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  • haavarla
    Rank 5 Registered User
    • Dec 2008
    • 6672

    Originally posted by LMFS View Post
    KnAAPO has been delivering more than 10 Su-35 per year at ease, I dont think this order would be a challenge at all. In fact the Su-57 has way less pieces than the Su-35, so it should be faster to manufacture.

    About the further orders, well, officials just keep saying it will substitute the Flanker and will be produced and updated for the next decades, so the only logical outcome is that they keep ordering them at a somehow similar pace when this order is completed, as they do for their other fighters.

    About India, again, they did not withdraw, at least officially, just put the program in stand by, and they admitted they may restart it later or simply buy off-the-shelf.
    in reality the output was more like 16 Su-35S in one year. They supplied 6 or 8 units for VKS, the rest for China(and possible Indonesia).

    But just remember the Flanker linage is a well proven design, the Su-57 is not. It takes years to set up the prod line and make it efficient, years..


    Thanks

    Comment

    • TomcatViP
      Rank 5 Registered User
      • Nov 2011
      • 6065

      Originally posted by Marcellogo View Post

      TU QUOQUE TOMCATE!


      My remark was more on the fact that the number are far less looking ambitious than what we got used with the old days. Such a modest output would mean that the cost of systems will stay high and would remain marginal in their expected fall out for the Russian civilian industry. If I can understand that many thing can happen until then, it's usually a larger order that is announced first before being eventually trimmed or even cancelled later.

      The 57 is a fantastic airframe and, as an aviation fan, I would be disappointed not to see them flying in squadrons.

      Comment

      • haavarla
        Rank 5 Registered User
        • Dec 2008
        • 6672

        Originally posted by ClanWarrior View Post

        I did not know that India were looking at buying the Su-57 after cancelling the FGFA program, Its weird.
        RF plans to bring the Su-57 to the external market, but later

        Moscow. June 10th. INTERFAX-AVN - The export of a fifth-generation Russian fighter, the Su-57, is planned, but only after it is put into service, Deputy Prime Minister Yury Borisov told Interfax.
        We are working in this direction, we have plans in the strategy for moving along the military-technical cooperation, but the time will come we will advance. While the Su-35 is doing well, we dont see any reason to undermine our own market. There will be a need we always have a trump card ", - said Borisov, answering the question about the withdrawal of the Su-57 to the international market.
        There is a rule that before adopting it we never issue (export permission - IF), he said.
        Meanwhile, an informed source had previously informed Interfax that the documents authorizing the export of the fifth-generation Russian fighter, the Su-57, have been agreed.
        Russia may officially present the export version of the Su-57 in November at an air show in Dubai, the British edition Janes reported in March with reference to the director of international cooperation and regional policy of the Rostec state corporation Viktor Kladov.
        Thanks

        Comment

        • RALL
          Rank 4 Registered User
          • Aug 2017
          • 201

          Originally posted by LMFS View Post
          KnAAPO has been delivering more than 10 Su-35 per year at ease, I dont think this order would be a challenge at all. In fact the Su-57 has way less pieces than the Su-35, so it should be faster to manufacture.

          About the further orders, well, officials just keep saying it will substitute the Flanker and will be produced and updated for the next decades, so the only logical outcome is that they keep ordering them at a somehow similar pace when this order is completed, as they do for their other fighters.

          About India, again, they did not withdraw, at least officially, just put the program in stand by, and they admitted they may restart it later or simply buy off-the-shelf.
          Indian program FGFA was cancelled; telling that the program is frozen or it is on stand by is a gentle way to say the same thing.

          https://www.livefistdefence.com/2018...r-project.html

          Comment

          • haavarla
            Rank 5 Registered User
            • Dec 2008
            • 6672

            Originally posted by RALL View Post

            Indian program FGFA was cancelled; telling that the program is frozen or it is on stand by is a gentle way to say the same thing.

            https://www.livefistdefence.com/2018...r-project.html
            Yeah, we can all debate the flavor here, but in the end it is a moot point.
            India will at some point procure this thing(Su-57).
            Last edited by haavarla; 29th June 2019, 17:43.
            Thanks

            Comment

            • LMFS
              Rank 4 Registered User
              • Feb 2018
              • 496

