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RuAF News and development Thread part 15

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  • FBW
    FBW
    Rank 5 Registered User
    • Dec 2011
    • 3290

    Originally posted by GromOzekA View Post

    Also, India was not partner at any point of time. Indian "dances" about military tenders is well known. FGFA story is just one of them.
    Thats fundamentally revisionist, Russia and India signed an IGA for the design stage, basically a co-development of the FGFA based on the Pak-Fa project. They contributed roughly 300 million USD (2010) in the development stage. Disagreements over India specific design elements betwen Pak-Fa and FGFA, cost sharing, and Indias share of co-production sunk the project.

    Comment

    • LMFS
      Rank 4 Registered User
      • Feb 2018
      • 472

      Originally posted by FBW View Post

      Thats fundamentally revisionist, Russia and India signed an IGA for the design stage, basically a co-development of the FGFA based on the Pak-Fa project. They contributed roughly 300 million USD (2010) in the development stage. Disagreements over India specific design elements betwen Pak-Fa and FGFA, cost sharing, and Indias share of co-production sunk the project.
      Irrespective, India was NEVER a partner to PAK-FA. Stop mixing unrelated things please. Russia's need for the plane has nothing to do with what India wants to do with their air force.

      Comment

      • haavarla
        Rank 5 Registered User
        • Dec 2008
        • 6652

        Originally posted by LMFS View Post

        Irrespective, India was NEVER a partner to PAK-FA. Stop mixing unrelated things please. Russia's need for the plane has nothing to do with what India wants to do with their air force.
        100% Agree.
        I've said it before. There might be several issues that "sunk" the Co-op between India and Russia PakFa/FGFA program.
        But in the end i think Sukhoi with UAC threw in the white towel and conceded to the IAF that they could not at current time develop two different planes at the same time.
        It would mean much more money, more Risk, more delays or time to even get the PakFa ready, which brings us back again to what you just said here.
        Namely that the PakFa program is so important for Russia, for its armed forces and its future Industry for all its drop down of inovations going into the future.

        There has always been a silly but perhaps a pinch of thruth when people said the F-35 program was -"too big to fail".
        Well it can be said that the PakFa program is too important for Russia too fail.
        Thanks

        Comment

        • eagle
          Rank 5 Registered User
          • Jan 2000
          • 2353

          Originally posted by stealthflanker View Post
          Well it's because J-31 look closer to US approach. XD
          Probably... though I'm not really sure if Scooter's obsession with a Russian "J-31" is just his idea of a running gag...
          Or maybe in his F-35-uber-alles world the F-35 is the bestest, cheapest super fighter for everyone. If your air force for whatever reason can't be part of the illustrious F-35 circle, the only viable alternative is "J-31". Because it looks similar to an F-35.

          J-31 in quotes because obviously no such thing actually exists.
          Maybe - probably - one day China will have another VLO fighter besides the J-20. Russian AF will not have the same type.
          How can less be more? It's impossible. More is more.
          Yngwie Malmsteen

          Comment

          • LMFS
            Rank 4 Registered User
            • Feb 2018
            • 472

            Originally posted by haavarla View Post
            100% Agree.
            I've said it before. There might be several issues that "sunk" the Co-op between India and Russia PakFa/FGFA program.
            But in the end i think Sukhoi with UAC threw in the white towel and conceded to the IAF that they could not at current time develop two different planes at the same time.
            It would mean much more money, more Risk, more delays or time to even get the PakFa ready, which brings us back again to what you just said here.
            Namely that the PakFa program is so important for Russia, for its armed forces and its future Industry for all its drop down of inovations going into the future.
            I think Russia tried to lure India with a program that was a win-win for both. They would get additional money and ensure their partnership long term and India would get lots of ToT that are simply not available anywhere else, I think in fact Russia went quite far in terms of concessions. But India was not ready for the effort and Russia was not ready for the Indian demands I guess so it didn't work in that format, irrespective of what happens in the future. In any case the program was never coupled to PAK-FA, it was always stated they were two different planes

            There has always been a silly but perhaps a pinch of thruth when people said the F-35 program was -"too big to fail".
            Well it can be said that the PakFa program is too important for Russia too fail.
            Pretty much! Russian industry cannot allow themselves to lose PAK-FA. They simply can't.

