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  • Y-20 Bacon
    Senior Member
    • Apr 2013
    • 2176

    J-11D or Su-35 for Pakistan

    Pakistan wants a long ranged twin engine fighter
    and many news reports including PAF representatives themselves confirmed Su-35 talks

    would China actually take this sitting down? they could offer the J-11D which MSphere says is their most comparable aircraft to the Su-35 (but some other news reports say its closer to the Su-27M from the 80s)

    which would actually be better for PAF need?
  • haavarla
    Rank 5 Registered User
    • Dec 2008
    • 6697

    #2
    If you knew the very back ground history of J-11, you would also know that any export of J-11 is prohibited. Its eighter Russian Flankers or some other two engines jets.
    Thanks

    Comment

    • MSphere
      Senior Member
      • Feb 2010
      • 8983

      #3
      Originally posted by Y-20 Bacon View Post
      would China actually take this sitting down? they could offer the J-11D which MSphere says is their most comparable aircraft to the Su-35 (but some other news reports say its closer to the Su-27M from the 80s)
      Neither of that, actually. Structurally, the J-11D is ... still a J-11.. which is still a basic Su-27. OTOH, the Su-27M was a thoroughly reworked Flanker (more range, more payload, better maneuvrability) while the Su-35S is what you get when you want to achieve the same, but already have TVC engines which negate the need for canards and enable you to save few hundred kgs. That means the J-11D is behind either Su-27M or Su-35S.

      So much for the structure. Regd. the avionics, the situation is different. With alleged AESA {or PESA, who knows), wide-angle frameless HUD, loads of LCDs and all-digital computer suite, the J-11D leaves the old Su-27M behind and approaches the Su-35S. But {there is still a but}, it only flies in a single prototype thus far and it might take years to get it into service..

      Originally posted by Y-20 Bacon View Post
      which would actually be better for PAF need?
      That would greatly depend on what weapons would be used. J-11D shall use indigenous ordnance which could evtl. be shared with JF-17 (at least some, that is..).. But as already said, the export of any J-11s is a big no...
      Last edited by MSphere; 25th September 2015, 13:11.

      Comment

      • Deino
        Rank 5 Registered User
        • Jan 2000
        • 4226

        #4
        Originally posted by MSphere View Post
        Neither of that, actually. Structurally, the J-11D is ... still a J-11.. which is still a basic Su-27. OTOH, the Su-27M was a thoroughly reworked Flanker (more range, more payload, better maneuvrability) while the Su-35S is what you get when you want to achieve the same, but already have TVC engines which negate the need for canards and enable you to save few hundred kgs. That means the J-11D is behind either Su-27M or Su-35S.

        So much for the structure. Regd. the avionics, the situation is different. With alleged AESA {or PESA, who knows), wide-angle frameless HUD, loads of LCDs and all-digital computer suite, the J-11D leaves the old Su-27M behind and approaches the Su-35S. But {there is still a but}, it only flies in a single prototype thus far and it might take years to get it into service..

        That would greatly depend on what weapons would be used. J-11D shall use indigenous ordnance which could evtl. be shared with JF-17 (at least some, that is..).. But as already said, the export of any J-11s is a big no...
        Indeed interesting from where You have that knowledge that the J-11D is still a J-11 ad as such still a basic Su-27 !

        Even the J-11B uses many different parts like composits in comparison to a vanilla Flanker and reportedly the J-11D has an even more modified airframe.
        If this includes "more range, more payload, better manoeuvrability" ... I don't know, but I'm really surprised that again without knowing anything about the D-model other than two blurry images You come to such "facts" !

        In the end however - like You also noted - China will never export any Flanker version to Pakistan, and esp. not the J-11D. As such the whole discussion is - typically like so many treads here - as useful as "What would Laos do if they get hand on a Klingon Bird of Prey ?!"

        Deino
        ...

        He was my North, my South, my East and West,
        My working week and my Sunday rest,
        My noon, my midnight, my talk, my song;
        I thought that love would last forever; I was wrong.

        The stars are not wanted now; put out every one:
        Pack up the moon and dismantle the sun;
        Pour away the ocean and sweep up the woods:
        For nothing now can ever come to any good.
        -------------------------------------------------
        W.H.Auden (1945)

        Comment

        • Vnomad
          Rank 5 Registered User
          • May 2011
          • 2859

          #5
          Originally posted by haavarla View Post
          If you knew the very back ground history of J-11, you would also know that any export of J-11 is prohibited. Its eighter Russian Flankers or some other two engines jets.
          Could you please elaborate. Why would China refuse to export a J-11 powered by pair of WS-10As to a near-ally i.e. Pakistan? Yes its roots lie in a license-production deal for the Su-27, but that was ages ago. The design has been extensively (entirely?) indigenized over the years.
          Last edited by Vnomad; 25th September 2015, 14:49.