              Originally posted by RALL View Post

              Indian program FGFA was cancelled; telling that the program is frozen or it is on stand by is a gentle way to say the same thing.

              https://www.livefistdefence.com/2018...r-project.html
              We are not saying nothing very different in the end. FGFA was always more a matter of intention than substance. Be it because of PAK-FA being a "fake" 5G as some say or because India was not in a position to develop / pay / profit from the program it is something we will end up knowing some day so not a really relevant point. I remain under the impression that there is no other reasonable option in the short to medium term for India than developing some localization program for the Su-57 along the lines of what we saw with the MKI. Maybe someone creates a 5/5G+ plane that can compete with the Su-57 in the not so long term, but the only one as of today, F-35, comes with so many strings attached that is IMO a no-go (actually from both sides), much more after seeing what happens with Turkey. Local programs are far, far away in the future, as the European programs. Maybe TF-X or KF-X are an alternative but I think they will be qualitatively different and not have the long range component needed to substitute the Su-30 and to be the main air superiority fighter in India.

              My guess is, as soon as VKS receives the first units and export authorization is granted, talks will be restarted, but probably they will wait until second stage engine is operational before taking any decisions.

              Comment

              • Marcellogo
                Rank 5 Registered User
                • Jun 2014
                • 1831

                haavarla;n3866723]

                in reality the output was more like 16 Su-35S in one year. They supplied 6 or 8 units for VKS, the rest for China(and possible Indonesia).

                But just remember the Flanker linage is a well proven design, the Su-57 is not. It takes years to set up the prod line and make it efficient, years..


                No, it reached 20 each year, problem was that Chinese didn't want to wait neither a couple of years to get their own so they had to split production 50/50 until order was fulfilled, actually they ended with 78 consigned last year in front of a total of 98 ordered.


                @ TomcatVIP
                My remark was more on the fact that the number are far less looking ambitious than what we got used with the old days. Such a modest output would mean that the cost of systems will stay high and would remain marginal in their expected fall out for the Russian civilian industry. If I can understand that many thing can happen until then, it's usually a larger order that is announced first before being eventually trimmed or even cancelled later.

                The 57 is a fantastic airframe and, as an aviation fan, I would be disappointed not to see them flying in squadrons.
                A.t.c. the Su-57 order has been saluted in Russia as a decisive depart from this trend, as an example the above mentioned Su-35S were ordered in TWO contracts one of 48 and another of 50, BOTH signed in the framework of 2011-2020 SAP.
                Yes, because it perfectly possible to sign more than a single contract for the same plane in a single SAP, both referring to a single production concern than to different ones.
                In the case of Su-35s things get complicated by the fact that the follow-up SAP was delayed because the conflict in UA, so instead of a 2016-2025 one as it would have been in the regular sequence, it became the 2018-2027 SAP.
                Follow up programs remained in the current one and the ones referring to completely new item were started last year.
                Next SAP however will not be 2028-2037 but 2023-2032, so a new contract would be perfectly possible after the new starting date.
                In any case , given the numbers involved, Su-57 contract seems instead a real bargain, 170B rubles for 76 planes i.e. less than 35 mil $ for plane (is not however all gold what glitters, as in those year ruble get really depreciated compared to $, so no, it would not cost less than a newly produced Su-35S in any case).
                Last edited by Marcellogo; 29th June 2019, 20:53.

                Comment

                • panzerfeist1
                  Rank 6 Registered User
                  • Feb 2018
                  • 351

                  Got the info from
                  magnumcromagnon
                  http://www.russiadefence.net/t2547p4...-radar-systems

                  In case the majority of people did not get any news update more info regarding ROFAR.


                  The age of the RTI's CEO shocks me.
                  I thought the fall of western civilization was a tragedy, now I realize it's a comedy.

                  Comment

                  • RALL
                    Rank 4 Registered User
                    • Aug 2017
                    • 201

                    Originally posted by haavarla View Post

                    Yeah, we can all debate the flavor here, but in the end it is a moot point.
                    India will at some point procure this thing(Su-57).
                    Yes, i am agree, really its no other option for India on the table on short place. They can not buy chineses (J-31 export) products for obvious reason, and F-35 will be not sell to India for obvious reasons too (they will have S-400), so i do not see other option than in 5-10 years make some order for Su-57 with same way than Su-30 orders, with some indian specifications, avionics,..