            Originally posted by eagle
            If your air force for whatever reason can't be part of the illustrious F-35 circle, the only viable alternative is "J-31". Because it looks similar to an F-35.
            Hahaha, that's it! In the world measured in dollars, they cannot imagine that Russia can buy the Su-57 because it will cost them like the F-22 or so, so better to admit their insignificance and settle for a medium or light fighter like the J-31, even if it is useless. Hardly can they imagine that the RF is buying Su-35s under $30 million and that probably Su-57, if it is very expensive as they admitted, will come at $45-50 million. That is just my guess, but officials have already said the plane will cost 2-2.5 times less than the American examples so it can be in that ballpark indeed. Now look what is the cost of a medium fighter in the international market and try to get a 5G one for something like that. These are simply ridiculous propositions...
            Last edited by LMFS; 28th March 2019, 20:34.

            Comment

            • GromOzekA
              Rank 4 Registered User
              • May 2018
              • 36

              Originally posted by FBW View Post

              Thats fundamentally revisionist, Russia and India signed an IGA for the design stage, basically a co-development of the FGFA based on the Pak-Fa project. They contributed roughly 300 million USD (2010) in the development stage. Disagreements over India specific design elements betwen Pak-Fa and FGFA, cost sharing, and Indias share of co-production sunk the project.
              FGFA != PAK-FA

              295 milion USD != significant fraction of buget of the FGFA program

              "The cost of preliminary design is estimated at $295 million. The work is expected to be complete within 18 months," Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) Chairman Ashok Nayak said.
              This is a quote from 2010. So, since mid 2012 the FGFA program was not funded, none R&D was done since then, but India officially "quit" the program only in 2018. As i said - dancing and singing.

              Also it worth mentioning again, 295 million was spent on preliminary design. PAK-FA have passed such a stage in a years 2000-2002, and India was not involved obviously.

              Comment

              • RadDisconnect
                Rank 5 Registered User
                • Jul 2013
                • 523

                Originally posted by eagle View Post

                Probably... though I'm not really sure if Scooter's obsession with a Russian "J-31" is just his idea of a running gag...
                Or maybe in his F-35-uber-alles world the F-35 is the bestest, cheapest super fighter for everyone. If your air force for whatever reason can't be part of the illustrious F-35 circle, the only viable alternative is "J-31". Because it looks similar to an F-35.

                J-31 in quotes because obviously no such thing actually exists.
                Maybe - probably - one day China will have another VLO fighter besides the J-20. Russian AF will not have the same type.
                Good point. There is so much more development uncertainty for J-31 and the project isn't even fully backed by PLAAF/PLAN.

                Comment

                • FBW
                  FBW
                  Rank 5 Registered User
                  • Dec 2011
                  • 3290

                  Hardly can they imagine that the RF is buying Su-35s under $30 million and that probably Su-57, if it is very expensive as they admitted, will come at $45-50 million. That is just my guess, but officials have already said the plane will cost 2-2.5 times less than the American examples so it can be in that ballpark indeed.
                  Yeah, and I can buy real Gucci sunglasses from the local street vendor for $20 USD. There have been several Su-35S contract disclosures (China, Indonesia, Egypt proposal). So, either Russia is charging export customers 3.5 times what they are costing Russia (in which case the customers are rubes) or under 30 million is in your wildest dreams. If you look at an average of export contracts of combat aircraft, with support, equipment, training, they usually add up to between 1.5-to a bit over 2 times the unit cost on a per aircraft basis.

                  In in other words, no. 50-60 million in USD would be more accurate.

                  Comment

                  • LMFS
                    Rank 4 Registered User
                    • Feb 2018
                    • 472

                    Originally posted by FBW View Post

                    Yeah, and I can buy real Gucci sunglasses from the local street vendor for $20 USD. There have been several Su-35S contract disclosures (China, Indonesia, Egypt proposal). So, either Russia is charging export customers 3.5 times what they are costing Russia (in which case the customers are rubes) or under 30 million is in your wildest dreams. If you look at an average of export contracts of combat aircraft, with support, equipment, training, they usually add up to between 1.5-to a bit over 2 times the unit cost on a per aircraft basis.

                    In in other words, no. 50-60 million in USD would be more accurate.
                    Look for the prices of Su-30 and Su-35 contracts to MoD if you want. And of course the price on the export market is not what the production costs as Russia pays (remind the involved companies are state-owned so making profit makes no sense here) but what the aircraft is worth for the customer. It can be much more than the production cost of course.

                    BTW, what costs do you estimate at $50-60 million concretely?

                    Comment

                    • stealthflanker
                      Rank 5 Registered User
                      • Sep 2015
                      • 1007

                      I really doubt the "60-65M" price for our aircraft (Indonesia). As simple estimate suggest that it is the price of the aircraft with some fuel and minimum weapon load (2 R-73, some R-77's and guns). This is not what we asking for. It will still be in range of 90-100M USD per aircraft and might be some more but in separate deal regarding to supporting facilities as our existing infrastructure for say, jet engine testing cannot take something more than PW-F100 engine powering our F-16's.

