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  • TomcatViP
    Rank 5 Registered User
    • Nov 2011
    • 6107

    239 ppl died when MH370 plunged into sea (at max). It is dubious than none of them knew how a plane operates in general (hobby, professionally related, TV series, book etc...). Then Flap lever are easily identifiable on a Boeing aircraft.
    Note that I don't expect this hypothesis. I just mentioned that possibility.

    The absence of soot and polymers retraction rather clearly identifies a flash fire* as was noted earlier. But you are right, we must step cautiously.

    *if any... (late edit)
    Last edited by TomcatViP; 23rd September 2016, 01:30.

    Comment

    • 27vet
      Rank 5 Registered User
      • Nov 2009
      • 2698

      There just isn't enough debris to draw any conclusions yet, except that it looks like the plane did break up. I'm looking at this midair collision in which there was limited structural damage, the plane continued flying on autopilot indicating that the crew may have passed out from depressurization. Perhaps the E&E compartment door of MH370 blew off damaging the transponder equipment, and the crew were lax resulting in their incapacitation, but it doesn't explain why MH370 turned off course. And why no debris was spotted in satellite pictures well that many volunteers reviewed thousands of satellite pictures taken shortly afterwards. Also, the damage to the various parts is not consistent.
      sigpicHindsight is what you see from the tailgunner's position...

      Comment

      • TomcatViP
        Rank 5 Registered User
        • Nov 2011
        • 6107

        Excellent potential scenario. But Germanwings crash fits more the equation (no turn and straight-in dive regulated by Mach limiter - here the 125 seems to have run out of fuel).*

        However, the fuselage breach could have induce similar effects.
        My own idea was the battery runway gases inducing gradual incapacitation with legs last body part affected (I provided a source). It seemed to me that a pilot would attempt a rudder turn (AP has a wing level mode) before passing away.

        Notice that some spotted the rear emergency door in some photo but no confirmation came denying de facto this hypo (pic might be on this thread).

        In any way, as written at the time, we have to understand that there is a strong possibility that some passengers did survive the initial event and, logically, as horrid as it is to figure, the last ones probably dying in the final crash.


        *Germanwings flight did cross an UCAV fly testing zone and DID have its alt set wrongly on the transponder by 200ft
        Last edited by TomcatViP; 17th September 2016, 23:58.

        Comment

        • Bmused55
          Aaahh Emu!
          • Oct 2003
          • 11136

          I doubt this was a decompression event. The aircraft turned left and then circled over the Captain's neighbourhood then turned in a few directions before eventually heading south. There is no waypoint new the neighbourhood, so there was nowhere to set the plane to fly to or for the plane to reach and "hold" over. Also, the plane would not just decide on its own to leave the hold fly a few turns, then head south. To many experts and myself, this indicates someone was at the controls.

          Same can be said for incapacitation via a battery runaway.

          Why is it, that ever since the first 787 event, everyone seems to think all Boeings are prone to such an event? The scenario is always brought up as a possible explanation when something happens to a Boeing. The 777 uses different technology and is not as reliant on batteries as the 787 for emergency flight control. Thats what the RAT is for. Even so, a battery runaway does not fit with the plane making controlled flight manoeuvres as observed on military radar.


          I think we're all trying too hard to shift the blame from the more likely culprit: One or both of the pilots.

          I am the first to defend pilots in any circumstance until investigations show exactly what happened. I did so in this case to.
          However, as more information on the aircraft's movements post loss of contact emerged and were verified, I had to admit this looks very much like a pilot event.
          Lets face it, this is not the first time a pilot has taken the controls and done something to the aircraft because they wanted to end it all. The now infamous Germanwings flight was not the first either. It also wasn't long ago a pilot hijacked his own plane and landed.
          Bmused55

          Keep thy airspeed up, less the earth come from below and smite thee.