                    I read some days ago India was interesed for the franco-german -spanish FCAS, but o think it is only rumours because it is a far proyect on this stage and India will need airplanes early.

                    Comment

                    • XB-70
                      Rank 4 Registered User
                      • May 2018
                      • 316

                      RALL - Yes, the FGFA - as the program was defined - is almost certainly dead. But the biggest reason why that is so is because the Indians scoped it as a two seater. They did this because, historically, they've had success with it. But past success really isn't a good reason to keep doing something. I mean, armies have historically had great success with chariots too...but you would never use them on a battlefield now.

                      If you look at the information technology aspect of where all the 5th and 6th gen programs are going, it is all about sensor fusion, pilot assistance, battlespace management and networking - and expanding this on to UAV helpers. The goal is to use the greater processing power to assist the pilot as the weapons officer would have in the past. The goal is to put less people in the line of fire and to give the pilot the ability to have the necessary (and sorted, prioritized) information necessary so that when he does goes in the line of fire he can do so with minimal risk. Having a second man in the cockpit is both retro and useless.

                      Give the Indian military a while longer to watch the other programs while working with the Rafale and they will head down the same path. The Russians likely knew the two seater concept was a mistake from the start. I mean, they never really tried to woo the Indian military by flying a two seater.

                      But in the near future, India has to do one of two things - go with a Su-57 variant (a single seater) or solidly lock in a partnership deal to develop AMCA fast. It's not going to take China more than a few years to solve its engine woes well enough to fight test and field Ws-15. If they do neither, they will lose a lot of power projection capability in SE Asia.

                      Comment

                      • LMFS
                        Rank 4 Registered User
                        • Feb 2018
                        • 496

                        As said, it seems Russia wants to restart the discussions about the 5G fighter with the Indians:

                        https://tass.com/defense/1067657

                        Comment

                        • RALL
                          Rank 4 Registered User
                          • Aug 2017
                          • 201

                          Originally posted by XB-70 View Post
                          RALL - Yes, the FGFA - as the program was defined - is almost certainly dead. But the biggest reason why that is so is because the Indians scoped it as a two seater. They did this because, historically, they've had success with it. But past success really isn't a good reason to keep doing something. I mean, armies have historically had great success with chariots too...but you would never use them on a battlefield now.

                          If you look at the information technology aspect of where all the 5th and 6th gen programs are going, it is all about sensor fusion, pilot assistance, battlespace management and networking - and expanding this on to UAV helpers. The goal is to use the greater processing power to assist the pilot as the weapons officer would have in the past. The goal is to put less people in the line of fire and to give the pilot the ability to have the necessary (and sorted, prioritized) information necessary so that when he does goes in the line of fire he can do so with minimal risk. Having a second man in the cockpit is both retro and useless.

                          Give the Indian military a while longer to watch the other programs while working with the Rafale and they will head down the same path. The Russians likely knew the two seater concept was a mistake from the start. I mean, they never really tried to woo the Indian military by flying a two seater.

                          But in the near future, India has to do one of two things - go with a Su-57 variant (a single seater) or solidly lock in a partnership deal to develop AMCA fast. It's not going to take China more than a few years to solve its engine woes well enough to fight test and field Ws-15. If they do neither, they will lose a lot of power projection capability in SE Asia.
                          Yes, and i read some days ago some chief of the J-31 program telling all is going well about schedules plan. So it will soon be a real threat to Su-57's exports.

                          Comment

                          • panzerfeist1
                            Rank 6 Registered User
                            • Feb 2018
                            • 351

                            "
                            So it will soon be a real threat to Su-57's exports"

                            I mean what countries do you think the Chinese plan on selling the J-31 that is considered a threat to su-57 exports? Looking at their ongoing su-35 purchases, depending on reduced costs of the Su-57 it wont be a surprise to me if the Chinese themselves start purchasing the Su-57s.
                            I thought the fall of western civilization was a tragedy, now I realize it's a comedy.

