1:1.1 and short take off capability.

                                  - HOTAS, full glass cockpit with 3x colour MFDs. Weapons and mission computers, GPS/INS navigation, wide band radios, comprehensive self-protection suite with chaff/flare dispensers and missile approach warning. The KG-300G self-protection jammer pod has been integrated, as well as NVG compatible cockpit.

                                  - PAC co-developed and co-produces the KLJ-7(V)2 radar with Nanjiang, currently equips the JF-17. X-band multi-mode radar with capability to scan 40 targets, track 10 and engage 2 at the same time. Terrain avoidance mode, along with air to sea.

                                  - Improved SD-10A under testing and integration. Laser designator and targeting pod integrated, allowing the use of LT-1 and LT-3 LGBs, as well as LS-6 GPS/INS guided bomb. Currently integrating the CM-400AKG hypersonic anti-ship and stand-off land attack missile, range of 180-250km, at over mach 4.

                                  - Next batch of 50 Block-II currently underway at PAC. Modification include IFR probe, improved avionics, strengthened wing roots to allow an additional 3,000lb in stores to be carried, improved maintenance and operational capabilities. Additional payload takes max payload to 11,816lb (5,360kg).

                                  - PAC has capacity to build 16 to 25 aircraft per year.

                                  - A twin seater in currently under development in China.
                                  Last edited by Alpha Bravo; 11th October 2014, 16:26.

                                  Comment


                                    From what I have seen in other sources, that RD-93 figure is inflated and very suspect.
                                    sigpic

                                    Comment


                                      Yeah, by who or when was the thrust of RD-93 increased to no less than 10 tons, when the CURRENT russian standard RD-33MK is rated at 9 tons and the improved MKM is said to be 9.5 tons ? I could have sort-of bought that the RD-93 as delivered to China would be some improved version based on MK and rated at 9 tons, but TEN? I don't think do. It may well be that the chinese WS-13 might go to 10 tons, but as far as one can make out, the series production of this engine has not even started yet.

                                      Also, as i understand it there is NO BVR missile operational for the JF-17s produced so far (as stated SD-10A is still in testing/ integration), some pakistani sources allege that the earlier SD-10 have been integrated, but i think this statement is rather fishy (anyone seen a JF-17 on QRA with SD-10?). I guess there's some salt grains to be taken in regards to certain statements coming from the pakistani side...
                                      --------------
                                      NO to NATO
                                      NO to WAR!

                                      Comment


                                        Originally posted by TR1 View Post
                                        From what I have seen in other sources, that RD-93 figure is inflated and very suspect.
                                        It seems consistent with the claim from Klimov at the Zuhai 2010 airshow. It's either a mistake/misquote on the part of Klimov, or I'm guessing there has been some form of modification to the baseline RD-93 which provides the extra thrust. The higher thrust figure has cropped up consistently in other previous articles on the JF-17.

                                        Comment


                                          Originally posted by mack8 View Post
                                          Also, as i understand it there is NO BVR missile operational for the JF-17s produced so far (as stated SD-10A is still in testing/ integration), some pakistani sources allege that the earlier SD-10 have been integrated, but i think this statement is rather fishy (anyone seen a JF-17 on QRA with SD-10?). I guess there's some salt grains to be taken in regards to certain statements coming from the pakistani side...
                                          It's true, there does seem to be some confusion/ambiguity from the PAF as to whether the SD-10 is already operational on the JF-17. The Combat Aicraft article would suggest that it is not and still in the process of integration. But we have seen the JF-17 with a training round of the SD-10, which would suggest that the current Block-1s are being used for training pilots on the SD-10 at least. So not sure what the actual status is.
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