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    #61
    Something strikes me about the Korean/Indonesian, Indian, Turkish projects 5G projects. They all need TOT and because they are different projects, there will be multiple payments for TOT. There is a constraint on development costs for all these projects. I hear a report that the Turkish military is not enthusiastic about the Turkish project, being concerned that it will take up too much of the military budget. Cost overruns are the norm for these types of project. It would be sad if some of these projects were delayed by many, many years or even eventually abandoned due to lack of funding. Would it not have been more sensible to agree a useable (ideal for none) design and to build it together.

    I expect the response saying that it would not meet the specifications of the different armed forces but overall I think that compromising on specifications to save money actually increases the capability of an armed force because other equipment that could not be afforded within the budget becomes affordable.

    Another thing: suppose India selects a higher thrust version of GE-F414 for the AMCA (and pays for its development), that means Korea or Turkey could then select the same engine without having to pay for its development. I know the KF-X project is more advanced so it's more likely Korea would be paying for the thrust increase but you get the idea.
    Sum ergo cogito

    Comment


      #62
      Originally posted by KGB View Post
      This will be a bottomless money pit and a drain on the tax payer and treasury. And since they are starting from rock bottom with a clean slate design, it will become a political scandal and a national embarrassment just like the F 35 is. Cost overruns, unforeseen problems ect.

      There is no economic reason to do this
      I'm quite sure that u haven't read my first posting in this thread. As I've said, once more saying it, Korea have done numerous feasibility research which always resulted to be not feasible. What got KF-X through was an extremely high price of current and next generation aircraft produced overseas. What ROKAF cannot afford to do is spend all this goddamned money on those foreign products and get blamed for the budgetary outflow to other countries, benefiting their industry and economy. I, myself, personally was also against KFX and wanted the ROKAF to stick with the F-35, build a FACO and build a trustworthy power for an air dominance in near future. Though now it has gone through, thus their reason for doing this is quite reasonable, just like what eagle spirit said.
      Last edited by Maro.Kyo; 9th March 2017, 21:07.

      Comment


        #63
        Originally posted by Maro.Kyo View Post
        I'm quite sure that u haven't read my first posting in this thread. As I've said, once more saying it, Korea have done numerous feasibility research which always resulted to be not feasible. What got KF-X through was an extremely high price of current and next generation aircraft produced overseas. What ROKAF cannot afford to do is spend all this goddamned money on those foreign products and get blamed for the budgetary outflow to other countries, benefiting their industry and economy. I, myself, personally was also against KFX and wanted the ROKAF to stick with the F-35, build a FACO and build a trustworthy power for an air dominance in near future. Though now it has gone through, thus their reason for doing this is quite reasonable, just like what eagle spirit said.
        Why is spending money an issue?

        Unlike Turkey, South Korea has a GDP larger than Russia and Russia has no problem spending money on advanced weapon systems. The thing ROK lacks is long-term experience in building advanced weapons.

        Comment


          #64
          Originally posted by Maro.Kyo View Post
          I'm quite sure that u haven't read my first posting in this thread. As I've said, once more saying it, Korea have done numerous feasibility research which always resulted to be not feasible. What got KF-X through was an extremely high price of current and next generation aircraft produced overseas. What ROKAF cannot afford to do is spend all this goddamned money on those foreign products and get blamed for the budgetary outflow to other countries, benefiting their industry and economy. I, myself, personally was also against KFX and wanted the ROKAF to stick with the F-35, build a FACO and build a trustworthy power for an air dominance in near future. Though now it has gone through, thus their reason for doing this is quite reasonable, just like what eagle spirit said.
          Feasibility studies are always done but it doesn't change anything.

          Political parties use these kinds of programs as cannon fodder against each other. Who even knows what the truth is. The French aircraft carrier is just one example.

          S.Korea just has to decide if this is all worth it. Is it worth going down this road. The country is embroiled in a political crisis right now. So partisanship is alive and well. Whoever signs off on a full development program will be the 1st casualty.

          As aviation fanboys, who wouldn't want another 5th gen project to watch for the next 10 years ? Im all eyes and your technical input is welcome. We can separate the politics from the technical. I am speaking strictly on the political side now because that is where the project is.
          Last edited by KGB; 9th March 2017, 17:01.

          Comment


            #65
            Originally posted by KGB View Post
            I think Pierre Sprey is going to be right. There won't be more than 500 F-35's built.
            I think Pierre Sprey is the loon that he's always sounded like. There will be more than 500 F-35s delivered by 2020.

