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SAAB Gripen and Gripen NG thread #4

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  • Vnomad
    Rank 5 Registered User
    • May 2011
    • 2859

    Originally posted by Urban View Post
    With basic surrounding systems and some simulators etc 55-65m$. Source : Just check all the offers given to many country's in the past that where normal offers like the dutch one.)( Dutch airforce went from 85 gripens to 37 f-35's.)
    Duly checked. And the only country for which the cost of an off-the-shelf acquisition for an export customer is available (with any degree of transparency), is Switzerland. $3.3 billion for 22 aircraft ~ $150 million.







    The idea that Netherlands could have gotten 85 Gripen Es on that same budget is nonsensical.
    Last edited by Vnomad; 21st February 2016, 01:49.

    Comment

    • JSR
      JSR
      Rank 5 Registered User
      • Aug 2011
      • 4955

      Originally posted by Halo View Post
      @ JSR, a little reality check for you here

      Most innovative countries
      http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/20...ive-countries/

      Highest and lowest corruption
      http://indy100.independent.co.uk/art...er--xJUZ5u9j_x

      Most economically competitive countries in the world
      http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...s-in-the-world

      List of GDP per person, note what happened in Russian with the more than 50% drop in Ruble vs USD since 2014...
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...PP)_per_capita

      We appreciate your concern but seems that we do not have to worry too much regarding Norway, Canada and Finland..
      These are Western methods of measuring index. very out of touch with reality. see diesel gate example. Do they produce more food/steel or energy than Russia at competitive prices.? what great innovations happening in Scandinavia that practically all brands have foreign ownership. and rest are using imported parts.

      Comment

      • The_5aab_God
        Rank 5 Registered User
        • Mar 2015
        • 161

        Originally posted by Vnomad View Post
        Duly checked. And the only country for which the cost of an off-the-shelf acquisition for an export customer is available with any degree of transparency, is Switzerland. $3.3 billion for 22 aircraft ~ $150 million.







        The idea that Netherlands could have gotten 85 Gripen Es on that same budget is nonsensical.
        I think that has been said in the other Gripen threads as well. I believe spitfire say before Dutch were smart to be weary, and given changes to the aircraft itself that was prudent.

        I am curious about the cost to because i have heard Brazil cost is because of factory, but Swiss deal looked to be roughly the same and there was no plan for a factory?

        Comment

        • JakobS
          Rank 5 Registered User
          • Aug 2015
          • 155

          Originally posted by alexz View Post
          Then tell me why even saab is pushing new c/d aircrafts as a cheaper solution to the e/f?
          Because there are still lot's of Gripen A/B's in storage that will be rebuilt to C/D standard if desired. When Saab says new C/D's they actually mean take most component's from old A/B planes and put them in a new airframe. Also those charts are quite confusing because they are more related to development costs for Saab rather tan the fly away prices for the customer.

          Originally posted by Broccoli View Post
          Who says that F-35 is killing Norwegian army?
          Norwegian press have actually covered this very substantially during the fall, and there have also been statements from people with great insights into the armed forces.

          Comment

          • Loke
            Rank 5 Registered User
            • Jun 2008
            • 3302

            Originally posted by The_5aab_God View Post
            I think that has been said in the other Gripen threads as well. I believe spitfire say before Dutch were smart to be weary, and given changes to the aircraft itself that was prudent.

            I am curious about the cost to because i have heard Brazil cost is because of factory, but Swiss deal looked to be roughly the same and there was no plan for a factory?
            There are many factors influenzing the price, including:

            * exchange rates
            * the amount of ToT
            * the amount of offsets
            * the specific configuration
            * the amount of support included in the deal
            * the amount of spares

            In addition I wonder if the terms of the Swiss deal were negotiated before Brazil announced they were going to go for Gripen; if so, then I would assume that the contract for the 22 Swiss included quite a lot of R&D costs for Gripen, since Switzerland and Sweden would then basically have to cover the R&D costs.

            Comment

            • Loke
              Rank 5 Registered User
              • Jun 2008
              • 3302

              Originally posted by The_5aab_God View Post
              F-35 is 5 percent of the Norwegian defense budget, and the defense budget is getting a 9.8 percent hike this year too.
              Actually there have been a lot of noise around the F-35 in Norway recently, in particular from the army.

              Due to a weaker Norwegian economy it looks like the Norwegian defence budget will not grow as much as they were hoping for. The F-35 is a major expense the next several years, and to keep that program going, other things have to be cut. In particular it looks like the Norwegian army will be hit. However we may also see reductions in the Norwegian navy. I hope not, in particular I am concerned about the Norwegian submarines, they are a very potent and important part of the Norwegian defence force, it would be tragic if they have to cut it to finance the F-35. We may also not get a substitute for the P3s.