                            Comment

                            • Deino
                              Rank 5 Registered User
                              • Jan 2000
                              • 4186

                              Originally posted by panzerfeist1 View Post
                              "
                              So it will soon be a real threat to Su-57's exports"

                              I mean what countries do you think the Chinese plan on selling the J-31 that is considered a threat to su-57 exports? Looking at their ongoing su-35 purchases, depending on reduced costs of the Su-57 it wont be a surprise to me if the Chinese themselves start purchasing the Su-57s.
                              You are indeed correct, it remains to be seen, if China will sell the FC-31 (even if it seems by now it is exactly under development for that purpose) however to assume China will buy the Su-57 is plain ridiculous!
                              Hey, did you check the numbers flying operationally already? Given that logic - a reduced cost due to more being built - , it would be more logical that Russia would be interested in the J-20.

                              You guys are indeed funny...

                              ...

                              He was my North, my South, my East and West,
                              My working week and my Sunday rest,
                              My noon, my midnight, my talk, my song;
                              I thought that love would last forever; I was wrong.

                              The stars are not wanted now; put out every one:
                              Pack up the moon and dismantle the sun;
                              Pour away the ocean and sweep up the woods:
                              For nothing now can ever come to any good.
                              -------------------------------------------------
                              W.H.Auden (1945)

                              Comment

                              • Krivakapa
                                Rank 5 Registered User
                                • Apr 2009
                                • 98

                                Originally posted by RALL View Post

                                Yes, and i read some days ago some chief of the J-31 program telling all is going well about schedules plan. So it will soon be a real threat to Su-57's exports.
                                Su-57 will have engine which have more then two times RD-33 thrust, China still don't make engine similar to RD-33. So two AL-51 will have two times more thrust then what J-31 have now!

                                So even if WS-13 deliver promised thrust (~100kN) it would still be 200kN vs 320kN or maybe even 340kN. This allow Su-57 to carry lot more and to have cruise speed better then theoretical max speed of F-35 and I expect J-31 to have similar problems as F-35 with speed.

                                We still don't have info about J-31 weapon bay but it surely isn't spaced as F-35/Su-57 weapon bays, J-31 weapon bay on mockup:
                                https://defense-update.com/wp-conten...eapons-bay.jpg

                                What you can fit in Su-57 bay:
                                https://twitter.com/i/status/1000126889548185600

                                probable two of those per bay:
                                https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DVjO-BxXcAEburG.jpg


                                So how can you consider J-31 as real threat for Su-57 sales? Only if you are here to troll Su-57 we can understand why you wrote that nonsense but if you aren't troll then you really need to check what you are writing before you wrote it.
                                Last edited by Krivakapa; 13th July 2019, 08:14.

                                Comment

                                • blackwood
                                  Rank 5 Registered User
                                  • Dec 2011
                                  • 311

                                  Originally posted by Deino View Post

                                  You are indeed correct, it remains to be seen, if China will sell the FC-31 (even if it seems by now it is exactly under development for that purpose) however to assume China will buy the Su-57 is plain ridiculous!
                                  Hey, did you check the numbers flying operationally already? Given that logic - a reduced cost due to more being built - , it would be more logical that Russia would be interested in the J-20.

                                  You guys are indeed funny...
                                  Russias J-20 will be the Mig-41. Still years away, yes. But they will wait for the Mig-41 and invest in it before buying J-20s.
                                  J-31 is still years away from even having airforce prototypes, only 2 test birds so far, after years. Lets talk when they have 10 flying prototypes and orders from Chineses airforce.

                                  Comment

                                  • Krivakapa
                                    Rank 5 Registered User
                                    • Apr 2009
                                    • 98

                                    There isn't need for MiG-41, in fact MiG-31 can be replaced with less stealthy Su-57 variant, more rugged composite and no RAM on hot sections of airframe, no radar blocker in intake, and bigger spine fuel tank like they did with MiG-31M:
                                    https://testpilot.ru/russia/mikoyan/...s/mig31m-1.jpg


                                    Originally posted by blackwood View Post

                                    Russias J-20 will be the Mig-41. Still years away, yes. But they will wait for the Mig-41 and invest in it before buying J-20s.
                                    J-31 is still years away from even having airforce prototypes, only 2 test birds so far, after years. Lets talk when they have 10 flying prototypes and orders from Chineses airforce.
                                    And they still change design. Newest mock up have not small changes compared to second prototype. Also in interview one of engineer mentioned it could be noticable heavier then prototypes. I really doubt J-31 can match F-35A weight. I expect it would be closer to 15tons.
                                    Last edited by Krivakapa; 13th July 2019, 09:32.