          Comment

          • PLA-MKII
            Senior Member
            • Mar 2005
            • 1649

            #6
            Because (some) analysts feel that China is beyond making unlicensed copies for sale past the F7s, and it would not be appropriate for the Chinese-Russian alliance, as well as for the future of the SCO.

            I am holding out for a sinofied Su35 tailored to maritime roles for the PN/PAF. I would think it best without TVC though.

            Comment

            • haavarla
              Rank 5 Registered User
              • Dec 2008
              • 6697

              #7
              Originally posted by Vnomad View Post
              Could you please elaborate. Why would China refuse to export a J-11 powered by pair of WS-10As to a near-ally i.e. Pakistan? Yes its roots lie in a license-production deal for the Su-27, but that was ages ago. The design has been extensively (entirely?) indigenized over the years.
              Don't be silly now..
              It does not help Rename it(the Su-27SKM) into another J-** designation or put WS-10 engines and AESA on it.. The airframe SCREAM FLANKER all over it..

              There exist protocols(yes Russians love protocols..) in the license-production. Should China not honor it, then its bye bye for those engine contracts along other deals between them.

              China would never Risk it.

              Besides, have ANYONE ever seen a stand at Airshows, where J-11 has been advertised for export?
              No I did not think so..
              Last edited by haavarla; 25th September 2015, 19:42.
              Thanks

              Comment

              • Vnomad
                Rank 5 Registered User
                • May 2011
                • 2859

                #8
                Originally posted by PLA-MKII View Post
                Because (some) analysts feel that China is beyond making unlicensed copies for sale past the F7s, and it would not be appropriate for the Chinese-Russian alliance, as well as for the future of the SCO.

                I am holding out for a sinofied Su35 tailored to maritime roles for the PN/PAF. I would think it best without TVC though.
                The alliance, such as it is, is quite lopsided. Of course, the Chinese with there huge economic heft might not be too concerned about the revenue lost by foregoing J-11 exports. But if they did decide to go ahead and offer the aircraft to Pakistan, I doubt Russia would try to make an issue out of it, in light of current geopolitical realities (recession, sanctions, depressed commodity prices, etc).

                Comment

                • MSphere
                  Senior Member
                  • Feb 2010
                  • 8983

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Vnomad View Post
                  Could you please elaborate. Why would China refuse to export a J-11 powered by pair of WS-10As to a near-ally i.e. Pakistan? Yes its roots lie in a license-production deal for the Su-27, but that was ages ago. The design has been extensively (entirely?) indigenized over the years.
                  It wasn't. Granted, Chinese have replaced Russian subsystems and avionics to create J-11B, J-11BS, J-11BSH, J-16 and whatnot, but there are zero indications about the design itself having been thoroughly modded / indigenized. The fact that China did go to the lengths of acquiring a T.10K-7 prototype from Ukraine in order to design their own J-15.. If they had the Flankers researched to the level as you guys imply, then they probably would not bother,.. I also don't see much sense in reworking the Flanker over and over if you got so much else to do (J-20, J-31, UCAVs, Y-20, WZ-10, Z-19, Z-18...)

                  Comment

                  • Vnomad
                    Rank 5 Registered User
                    • May 2011
                    • 2859

                    #10
                    Originally posted by haavarla View Post
                    Don't be silly now..
                    It does not help Rename it(the Su-27SKM) into another J-** designation or put WS-10 engines and AESA on it.. The airframe SCREAM FLANKER all over it..
                    Well, let me ask another 'silly' question - given that the airframe screams 'Flanker', for every J-11 that is produced at Shenyang, is a royalty paid to Russia?

                    There exist protocols(yes Russians love protocols..) in the license-production. Should China not honor it, then its bye bye for those engine contracts along other deals between them.

                    China would never Risk it.
                    Engine contracts for the AL-31? I imagine they'll all be allowed to lapse without replacement as the WS-10 enters widespread service. Which other deal exists, which if cancelled would lead to China paying a heavier price than Russia?

                    Besides, have ANYONE ever seen a stand at Airshows, where J-11 has been advertised for export?
                    No I did not think so..
                    As long as its powered by the AL-31, it obviously not viable as an export option.

                    Comment

                    • MSphere
                      Senior Member
                      • Feb 2010
                      • 8983

                      #11
                      Originally posted by Deino View Post
                      Indeed interesting from where You have that knowledge that the J-11D is still a J-11 ad as such still a basic Su-27 !