            Comment


              #66
              With the LRIP 10 contract, 373 F-35's (all types) are currently on firm order (200+ out of those have been delivered). This year the JPO intends to definitize the LRIP-11 contract which would bring the total ordered between 450-500+ range (don't know LRIP 11 off the top of my head). Additionally, LRIP 12 advanced funding is also going to be released this year which should take this number to beyond 600.
              Last edited by bring_it_on; 9th March 2017, 19:24.
              Old radar types never die; they just phased array

              Comment


                #67
                Originally posted by bring_it_on View Post
                With the LRIP 10 contract, 373 F-35's (all types) are currently on firm order (200+ out of those have been delivered). This year the JPO intends to definitize the LRIP-11 contract which would bring the total ordered between 450-500+ range (don't know LRIP 11 off the top of my head). Additionally, LRIP 12 advanced funding is also going to be released this year which should take this number to beyond 600.
                Thing is that while the USA could cancel all further F-35's at any time (including contracted lots), short of declaring production of F-35 illegal, LM will deliver several hundred more frames. Enough to go way past 500.
                Sum ergo cogito

                Comment


                  #68
                  Yeah..those who truly believe that "there won't be more than 500 aircraft built" are going to be disappointed very soon. But they are quite likely to shift that to " no more than 700...then 900...1200 etc" .
                  Old radar types never die; they just phased array

                  Comment


                    #69
                    Originally posted by djcross View Post
                    Why is spending money an issue?

                    Unlike Turkey, South Korea has a GDP larger than Russia and Russia has no problem spending money on advanced weapon systems. The thing ROK lacks is long-term experience in building advanced weapons.
                    Korea has different kind of GDP than Russia. Korean population is buried under debt and will go further under debt if they pull the limited engineering talent they produce into non productive sectors like building fighter plane.On other hand Russia can freely spend as much it wants.

                    Comment


                      #70
                      Originally posted by djcross View Post
                      Why is spending money an issue?

                      Unlike Turkey, South Korea has a GDP larger than Russia and Russia has no problem spending money on advanced weapon systems. The thing ROK lacks is long-term experience in building advanced weapons.
                      Why do ppl overlook the fact that aviation was always one of Russia's natural specialties ? And military arms.

                      Korea trying to build a world class fighter jet from scratch is like Russia trying to build a smartphone from scratch with the intention of competing with Samsung. Again. Both countries are capable. It is not impossible. Its just not practical.

                      Comment


                        #71
                        Originally posted by Spitfire9 View Post
                        Something strikes me about the Korean/Indonesian, Indian, Turkish projects 5G projects. They all need TOT and because they are different projects, there will be multiple payments for TOT. There is a constraint on development costs for all these projects. I hear a report that the Turkish military is not enthusiastic about the Turkish project, being concerned that it will take up too much of the military budget. Cost overruns are the norm for these types of project. It would be sad if some of these projects were delayed by many, many years or even eventually abandoned due to lack of funding. Would it not have been more sensible to agree a useable (ideal for none) design and to build it together.

                        I expect the response saying that it would not meet the specifications of the different armed forces but overall I think that compromising on specifications to save money actually increases the capability of an armed force because other equipment that could not be afforded within the budget becomes affordable.
                        Well, Spitfir9, your perspective on these projects are quite correct but let me give u some further information for better understandings.

                        First off, KF-X ain't a fully capable F-35 or F-3 alike 5th gen fighter development program but something in between the legacy 4.5th gen fighters and the 5th gen, I'll name it a 4.5th gen+ (TBH, I don't like using and seeing this "4.5+ gen" or "4.75" thingy, thanks to Russian folks who are so obsessed labeling their fighters 4.75th gen or 4.5th++ gen and so on, though IMHO for the KF-X this term suits perfectly). The Block.3 KF-X will replace the obsolete F-5s. What they aim to do is to upgrade the KF-X after Block.3 into something like Block.4(which doesn't even exist in the moment) 5th gen KF-X in the 2030s to replace F-16PBs and KF-16s.

                        I'm actually quite sure the AMCA will fail for the Indians like their Tejas and so do the TFX of the Turks, who aims to buy 100 F-35s, has way less money than Korea and a technology nothing better than Korea's late 2000s. In fact the Turks already had much problems designing the turboprop Hurkus, leading to extra WoongBi purchase from Korea.
                        Actually, before deciding to stick on their own with some help from SAAB and BAE, there were some discussion across Koreans and Turks for co-development in KF-X program, though the Turks were unsatisfied with their share in KF-X program and went indigenous. Also, the initial concept of TFX was just the same as FA-50; to build a supersonic trainer/fighter so a combat capable LIFT. This got changed some how afterwards and become the 5th gen fighter development of today.

