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2019 F-35 News and Discussion

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  • bring_it_on
    2005-year of the RAPTOR!!
    • Jun 2004
    • 12426

    Originally posted by halloweene View Post
    Money left for c2d2. NAvy attituce.Sry can't elaborate, really too busy atm.
    Do elaborate when you have time to put together something that makes sense.
    Old radar types never die; they just phased array

    Comment

    • SpudmanWP
      Rank 5 Registered User
      • Jan 2009
      • 5171

      Amid 737 Woes, Complaint Filed Against Shanahan for Allegedly Promoting Boeing
      13 Mar 2019
      Military.com | By Oriana Pawlyk
      A government ethics organization has filed a formal complaint asking the Defense Department Inspector General's Office to investigate Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan's ties to his former employer, Boeing Co. The group, Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW), claims Shanahan violated ethics rules by promoting the company's interests at the Pentagon.
      More at the JUMP
      https://www.military.com/daily-news/...ng-boeing.html
      "The early bird gets the worm but the second mouse gets the cheese."

      Comment

      • halloweene
        Rank 5 Registered User
        • Jan 2012
        • 4105

        http://www.airforcemag.com/Features/...Shortfall.aspx

        F-15 fill capability shortfall as per Dunford.

        THAT one is from de Briganti.

        http://www.defense-aerospace.com/art...r-running.html

        pentagon-cuts-f_35-funding-for-third-year-running.html

        The F-15EX initially would only be slightly cheaper to buy than a new F-35, it will be more than 50 percent cheaper than the Joint Strike Fighter to operate over its life. Additionally, it has twice as many hours in terms of how long it lasts.
        Last edited by halloweene; 15th March 2019, 08:19.

        Comment

        • bring_it_on
          2005-year of the RAPTOR!!
          • Jun 2004
          • 12426

          Originally posted by halloweene View Post
          .

          http://www.defense-aerospace.com/art...r-running.html

          pentagon-cuts-f_35-funding-for-third-year-running.html
          Briganti is an agenda driven idiot so anything that comes out of his little obscure blog must be taken with a bucket full of salt, especially on a forum where folks strive for a more technical level of discussion on aerospace and defense matters. The idiot was, as recently as a couple of months ago, insinuating that the lack of operational details being released meant that the USMC was essentially doing nothing on the Essex out in CENTCOM AOR when in fact they were supporting combat ops in two theaters for an extended period of time...

          What the fool does not seem to understand (or probably does but has an agenda...) is that those images linked are comparing "ENACTED" to "REQUESTED" which is not the same thing.

          Yes the US DOD is asking 78 F-35's this year. No it did not ask for 93 F-35's last year (that is the number it ended up with after Congressional plus ups). In fact, it asked for 77 :



          No, the USAF is not asking for fewer F-35A's this year. It asked for 48 F-35A's last year, and it has requested 48 again this year.

          Now coming to the SAR's...the USAF said (based on the last F-35 SAR) that it would request 48 F-35A's in FY20 and that is exactly the number it has requested. The DON in fact, has requested 6 fewer F-35's likely B variants but that is probably a budget balancing decision for the DON given other F-35 and non F-35 related priorities.

          So what is the overall program spend compared to last year (Requested)?

          The requested amount is 5% higher than what was requested last year something that Brigganti completely fails to mention (why would he?) -




          So where is the discrepancy? The variance comes from REQUESTED vs ENACTED. The last 3-4 enacted budgets have all TOPPED OFF F-35 orders compared to the requested amount. The USAF for example has received 56 aircraft each year vs a requested amount of 48 or less. In fact, it has received 23 additional F-35A's over 3 fiscal year enacted budgets compared to what was requested. They even thank the Congress for this in their budget rollout presentation.

          So it should be clear that an enacted to requested comparison is deeply flawed and one should either compare enacted to enacted or requested to requested. Most who are deeply interested or informed in the DOD budgeting process do know that the FY20 enacted budget will likely have the F-35 count closer to last year's 93 than the current requested amount. In fact this budget will take a long time to be finalized as pre-election year two-year deals usually take a long long time. I've opined in the other thread that the USAF will likely end up with 100+ F-35A's in the two-year budget deal so it will likely be 50-55 F-35A's in FY20 and FY21 each. The USMC is also likely to have its F-35B # restored.

          5-10 minutes of searching the web is all that is needed to completely demolish Brigganti's premise that the F-35 count in the budget is decreasing or has decreased for the last years.

