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Su-57 News and Discussion -version_we_lost_count!-

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  • haavarla
    Rank 5 Registered User
    • Dec 2008
    • 6631

    Originally posted by Scooter View Post

    Laughable the J-31 will become the backbone of the PLAAF/PLAN. Much like the F-35 will do in the West.....
    Remind us again, how many flying Prototype of J-31 are there today and which type of target Engine are PLAAF planning to operate on it??
    Last edited by haavarla; 15th May 2019, 10:40.
    Thanks

    Comment

    • Jō Asakura
      多聞天
      • Jan 2011
      • 1300

      64 element radio-photonic based AESA:

      Click image for larger version

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      • TR1
        TR1
        http://tiny.cc/tp8kd
        • Oct 2010
        • 9799

        https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/6434341

        Aaaand the process for serial contracts has began, as anyone with a functioning brain knew it would.
        Putin says they are working on contract that will be signed in the near future, for 76 Su-57 by 2028.


        Also stated goal is for 100 Mi-28NM by 2028.
        sigpic

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        • panzerfeist1
          Rank 4 Registered User
          • Feb 2018
          • 305

          TR1 +1

          that is too good to be true as the 100 times lower background noise rofar. I better see new radars and among other new equipment being added besides the new engines before it hits mass production. Your post deserves every like or +1 possible.

          I thought the fall of western civilization was a tragedy, now I realize it's a comedy.

          Comment

          • FBW
            FBW
            Rank 5 Registered User
            • Dec 2011
            • 3260

            Originally posted by TR1 View Post
            https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/6434341

            Aaaand the process for serial contracts has began, as anyone with a functioning brain knew it would.
            Putin says they are working on contract that will be signed in the near future, for 76 Su-57 by 2028.


            Also stated goal is for 100 Mi-28NM by 2028.
            TR-1, the Tass English site does s poor job of translating this for clarity. Does this mean contract will be for 76 aircraft after the current GPV 2027? Or total orders until 2028 will be 76? The article mentions 16 aircraft up to the 2028 plan. Confusing.
            Last edited by FBW; 15th May 2019, 18:50.

            Comment

            • Dr.Snufflebug
              Boggleboople snufflebug
              • Aug 2012
              • 510

              The existing procurement schedule had 16 machines over that period (10 years from 2018). The program has matured enough, and overall costs have shrunk, to accommodate for the procurement of 76 machines over the same period, instead.

              As TR1 says, that the numbers would be revised upwards was expected, really. Everyone with some know-how/insight kept saying this even way back, but that didn't stop dozens of magazines/journals/news sites having a field day with the earlier figures, drawing crazy conclusions and so on.

              The exact same thing can be applied to the T-14 programme. There were tons and tons of headlines all over the place about how Russia apparently can only afford a few odd tanks here and there (ten or so, according to the headlines of the day), and that the whole thing was just an epic failure about to fizzle out... But in Russia things just kept on going as expected and a few months later the first 200 or so were ordered, with more to come.





              Last edited by Dr.Snufflebug; 15th May 2019, 19:18.
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              • TR1
                TR1
                http://tiny.cc/tp8kd
                • Oct 2010
                • 9799

                It quotes Putin as saying the plan was to buy 16 in this GPV, but he and Shoigu in their infinite wisdom lowered prices and are now able to buy way more in the same time frame.

                Really this is just confirmation that there will be a gradual increase as concurrent orders are placed over the next few years. 76 is the goal by 2028. Not clear if this includes the small 117 powered batches that were supposed to trickle in over next few years.

                Also states they want 3 regiments equipped with the plane by 2028.
                sigpic

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                • FBW
                  FBW
                  Rank 5 Registered User
                  • Dec 2011
                  • 3260

                  Thanks to the good doctor and TR1 for the explanation.

                  Comment

                  • XB-70
                    Rank 4 Registered User
                    • May 2018
                    • 264

                    A large purchase like that is a pretty good indication that the tests of Izd 30 is going smoothly. The Su-57 is a looker, so I'll be glad to see start to enter service in numbers in the next several years. But, poor, poor Scooter.


                    Scooter - But, but, but...Russian J-31!