                      Even the J-11B uses many different parts like composits in comparison to a vanilla Flanker and reportedly the J-11D has an even more modified airframe.
                      If this includes "more range, more payload, better manoeuvrability" ... I don't know, but I'm really surprised that again without knowing anything about the D-model other than two blurry images You come to such "facts" !
                      I have to say it on the record here, Deino, I respect you and you in-depth knowledge about China.. I really do.. But you're slowly starting to lose it and your responses tend to become overprotective in nature, without any proven facts supporting it. The fact is that for general public, the J-11D stays a vanilla Flanker upgraded with latest systems because it is the easiest explanation, much simpler than an idea that it was somehow completely reworked structurally but no one can see that and no one has any data regd. this.. If new info / evidence about the J-11D being made of composites appears, then I will gladly change my mind. But somehow I can't see what good would it serve spending so much effort reworking a 30-yr old design just to please few hard-core PLAAF maniacs..

                      A little bit of objective perspective would not hurt you, frankly speaking..

                      Comment

                      • Vnomad
                        Rank 5 Registered User
                        • May 2011
                        • 2859

                        #12
                        Originally posted by MSphere View Post
                        It wasn't. Granted, Chinese have replaced Russian subsystems and avionics to create J-11B, J-11BS, J-11BSH, J-16 and whatnot, but there are zero indications about the design itself having been thoroughly modded / indigenized. The fact that China did go to the lengths of acquiring a T.10K-7 prototype from Ukraine in order to design their own J-15.. If they had the Flankers researched to the level as you guys imply, then they probably would not bother,.. I also don't see much sense in reworking the Flanker over and over if you got so much else to do (J-20, J-31, UCAVs, Y-20, WZ-10, Z-19, Z-18...)
                        By indigenization, I mean what percentage of components are sourced from Russia? Just the engine AFAIK. Of course there's the legal aspect, but from what I understand that's already been flouted without consequence. And that too in an era, when the power balance between the two countries was far less lopsided than it is today.

                        Comment

                        • MSphere
                          Senior Member
                          • Feb 2010
                          • 8983

                          #13
                          Originally posted by Vnomad View Post
                          Well, let me ask another 'silly' question - given that the airframe screams 'Flanker', for every J-11 that is produced at Shenyang, is a royalty paid to Russia?
                          There was an outcry from Russia regd. the J-11s few years ago, since then the waters have calmed down. I imagine that there is some kind of agreement between Russia and China which clears the situation.. something in style, you guys can do your indigenous non-licensed Flankers and we keep one eye closed, but only as long as you don't try to mix in the export market.

                          Do I have evidence for that? No.. Does it still make sense to assume that some kind of agreement did occur, in the end? Yes..

                          Comment

                          • Vnomad
                            Rank 5 Registered User
                            • May 2011
                            • 2859

                            #14
                            Originally posted by MSphere View Post
                            There was an outcry from Russia regd. the J-11s few years ago, since then the waters have calmed down. I imagine that there is some kind of agreement between Russia and China which clears the situation.. something in style, you guys can do your indigenous non-licensed Flankers and we keep one eye closed, but only as long as you don't try to mix in the export market.

                            Do I have evidence for that? No.. Does it still make sense to assume that some kind of agreement did occur, in the end? Yes..
                            Such disputes are always about leverage. Back then China was still a major defence market for Russia, and China in turn still depended on Russia for much of its higher end gear. Today China's annual defence imports are minuscule ($2bn out of ~$150bn) as its domestic systems continue to replace imported ones, though compared to other countries that amount is still substantial.

                            The last vestiges of its dependence on Russia (such as the AL-31) will also fade and fairly soon at that. At that point, the only obstacle will be a political one. There too the equation is tilted heavily in China's favour.

                            Comment

                            • JSR
                              JSR
                              Rank 5 Registered User
                              • Aug 2011
                              • 4976

                              #15
                              Originally posted by Vnomad View Post
                              Such disputes are always about leverage. Back then China was still a major defence market for Russia, and China in turn still depended on Russia for much of its higher end gear. Today China's annual defence imports are minuscule ($2bn out of ~$150bn) as its domestic systems continue to replace imported ones, though compared to other countries that amount is still substantial.

                              The last vestiges of its dependence on Russia (such as the AL-31) will also fade and fairly soon at that. At that point, the only obstacle will be a political one. There too the equation is tilted heavily in China's favour.
                              Don't forget the 200 RD-93 for JF-17 and and all the helicopter imported by China and Pakistan. And all the D-30 engines and upgrades to them. They used on IL-78m, Y-20, IL-76, bomber etc. Country with weak heavy engg skills will always be dependent.