          Of course Brigganit has his base of cheerleaders who make sure this sort of garbage gets traction and consumes unnecessary bandwidth when all this should be quite obvious as the same thing (enacted vs requested) comes up on these threads every budget season. But I guess some just cannot resist...

          Something to remember for future discussions on FY20 and perhaps beyond - The F-35 requested amount is generally less than the F-35 enacted amount in the final NDAA. Congress has historically added aircraft. It added 16 aircraft to the requested budget last year. The year before that, Congress added 20 aircraft. The US services have been receiving 90 or more F-35's in the last two enacted budgets. No one should expect that FY20 to have anything dramatically different than that..same should also be true for FY21. Beyond FY21, the requested to enacted amounts will likely be closer than they have been in the past..
          Last edited by bring_it_on; 15th March 2019, 14:59.
          Old radar types never die; they just phased array

          Comment

          • halloweene
            Rank 5 Registered User
            • Jan 2012
            • 4105

            Hey do not shoot the messenger, i even mentioned it was from Briganti before linking it.

            Comment

            • bring_it_on
              2005-year of the RAPTOR!!
              • Jun 2004
              • 12426

              Originally posted by halloweene View Post
              Hey do not shoot the messenger, i even mentioned it was from Briganti before linking it.
              Briganti is a questionable source on anything related to the F-35 and has demonstrated his bias over and over again. He is also not afraid to resort to being disingenuous, bordering the untruth if that is what it takes to pursue his agenda. Going back and bringing up his work over and over again (even dipping into the archives to pull something from a year ago that has already been discussed here on this forum) is something that could very easily be construed as an attempt to trying to peddle his agenda...

              Anyhow, here's a chart that shows the Enacted vs Requested dynamic I mentioned earlier...Briganti has essentially been playing with data and distorting facts to fit his agenda, but his usual incompetence means that most reasonably well informed folks can get to the bottom of this by spending a few minutes on google -

              An expected late 2019 Milestone C decision will likely push the "enacted" to over 100 aircraft by FY21.

              Last edited by bring_it_on; 15th March 2019, 18:43.
              Old radar types never die; they just phased array

              Comment

              • St. John
                Rank 4 Registered User
                • Jan 2018
                • 554

                Originally posted by bring_it_on View Post
                An expected late 2019 Milestone C decision will likely push the "enacted" to over 100 aircraft by FY21.
                Are those figures just for US or total?

                Comment

                • bring_it_on
                  2005-year of the RAPTOR!!
                  • Jun 2004
                  • 12426

                  Originally posted by St. John View Post
                  Are those figures just for US or total?
                  Just US (USAF, USN and USMC).
                  Old radar types never die; they just phased array

                  Comment

                  • bring_it_on
                    2005-year of the RAPTOR!!
                    • Jun 2004
                    • 12426



                    The 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit made history with the first combat deployment of the F-35B Lightning II. The 13th MEU is a flexible crisis-response force that provides a range of military options to the combatant commander, from humanitarian assistance to combat operations. The 13th MEU returned home from a successful, eight-month deployment where the unit supported operations across four combatant commands.
                    Old radar types never die; they just phased array

                    Comment

                    • bring_it_on
                      2005-year of the RAPTOR!!
                      • Jun 2004
                      • 12426

                      Originally posted by halloweene View Post
                      Money left for c2d2. NAvy attituce.Sry can't elaborate, really too busy atm.
                      US DON (USMC and USN) F-35 C2D2 R&D funding for FY20 = $806 Million, up 74% compared to last year
                      USAF - F-35 C2D2 R&D funding for FY20 - $694 Million (first C2D2 funding for AF)

                      This comes to about $1.5 Billion or roughly 20% of the overall C2D2 obligation based on early 2018 estimate provided by PEO (which could be different from what Ellen Lord sanctioned later that year). With FY19 funding added this climbs to 25+% of the total spend, again based on early 2018 estimate. Once the budget materials are released we can do a deeper dive into C2D2 levels projected in the FYDP, but it should stay within the $1.5 - $2 Billion a year through completion..with some variation depending upon to account for peaks and tails..

                      Must be some Navy "attitude" when they increased their planned spending by 74% YOY.
                      Last edited by bring_it_on; 16th March 2019, 02:28.
                      Old radar types never die; they just phased array

                      Comment

                      • Bayar
                        Rank 5 Registered User
                        • Oct 2014
                        • 813

                        Turkey's Undersecretary for Defense Industries says Turkey would prefer co-production of the S-400 and S-500 with Russia any day of the week- over mere procurement of the F-35 from Lockheed Martin and that it was not the end of the world if the remainder of Turkey's F-35's were not delivered by the US. He added that Turkey's priority was "operational sovereignty" and "technology transfer".