                    Comment

                    • LMFS
                      Rank 4 Registered User
                      • Feb 2018
                      • 401

                      So, it seems Putin's visits of the week resulted in some decisions... I can only imagine the faces of so many prophets of Russian apocalypse now, among them our resident Nostradamus.

                      In the end the doubts expressed by officials about the serial production of the Su-57 were probably more a bluff to press the industry to reduce prices (mission accomplished) than an admission of failure of the program, but Western "experts" swallowed it hook, line and sinker. Should teach a lesson about documenting themselves a bit before starting to sell their propaganda, they look now as full of crap as it gets and have discredited themselves for good.

                      In retrospective:

                      > The leak by TASS some days ago about the signing of a further contract for the Su-57 turned out to be true
                      > Contract would be biggest one for fighter jet in recent times in Russian industry
                      > We should have like 10 planes per year until 2028, probably starting in 2021 after the pilot run is over.
                      > As stated by the KnAAZ guy, all those planes are expected to be retrofitted with second stage engine
                      > Putin confirmed some of us here right when we expected a finished plane to be produced at least in line with other existing jet procurement contracts and not to be left rust. Seems obvious now, I know, but the ones thinking the plane was a mild failure at best were seriously discussing about its demise.
                      > Russia is surely reacting to the increasingly confrontational attitude from US. Probably those three regiments will be placed in air bases in near the most conflictive points around Black Sea, Caucasus and Western border. IIRC Crimea was already named as the place where operational planes would go first.

                      @Panzerfeist: no ROFAR by now. I cannot see this even in the making, it will be at best be retrofitted to the planes in the distant (>>10 years) future. By now they still need to learn how to use and service Byelka

                      Comment

                      • XB-70
                        Rank 4 Registered User
                        • May 2018
                        • 264

                        We should have like 10 planes per year until 2028, probably starting in 2021 after the pilot run is over.
                        Eventually. It will take at least 3-4 years to get the production line up to speed. They've built fighters before, yes, but not like this.

                        Comment

                        • Marcellogo
                          Rank 5 Registered User
                          • Jun 2014
                          • 1811

                          It's a little more complicated, really...
                          Russians place their orders "in the framework of the SAP (state acquisition programme) of 20xx-20xx+10 years programme. Actual is 2018-2027 but in reality every five years there is a complete review, so next should be the 2023-2032 one .
                          And there is not any relation between the number of planes of an order, the duration of the SAP and the number of planes produced in each year: each contract that's is awarded constitute a single act between the MOD and the chosen production concern.

                          In ever case a single order of 76 planes is something absolutely enormous for Russian standard: Su-35 ones were of 48 and 50 respectively.

                          Now, we have a contract for the two first serial planes and one for 76 that they would be signed in a short time, we cannot know, until further notice if the former one for 12/15 is still standing (I think not) but I'm sure that once started, serial production would be conducted at full capability of the assembly line as this is both their usual MO than a precondition for achieving the mentioned cut in plane's individual price.

                          Comment

                          • LMFS
                            Rank 4 Registered User
                            • Feb 2018
                            • 401

                            XB-70

                            They have been preparing for this for a while. The pilot run is already long, two years for two planes. And besides, ten planes per year is not asking the moon. It is within their normal procurement quantities per year, so I guess they should be capable of delivering close to that number relatively soon.

                            Marcellogo

                            Would also think the supposed contract for 13 additional planes will be superseded by this bigger one, Putin is saying the initial quantities as foreseen in the SAP were increased. BTW, when he says "until 2028" it means this will happen within current SAP

                            Comment

                            • XB-70
                              Rank 4 Registered User
                              • May 2018
                              • 264

                              LMFS - I don't think we are that far from agreement. I pretty much see them about doubling production volumes every year until they hit whatever they have targeted for normal production. So, this year they get one and they have one planned for 2020 (but they may advance that to two) and then up the volume each year. So, 3-4 years.

