Rise of the 6th Generation Fighter ...

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19 years 9 months

Posts: 12,109

This deals with the 6th generation fighter requirments. The US Navy, Issued RFP's last year for a 6th generation fighter, with the aim of replacing the F-18E/F begining 2030-2035. Although it is not an official program yet, but it is in the nascent stage...

Sixth generation fighter aircraft: rise of the F/A-XX

http://www.airforce-technology.com/features/featuresixth-generation-fighters-boeing-lockheed

U.S. Navy Eyes Open-Avionics Testbed For Future Aircraft

The U.S. Navy is canvassing industry interest in a program to demonstrate potential open avionics architectures for the planned Future Vertical Lift (FVL) advanced rotorcraft and F/A-XX next-generation air dominance fighter

http://www.aviationweek.com/Article.aspx?id=/article-xml/asd_03_15_2013_p02-01-559428.xml&p=1

Propulsion key to F/A-XX

http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/the-dewline/2012/04/propulsion-key-to-fa-xx.html

Lockheed Concept:

http://www.airforce-technology.com/uploads/newsarticle/724703/images/148032/large/3-lockheed-martin.jpg

http://www.aviationweek.com/media/images/fullsize/Defense/Fighters/NextGenFighter-LockMart.jpg

Boeing Concept :

http://www.airforce-technology.com/uploads/newsarticle/724703/images/148033/large/4-boeing-fa-xx.jpg

Lets talk about what features are likely to be "wanted" and "doable" for such a system, in such a timeline.. I know funding is scarce, but if the USN plays it smart, they will go with RFP's and positioning themselves strategically when it comes to developing key technology that once mature, could lead them to go ahead and start an official program in the next 4-5 years...

In my opinion, USN will likely ask for a Fast, Supercruising, VLO asset that has SIGNIFICANT Electronic attack capability.

Original post

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24 years 2 months

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Expect a decade of studies and small technology development programs.
Pentagon will not issue development contracts until the mid 2020s with IOC in the late 2030s/early 2040s.

Member for

19 years 9 months

Posts: 12,109

Expect a decade of studies and small technology development programs.

Yeah, that is what i think as well..Key technology like propulsion, avionics will be driven (growth). I still think, that given economic recovery, and a new president that the USN could go at it much earlier then 2025 (Around 2020) ...The key here would be REQUIRMENTS, what the USN needs as a complement to the F-35 is not a "smarter , better" F-35, but a better N-ATF with signficant EW capability and also some eventual ground attack capability. The problem with that is, the moment you start to put high end performance in propulsion, airframe (High end supercruise, Extreme LO etc) the cost really goes out of control. From the Very early concepts we can all ready see a contrast in the 2 designs...

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Should be a relatively conservative program for service-entry in early 2030s with more ambitious proposals (DEW, hypersonics, etc.) merged with concept formerly known as the 2037 bomber. Doubt they'll be that smart tho.

Member for

19 years 9 months

Posts: 12,109

Should be a relatively conservative program for service-entry in 2030

I think the service entry will be in the 30's or early 40's, but nothing is set in stone. The USN believes that from program start it would take them 2 decades to IOC (that is fairly conservative estimate and a pretty doable one). Given certain scenarios, and some luck the USN could begin early (2018-2020) however even then 2030 is very optimistic.

Regarding capability, i do not think it will be too conservative, as the USN has had to swallow some performance pill when they lost the F-14 and did not get the N-ATF. The problem will be cost , cost and well cost :-)..The USN plans to spend around 25-30 billion in acquiring F-35C's (my guess) over the years and that would eat a lot into their Fighter budget. There would be some push to use the F-35 to replace E/F's as well once the F-35 C production winds down so the USN would have to overcome that lobby as well. I think the 2016 Presidential election would play a BIG role, as some republican leaders have all ready hinted that they wish to engage in high tech weapon system development and procurement (Romney wanted to re start the F-22 production line ;-) )

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24 years 2 months

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There was what could be a monumental decision made by Panetta before he left which changes the CSG's role. In essence, USAF fights the "first week of the war" and USN is allowed to participate after the threat to the CSG is beat down. USN was given the role of go-anywhere/anytime irregular warfare troubleshooter because it takes USAF too long to deploy. F-35 could be the last uber-high tech jet on the flight deck.

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19 years 9 months

Posts: 12,109

What if some immediate action needs to be taken, and waiting for USAF to forward deploy and set up shop is not an option? Regardless, the USN would still want to have a2a capability to defend itself against 5th generation threats, and it makes little sense to go and buy more SH post 2030. Only option then would be to have an exclusive F-35 fleet, or have a mixed fleet.

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15 years 5 months

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i wonder how oilprices will affect 6 gen designs.
To me these drawings seems to about "buisness as usual", but...
In the real world, it going to be extremly expensive to fly these two turbine petrol guzzlers in a two decades. I think the requirements will change.
i think the fighter will not be a fighter in that sence, only a weapons carrier with extreme sensors. no fun anymore :(

http://www.roperld.com/science/minerals/Oil_USGasolinePricesPrediction.htm

But also, i think these designs will not be developed until 2050. F-35 will be the US platform for a long long time. it will only be refined over the years in new revisions.

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15 years 5 months

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I think only a handful countries can afford a few starships with DE,
the rest will keep flying old fighters if operational cost allows it,
and replace with UCAV & GBAD.
Suffice to say i'm not thrilled.
http://www.roperld.com/science/minerals/OilPricePrediction.jpg

Member for

19 years 9 months

Posts: 12,109

i think the fighter will not be a fighter in that sence, only a weapons carrier with extreme sensors. no fun anymore

The DOD has realized this (what you have said) even while operating legacy fleet with Data links and high situational awareness (through support aircraft, PGM's , SAT's etc) hence we see the F-35, where efficency is defined not in the pure sense (turn rate, roll rate, etc etc) but by mission success purely using it as a weapons system (part of a greater network )...