                        It is now safe to say that but for the 2 F-35's that have already been delivered to Turkey- Turkey will not be a partner in the JSF consortium in the near future.

                        Comment

                        • FBW
                          FBW
                          Rank 5 Registered User
                          • Dec 2011
                          • 3140

                          It is now safe to say that but for the 2 F-35's that have already been delivered to Turkey- Turkey will not be a partner in the JSF consortium in the near future.
                          Couldnt be happier with that outcome. Good luck to Turkey in all their future aerospace endeavors, and to finding and training an entirely new cadre of pilots to replace the hundreds purged. The S-400 is probably a better choice since no one is left to fly the F-35s ordered.

                          All thats left now is funding the repurchase of those two Turkish F-35 as they will never be able to leave US soil.

                          Comment

                          • Bayar
                            Rank 5 Registered User
                            • Oct 2014
                            • 813

                            Originally posted by FBW View Post

                            Couldnt be happier with that outcome. Good luck to Turkey in all their future aerospace endeavors, and to finding and training an entirely new cadre of pilots to replace the hundreds purged. The S-400 is probably a better choice since no one is left to fly the F-35s ordered.

                            All thats left now is funding the repurchase of those two Turkish F-35 as they will never be able to leave US soil.
                            Turkish officials are talking about $12 billion in damages for payments made thus far into the program and breach of contract. These funds will be put towards the TF-X (MMU).

                            P.S.

                            The so-called purged Turkish Air Force ran large scale bombing raids in Iraq involving 70 F-16's per mission several days after the coup attempt and purge. The coup occured on 15 July the aerial bombing began on 25 July.

                            On Jul. 25, a third wave of air strikes was launched against PKK: it was divided into three sub-waves, the first and second of those involved 70 F-16s that conducted their mission, returned to Dyarbakir were re-armed and re-launched, and by a third wave reportedly conducted by 25 F-4E-2020 Phantoms from Eskisehir, temporarily deployed to Erhac. https://theaviationist.com/2015/08/0...-is-pkk-raids/
                            Last edited by Bayar; 16th March 2019, 11:15.

                            Comment

                            • bring_it_on
                              2005-year of the RAPTOR!!
                              • Jun 2004
                              • 12426

                              Originally posted by Bayar View Post
                              It is now safe to say that but for the 2 F-35's that have already been delivered to Turkey- Turkey will not be a partner in the JSF consortium in the near future.
                              Awesome! I wouldn't be too confident about those 2 F-35A's either, or about that $12 Billion.


                              Old radar types never die; they just phased array

                              Comment

                              • halloweene
                                Rank 5 Registered User
                                • Jan 2012
                                • 4105

                                Italy stopped payin consortium in january. Consequently 2 new italian F-35 are grounded.

                                So, correctly if i'm wrong.

                                Italy is braking hard.

                                Turkey is up to leave.

                                Poland will soon jump in

                                Spain also for their marine. (at least, but i do not think they will have a share in FCAS if they buy F-35 for their Air Force)

                                I'm dubious about swiss and Finland
                                Last edited by halloweene; 16th March 2019, 13:42.

                                Comment

                                • bring_it_on
                                  2005-year of the RAPTOR!!
                                  • Jun 2004
                                  • 12426

                                  Does it really matter at this point? We are talking about single digit percentage deviations on a 5 year horizon and basically no significant deviation on a 10 year horizon as buyers are always expected to change their long term projections and new buyers expected to come in. The program will deliver 131 aircraft this year and going into full-rate production, which should be sanctioned by late this year, or early next year, it will deliver more than 150. I mean we aren't talking about a program that is producing 18-24 aircraft like the SH or others where deviations of 4-8 a year have significant consequences..If someone wants to slow down their orders, or if a customer is kicked out, then that will not really change much in the larger context. Same with new customers coming on board..It may impact LMs stock price a little and also their botttom line but in the larger context of producing the aircraft and delivery rates it will unlikely have any significant impact..We are getting to a point where the DOD is going to begin ordering the aircraft at a rate of 100+ a year. Whether partner/FMS orders on a given year are 30% above that, or 50% will naturally vary but long term many markets have yet to be even included in the program (Singapore, Middle-East etc etc.)..