                              Comment

                              • Deino
                                Rank 5 Registered User
                                • Jan 2000
                                • 4226

                                #16
                                Originally posted by MSphere View Post
                                I have to say it on the record here, Deino, I respect you and you in-depth knowledge about China.. I really do.. But you're slowly starting to lose it and your responses tend to become overprotective in nature, without any proven facts supporting it. The fact is that for general public, the J-11D stays a vanilla Flanker upgraded with latest systems because it is the easiest explanation, much simpler than an idea that it was somehow completely reworked structurally but no one can see that and no one has any data regd. this.. If new info / evidence about the J-11D being made of composites appears, then I will gladly change my mind. But somehow I can't see what good would it serve spending so much effort reworking a 30-yr old design just to please few hard-core PLAAF maniacs..

                                A little bit of objective perspective would not hurt you, frankly speaking..
                                Thanks for Your kind words and You might be a bit correct ... but why am I "overprotective" if there are indeed many reports that alone the J-11B has a much reduced weight in comparison to the standard Su-27SK/J-11A and given the fact that SAC now also produces the J-16 with the Su-30MKK's tails containing fuel it is not that far off to assume that the D might incorporate a few more modifications too.

                                As such I might be indeed a bit overprotective ... while a few others are too conservative in their assessment to think SAC still reproiduces a 20-old airframe without any changes.

                                The truth might be lay in the middle ... as so often !

                                All the best,
                                Deino
                                ...

                                He was my North, my South, my East and West,
                                My working week and my Sunday rest,
                                My noon, my midnight, my talk, my song;
                                I thought that love would last forever; I was wrong.

                                The stars are not wanted now; put out every one:
                                Pack up the moon and dismantle the sun;
                                Pour away the ocean and sweep up the woods:
                                For nothing now can ever come to any good.
                                -------------------------------------------------
                                W.H.Auden (1945)

                                Comment

                                • MSphere
                                  Senior Member
                                  • Feb 2010
                                  • 8983

                                  #17
                                  I am glad you did not take my words personally.. If you ever spread into any info regd. changes having been made to the construction of J-11s, I am all ears !!
                                  All the best, MSphere

                                  Comment

                                  • Aurel
                                    Rank 5 Registered User
                                    • Oct 2003
                                    • 1178

                                    #18
                                    Even if the Chinese *could* export their Flanker versions, *would* they ? They have their own domestic needs, which may come first.

                                    Comment

                                    • MSphere
                                      Senior Member
                                      • Feb 2010
                                      • 8983

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by Aurel View Post
                                      Even if the Chinese *could* export their Flanker versions, *would* they ? They have their own domestic needs, which may come first.
                                      I think the same.. The J-11 production rates are not exactly stellar, might be quality issues?

                                      Comment

                                      • Blitzo
                                        Rank 5 Registered User
                                        • Jan 2011
                                        • 1329

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by MSphere View Post
                                        I think the same.. The J-11 production rates are not exactly stellar, might be quality issues?
                                        Hard to tell regarding flanker productionr ates -- in prior years we had pretty consistent pictures of the factory and could estimate new J-11Bs and BSs produced, and also estimate deliveries per year by looking at new regiments being stood up. They averaged about a regiment (24 ish aircraft) per year, I think, which is fairly decent.

                                        But in the last year or two, pictures have dried up a little, and I think J-11B and BS production has begun to wind down as they've possibly been modifying the line for new J-15 production and J-16 production... and we don't know how many of those they've actually produced. There are at least a dozen J-15s in service, and there are rumours that the first J-16 regiment is entering trials as well.

                                        at any rate, even if SAC could produce 40 flankers per year for the air force, I doubt they would produce flankers for Pakistan or any other export customer (even if they had Russia's consent) given their domestic needs are very great.

                                        I think the recent perceived "lull" in flanker production from SAC is partly because they're moving to producing J-15s and J-16s from J-11B/BS, and also because of a slightly degree of greater secrecy in some military matters, across China overall, reducing the pictures we may get from the airfield.

                                        ---

                                        Also, I find the thread's opening suggestion to be a little bit strange. China has never shown any desire to export flankers before (as multiple members have said prior), nor would I imagine why they'd have any issues with Pakistan buying Russian flankers (there's nothing to "take sitting down" in the first place)... and Su-35 is a developed and ready aircraft for purchase, while J-11D only first flew recently at the beginning of the year so it'll be a few years until J-11D is even ready for China's air force while Su-35 can be delivered far faster.

                                        I can't help but feel this thread is a bit needlessly confrontational, almost like it's intended to compare "which is the best flanker" between Su-35 (and Su-27M) with the unknown quantity of J-11D.
                                        Last edited by Blitzo; 26th September 2015, 04:24.

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