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By: - 16th April 2015 at 06:13 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Russian engine, not available for export, lack of established market credibility, take your pick.
No question that the aircraft itself is a beast -- a veritable next-gen F-16. Makes everyone else look a bit silly, really.
F-16 52/60: No performance or agility.
MiG-29M/K/35: Why not buy a Flanker?
Rafale, Typhoon: Overbred, too expensive.
Gripen C/D: Too small.
...
Gripen E/F: evidently as close to replicating the superb balance of J-10 as anyone outside CAC is going to get.
By: - 16th April 2015 at 07:16 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Major question would be - has the J-10 even been offered for export really?
The closest it seems to have gotten to a sale was the sale of 36 J-10As to Pakistan, but Pakistan probably couldn't afford the J-10 and hence stuck to buying more JF-17s..there was some talk that they were holding out for the more capable J-10B, but now there seems to be no interest in the type from Pakistan..Argentina may be interested in the type, but frankly, considering their financial condition, the JF-17 may be a more likely option.
By: - 16th April 2015 at 08:27 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
It remain to be seen how the J10 have superior agility or acceleration than an F16.
I have personally already praised its roll-rate. But short from that we know nothing and the aero config does not speak much in favor of a 35 something AoA performances.
And we do not know much about its systems.
By: - 16th April 2015 at 09:25 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Major question would be - has the J-10 even been offered for export really?The closest it seems to have gotten to a sale was the sale of 36 J-10As to Pakistan, but Pakistan probably couldn't afford the J-10 and hence stuck to buying more JF-17s..there was some talk that they were holding out for the more capable J-10B, but now there seems to be no interest in the type from Pakistan..Argentina may be interested in the type, but frankly, considering their financial condition, the JF-17 may be a more likely option.
you brought up another issue.
those who are broke consider JF-17 or used aircraft
those who can afford it.. end up going Flankers (even the mig-29 struggles against flanker sales these days)
By: - 16th April 2015 at 10:01 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Hi guys ... an indeed interesting topic.
Overall I think all points - but one - were already mentioned:
- those countries who can purchase Western types, they decide usually for new, used and/or refurbished F-16s ... or even the Gripen.
- those who only can or want to buy a non-Western type have either a too limited budget (so they purchased still the last F-7 types or now they consider the JF-17) or they take the MiG-29 (not that many to admit as mentioned) or even if possible the Su-27/-30.
- also worth, what's the performance, reliability, maintenance and even more customer service ... we really don't know officially !
- is or was the J-10A already cleared and offered for export ?? ... or are these only rumours ?
My final missing point is however a PLAAF-/politically related: If we look at the production rate during the final years, it was - at least as long as the F-7/J-7 were still on production - quite limited so that all J-10s (and here it were not more than 1 1/2 or 2 Regiments) produced went directly to the PLA. My question now is: was the production rate only so low due to the fact that the J-7 line was still open, since there was no demand on the A-model or since it was simply not for sale ??? ... we need to consider that the improved B-model was also under test and I can think that most potential customers - if interested in a new type - would only take the best version !?
Deino
By: - 16th April 2015 at 10:37 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Major question would be - has the J-10 even been offered for export really?The closest it seems to have gotten to a sale was the sale of 36 J-10As to Pakistan, but Pakistan probably couldn't afford the J-10 and hence stuck to buying more JF-17s..there was some talk that they were holding out for the more capable J-10B, but now there seems to be no interest in the type from Pakistan..Argentina may be interested in the type, but frankly, considering their financial condition, the JF-17 may be a more likely option.
I don't think J-10 will fit into the 2 tier fighter model for Pakistan Airforce. They need to replace all low/medium tech fighters with JF-17s and build-up the F-16 force with 2nd hand and new acquisitions until they can identify a long term replacement for F-16s. J-10 is not a next gen replacement for Block 52s.
By: - 16th April 2015 at 10:54 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
I don't think J-10 will fit into the 2 tier fighter model for Pakistan Airforce. They need to replace all low/medium tech fighters with JF-17s and build-up the F-16 force with 2nd hand and new acquisitions until they can identify a long term replacement for F-16s. J-10 is not a next gen replacement for Block 52s.