                                  Ideal DOD rate should be 150 aircraft a year with exports on top of that. They don't plan on getting up that high fast, but I think that is the most important metric (how close the DOD orders get to 150 and by when) to look at then export or FMS sales and their variations over time. The closest I see the DOD getting there is under a more optimistic and somewhat less likely scenario in the 2025 time-frame where they get to around 130 aircraft requested (80 AF, and 50 DON) which is about 25 more than the last SAR projected them to be at but that document was pre-NDS.
                                  Last edited by bring_it_on; 16th March 2019, 14:25.
                                  Old radar types never die; they just phased array

                                  Comment

                                  • Bayar
                                    Rank 5 Registered User
                                    • Oct 2014
                                    • 813

                                    Originally posted by bring_it_on View Post

                                    Awesome! I wouldn't be too confident about those 2 F-35A's either, or about that $12 Billion.

                                    Turkey does not have a viable use for the 2 F-35's anyway.... As far as I know Turkish ground crews and pilots are currently training on the 4 F-35's in the US. This gives Turkey a great insight into how the F-35's operate. This is the only use that has come out of Turkey's F-35 program.

                                    Click image for larger version  Name:	5bb30dd767b0a81c84793aec.jpg Views:	0 Size:	73.2 KB ID:	3856080

                                    As for the US rejecting any International Court decision on the payment of damages...I don't think it would get to this stage. The US will still maintain some relations with Turkey despite the F-35.

                                    Comment

                                    • Bayar
                                      Rank 5 Registered User
                                      • Oct 2014
                                      • 813

                                      Originally posted by bring_it_on View Post
                                      Does it really matter at this point? We are talking about single digit percentage deviations on a 5 year horizon and basically no significant deviation on a 10 year horizon as buyers are always expected to change their long term projections and new buyers expected to come in. The program will deliver 131 aircraft this year and going into full-rate production, which should be sanctioned by late this year, or early next year, it will deliver more than 150. I mean we aren't talking about a program that is producing 18-24 aircraft like the SH or others where deviations of 4-8 a year have significant consequences..If someone wants to slow down their orders, then that will not really change much in the larger context. Same with new customers coming on board..It may impact LMs stock price a little and also their botttom line but in the larger context of producing the aircraft and delivery rates it will unlikely have any significant impact..We are getting to a point where the DOD is going to begin ordering the aircraft at a rate of 100+ a year. Whether partner/FMS orders on a given year are 30% above that, or 50% will naturally vary but long term many markets have yet to be even included in the program (Singapore, Middle-East etc etc.)..

                                      Ideal DOD rate should be 150 aircraft a year with exports on top of that. They don't plan on getting up that high fast, but I think that is the most important metric (how close the DOD orders get to 150 and by when) to look at then export or FMS sales and their variations over time.
                                      You guys are forgetting the 150 Aircraft order from Japan.

                                      Comment

                                      • FBW
                                        FBW
                                        Rank 5 Registered User
                                        • Dec 2011
                                        • 3140

                                        halloweene
                                        the Italian payment issue is more of an internal funding issue than a deliberate act toward Italys participation in the program.

                                        As far as competitions. Id agree on the Swiss. Disagree on Finland. I think the F-35 has a better than even chance. Considering all factors, including foreign policy, Id say the Gripen and F-35 are the two most likely. Dassaults biggest hurtles are Finlands stockpile of US ordinance.

                                        Comment

                                        • LMFS
                                          Rank 4 Registered User
                                          • Feb 2018
                                          • 247

                                          Originally posted by Bayar View Post
                                          Turkey's Undersecretary for Defense Industries says Turkey would prefer co-production of the S-400 and S-500 with Russia any day of the week- over mere procurement of the F-35 from Lockheed Martin and that it was not the end of the world if the remainder of Turkey's F-35's were not delivered by the US. He added that Turkey's priority was "operational sovereignty" and "technology transfer".

                                          It is now safe to say that but for the 2 F-35's that have already been delivered to Turkey- Turkey will not be a partner in the JSF consortium in the near future.
                                          Wow, that sounds very conclusive, do you think is that serious? Do you mean a definitive abandonment of F-35 program?

                                          And how is Turkey expected to substitute the gap left by the F-35, is there a plan at all that you know? I mean, apart from AF you were expecting to buy the STOVL version too for the navy, right?
                                          Last edited by LMFS; 16th March 2019, 15:48.

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