American asks for comments and views on Scottish referendum

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Member for

19 years 5 months

Posts: 9,821

I'm an American so I don't have "a dog in this fight" (and unlike many here I try to ovoid voicing opinions on something I know little about) so I come to you for some local comments.

With the new poll that suggests the Scottish nationalists might win, what are your thoughts?

I did note Paul McCartney is against the separation...but didn't he write a song back in the day that urged "Give Ireland back to the Irish"...telling the UK to give up Northern Ireland?
I guess being a "Sir" (not to mention an OAP) has changed his views on the makeup of the UK.

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Member for

11 years 5 months

Posts: 11,141

As an English born Brit who has spent nearly as much time north of the border as south I favour the Union. But if the residents of Scotland choose to leave the Union that's their choice. Economically and fiscally it is likely to hurt them a great deal more than it will hurt us but by the time they realise it it will be too late.

The yes voters are buying into Salmond's flight of fantasy without any clear understanding of the realities of independence. A Scottish voter in Edinburgh neatly summed it up yesterday when he said his heart was telling him to vote yes but his mind was telling him to vote no, and he had decided to follow his mind.

And the so called elephant in the room which has attracted little discussion is the Northern Isles. They are anti SNP and anti Edinburgh so will not be happy with a yes vote particularly if it is very close. And Shetland has much of the oil of Salmond's flaky foundations.

Member for

17 years 6 months

Posts: 9,739

Watching some of the coverage of opinion from Scotland this vote seems to be as much about ensuring that the Conservative Party never again has any say in Sottish government as anything else; it will be interesting to see the balance of power change in the rest of the United Kingdom if and when Scottish independence comes.

To me, the parallels with British voters who want to leave the European Union are many.

At the end of the day it is far easier to vote in a new administration, or vote yourselves out of a union, that it is to actually solve the problems that you blame on the current administration, or union.

Member for

11 years 5 months

Posts: 11,141

Exactly right and to vote for a complete transformation of your national status for such narrow and opportunist reasons seems utterly bizarre. It rather proves how little the implications are being thought through.

And of course the loss of nearly 60 seats at Westminster for Labour will probably be irreversible in terms of their prospects in the UK for the next decade or two.

Member for

24 years 2 months

Posts: 16,832

With the new poll that suggests the Scottish nationalists might win, what are your thoughts?

I am hoping that the nationalists do win their independence. Since they feel it will be a 'good thing' I am happy that they should give it a go and find out the reality. I bear them no ill-will for the disaster that was Gordon Brown.

Personally I feel it will almost certainly be a 'bad thing' for them, but then that being the case their exit can only be a 'good thing' for England, Wales and N Ireland.

Interesting times.

Moggy

Member for

17 years 6 months

Posts: 9,739

My only real concern is the defence implications; international commerce has little respect for national borders these days (assuming no artificial restrictions apply).

Russia is doing a lot of 'sabre-rattling' at the moment; one prominent Russian commentator even suggesting that a nuclear strike somewhere in Europe will convince NATO to keep its nose out of Russian affairs (and by Russian affairs he means invading other countries to protect an ethnic Russian population that is only there because they were left behind from the last time Russia invaded said countries). The break-up of the only (large) country in Europe that spends more than 2% of GDP on defence (a NATO benchmark) and the removal of Trident submarines from a new 'nuclear free' Scotland will only be interpreted as evidence of weakness and will encourage Russia into possibly more dangerous territory.

Now an independent Scotland will probably be in NATO (and like other 'nuclear free' NATO nations they can have the protection of other nation's nuclear-weapons without all the cost, and grief from the anti-nuclear lobby) but will they be able to maintain the 2%-3% of GDP spend on defence that the United Kingdom has managed over the last decade? Maybe, but what about when the oil revenue runs dry?

Of course, Scotland will have to take responsibility for much of the NATO Northern Air-Defence Region and take responsibility for intercepting Russian aircraft over the North Sea because I doubt aircraft from the United Kingdom will be allowed into Scottish airspace; or will they? Scotland will be taking on a lot of airspace on the frontline, a lot of ocean on the frontline and a lot of air-sea rescue territory; will Scotland maintain the levels of 'security' over their sovereign territory or will they 'leave the back door open' so to speak? Or will the assets of other 'NATO' nations be expected to fill the breach (at the expense of those other notions)?

My guess is that an independent Scotland will gradually reduce defence spending to a token level suitable only for very minor 'peacekeeping' roles as the Scottish electorate clamour for the 'no cuts, no austerity' land of milk-and-honey that they hoped independence would bring yet that no large economy in Europe has managed so far (no matter how far their 'socialist' government is in ideology from the Conservative party).