              And of course all our F-35 will be in one base. This is also a concern to me. If there is a surprise attack knocking out the F-35 on the ground, the deterrence effect of the F-35 will suddenly be zero.

              The counter-argument is that our intelligence will be so good that nobody will be able to launch a surprise attack. (no, I am not kidding).

              Comment

              • Loke
                Rank 5 Registered User
                • Jun 2008
                • 3302

                Originally posted by Vnomad View Post
                Everything required to bridge the gap with its larger siblings - increased payload, increased range, AESA, GaN-based EW system, sensor fusion, IRST etc.
                Ah, OK I think I understand what you are trying to say... you talk about the Gripen E development program... (the way you phrased it, it sounded like the Gripen E would be in urgent need for upgrades!)



                India again is a very long shot. They've already got two types of cost-effective workhorses in the Tejas and Su-30MKI. The govt. will find it hard to justify a Gripen E acquisition without some sort of competition (SH? Viper?), which will inevitably take years to finalize (MMRCA redux), and is therefore something they'll want to avoid. The only aircraft that they can justify as a single-vendor purchase is ironically the F-35 itself, offering capabilities (read: stealth) not currently available from other sources.
                I believe the IAF wanted Tejas mk2, not the current mk1; now they are forced to accept mk1a which does not really meet their requirements but they have no choice. Tejas mk2 will take much longer to develop than Gripen E.

                They have already made it clear that they are assessing different options. Since they go for goverment-to-government deals they don't have to arrange competitions. They want a Western bird so MiG-35 is out; Rafale was too expensive so it's out; the same is Typhoon. After the latest sales of F-16 to Pakistan, the F-16 is also out.

                That leaves the SH and Gripen NG... Let's wait and see what happens!
                Last edited by Loke; 21st February 2016, 18:54.

                Comment

                • Loke
                  Rank 5 Registered User
                  • Jun 2008
                  • 3302

                  Originally posted by Broccoli View Post
                  Budget is between 6-10 billion and when Finland buys F-35's the A model is probably one of the cheapest fighters country can buy (80-100 million). Eurocanards are only getting more expensive and air force personnel are heavily against purchasing two different fighters since it increases cost of training, etc. Some politicians are saying that Finland should buy to different fighters or only Gripen but our air force leadership clearly disagrees.
                  The Swiss air force ranked Rafale first; Typhoon second, and Gripen third. Due to budget constraints they had to accept Gripen.

                  I would not be surprised if the Finnish air force ended up with the same order, but with F-35 ahead of Rafale. Rafale and Typhoon will be too expensive (and less capable than F-35) so will therefore not make any sense. So it will be between the F-35, the SH, and Gripen E. Politics, costs, and capabilities (probably in that order) will decide who will win, is my guess.

                  Comment

                  • maurobaggio
                    Rank 5 Registered User
                    • Jul 2008
                    • 521

                    Originally posted by Spyhawk View Post
                    The Swiss Franc skyrocketed when it gave up its pegged value last year (+21% compared to the US dollar). You should do your calculation with the value of the Franc when the contract was agreed upon.

                    The same has also been happened with Brazil: the Swedish currency had been appreciated in 2014, maybe then the contract were signed in 2014 with Brazil at the value 5.4 billions from 4.5 billions because this, instead the value of U$4.5 billions that had been held from 2009 to 2014 either.

                    Today the contract has returned for its previous values to U$ 4.5 billions from 2009 to 2014, instead the U$ 5.4 billions as the day the contract were signed in 2014.

                    Perhaps Brazil should have been signed the contract with its own currency than Swedish currency just it did the Switzerland, once today I guess than instead U$4.5 billions this value could be decreased to something like U$ 3.0 billion!!!

                    With Brazil's currency has been devalued in the recent times, the price of the Gripen NG in Brazil and also its contract should not be decreased either, since it will be produced in Brazil?

                    From 22nd November 2014, 23:56

                    Originally posted by maurobaggio View Post
                    Thanks for the information.

                    The source of information that I used on the contract of Switzerland after a survey were basically two:

                    http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/...ts-f-5s-04624/

                    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-0...ct-gripen.html


                    As I am a very poor old man, in reason of that I haven't been used to deal with the Swiss franc (CHF).

                    However I guess I'm not the only one since there are several variations due to value of the Swiss franc currency, in the case of Bloomberg source it had reported the contract with a value of US$ 3.5 billion( CHF 3,126 billion) on 19 May 2014.


                    According to 1st source:

                    Aug 28/12: Contract terms. The Swiss government reveals the details of their Gripen deal. Their 22 planes will all be single-seat JAS-39Es, delivered from 2018-2021 at a firm-fixed-price cost of CHF 3.126 billion (currently $3.27 billion). That total is guaranteed by the Swedish government, and includes mission planning systems, initial spares and support, training, and certification.