          My Blog
          My Designs

          Comment

          • TomcatViP
            Rank 5 Registered User
            • Nov 2011
            • 6107

            ATSB last report cast doubt on fire theory


            The ATSB said in its report on the two pieces recovered near Sainte Luce on the south-east coast of Madagascar, that a dark grey colouration on most of both sides of the items were due to "an applied resin and was not the result of exposure to heat or fire".

            The larger piece had three small marks "resulting from localised heating", but there was "no evidence of overall gross heat damage".

            "The origin and age of these marks was not apparent," the ATSB added


            There were three small marks on one fragment that smelt burnt - but the heat damage appeared to be recent and a result of "localised heating", the ATSB added.
            It was considered that burning odors would generally dissipate after an extended period of environmental exposure, including salt water immersion, as expected for items originating from the missing plane, the statement said.


            "At this stage it is not possible to determine whether the debris is from MH370 or indeed even a Boeing 777.
            The liquid like burnt mark is then assessed as the result of a resin (inner filler or glue) darkened with time and exposure.



            Source:
            ABC.net.au
            The BBC.com
            CBS News.com
            Last edited by TomcatViP; 23rd September 2016, 01:58.

            Comment

            • TomcatViP
              Rank 5 Registered User
              • Nov 2011
              • 6107

              List of identified debris updated


              Five items, found from late 2015 to early 2016, are categorised as having almost certainly originated from the lost aircraft: a right-wing flap track fairing; a piece of a right horizontal stabilizer panel; an engine nose cowl; the door R1 stowage closet; and a cabin interior panel.
              [...]
              Items under evaluation include a right hand engine fan cowling, a wing trailing edge panel, and a seat back panel from an aircrafts in-flight entertainment system.
              [...]

              the list excludes two pieces of debris recently found on a beach in Madagascar by private searcher Blaine Gibson. In early October [...].
              The two glassfibre honeycomb pieces of debris do not bear any identifying marks that would confirm they come from a Boeing 777-200ER, says the ATSB.
              Source:
              FlightGlobal.com
              Last edited by TomcatViP; 23rd October 2016, 06:08.

              Comment

              • TomcatViP
                Rank 5 Registered User
                • Nov 2011
                • 6107

                ATSB last report (download link)

                Comment

                • TomcatViP
                  Rank 5 Registered User
                  • Nov 2011
                  • 6107

                  personal belongings could have been recovered in Madagascar

                  Comment

                  • TomcatViP
                    Rank 5 Registered User
                    • Nov 2011
                    • 6107

                    Experts define additional MH370 search area

                    Initially, satellite data suggested the aircraft was in ‘constant true track’ or ‘lateral navigation’ (LNAV). These modes would have favoured the southern end of the search area, but since these areas have been searched without finding the aircraft, other control modes indicating that the aircraft is in the northern portion of the search zone are now favoured.

                    “During the first principles review meeting, flight crew with extensive experience on the aircraft type indicated that the aircraft is usually flown in the LNAV or CMH (constant magnetic heading) lateral control modes. This information, combined with the results from the areas already searched, increase the likelihood in the northern section of the probability map.”

                    In addition, drift analysis of aircraft debris that washed up on the western edge of the Indian ocean also points to a more northern search area. Overlaying this with satellite communications data helped determine the possible new search area.
                    Source:
                    FlightGlobal.com

                    Comment

                    • TomcatViP
                      Rank 5 Registered User
                      • Nov 2011
                      • 6107

                      No suspicions of crew, passengers, says French probe

                      The investigators and three examining magistrates met with relatives of the four on Thursday to brief them on progress.

                      The relatives were told that background checks on passengers and crew by France's domestic intelligence agency, the DGSI, "turned up negative," according to sources close to the inquiry.
                      Source:
                      The Agence France Presse.com

                      Comment

                      • 27vet
                        Rank 5 Registered User
                        • Nov 2009
                        • 2698

                        Thanks for the updates!
                        sigpicHindsight is what you see from the tailgunner's position...

