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  • Spartabus
    Rank 5 Registered User
    • Jan 2013
    • 325

    Re:-the FAA and the stress/fatigue cracks around the SATCOM aerial. Fine theory, however this airframe was not SATCOM equipped. Whilst it does seem as if a total failure of the airframe at very high altitude for what ever reason is the most likely cause for the loss. I wish people would just step clear of the speculation.

    With regards to the data being sent 'live' to Rolls Royce, as stated this aircraft was not SATCOM equipped so how was this achieved? I am guessing that we are seeing a buffering lag, however the tinfoil hat brigade will shout conspiracy.

    With regards to the conspiracy theorists, I regularly monitor the US Rightwing press and there are all sorts of claims on various websites and forums (try The Blaze if you want to scare yourself silly!) about this aircraft being in North Korea/China/Iran. This is so the respective governments there can interogate the 'Stealth Technology' technical specialists on board and then 'discover' the wreckage and the bodies at a later date, thus being seen as international heros.
    A similar claim has been made about Burma, but this may have been a very poor taste joust at the Spitfire dig.

    Comment

    • charliehunt
      Nearly there!
      • Oct 2012
      • 11459

      I agree with Bmused's lasst point.

      As for conspiracy theories as described above, they fall into the same category as tatty tabloid journalism, so can be easily avoided.
      Charlie

      Keep smiling - it's never as bad as you think!!

      Comment

      • Matt-100
        Rank 5 Registered User
        • Jul 2012
        • 568

        Originally posted by charliehunt View Post
        Taking your first point, if verifiable, surely any unidentified aircraft in a nation's airspace will be investigated and physically identified, won't it, especially if it did not respond to radio calls?
        They didn't realise the significance of what they were seeing until after they had reports of a missing aircraft. Which raises the question did civil ATC wait too long before sounding the alarm?
        http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/03/14..._r=0&referrer=

        The BBC is also reporting the Chinese satellite images were released by "accident" however that happens?
        Feel free to check out my aviation pictures at http://www.flickr.com/photos/lhr_spotter/ - comments welcome

        Comment

        • charliehunt
          Nearly there!
          • Oct 2012
          • 11459

          I meant to suggest that, surely, ANY unidentified aircraft must be seen as a risk and investigated. Or not?
          Charlie

          Keep smiling - it's never as bad as you think!!

          Comment

          • PanzerJohn
            Rank 5 Registered User
            • Aug 2008
            • 765

            This was posted on PPRUNE, sounds a sensible and viable scenario..

            "I am a licenced engineer, B747.
            This post attempts to describe, with precedents, a possible single failure that would cause loss of coms, depressurisation and crew disablement due to hypoxia.

            Precedent: QF30 25 July 2008 Pax oxygen bottle "explodes" tearing a hole in fuselage.

            Ref: Please google "Qantas oxygen bottle explosion" and view photos of damage.
            The picture taken inside the fwd cargo compartment shows one bottle missing.
            there is no evidence of shrapnel damage in the photo. Therefore, no eplosion.
            The bottle appears to have detached itself from its connections and propelled itself down through the fuselage skin.

            777: The crew oxygen bottle is mounted horizontaly on the left aft wall of the nose wheel well structure with the fittings (propelling nozzle) facing forward. This aims the bottle, in the event of a QF30 type failure, directly into the MEC containing all boxes concerned with coms and a lot more.
            Before all of its energy is spent, an huge amount of damage could be caused to equipment and the bottle could, conceivably, cause a decompression.
            When the crew respond by doning oxygen mask, there is no oxygen and hypoxia is the next link in this proposed chain of events.
            This link is entitled "Hypothetical" and is only that. I believe it ticks a few boxes.
            Hoping this post make it and generates some discussion."
            Last edited by PanzerJohn; 13th March 2014, 12:00.

            Comment

            • Bmused55
              Aaahh Emu!
              • Oct 2003
              • 11136

              Apparently not.

              Later in that thread it is mentioned that the OXY bottles are placed in such a way, that if the restraints were to fail, it'll shoot through the radome or perhaps in the space below the flight deck were the mechanism that links the yolk and rudder pedals to each other is. (note: It links the left and right set of controls to one another, so if one moves, the other does. It is not the main linkage to the flight controls)
              Bmused55

              Keep thy airspeed up, less the earth come from below and smite thee.