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                              • panzerfeist1
                                Rank 4 Registered User
                                • Feb 2018
                                • 305

                                LMFS

                                it will be at best be retrofitted to the planes in the distant (>>10 years) future" keep in mind mass production of FICs(photonic integrated Circuits) will start somewhere 3-5 years and they have been working with prototypes as early as 2014, there were even talks about the ground radars like the Voronezh-dm being upgraded with that source that I provided on the Russian air force thread. 2023 if I remember correctly is when the flight tests for the izdelie-30 would be completed. Any newer radar they are developing after byelka is going to be based on FICs and they want to be the 1st country to immediately enter the market mass producing these circuits. There is also a likely chance that the byelka was updated since that 2017 kret catalog said we had 5-7 watt transmitters than they said they replaced them with 20 watt GaN MMICs but no one knows which radar they were talking about but it sure as hell wont be the 6th gen version so that might narrow some things down eventually but until than hope some good information will be revealed for their next airshow
                                I thought the fall of western civilization was a tragedy, now I realize it's a comedy.

                                Comment

                                • LMFS
                                  Rank 4 Registered User
                                  • Feb 2018
                                  • 401

                                  Making some numbers, 2 already ordered serial planes + 76 of the upcoming contract make 78 units, which would result nicely in three regiments with two squadrons each, being the squadrons 12 + 1 (reserve) strong. Makes sense?

                                  XB-70

                                  Yep, broadly agree

                                  panzerfeist1

                                  Sure they are working on it, and will be producing technological demonstrators in next 5 years, with luck a prototype in the next 10. But technological steps like this are quite complex and big, and advance quite slowly. Industry does not jump into the void selling devices that have long term issues and send them bankrupt, and I am not talking out of thin air here. Military are even more restrictive. And Russia does not depend on silver bullets like ROFAR to save the motherland, their defence depends on many redundant elements where air force is not even remotely the most important one. On top of that, Byelka will be their first AESA. All the investments done on the technology and all the GaAs MMICs need to pay out. Then all those with GaN, then ROFAR will come. It will come, just don't hold your breath until then!
                                  Last edited by LMFS; 16th May 2019, 00:00.

                                  Comment

                                  • Jō Asakura
                                    多聞天
                                    • Jan 2011
                                    • 1300

                                    Radar house supplier NPP Pulsar's S & X band GaN HEMT MMICs circa 2016:

                                    Click image for larger version  Name:	b2c0a59815caaca6f44742ab425e040a.jpg Views:	0 Size:	158.5 KB ID:	3862417
                                    sigpic

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                                    • Marcellogo
                                      Rank 5 Registered User
                                      • Jun 2014
                                      • 1811

                                      Originally posted by XB-70 View Post
                                      LMFS - I don't think we are that far from agreement. I pretty much see them about doubling production volumes every year until they hit whatever they have targeted for normal production. So, this year they get one and they have one planned for 2020 (but they may advance that to two) and then up the volume each year. So, 3-4 years.
                                      You are making confusion between first serials, that are planes built to test and optimize the functioning of the assembly line that they are actually setting up before starting normal serial production.
                                      A single plane pass through all the station of assembly line, they register all single operations needed to built the item and the time it takes for each of them.
                                      After it, they analyze them and modify both the single workstations than the task given to every single workers in order to optimize the production, once done they repeat the process with the second plane to check iF everything is working according their own previsions.
                                      They need a specific, separate contract for the First Serial phase because in it is involved also the Design Bureau that has developed the machine, while normal serial production one will just be a thing between MOD and KnAAPO.
                                      Only the assembly line is finally settled, serial production will begin, every single workstation will work at the same time so that it will be possible to produce up to twenty planes at year , like in the case of Su-35, built in the same KnAAPO.
                                      Last edited by Marcellogo; 16th May 2019, 02:04.

                                      Comment

                                      • haavarla
                                        Rank 5 Registered User
                                        • Dec 2008
                                        • 6631

                                        So by reading the lines from Putin, i wonder if this new infrastructure for Su-57 actual means hard shelters or some kind of shelters from the climate.
                                        I have a hard time seing these birds staying out in the open, mid -30 C during winter time Russia..

                                        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bGFp77GU2eI&t=6s
                                        Thanks

                                        Comment

                                        • ActionJackson
                                          Rank 5 Registered User
                                          • Oct 2010
                                          • 263

                                          Originally posted by Jō Asakura View Post
                                          Radar house supplier NPP Pulsar's S & X band GaN HEMT MMICs circa 2016:

                                          Click image for larger version Name:	b2c0a59815caaca6f44742ab425e040a.jpg Views:	0 Size:	158.5 KB ID:	3862417
                                          Took them 10 years to post the photo?

                                          Comment

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