                                    Comment

                                    • Deino
                                      Rank 5 Registered User
                                      • Jan 2000
                                      • 4186

                                      Originally posted by Krivakapa View Post

                                      Su-57 will have engine which have more then two times RD-33 thrust, China still don't make engine similar to RD-33. So two AL-51 will have two times more thrust then what J-31 have now!

                                      So even if WS-13 deliver promised thrust (~100kN) it would still be 200kN vs 320kN or maybe even 340kN. This allow Su-57 to carry lot more and to have cruise speed better then theoretical max speed of F-35 and I expect J-31 to have similar problems as F-35 with speed.

                                      We still don't have info about J-31 weapon bay but it surely isn't spaced as F-35/Su-57 weapon bays, J-31 weapon bay on mockup:
                                      https://defense-update.com/wp-conten...eapons-bay.jpg

                                      What you can fit in Su-57 bay:
                                      https://twitter.com/i/status/1000126889548185600

                                      probable two of those per bay:
                                      https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DVjO-BxXcAEburG.jpg


                                      So how can you consider J-31 as real threat for Su-57 sales? Only if you are here to troll Su-57 we can understand why you wrote that nonsense but if you aren't troll then you really need to check what you are writing before you wrote it.


                                      Point si, that comparing engine thrust is only relevant for boys playing quartets game and here you are correct. The Su-57 is way ahead.

                                      Point however is, which country is willing to invest and even purchase an unproven design, that is at best then in limited service by the Russians themselves? So, if they cannot get hand on the F-35 or have fancy plans on something indigenous, the FC-31 COULD become a interesting, and IMO the only possible alternative.

                                      So in the end it might be irrelevant if the Su-57 is much better on paper than anything else, if it remains unsuccessful, since the RuAF purchases only too few and no other country is willing to risk it.
                                      ...

                                      He was my North, my South, my East and West,
                                      My working week and my Sunday rest,
                                      My noon, my midnight, my talk, my song;
                                      I thought that love would last forever; I was wrong.

                                      The stars are not wanted now; put out every one:
                                      Pack up the moon and dismantle the sun;
                                      Pour away the ocean and sweep up the woods:
                                      For nothing now can ever come to any good.
                                      -------------------------------------------------
                                      W.H.Auden (1945)

                                      Comment

                                      • Krivakapa
                                        Rank 5 Registered User
                                        • Apr 2009
                                        • 98

                                        Originally posted by Deino View Post



                                        Point si, that comparing engine thrust is only relevant for boys playing quartets game and here you are correct. The Su-57 is way ahead.

                                        Point however is, which country is willing to invest and even purchase an unproven design, that is at best then in limited service by the Russians themselves? So, if they cannot get hand on the F-35 or have fancy plans on something indigenous, the FC-31 COULD become a interesting, and IMO the only possible alternative.

                                        So in the end it might be irrelevant if the Su-57 is much better on paper than anything else, if it remains unsuccessful, since the RuAF purchases only too few and no other country is willing to risk it.
                                        Last time I check Russia is getting first Su-57 while J-31 is still is demonstrator phase. If J-31 would be lot cheaper then Su-57 then I can justify it but if it cost similar I really don't see any point of buying J-31 instead Su-57.

                                        Btw Russia is planing to get 76 Su-57 in this first order, I doubt that is final number they will have.

                                        Comment

                                        • XB-70
                                          Rank 4 Registered User
                                          • May 2018
                                          • 316

                                          So it (FC-31) will soon be a real threat to Su-57's exports.
                                          Honestly, RALL, I don't see them competing much at all. They are completely different weapon systems, and are oriented towards different parts of the market. The Su-57 is designed as the logical upgrade for Flanker users - having a large flight endurance and a high payload capacity. It will also appeal to anyone seeking a 5th gen fighter with an internal storage compartment designed for large munitions as well as those who desire a robust sensor platform.

                                          The FC-31, on the other hand, seems to be a "bare bones" type of 5th gen fighter. You get the radar and MAWS...and that's about it. It doesn't have anywhere near the range and it can't carry as much. But (if they finish the design) it should have appeal for those only seeking a cheap 5th gen.

                                          The J-20 would compete better with the Su-57.

                                          Comment

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