              My Blog
              My Designs

              Comment

              • J Boyle
                With malice towards none
                • Oct 2004
                • 9751

                Originally posted by Bmused55 View Post
                No, the press are more interested in ratings. Being the first with some sort of new information ups ratings and money intake.
                These investigators are probably doing their level best, but are caving to the pressures of the world's press.
                The press should be held on a leesh and told the back the heck off and let these people try and focus on finding the aircraft.
                The "press" is hardly a unified entity. Various outlets are asking various people various questions...and surprise...they're getting various answers.
                The lack of decent media relations from the Malaysian govt. isn't helping matters.
                Last edited by J Boyle; 13th March 2014, 17:16.
                There are two sides to every story. The truth is usually somewhere between the two.

                Comment

                • topspeed
                  Get on uppah !
                  • Jan 2009
                  • 2655

                  Originally posted by RN Phantom View Post
                  Photo of some wreckage that was shown on Sky News. At first glance it looks like it could be one of the wing exit hatches.
                  To me it looks like the small carco area door with window in the middle ?
                  If it looks good, it will fly good !
                  -Bill Lear & Marcel Dassault


                  http://max3fan.blogspot.com/

                  Comment

                  • Reckless Rat
                    Talking ******** as usual
                    • Dec 2011
                    • 106

                    Originally posted by Bmused55 View Post
                    Sky News
                    Is it just me, or is that half the problem, right there? Sky News (or as I like to call them, Sky "Oh, please, GOD let there actually be some" News) and the like's rolling 24/7 'News' coverage creates an insatiable demand for something to actually happen to fill their broadcasts, to the point that any vague statement or suggestion or half-baked theory is seized upon and broadcast across the world - where it is picked up by other channels in a similar situation, thereby gaining credence as it goes. Village newspaper reports "Bloke down the pub says...". TV channel reports on that report, others report on that report of the report, and this continues until everyone disappears up their own fundament. Still, it's not like they care, because they can create some more hot air reporting on the 'breaking development' that the original hot air was, in fact, hot air. Stay tuned for more on this story as it happens...
                    My Lord, I have a cunning plan...

                    Comment

                    • charliehunt
                      Nearly there!
                      • Oct 2012
                      • 11459

                      I am sure that's right and it's not only Sky - the BBC, CNN, Al Jazeerah etc are all just as bad and you can append the same name-tag to each!!
                      Charlie

                      Keep smiling - it's never as bad as you think!!

                      Comment

                      • TomcatViP
                        Rank 5 Registered User
                        • Nov 2011
                        • 6048

                        Originally posted by PanzerJohn View Post
                        This was posted on PPRUNE, sounds a sensible and viable scenario..

                        "I am a licenced engineer, B747.
                        This post attempts to describe, with precedents, a possible single failure that would cause loss of coms, depressurisation and crew disablement due to hypoxia.
                        [...]
                        777: The crew oxygen bottle is mounted horizontaly on the left aft wall of the nose wheel well structure with the fittings (propelling nozzle) facing forward. This aims the bottle, in the event of a QF30 type failure, directly into the MEC containing all boxes concerned with coms and a lot more. [...]
                        After 10sec searching, I found that:

                        Click image for larger version

Name:	OxBottles_777 -large.jpg
Views:	1
Size:	99.1 KB
ID:	3652549

                        close-up view:

                        Click image for larger version

Name:	OxBottles_777 -1.jpg
Views:	1
Size:	78.7 KB
ID:	3652550

                        regarding the propulsive effect:
                        Years ago I had to design an "Ice gun" (dry ice). At that time I had to check that the recoil effect was not like what we see in Hollywood. It was not. But I would have to check for the exact type of bottle here.

                        The only thing I see as plausible in the scenario above is that the cockpit sustained a fire during enough time to "cook-up" the bottle (there is a battery and a fuel tank nearby). However it does not fit with the loss of of the transponder unless you imagin a general shortcut (fuel leak?).

                        Anyhow. What have been said by the poster does not fit the bill of a basic check (10 secondes via google)
                        Last edited by TomcatViP; 13th March 2014, 21:30.

                        Comment

                        • Primate
                          Rank 5 Registered User
                          • Jan 2000
                          • 655

                          Has anyone seen or heard any reports regarding PSR coverage in the region and if it has been of any value to the search? I'm thinking along the lines of military EW stations and such.