                      The "60-65M USD" value is also based on rather flawed assumption based on the weight of the aircraft (There is even equation for that in Torenbeek's book but it's dated) So no.

                      Comment

                      • FBW
                        FBW
                        Rank 5 Registered User
                        • Dec 2011
                        • 3290

                        stealthflanker - the total contract value was 1.1 billion, so unless Indonesia skimped on weapons, spares, training, etc. I doubt the aircraft themselves were in the 90-100 million dollar range.
                        LMFS - yeah Ive seen those MoD numbers quoted. And they simply put arent accurate. I wouldnt be surprised if that is simply for the airframe and the radar, engines, etc were separate contracts. And the idea that a customer simply pays what they think the aircraft is worth is frankly, dumb. You dont think they want transparency in negotiating a contract? For example accounting for production cost, associated fees, % of Dev cost?
                        Sure Russia buys them at under 30 million a pop, but export customers contracts all come in over 100 million per Su-35S. Are they throwing in unlimited fuel+spares, maintenance, and weapons too?

                        Comment

                        • Austin
                          Rank 5 Registered User
                          • Oct 2003
                          • 6463

                          Originally posted by FBW View Post
                          Sure Russia buys them at under 30 million a pop, but export customers contracts all come in over 100 million per Su-35S. Are they throwing in unlimited fuel+spares, maintenance, and weapons too?
                          Mostly good profit margin for Rosboroexport , Plus Spares , Support , Maintenance , Weapons cost , Training etc for export buyers. In case of India there is offset involved that adds to the markup plus thing like TOT , Lic production cost.

                          An audit report on HAL states that HAL made MKI is 55 % more costly then what they would pay to buy directly from Russia , The huge chunk of difference involves profit and LCC cost etc

                          https://swarajyamag.com/insta/hals-s...s-incompetence
                          "A map does you no good if you don't know where you are"

                          Comment

                          • Marcellogo
                            Rank 5 Registered User
                            • Jun 2014
                            • 1825

                            It's always skimpy to ascertain the real "cost" of a plane: it all depend of such an array of variables that any direct comparison between two different countries is almost out-of-question.
                            Let's say that in my country (Italy) all State cost for development and even the production of the first serial item of any military hardware fall under the Industry and Economy Development Ministry's budget,so that our MoD got our actual and future Flagship Cavour for free...
                            So IMHO better skip this kind of metrics off.

                            Comment

                            • LMFS
                              Rank 4 Registered User
                              • Feb 2018
                              • 472

                              Originally posted by FBW View Post
                              stealthflanker - the total contract value was 1.1 billion, so unless Indonesia skimped on weapons, spares, training, etc. I doubt the aircraft themselves were in the 90-100 million dollar range.
                              LMFS - yeah Ive seen those MoD numbers quoted. And they simply put arent accurate. I wouldnt be surprised if that is simply for the airframe and the radar, engines, etc were separate contracts. And the idea that a customer simply pays what they think the aircraft is worth is frankly, dumb. You dont think they want transparency in negotiating a contract? For example accounting for production cost, associated fees, % of Dev cost?
                              Sure Russia buys them at under 30 million a pop, but export customers contracts all come in over 100 million per Su-35S. Are they throwing in unlimited fuel+spares, maintenance, and weapons too?
                              I don't have details to what the MoD contracts include that is right. But in any case this is why we make focus in PPP corrected GDP, value of things in less "developed" economies is also so much lower than you cannot assess their effective "wealth" from Western parameters. And as said essentially all is state controlled so there is no incentive to inflating costs as US MIC does. The kind of armed forces RF sustains with $50 or 60 billion budget is surreal from our perspective. A Western country for that money would not be capable of keeping the nuclear forces on their feet alone, much less modernize them as the RF is doing.

                              I have never negotiated fighter jets contracts, so just my understanding here: customer pays in function of what their options are. If you have a Rafale and F-16V costing >$100 million a piece and Russians come with a much better offer you may buy, regardless of the profit that means for Russia. Especially for non-aligned countries, what are the other options instead, buy Western and get their fleet grounded in the worst moment? What is the leverage of the customer to demand knowing for instance % of development costs he is paying? And how would that metric be calculated for a program developed without publicly accounting for foreign sales? Those figures are not their business IMHO.

                              Export contracts are also not very detailed, but we know for instance China bough 24 Su-35S for ca. $2 billion, that is like 83 million a piece. Even if it was only the planes it would be very cheap for such a plane, look what Morocco for instance is going to pay for 25 F-16...
                              Further training, support and weapons would make the deal even better if included, but I dont have info in that regard to be honest.