                        Anyways, talking about the funding, at least KF-X wouldn't have such problem; not saying this with an irrational rosy optimistic perspective but a fact. The fact that ROKAF is only left with KF-X for the near future, let’s say, till mid 2030s. ROKAF cannot afford to do anything else if the KF-X fails. Their fighter fleet will collapse to 260 from something near 460. If the costs doubles or whatsoever, ROKAF would still be forced to continue the KF-X program, just like the JSF for USAF; choice is something that doesn't exists.

                        In comparison to Korea, who needs to face a crazy maniac with nukes and subs on the North, sponsor of this maniac on the West across the sea, a bear on the further North without any nukes inland, Turks and Indians have a waaay better situation. All their close neighbours are less capable than them, thus they are already gonna deploy other kind of assured 5th gen fighters in numbers unlike Korea, who was only able to buy 40 F-35s with the initial budget planned to buy 60 aircrafts, thus would only be able to buy 20 additional F-35s which is in plan. Therefore, once more to be clear, KF-X is now irreversible and irreplaceable and will be forced to go through any kind of difficulties.

                        Comment


                          #72
                          Originally posted by Spitfire9 View Post
                          Another thing: suppose India selects a higher thrust version of GE-F414 for the AMCA (and pays for its development), that means Korea or Turkey could then select the same engine without having to pay for its development. I know the KF-X project is more advanced so it's more likely Korea would be paying for the thrust increase but you get the idea.
                          Well, that's also in the agenda. Initial KF-X Blocks will be fitted with contracted F414-GE-400s, but according to GE, those F414-GE-400s can be refitted, replacing a few parts to be upgraded into EPE equivalent. Like what you have mentioned, India has decided to fund the EPE version of F414 so it will not going to be us to pay the development, thus I guess this is one of the main reason that F414 got selected over EJ200 apart from other numerous reasons.

                          Comment


                            #73
                            Originally posted by djcross View Post
                            Why is spending money an issue?

                            Unlike Turkey, South Korea has a GDP larger than Russia and Russia has no problem spending money on advanced weapon systems. The thing ROK lacks is long-term experience in building advanced weapons.
                            Well, the thing is, in the 3rd F-X, Korea wasn't even able to afford initially planned 60 aircraft due to the high cost of F-35 and was only able to get 40. Also, it is waay easier to get the defense budget approved when your buying a domestic product, due to the fact that congressmen usually prefers a domestic product that can create jobs, develop advanced technology, prevents the outflow of foreign currency, protect the domestic industry, etc. over a foreign product.

                            Comment


                              #74
                              Originally posted by KGB View Post
                              Feasibility studies are always done but it doesn't change anything.

                              Political parties use these kinds of programs as cannon fodder against each other. Who even knows what the truth is. The French aircraft carrier is just one example.

                              S.Korea just has to decide if this is all worth it. Is it worth going down this road. The country is embroiled in a political crisis right now. So partisanship is alive and well. Whoever signs off on a full development program will be the 1st casualty.

                              As aviation fanboys, who wouldn't want another 5th gen project to watch for the next 10 years ? Im all eyes and your technical input is welcome. We can separate the politics from the technical. I am speaking strictly on the political side now because that is where the project is.
                              Well, I'm not blaming you for saying anything and like what I've said, I was a F-35 supporter over KF-X before it got approved. What I'm basically saying is that it would have been a whole better choice to stick with the F-35 and just build a technology demonstrator for the future, but what's actually going on is that KF-X is now something real and getting worked on, thus the reason the ROKAF mentioned for developing KF-X ain't hard to understand and is also reasonable and rational on the other hand. Like what I've said, ROKAF experienced a some real expenses purchasing a 5th gen aircraft, not even being able to afford the initially aimed 60 wings but only 40. Thus, KF-X is not even a real 5th gen.

                              All together in a line, F-35 would have been better but is still understandable and IMHO, worth getting this KF-X program into work.

                              Comment


                                #75
                                Originally posted by JSR View Post
                                Korea has different kind of GDP than Russia. Korean population is buried under debt and will go further under debt if they pull the limited engineering talent they produce into non productive sectors like building fighter plane.On other hand Russia can freely spend as much it wants.

