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Finnish fighter replacement revisited

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  • Loke
    Rank 5 Registered User
    • Jun 2008
    • 3302

    My understanding of the Finnish eval is that unlike many others it will first short-list, and then it will pick the most capable solution amongst those short-listed.

    Gripen no doubt is very cost-effective (if payload/endurance requirements are met) however it will not be able to beat the F-35 if one of the main criteria is ranking of technical capabilities. There is so much capability in the F-35 a/c (built-in) that no 4.5 gen fighter will be able to compete. IMHO.

    Had they chosen to instead define "minimum capability criteria" and then select the cheapest package then perhaps Gripen E would have had a chance in Finland. But with their process I don't think it will have a chance.

    Politics may also play a role, in favor of a US solution. Sweden is a near neighbor and very important partner to Finland of course, but after the Swedish military has been decimated over many years, I don't see Sweden ever become in a position to give any substantial support to Finland, Sweden will struggle to defend itself! The only country that can support Finland and provide a credible deterrence is the US. Thus if Finland believes that the US support will still be there (in spite of all the America First talk) then politically it makes the most sense to buy US fighters.

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    • TomcatViP
      Rank 5 Registered User
      • Nov 2011
      • 5759

      There is plenty very capable of hardware to shop in Sweden for the Fins. Given the expectations expressed in the RFP, the Gripen is not one of them.
      The Gripen has never been designed to be the most capable penetrative platform in the world. Not is it Saab motto, nor Sweden budget.

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      • Yama
        Rank 5 Registered User
        • Feb 2012
        • 584

        Finlands situation and Swedens are quite similar, and even more so when Sweden and Finland will enter a new era of military cooperation where Fins can utilize Swedish airbases, Swedish equipment and use joint forces on eachothers territories.
        There are no such plans of military co-operation. Finland occassionally throws some softballs to that direction, and Swedes are always "mm...meh."

        My understanding of the Finnish eval is that unlike many others it will first short-list, and then it will pick the most capable solution amongst those short-listed.
        Yes, it is basically opposite for Swiss process where they estabilished minimum performance criteria, and then picked out the cheapest. Same applies for support and domestic industry co-operation- there is a minimum level which everyone must meet, if they don't they are out regardless of any other considerations. But it also means you can't "buy" points by promising extra super duper industry co-operation or anything like that.

        However, all of those are just Air Force criteria, in the end it is the State Council which decides which and how many aircraft - if any - is acquired.

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        • halloweene
          Rank 5 Registered User
          • Jan 2012
          • 4000

          olitics may also play a role, in favor of a US solution. Sweden is a near neighbor and very important partner to Finland of course, but after the Swedish military has been decimated over many years, I don't see Sweden ever become in a position to give any substantial support to Finland, Sweden will struggle to defend itself! The only country that can support Finland and provide a credible deterrence is the US. Thus if Finland believes that the US support will still be there (in spite of all the America First talk) then politically it makes the most sense to buy US fighters.
          Sweden is strongly rearming. Conscription, remilitarization of Baltic island, reparation of airbases etc.

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          • Yama
            Rank 5 Registered User
            • Feb 2012
            • 584

            RFQ's are in for 64 aircraft. Saab published details from their offer, it features 52 single-seaters and 12 two-seaters:

            Click image for larger version  Name:	Dyt23qyX0AEWMbS.jpg Views:	0 Size:	143.2 KB ID:	3850455
            Last edited by Yama; 10th February 2019, 12:13.

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            • St. John
              Rank 4 Registered User
              • Jan 2018
              • 470

              From a European buyer's perspective, the Gripen E seems to be a fighter that's already out-of-date but not in service yet.

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              • Scooter
                Rank 5 Registered User
                • Jan 2000
                • 11831

                In the case of Finland the odds seem fairly good for the F-35. Yet, the Swiss are likely another story.....
                F-35 Lightning II

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                • Yama
                  Rank 5 Registered User
                  • Feb 2012
                  • 584

                  Being the only stealth aircraft in the mix, F-35 will obviously enjoy big advantage in tactical scenarios, which I gather will be somewhat similar as in Danish evaluation.
                  However economic realities will prove hard to meet for many, if not all, competitors. FAF expects to operate same number of planes as today with budget no bigger. It's hard to see how Eurofighter and F-35 will be able to meet this criteria and others might have problems as well. Combine with looming economic downturn, I think the odds are long that the procurement will progress as planned without a hitch.

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                  • halloweene
                    Rank 5 Registered User
                    • Jan 2012
                    • 4000

                    But conversely to Danish evel, F-35 will be evaluated in flight, in Finland. Quite a difference. F-35 is already trying to sell the idea of evaluation of F-35 with simulators to swiss. Not sure they will be succesful.

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                    • FBW
                      FBW
                      Rank 5 Registered User
                      • Dec 2011
                      • 3034

                      But conversely to Danish evel, F-35 will be evaluated in flight, in Finland. Quite a difference. F-35 is already trying to sell the idea of evaluation of F-35 with simulators to swiss. Not sure they will be succesful.
                      What would you suggest? Sending pilots through the 8 month training syllabus? Find small pilots to sit on the laps of an F-35 pilot for a flight evaluation?

                      "F-35" isn't trying to sell the idea of evaluation with simulators, that is the reality. There are no two seaters. Considering over half of the F-35 training syllabus is completed via simulators, they are accurate representations of "flying" the aircraft (and should be considering the cost of those F-35 simulators).

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                      • halloweene
                        Rank 5 Registered User
                        • Jan 2012
                        • 4000

                        Both countries DO WANT to fly it whatever syllabus. Otherwise you are selling PPT.