Member for

12 years 11 months

Posts: 6,535

Does anyone REALLY care ? Don't get yourselves in a lather. The impact of a 'Yes' vote on the rest of the British Isles will be next to zero. Life will go on as if nothing has happened.

Member for

17 years 6 months

Posts: 9,739

I tend to agree; actual physical changes will occur gradually and will be difficult to distinguish from the background of normal non-related change...

...however, the more important 'artificial' changes may arrive very fast, and have very great implications.

Look at the 'banking crisis' for example; did anything actually physically change to precipitate it?

Member for

15 years 7 months

Posts: 44

And where would we all be without Fred the shred?

Member for

18 years 7 months

Posts: 1,376

The country wouldn't half be a funny shape without Scotland. A bit like a fat rabbit sat knitting. And, er, looking at something...

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Member for

18 years 9 months

Posts: 2,766

Does anyone REALLY care ?

:very_drunk:

Member for

11 years 5 months

Posts: 11,141

Does anyone REALLY care ? .

About 49% of the Scottish electorate if it's a close call!!:D Down South? - not many I should have thought! And I meant to remind the OP across the pond that it's not an ELECTION it's a REFERENDUM.

Member for

11 years 3 months

Posts: 1,300

With the new poll that suggests the Scottish nationalists might win

A lot of people up here are hoping that that poll is giving a false reading. Going back several months everybody was talking freely about the referendum and how they were going to vote and it was possible to have a civil conversation about it. Over the last couple of months that has definitely changed - the Yes voters are still vocal but everyone else is talking in whispers and conversation on the subject stops when anyone enters the room. People have faced verbal abuse and aggression - particularly in the cities. Only today I heard of an active No campaigner in a small local village having his phone lines cut. It is very easy now to lose customers/ clients through expressing the 'wrong' opinion so it's really best to say either nothing or to agree with whichever side of the argument is being put to you. It could be that some are telling the polls that they will vote Yes out of fear.

Whatever the result it has sadly been a very divisive process.

Member for

11 years 5 months

Posts: 11,141

And just think how that divisiveness will fester if the vote is close run? Salmond has a great deal to answer for. Scotland will be the loser whatever the result.

Member for

12 years 11 months

Posts: 6,535

Re 13

That's a very telling last sentence. Whatever the result, this HAS been a very divisive process and even if the naysayers slide home the result will be a de facto independence - in everything but name.

Member for

17 years 6 months

Posts: 9,739

I am not even sure how the current devolution works?

Scotland now has its own government but doesn't Scotland also have Members of Parliament with votes to cast in the Westminster Parliament? What matters do these Scottish Members of the Westminster Parliament get to vote on; for example, do they get to vote on matters of education in English schools (when Scotland has its own education system)?

I often hear the criticism that the Scottish people feel they are not given enough representation by the Westminster Parliament but if I'm correct in the example above a Scottish voter gets one representative to vote in matters under the control of the Scottish Parliament and another representative to vote in matters under the control of the Westminster Parliament, even if those matters only affect the English electorate.

And now we hear that even more powers are to be devolved even if there is a 'no' vote.

Member for

11 years 3 months

Posts: 1,300

doesn't Scotland also have Members of Parliament with votes to cast in the Westminster Parliament? What matters do these Scottish Members of the Westminster Parliament get to vote on; for example, do they get to vote on matters of education in English schools (when Scotland has its own education system)?

Yes - in my area we have the SNP's Roseanna Cunningham in Edinburgh and Labour's Gordon Banks in Westminster with, I believe, a vote on all matters arising whether directly affecting Scotland or not.

Member for

18 years 11 months

Posts: 8,847

The Yes vote is a negative, Scotland will rue that day in history if it comes to pass!

Member for

17 years 5 months

Posts: 8,980

My opinion is if they vote for it then good for them, but it needs to be a clean cut, I can understand the likes Brown being against it as he will be effectively out of a job as a Scots MP.

I would also ( if any of the powers are furthers devolved to Scotland, for which we will not be able to vote on ) prevent Scottish MP's on voting on anything not involving Scotland.

I also worry that the whole premise of Salmonds case rests on the revenue from Oil, what happens when that runs out, If the Country splits up then the Danish might ask for the Shetlands back, and of course that would give them the oil rights ;)
My other concern is over the pound etc, I totally agree with the arguments against it, even the threat of a yes vote is affecting our currency exchange rate, imagine what will happen if they actually get devolution.

Member for

13 years

Posts: 2,841

Tell them the price of Buckfast will treble and the same with fried Mars Bars. That should bring the overweight porkers into line!
If they want their own country fine,give them nothing let them start from scratch.
As for work there is a law that says only Royal Navy ships can be built in the UK so cancel the 3 OPV's and the 13 replacements for the type 23 Frigates and cancel the closure of shipbuilding in Portsmouth.