                                What do you mean by different kind of GDP? Different currency due to some recent events? Different industries? What so ever it is, I personally think Korea still has a better fiscal sustainability/health than Russia now days, whose main industry is natural resources unlike Korea. Well it would have been a big problem if there were the next oil shock/crisis to come in a year or two but that ain't the case now and for the near future. In fact Russia is undergoing reduction of military budget from this year and will continue for the next several years.

                                Thus even though Korean citizen are under debt, that is not the only case of Korea but all around the world thanks to subprime-mortgage crisis 9 years ago and European citizen along the former American middle-class are going though same kind of difficulties. Moreover, governmental debt is really low in Korea, being only around 35~ 8% of GDP and still around 68 % of GDP when all the debts of public/government enterprises and institutions are putted into account. The households debt of 2017 is around $ 40600 per economically active population and is half of that when the debt is divided by all the population capable of economically over the age of 15. So it needs some help from appropriate gov. policy but ain't as serious as the nuance of what you've wrote.

                                Comment


                                  #76
                                  Originally posted by halloweene View Post
                                  Nice, but shouldn't it be on a different dedicated topic?
                                  Well, I've thought of doing so but I would eventually be updating this thread whenever I get an additional information and news so I've posted it here. Seems like people aren't giving much attention to this thread or the topic so I would rather make a new dedicated thread named, for example "Plasma application on fighters" if possible, tho I'm not sure if its alright to post a same thing on a different thread on the same time.
                                  Personally, I find this thing very interesting and maybe can be a game changer of aircraft and weapons development in the near future, well not only weapons but so many varieties of possible application and would like to discuss more about this topic so I'll do make a new thread if anyone tells me that it's ok to do so

                                  Comment


                                    #77
                                    There is a thread (or maybe more than one) on plasma tech

                                    http://forum.keypublishing.com/showt...ghlight=plasma

                                    Comment


                                      #78
                                      Originally posted by Maro.Kyo View Post
                                      Well, I've thought of doing so but I would eventually be updating this thread whenever I get an additional information and news so I've posted it here. Seems like people aren't giving much attention to this thread or the topic so I would rather make a new dedicated thread named, for example "Plasma application on fighters" if possible, tho I'm not sure if its alright to post a same thing on a different thread on the same time.
                                      Personally, I find this thing very interesting and maybe can be a game changer of aircraft and weapons development in the near future, well not only weapons but so many varieties of possible application and would like to discuss more about this topic so I'll do make a new thread if anyone tells me that it's ok to do so
                                      i think you can google translate if you wish. ONERA is working on plasma, but they did not publish any paper about stealth since. (Although they did about actuators, laminar flow control etc.)

                                      Comment


                                        #79
                                        Originally posted by Maro.Kyo View Post
                                        What do you mean by different kind of GDP? Different currency due to some recent events? Different industries? What so ever it is, I personally think Korea still has a better fiscal sustainability/health than Russia now days, whose main industry is natural resources unlike Korea. Well it would have been a big problem if there were the next oil shock/crisis to come in a year or two but that ain't the case now and for the near future. In fact Russia is undergoing reduction of military budget from this year and will continue for the next several years.

                                        Thus even though Korean citizen are under debt, that is not the only case of Korea but all around the world thanks to subprime-mortgage crisis 9 years ago and European citizen along the former American middle-class are going though same kind of difficulties. Moreover, governmental debt is really low in Korea, being only around 35~ 8% of GDP and still around 68 % of GDP when all the debts of public/government enterprises and institutions are putted into account. The households debt of 2017 is around $ 40600 per economically active population and is half of that when the debt is divided by all the population capable of economically over the age of 15. So it needs some help from appropriate gov. policy but ain't as serious as the nuance of what you've wrote.
                                        Russia has different kind of GDP. Russia can bomb Middleast and import price rise will be paid by Korea. Corporate Korea is completely depended on foreign skills, raw materials, markets, industry. It is inherently deeply corrupt. Russia has made Yota phone based on imported components but it can fully manufacture most advance communication devices for military. Just look Putin official planes. but not in millions that need millions in third world labor to manufacture and diversified sofyware, marketing and sales teams for each market that can make the host country dysfunctional.

                                        Comment


                                          #80
                                          Originally posted by Maro.Kyo View Post
                                          ..
                                          OT but have you come across a higher resolution picture of this (screen grab)? Or any photo of all of the ROKAF's E-7's together?
                                          Attached Files
                                          Last edited by bring_it_on; 10th March 2017, 03:39.
                                          Old radar types never die; they just phased array

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