                          Comment

                          • Cking
                            Rank 5 Registered User
                            • Oct 2004
                            • 1000

                            Originally posted by TomcatViP View Post
                            The only thing I see as plausible in the scenario above is that the cockpit sustained a fire during enough time to "cook-up" the bottle (there is a battery and a fuel tank nearby). However it does not fit with the loss of of the transponder unless you imagin a general shortcut (fuel leak?).
                            (10 secondes via google)
                            A fuel tank near the battery and the oxygen bottle???? Could you tell me more? I think you may be onto something.

                            Rgds Cking (B777 licenced aircraft engineer)

                            Comment

                            • J Boyle
                              With malice towards none
                              • Oct 2004
                              • 9751

                              You seem in an awful hurry to blame the aircraft.
                              1. Has a situation like you described ever happened?
                              2. Would it account for the turn?
                              3. Would it account for no ELT transmissions?
                              4. Would it account for the latest media reports of some systems still reporting for 4 hours after it dropped off the scope?
                              5. Would it account for no debris field over its intended route?

                              Until you can say "yes" to a majority of those questions, you're just guessing.
                              There are two sides to every story. The truth is usually somewhere between the two.

                              Comment

                              • TomcatViP
                                Rank 5 Registered User
                                • Nov 2011
                                • 6048

                                2. Yes: partial electrical failure (leak + battery) then fire then catastrophic mechanical failure (I don't want to speculate too much but I have in mind that the pilots might have died or being ejected)
                                3. Transponder 1 is in the cockpit. Transponder 2 might not have been reachable for crew stuck in the cabin (cockpit closed for security reasons)
                                4. If Structural damage was on the frwd section only, the others system might have operated "normally" and AP keep the plane flyable until... (left blank : horrible thought)
                                5. Cockpit only.

                                I fear that the loss of that 777 might have been an horrific agonizing experience for all those involved (passengers and else)
                                Last edited by TomcatViP; 14th March 2014, 02:21.

                                Comment

                                • TomcatViP
                                  Rank 5 Registered User
                                  • Nov 2011
                                  • 6048

                                  Originally posted by Cking View Post
                                  A fuel tank near the battery and the oxygen bottle???? Could you tell me more? I think you may be onto something.

                                  Rgds Cking (B777 licenced aircraft engineer)
                                  I tried to speculate further for the good of this discussion. (see above)

                                  Regards,

                                  Tom (Consultant in Eng)

                                  Comment

                                  • charliehunt
                                    Nearly there!
                                    • Oct 2012
                                    • 11459

                                    J Boyle - no one can say yes to anything because almost nothing is known for certain apart from its disappearance, particularly as there has been so much contradictory information.
                                    Charlie

                                    Keep smiling - it's never as bad as you think!!

                                    Comment

                                    • Bmused55
                                      Aaahh Emu!
                                      • Oct 2003
                                      • 11136

                                      Jon Ostrower, Aerospace & Boeing beat reporter for The Wall Street Journal, is stating that the last ping from the missing aircraft to satellites was 5 hours after it went missing and was from over water.
                                      He's holding firm to this claim. He says he does not know the exact location, but as that ping includes GPS, speed and alt data, he says there will be those that do know. And now the US is sending a ship to the Indian Ocean to search a very specific spot.

                                      I am slowly beginning to suspect pilot suicide.

                                      If you think about it for a moment, most previous pilot suicides involving a simple nose dive have always been found out, thus invalidating any insurance claims the suicide was supposed to cause.

                                      So, perhaps, just perhaps, the desperate person in this case tried to be cunning and take the plane somewhere it'll never be found, thus ensuring any insurance they took out pays up?

                                      Just as valid a theory as all the others!
                                      A horrible one I know. And one I REALLY, REALLY hope is not found to be true. However, it does fit with the known facts and emerging information.
                                      Last edited by Bmused55; 14th March 2014, 08:22.
                                      Bmused55

                                      Keep thy airspeed up, less the earth come from below and smite thee.

                                      My Blog
                                      My Designs

                                      Comment

                                      • charliehunt
                                        Nearly there!
                                        • Oct 2012
                                        • 11459

                                        Reuters are now quoting sources stating the aircraft was deliberately flown to the Andaman Islands!
                                        Charlie

                                        Keep smiling - it's never as bad as you think!!

                                        Comment

                                        • Newforest
                                          Rank 5 Registered User
                                          • Apr 2005
                                          • 8879

                                          And we all know where they are don't we!

                                          http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...edName=topNews

                                          http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andaman_Islands
                                          http://www.flightmemory.com/ I have been round the world 11.83 times!

                                          Comment

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