Regarding Oil prices , i do not think this will determine a whole lot the nature of the weapons system, what play a role would be the economic situation and the political atmosphere..

But also, i think these designs will not be developed until 2050. F-35 will be the US platform for a long long time. it will only be refined over the years in new revisions.

You are correct, any new ambitious program has to deal with :

* Increasing lobby from LMA, suggesting upgraded F-35's
* Increasing money crunch from the congress
* Increasing lobby from LMA, to re visit the N-Atf and kick start F-22 program

among other things...But the USN has had an itch for a long time, after not being in the fore front on either the N-ATF or the JSF. Boeing has a lot of say in this as the article explains.

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15 years 5 months

Posts: 1,577

Regarding Oil prices , i do not think this will determine a whole lot the nature of the weapons system, what play a role would be the economic situation and the political atmosphere..

In 2050 the price of fuel is predicted to be 6-7 times higher than today. That figure are predicted to damperd the need for fuel so much, so its going a downhill after 2030. So in reality a new energy source for transportation are allready taken into account.

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19 years 9 months

Posts: 12,109

In 2050 the price of fuel is predicted to be 6-7 times higher than today. That figure are predicted to damperd the need for fuel so much, so its going a downhill after 2030. So in reality a new energy source for transportation are allready taken into account.

In 2050, Fighters will still be using oil, there is no other way around it. Cost of operations will go up, and in return greater emphasis might be put on Efficiency in addition to performance. We will also see (as we are seeing today) greater training on sims and lesser flying as sims get better and better at simulating real life scenarios...

Member for

15 years 5 months

Posts: 1,577

Regarding Oil prices , i do not think this will determine a whole lot the nature of the weapons system, what play a role would be the economic situation and the political atmosphere..

In 2050 the price of fuel is predicted to be 6-7 times higher than today. That figure are predicted to damperd the need for fuel so much, so its going a downhill after 2030. So in reality a new energy source for transportation are allready taken into account in the predictions.

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11 years 6 months

Posts: 578

Boeing has this contract in the bag. No way the Pentagon will contract Lockheed for this jet after the F-35 disaster.

Member for

19 years 6 months

Posts: 3,609

I think only a handful countries can afford a few starships with DE,
the rest will keep flying old fighters if operational cost allows it,
and replace with UCAV & GBAD.
Suffice to say i'm not thrilled.
http://www.roperld.com/science/minerals/OilPricePrediction.jpg

What's your investment recommendation? :D

Member for

19 years 9 months

Posts: 12,109

Boeing has this contract in the bag. No way the Pentagon will contract Lockheed for this jet after the F-35 disaster.

This is a joke. This is not the way the DOD works, Lockheed still manages to pick up contracts despite their performance. If the DOD looks at fiscal performance, even boeing and Northrop have had their share of trouble. What will be used in favour of LMA would be that they are the only company expereinced with leading design and production of a 5th generation fighter, others have NONE. Having said that, given that the FA-XX will be a small program, we might see boeing and LMA come together on this (not a possibility we can rule out) ... Where boeing scores is that they have a great working relation with the USN, having taken up a lot of retired navy people ;-)

Member for

20 years 6 months

Posts: 4,441

i wonder how oilprices will affect 6 gen designs.
To me these drawings seems to about "buisness as usual", but...
In the real world, it going to be extremly expensive to fly these two turbine petrol guzzlers in a two decades. I think the requirements will change.
i think the fighter will not be a fighter in that sence, only a weapons carrier with extreme sensors. no fun anymore :(

http://www.roperld.com/science/minerals/Oil_USGasolinePricesPrediction.htm

But also, i think these designs will not be developed until 2050. F-35 will be the US platform for a long long time. it will only be refined over the years in new revisions.

The oil is a good point which the USN is trying to figure out how to deal with. what i don't understand is how does the navy think it will get money to fund the new aircraft..

My understanding is that it is already struggling to defend the need for the marine corps and also ability to keep what it thinks will be the minimum number of ships at sea.

also supercruise is good to have but it is a requisite, trade in the supercruise requirement for other functionally important requirements.

Member for

19 years 9 months

Posts: 12,109

what i don't understand is how does the navy think it will get money to fund the new aircraft..

Precisely ! The USN will keep working on RFP's and looking to develop some dual use and future technology until they see political and economic conditions ripe enough to look for support that would be required before they can launch a program. At some point in time, with the right things in place (politics) the navy can find support for a program that replaces the super hornets in the 2030-2040 time frame.

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11 years 10 months

Posts: 980

UCAV

I do not think a 6th gen aircraft will be a manned design. The F-35 may very well be the last manned fighter the U.S. produces. It also may be the last fighter the U.S. produces at all...

Member for

19 years 9 months

Posts: 12,109

I do not think a 6th gen aircraft will be a manned design. The F-35 may very well be the last manned fighter the U.S. produces. It also may be the last fighter the U.S. produces at all...

I think it would be manned, with an option to have it "optionally manned" in later blocks. It was written around when the JSf started that this would be the last manned fighter, and that UCAV's will be taking over most missions into the future. Fast forward, the JUCAS , X-45,47 etc are going no where, the USAF next big project LRS-B will most likely be manned.

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15 years 5 months

Posts: 6,983

What's your investment recommendation? :D

Citizenship of an oil-rich country :)