                    April 12/12: Postponed. Swiss Defence Minister Ueli Maurer says that they will postpone their order of 22 JAS-39E/F Gripen jets, so they can co-ordinate its purchase with Sweden. The minister promises that the bill will remain below SFR 3.126 billion/ $3.43 billion.


                    http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/...ts-f-5s-04624/


                    With the price of the Swiss Franc today, according to:
                    http://www.x-rates.com/calculator/?f...unt=3126000000

                    The value of the contract Switzerland today would be US $ 3.233 billion.

                    However in the case of Brazil the contract were US$ 4.5 billions, it is possible to observe in Bloomberg source, however at contract was signing the value has been corrected to $ 5.4 billion since the same would be outdated at the 2009.

                    In fact I do not know if the value of the contract Brazil $ 5.4 billion has been already included the cost of from funding this.

                    On the total value of the Switzerland contract that was voted in Switzerland: US $ 3.233 billion


                    1.Comparative Table Brazil / Switzerland

                    Type Number of Gripen NG Amount of Contract (Billions) Unit Cost (millions)
                    Brazil Gripen E/F 36 Us$ 5.4 US$ 150
                    Switzerland Gripen E 22 US$ 3.233 US$ 147
                    By the same unit cost from Switzerland the Brazil would have enclosed in its contract:
                    • a new production line that will be installed in Brazil
                    • development of the new Gripen F in Brazil
                    • financial resources to keep the production line in Brazil with rate of the 3 aircraft's per year for five years

                    With the second value of Switzerland contract has been provided by Eremit t would be:US$ 2,578 billions


                    2.Comparative Table Brazil / Switzerland

                    Type Number of Gripen NG Amount of Contract (Billions) Unit Cost (millions)
                    Brazil Gripen E/F 36 Us$ 5.4 US$ 150
                    Switzerland Gripen E 22 US$ 2.578 US$ 117
                    By the increased of the 28% about the Switzerland cost per unit, the Brazil would have enclosed in its contract:
                    • a new production line that will be installed in Brazil
                    • development of the new Gripen F in Brazil
                    • financial resources to keep the production line in Brazil with rate of the 3 aircraft's per year for five years


                    In my humble opinion I think the US$ 3.233 billions value of Switzerland does not have any special requirements that also could not be applied to Brazil, since both countries has been using the F 5E / F.

                    Even when has been considering the value of US$ 2.578 billions for Switzerland contract, with an increase in value of 28% in each unit of the Gripen E / F to Brazil over Switzerland, in my humble opinion I think should be little likely to accomplish all that it has been planned for Brazil with contract of the US 5.4 billions.

                    Note: My humble opinions is not better than others, but I have been using the available information to try to understand the situation of the Gripen E / F in Brazil.

                    I'm not a supporter of this saying: wait and see.

                    After all, who expects only the best could be caught by the events.

                    My humble opinions may eventually proves to be all wrong, which would be better for Brazil and Sweden as the Gripen E / F.

                    In reason of that I think it should be better to be a disappointed pessimist than an optimist highly frustrated.

                    Comment

                    • JSR
                      JSR
                      Rank 5 Registered User
                      • Aug 2011
                      • 4955

                      Originally posted by Loke View Post
                      And of course all our F-35 will be in one base. This is also a concern to me. If there is a surprise attack knocking out the F-35 on the ground, the deterrence effect of the F-35 will suddenly be zero.

                      The counter-argument is that our intelligence will be so good that nobody will be able to launch a surprise attack. (no, I am not kidding).
                      The deterreance value is already practically zero if it has to face mobile Brahmos-2/Zircon class missiles in saturated attack. larger industrial capacity mean practically round the clock attack.

                      Comment

                      • MSphere
                        Senior Member
                        • Feb 2010
                        • 8983

                        Originally posted by Urban View Post
                        @spitfire9 ?? troll feast today ?
                        Actually, not.. He is just paraphrasing the pathetic arguments Norwegians have used in order to make the F-35 look more affordable. In order to level the cost out they have predicted half of the Gripen fleet written off, but no F-35s lost..

                        Comment

                        • Urban
                          Rank 4 Registered User
                          • Jan 2015
                          • 121

                          A nice Gripen E page =)

                          https://thaimilitaryandasianregion.w...pen-e-details/

                          Comment

                          • garryA
                            Rank 5 Registered User
                            • Dec 2015
                            • 1120

                            Originally posted by JSR View Post
                            The deterreance value is already practically zero if it has to face mobile Brahmos-2/Zircon class missiles in saturated attack. larger industrial capacity mean practically round the clock attack.
                            AFAIK , Brahmos-2 is still largely in development stages , arguably even earlier stages compares to LRASM , and while the speed seem impressive for an antiship missiles , it nothing special compares to ballistic missiles like Scud that Iraq used in Gulf war