                        Comment

                        • TomcatViP
                          Rank 5 Registered User
                          • Nov 2011
                          • 6107

                          @27Vet: u'r wc

                          [...]China must step up in search for MH370

                          The cost of the search is unclear but analysts believe it is about $190 million. Malaysia has paid $100 million, Australia $70 million and China $20 million.
                          China’s contribution has been pitiful given MH370 was a code-share with China Southern Airlines and carried the airline’s flight number CZ748. There were 153 Chinese on board. China needs to contribute more.
                          The hollow rhetoric of Malaysian Transport Minister Liow Tong Lai saying it is an “aspirational goal” to find MH370 simply is not good enough.
                          Even Australian Transport Minister Darren Chester’s excuse that the new area of 25,000sqkm was not specific enough to meet the criteria set down by officials from the three governments is lame.
                          In the vastness of the Indian Ocean, an area of 25,000sqkm is very specific and the analysis that has helped pinpoint the new area has broken new ground.
                          It's true that China has been constantly behind its obligations. We did mention this fact here early.

                          Every bit of information gleaned and detailed pieces of evidences found have constantly comforted the reflection around what could have happened, converging always around an hypothesis that only needed slight adjustments and even finding its way through new regulations. Beyond the mourning of families, it is important to close this chapter with hard evidences in order to ensure that this reflection will not be lost in an ocean of doubts [/IRONY] or a sea of rhetoric, leading to zero improvements and yet to be expected another similar disaster. This is all about a technical inquiry and the ATSB has proved itself exemplary.

                          In the vastness of the Indian Ocean, an area of 25,000sqkm is very specific and the analysis that has helped pinpoint the new area has broken new ground.[...]
                          Now that we have new facts, including a drift study by the CSIRO [...], the search must go on.
                          ------------------
                          Also (last week):
                          On Friday, Dutch-owned vessel Equator reportedly raced to an area in the southern Indian Ocean recently identified as being a more likely location for the plane's debris. It pushed further north on Saturday before tracking back slightly.
                          [...] "After its run north, Equator has now tracked back south-west at high speed to a point at 35.3 degrees south where it seems that the [autonomous underwater vehicle] is deployed again."
                          Sources:
                          The West.com.au
                          The Week.co.UK
                          Last edited by TomcatViP; 15th January 2017, 05:17.

                          Comment

                          • D1566
                            Needs retiring.
                            • Apr 2006
                            • 2119

                            http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-38647365
                            Martin

                            Comment

                            • TomcatViP
                              Rank 5 Registered User
                              • Nov 2011
                              • 6107

                              Oceanographic analysis offers potential crash site of MH370

                              The analysis showed that it would take six months to one year for the drifters to reach western Australia and one-and-a half to two years to reach eastern Africa. Interestingly, two drifters traveled from the search region to the area of Reunion Island during the period between the crash of flight MH370 and when the airplane flaperon was found.

                              Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2017-01-oceano...mh370.html#jCp
                              368 undrogued surface drifter were used that map the entire probability zone.

                              Click image for larger version

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                              a subset of 97 drifters from that group (red trajectories) that eventually reached the purple box, which surrounds Reunion Island.
                              Launch location of those drifter can define a corresponding crash probability zone that match the other results
                              2 ended up of La Runion's shores.

                              Two of them (thick black trajectories in Figure 1) reached the purple box in July and November of 2014. Remarkably, one of them (thick red trajectory in Figure 1) reached the purple box in July 2015, the same month that debris from flight MH370 washed ashore on Reunion Island.
                              airplane debris [were] found on Reunion Island, backtracking the positions of the 375 surface drifters that travelled within the purple box during the last 25 years may also help identify the possible initial location of the debris.
                              In other words, it is hardly believable that so few debrit ended-up in the hands of the Fr authority without implementing the astounishing local policy to harshly pay non state-worker to burn everything they found on the beach at night, something, as said much earlier, that stands out of any Fr law or usage. I will remind you that the comedy around the evacuation of Journalists and media at the time arguing that the nearby volcano will soon erupts adds to the lack of understanding (I posted at the time the volcano activity, eruption policy that are very codified and don't generally englobe the zone were the debrits were found and does not imply overflight like it was bluntly said in front of the media.