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                        • FBW
                          FBW
                          Rank 5 Registered User
                          • Dec 2011
                          • 3034

                          Otherwise you are selling PPT.
                          Sure, I've seen several powerpoints on how to perform STOVL landings and whatnot on a moving ship. While you may discount the fidelity of F-35 simulators, those training pilots to fly the F-35 have a somewhat different opinion:

                          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r1lnWqFOGgw

                          Simply put, there are workarounds: company test pilots flying simulated missions with testing equipment, high fidelity flight simulators, observers attached to operational units at an exercise like red flag.

                          Comment

                          • halloweene
                            Rank 5 Registered User
                            • Jan 2012
                            • 4000

                            Simualtors are one thing. Actual flying another.Whatever the quality of simulators. And simulators can be programmed so as to... Oh well.

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                            • topspeed
                              Get on uppah !
                              • Jan 2009
                              • 2522

                              Originally posted by Nicolas10 View Post
                              Finland should get Su35s.

                              If I was Finland's drunkmeister or whatever they call their commie chief, I would get 24 upgraded Gripen Cs on lease & 24 Su35s.

                              Nic
                              Our commie chief was the right arm of USSRs Josef Stalin back in the 30ies...he was Otto Ville Kuusinen...and he founded a shadow government there to run Finland affairs. 1939 they joyfully marched to Finland to annex it to their happy nation. Unfortunately ( for commies ) the real chief we had back then was not a commie he was marschal Carl Gustaf Emil Mannerheim....an ex-czar Chevalier guard officer. He enjoyed hunting with Hermann Gring and occasionally met ( 1941 onwards ) also the well know corporal.....Adenoid Hynkel.

                              Our current president is Sauli Niinist...friend of Trump and Putin. He is also not a drunkmeister. CGE Mannerheim did sometimes drink during the dinner...an official toast and aperitif.

                              Last edited by topspeed; 12th February 2019, 06:51.
                              If it looks good, it will fly good !
                              -Bill Lear & Marcel Dassault


                              http://max3fan.blogspot.com/

                              Comment

                              • BlackArcher
                                Rank 5 Registered User
                                • Dec 2010
                                • 3883

                                Originally posted by St. John View Post
                                From a European buyer's perspective, the Gripen E seems to be a fighter that's already out-of-date but not in service yet.
                                How could that be when you have some EU buyers still looking at the F-16 Block 70 and Slovakia that has already signed on to buy them?

                                Comment

                                • panzerfeist1
                                  Rank 4 Registered User
                                  • Feb 2018
                                  • 166

                                  https://www.businessinsider.in/swede...w/67908934.cms

                                  "Justin Bronk, an aerial combat expert at the Royal United Services Institute, told Business Insider that like the A-10 Warthog was built around a massive cannon, the Gripen was built around electronic warfare.

                                  Virtually all modern jets conduct some degree of electronic warfare, but according to Bronk, the Gripen E stands above the rest."

                                  Acquiring GaN AESA EW is not much of a good sales pitch to outsell F-35s if the F-35s themselves along with EA-18s will acquire the same technology around 2020. According to my updated Quora link answer the same technology is already present on SU-57s, SU-35s and SU-34s.
                                  https://qr.ae/TUyFkS

                                  Comment

                                  • St. John
                                    Rank 4 Registered User
                                    • Jan 2018
                                    • 470

                                    Originally posted by BlackArcher View Post

                                    How could that be when you have some EU buyers still looking at the F-16 Block 70 and Slovakia that has already signed on to buy them?
                                    Finland is not Slovakia.

                                    Comment

                                    • djcross
                                      Rank 5 Registered User
                                      • Jan 2000
                                      • 5362

                                      Strip away the marketing hype and you find Gripen E is a technology-refreshed Gripen C. The "new" technologies are the same ones employed on F-16 Block 60, F/A-18E/F Block 3, the latest tranches of Typhoon and Rafale and SU-35, but on Gripen's tiny airframe with limited payload and range.
                                      Last edited by djcross; 12th February 2019, 12:04.

                                      Comment

                                      • halloweene
                                        Rank 5 Registered User
                                        • Jan 2012
                                        • 4000

                                        justin bronk on the head... "expert"...

                                        he is talking about arctic challenge 2017 as far as i remember. MS20 version
                                        Last edited by halloweene; 12th February 2019, 12:57.

                                        Comment

                                        • FBW
                                          FBW
                                          Rank 5 Registered User
                                          • Dec 2011
                                          • 3034

                                          Acquiring GaN AESA EW is not much of a good sales pitch to outsell F-35s if the F-35s themselves along with EA-18s will acquire the same technology around 2020. According to my updated Quora link answer the same technology is already present on SU-57s, SU-35s and SU-34s. https://qr.ae/TUyFkS
                                          except it isnt. Does your updated quora prove the existence of E.T. and give the Loch Ness monsters Twitter handle as well?
                                          There are zero production versions of the Su-57, and few (2 maybe 3?) pre-production fitted with himalaya for testing. All Ive see is that the EW system MAY BE updated with GaN arrays, as in they are a possible planned upgrade. And neither the Su-35 or Su-34 have GaN EW systems currently.

                                          spare me the Kret catalogue argument, it is akin to pulling up Raytheon or Northrops (rather extensive) list, seeing the production of GaN MMiC and claiming its fitted to the F-16V or F-35 etc.

                                          It was something like a year ago people were cheering because it was announced that something like 20,000 GaA T/R modules had been produced for the Su-57. That is akin to cottage industry production volume. Lets wait for Russia to field any production airborne AESA in volume before claiming GaN EW systems, ROFAR and all the rest.
                                          Last edited by FBW; 12th February 2019, 14:55.

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