                              Comment

                              • haavarla
                                Rank 5 Registered User
                                • Dec 2008
                                • 6652

                                Originally posted by FBW View Post

                                Yeah, and I can buy real Gucci sunglasses from the local street vendor for $20 USD. There have been several Su-35S contract disclosures (China, Indonesia, Egypt proposal). So, either Russia is charging export customers 3.5 times what they are costing Russia (in which case the customers are rubes) or under 30 million is in your wildest dreams. If you look at an average of export contracts of combat aircraft, with support, equipment, training, they usually add up to between 1.5-to a bit over 2 times the unit cost on a per aircraft basis.

                                In in other words, no. 50-60 million in USD would be more accurate.
                                Now look. Its true the Sukhoi is under the UAC, imo a state owned umbrella. But that does not mean they are 100% State owned.
                                And stop making this sound such a bad market model. Norway has had large company that was 100% state owned for many years, and in the last 15 years they have sold down to around 33-51%.
                                This does not mean you automatically get a substidiced industry.
                                Sukhoi and all its sub contractors are in it for the profit, period.
                                They are not allowed to charge a huge profitt out of any State contract, imo the profit in this case is quite marginal.
                                But when we have export, that is a whole different ball game, its
                                Rosboroexport that runs the negotiations, Contracts. The Russian State wants a surpluss for all its investment.
                                Any profit is splitt up between them. Profit is profit.

                                Stop make it sounds like this is like a modell from 1960's Communist ordeal, its clearly not.

                                We wont know the exact cost of Su-35S, but clearly a good deal of support contract involved. Pilot conversion, pit crew conversion, weapons, spares etc etc.
                                Anyway, for such a huge and heavy jet, we can all conclude its a cheap jet per tonnage, capability or in any other way you want to compare it.
                                Last edited by haavarla; 29th March 2019, 14:00.
                                Thanks

                                Comment

                                • paralay
                                  Rank 5 Registered User
                                  • Aug 2005
                                  • 1396

                                  The cost of the Su-35S is $ 42 million, for a foreign customer - 62 million;
                                  Su-57 delivery cost is expected $ 82 - $ 123 million

                                  Comment

                                  • FBW
                                    FBW
                                    Rank 5 Registered User
                                    • Dec 2011
                                    • 3290

                                    We wont know the exact cost of Su-35S, but clearly a good deal of support contract involved. Pilot conversion, pit crew conversion, weapons, spares etc etc.
                                    Anyway, for such a huge and heavy jet, we can all conclude its a cheap jet per tonnage, capability or in any other way you want to compare it.
                                    Absolutely, and I would never contest the point that from an acquisition cost point, there is nothing that compares to the Sukhoi products. A heavyweight fighter at the international price point of a light fighter.

                                    Comment

                                    • LMFS
                                      Rank 4 Registered User
                                      • Feb 2018
                                      • 472

                                      Originally posted by paralay View Post
                                      The cost of the Su-35S is $ 42 million, for a foreign customer - 62 million;
                                      Su-57 delivery cost is expected $ 82 - $ 123 million
                                      Do you have sources Paralay? To know the year when the currency conversion was done would be important too.

                                      There is a number of reasons why I don't completely agree on the figures above but would think it is better to see how they were calculated before discussing xD

                                      Comment

                                      • MadRat
                                        Rank 5 Registered User
                                        • Aug 2006
                                        • 5033

                                        Customers would get way better bang for the ruble if they purchased Su-34 or MiG-31. Both are destabilizing purchases for a fraction of the unit cost.
                                        Go Huskers!

                                        Comment

                                        • haavarla
                                          Rank 5 Registered User
                                          • Dec 2008
                                          • 6652

                                          Originally posted by MadRat View Post
                                          Customers would get way better bang for the ruble if they purchased Su-34 or MiG-31. Both are destabilizing purchases for a fraction of the unit cost.
                                          There is only one hitch with operating Mig-31 Madrat.
                                          You could say Flanker is an expensive aircraft to run, but in compare to Mig-31, forget it!
                                          The Mig-31 is an extreem expensive aircraft for ANY other nation than Russia to run.
                                          Kazakstan is trading their Mig-31 with new Su-30SM's.

                                          And with the Mig-31 having such a limited multirole portfolio, hardly a wise choice for any other Nation.

                                          I give you credit for the Su-34 though. In my mind they would fit perfectly for IAF heavy Brahmos Sq.
                                          Thanks

                                          Comment

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