The problem however - but that's more a PAF-related thing - is that the ZDK-03 does not fit to the Erieye, the new AH-1Z does not fit to the Z-10 ... or better to say the PAF would save a lot of money if they could or would concentrate on a single purpose-single type fleet but the problem here is as long as no additional F-16C/Ds, more Erieyes and more AH-1Zs were available, they have to look for an alternative ... especially if maybe someone else pays for them !
By: - 16th April 2015 at 10:56 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Major question would be - has the J-10 even been offered for export really?
A good point.
It's only an export failure if the Chinese have tried to export it & not succeeded. If they've chosen to keep it to themselves, it's no more an export failure than the F-22 or F-106.
By: - 16th April 2015 at 11:09 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
The market is extremely saturated with established products and manufactures trying very hard to sign contracts. The only niche left is an affordable fighter which is what Chengdu developed the FC-1 for. Had the FC-1 been cancelled a low cost J-10 variant might have been put on the market.
By: - 16th April 2015 at 11:56 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
if you believe reports coming out of some media outlets and bloggers in the last 10 years.. it seemed like every third world country and their mom were lining up for it.
but the reality is, not even Pakistan has received any yet.countries that have access to western aircraft are buying western.
Egypt chose Rafale
Pakistan is sticking to JF-17s and F-16s
Bangladesh and Myanmar is sticking to Mig-29
many others chose Flankersmid weight curse?
Its only been offered to pak and they were only going to buy it if india went aead with mmrca. Given the absolute mess that india made of the rafale deal, I dont think paf will go ahead with j10 but will instead wait for j31 development.
Note, egypt only bought rafale once france offered a sweet financial package and india only got them as they r desperate to slde the declinig fleet numbers. And france has spare capacity. So rafale sales success is nothing stellar either id say.
By: - 16th April 2015 at 14:18 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
I remember reading that China doesn't actually permit J-10's export. Let me look it up.
Ah, as per 10 October 2013, the J-10 was not cleared for export. As of today, there is still no news that it has acquired the clearance permit for export. My own understanding, based on the predicted need for J-7 replacement, is that China is dedicating all of the J-10 production for PLAAF's J-7 replacement need and until that's fulfilled (or almost fulfilled), they aren't interested in exporting it.
By: - 16th April 2015 at 17:06 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Note, egypt only bought rafale once france offered a sweet financial package and india only got them as they r desperate to slde the declinig fleet numbers. And france has spare capacity. So rafale sales success is nothing stellar either id say.
I would place the emphasis differently: Rafale with two export orders is no better than it was with zero export orders.
And of course Rafale is a superb aircraft. But if France could go back and do it all over with a clean slate, I'm sure a slightly smaller, single-engine design would be very tempting.
By: - 16th April 2015 at 20:35 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
A major issue with Chinese kit is lack of spare parts support after the production line shuts down.
By: - 17th April 2015 at 00:32 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
No question that the aircraft itself is a beast -- a veritable next-gen F-16. Makes everyone else look a bit silly, really.
So basically you think it looks cool...
By: - 17th April 2015 at 01:11 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
I would place the emphasis differently: Rafale with two export orders is no better or worse than it was with zero export orders.
Apart from Gripen (3 exports?), It is very difficult for non US or Russians to break into the fighter export market. Of the top of my head, here are the sales (to date) of currently available fighters:
Rafale: 2
Eurofighter: 1 (outside euro)
JF-17: 0 (outside china/pak)
J-10: 0 (not on the market either)
Its a tough market out there :)
By: - 17th April 2015 at 03:25 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Apart from Gripen (3 exports?), It is very difficult for non US or Russians to break into the fighter export market. Of the top of my head, here are the sales (to date) of currently available fighters:Rafale: 2
Eurofighter: 1 (outside euro)
JF-17: 0 (outside china/pak)
J-10: 0 (not on the market either)Its a tough market out there :)
not sure why you dont count European exports?
in any case
Rafale: 2 (Egypt, Indiana) 24 and 36 = 60 (could be higher on the Indian side)
Typhoid: 2 (Hitlerland, Wahhabiland, Oman) 15 and 72 and 12 = 99 this includes Oman's planned purchase
Peter Griffin: 7 (Cheque, Hungry, South Africa, Thai, Brazil, Slovakia) 20, 14, 26, 12, 36, 12 = 120. this excludes follow up orders from Thailand and Brazil which are to be higher and planned purchase of Slovakia.