                            Comment

                            • JSR
                              JSR
                              Rank 5 Registered User
                              • Aug 2011
                              • 4955

                              Originally posted by garryA View Post
                              AFAIK , Brahmos-2 is still largely in development stages , arguably even earlier stages compares to LRASM , and while the speed seem impressive for an antiship missiles , it nothing special compares to ballistic missiles like Scud that Iraq used in Gulf war
                              that is export programme time line for India. which billistic missile has S curves and steep dive manevorability?. Brahmos is land attack missile of Indian army.
                              cruise missile are more compact and easy to hide and more multi target capability.
                              http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/india...issile-1241156

                              domestic is more advanced Zircon missile.
                              http://tass.ru/en/defense/857921

                              Comment

                              • moon_light
                                Rank 5 Registered User
                                • May 2012
                                • 1014

                                Originally posted by JSR View Post
                                that is export programme time line for India.Brahmos is land attack missile of Indian army.
                                cruise missile are more compact and easy to hide and more multi target capability.
                                Brahmos II is a join program between Russia and India
                                and it not exactly a compact missiles even though it is smaller than Scud
                                Originally posted by JSR View Post
                                which billistic missile has S curves and steep dive manevorability?.
                                all ballistic missiles dive very steep and there is no way Brahmos will make a S curve maneuver at mach 7 ( and it wont go mach 7 at sea level either ) , what most likely to happen is that after launch Brahmos will climb up and follow a ballistic arcs



                                Originally posted by JSR View Post
                                domestic is more advanced Zircon missile.
                                http://tass.ru/en/defense/857921
                                more advanced in what aspect ?

                                Comment

                                • Urban
                                  Rank 4 Registered User
                                  • Jan 2015
                                  • 121

                                  Originally posted by moon_light View Post
                                  Brahmos II is a join program between Russia and India
                                  and it not exactly a compact missiles even though it is smaller than Scud

                                  all ballistic missiles dive very steep and there is no way Brahmos will make a S curve maneuver at mach 7 ( and it wont go mach 7 at sea level either ) , what most likely to happen is that after launch Brahmos will climb up and follow a ballistic arcs




                                  more advanced in what aspect ?
                                  So this is ballistic missile thread, sweet i hvae some questions right there....OPS

                                  Comment

                                  • Urban
                                    Rank 4 Registered User
                                    • Jan 2015
                                    • 121

                                    Originally posted by Urban View Post
                                    So this is ballistic missile thread, sweet i hvae some questions right there....OPS
                                    while we are at it, the west should fix a common anti ballistic solution together. a Missile defense for everyone.

                                    Comment

                                    • Nicolas10
                                      Senior Member
                                      • May 2005
                                      • 4523

                                      Originally posted by Urban View Post
                                      while we are at it, the west should fix a common anti ballistic solution together. a Missile defense for everyone.
                                      no

                                      Comment

                                      • JSR
                                        JSR
                                        Rank 5 Registered User
                                        • Aug 2011
                                        • 4955

                                        Originally posted by moon_light View Post
                                        Brahmos II is a join program between Russia and India
                                        and it not exactly a compact missiles even though it is smaller than Scud
                                        how do you know Brahmos-2 size. cruise missiles are far more compact, mobile than billistic missiles.
                                        all ballistic missiles dive very steep and there is no way Brahmos will make a S curve maneuver at mach 7 ( and it wont go mach 7 at sea level either ) , what most likely to happen is that after launch Brahmos will climb up and follow a ballistic arcs
                                        dont put your own theories. Brahmos is largest quantity high speed missile in continous production in tri service. tremendous confidence in its abilities. that is in country that can barely put a single test of Israeli joint project Barak airdefence missile after 10 years.

                                        more advanced in what aspect ?
                                        In every aspect. even the export of domestic version is more advanced than the export of customized version.
                                        http://tass.ru/en/defense/857531
                                        Unlike the Su-30MKI fighter jet, the avionics suite mounted on the Su-30SME aircrafts version lacks French-made components, the source said.
                                        Russian-made components for the Su-30SME fighter jets avionics suite have allowed enhancing the aircrafts capabilities.

                                        Comment

                                        • moon_light
                                          Rank 5 Registered User
                                          • May 2012
                                          • 1014

                                          Originally posted by JSR View Post
                                          how do you know Brahmos-2 size. cruise missiles are far more compact, mobile than billistic missiles.

                                          dont put your own theories. Brahmos is largest quantity high speed missile in continous production in tri service. tremendous confidence in its abilities. that is in country that can barely put a single test of Israeli joint project Barak airdefence missile after 10 years.


                                          In every aspect. even the export of domestic version is more advanced than the export of customized version.
                                          so basically you have nothing to support your opinion, Jesus, shouldn't have wasted time arguing with you

                                          Comment

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