                              It is clear enough today that, If China and Malaysia does not restart the search, MH370 could slowly end-up being... a French embarrassment.


                              You can browse up to found all the arguments that were put at the time.






                              Source:
                              University of Miami via phys.org

                              Report
                              Last edited by TomcatViP; 24th February 2017, 05:13.

                              Comment

                              • TomcatViP
                                Rank 5 Registered User
                                • Nov 2011
                                • 6107

                                Possible Flap track fairing (with barnacles) washed ashore on the east cost of South Africa


                                "This morning, a local person found some items that washed up on a beach on the Transkei coast near East London that looked like they could be from an aircraft. They sent the cell phone pics taken of these parts to one of our local aviators and the pics have been sent to our local [air traffic control] who will circulate them and notify the relevant authorities," Onions wrote.

                                Source:
                                The Christian Post
                                http://www.avcom.co.za/
                                Last edited by TomcatViP; 4th February 2017, 06:58.

                                Comment

                                • TomcatViP
                                  Rank 5 Registered User
                                  • Nov 2011
                                  • 6107

                                  Third anniversary of the tragedy today

                                  Jeanette Maguire, sister of passenger Catherine Lawton (NZ), said the relatives appreciated that the Australian government had invited them to such a memorial service.

                                  “The government didn’t have to do that and it was very special that they wanted to do something to ensure our families didn’t feel forgotten,” Maguire said.
                                  Link

                                  On keypub forum, that day:
                                  Click image for larger version

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                                  And what has been found today (source CNN):
                                  Click image for larger version

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                                  Last edited by TomcatViP; 11th March 2017, 06:09.

                                  Comment

                                  • AirportsEd
                                    Rank 5 Registered User
                                    • Jul 2007
                                    • 460

                                    I see the pilot's union, BALPA, has renewed its call for better aircraft tracking...
                                    http://www.airportsinternational.com...tracking/18609

                                    Comment

                                    • TomcatViP
                                      Rank 5 Registered User
                                      • Nov 2011
                                      • 6107

                                      Also, an incident related to Lithium Batteries: embedded headphone battery exploded in flight
                                      .
                                      Notice how a small battery indisposed a large part of the cabin passengers with smokes and fumes.
                                      MH370 cargo bay was filled with 2t of electronic products including Li-ion batteries as we have detailed it earlier.

                                      Source:
                                      USA Today.com
                                      Last edited by TomcatViP; 15th March 2017, 21:17.

                                      Comment

                                      • TomcatViP
                                        Rank 5 Registered User
                                        • Nov 2011
                                        • 6107

                                        Malaysia considers 'several' proposals to renew MH370 hunt

                                        Newly-published satellite images – captured 15 days after the disappearance – might indicate the possibility of aircraft debris, and oceanic drift modelling has pointed to a potential alternative impact zone.
                                        Malaysian Department of Civil Aviation chief Azharuddin Abdul Rahman says the new information will be included in its examination of proposals to resume the search.
                                        "We remain to be guided as to how this [information] can be used to assist us in identifying the specific location of the aircraft," he adds.
                                        Source:
                                        FlightGlobal.com

                                        Comment

                                        • TomcatViP
                                          Rank 5 Registered User
                                          • Nov 2011
                                          • 6107

                                          Another battery runway story. That time it's an A380

                                          The aircraft – transporting 510 occupants – had been cruising in Canadian airspace, some 260nm north-east of Montreal, when the crew was alerted to "heavy" electrical smoke and fire beneath seat 10C, says Transportation Safety Board of Canada.

                                          Its incident bulleting on the 2 August incident states that a passenger power bank – a battery-powered portable device for providing electrical supply – was the source, and was "stuck in the seat mechanism".
                                          Source:
                                          FlightGlobal.com

                                          Comment

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