By: - 17th April 2015 at 03:26 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
I would place the emphasis differently: Rafale with two export orders is no better or worse than it was with zero export orders.And of course Rafale is a superb aircraft. But if France could go back and do it all over with a clean slate, I'm sure a slightly smaller, single-engine design would be very tempting.
in otherwords, another Mirage 2000.
By: - 17th April 2015 at 03:27 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Hi guys ... an indeed interesting topic.Overall I think all points - but one - were already mentioned:
- those countries who can purchase Western types, they decide usually for new, used and/or refurbished F-16s ... or even the Gripen.
- those who only can or want to buy a non-Western type have either a too limited budget (so they purchased still the last F-7 types or now they consider the JF-17) or they take the MiG-29 (not that many to admit as mentioned) or even if possible the Su-27/-30.
- also worth, what's the performance, reliability, maintenance and even more customer service ... we really don't know officially !
- is or was the J-10A already cleared and offered for export ?? ... or are these only rumours ?My final missing point is however a PLAAF-/politically related: If we look at the production rate during the final years, it was - at least as long as the F-7/J-7 were still on production - quite limited so that all J-10s (and here it were not more than 1 1/2 or 2 Regiments) produced went directly to the PLA. My question now is: was the production rate only so low due to the fact that the J-7 line was still open, since there was no demand on the A-model or since it was simply not for sale ??? ... we need to consider that the improved B-model was also under test and I can think that most potential customers - if interested in a new type - would only take the best version !?
Deino
it would be very interesting to see a modern air force acquire newer Chinese aircraft and compare them to their existing Russian or Western stuff.
in the past, countries like Thailand and others that received Chinese naval ships and tanks often complained about the low quality and hazards. But these are stuff bought in the 80s and 90s. It would be interesting to see how much China changed (or lack of).
By: - 17th April 2015 at 04:41 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
So basically you think it looks cool...
On the contrary, J-10 is one of the less aesthetically attractive Eurocanards -- uglier than Rafale, certainly. Nonetheless, it embodies all the qualities that made F-16 such a laudable and successful platform, with a more advanced aerodynamic design offering improved performance and agility (plus a Typhoon-style variable intake -- DSI on J-10B -- to take full advantage of those possibilities), and without the performance-sapping (and yes, ugly) modifications that've been required to keep F-16 competitive in the latter stages of its life.
As such, J-10 is a worthy successor to the F-16 heritage, amidst a gaggle of contemporaries falling mostly into one of two categories -- those that even the manufacturing nations themselves can neither afford to buy nor operate, let alone export -- and significantly smaller and mostly less sophisticated aircraft (JF-17, T-50, Gripen, Tejas) that are in another class of capability all together.
The non-Chinese project that comes closest to the superb balance of J-10 is Gripen E/F. But as laudable and sorely-needed as that aircraft is, the Chinese deserve credit for getting it right the first time around.
in otherwords, another Mirage 2000.
In that direction, yes. Such would've been both easier on the French pocketbook -- which of course is far more limited than when Rafale was designed -- and likely more attractive on the export market as well (save perhaps in Korea and Singapore, where they lost anyway).
By: - 17th April 2015 at 05:57 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
J-10 could use the Gripen NG main landing gear design and gain a good bit of fuel load.
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By: Y-20 Bacon - 16th April 2015 at 06:02
if you believe reports coming out of some media outlets and bloggers in the last 10 years.. it seemed like every third world country and their mom were lining up for it.
but the reality is, not even Pakistan has received any yet.
countries that have access to western aircraft are buying western.
Egypt chose Rafale
Pakistan is sticking to JF-17s and F-16s
Bangladesh and Myanmar is sticking to Mig-29
many others chose Flankers
mid weight curse?