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Missing Malaysian Airlines B777

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  • TomcatViP
    Rank 5 Registered User
    • Nov 2011
    • 6049

    If the fuselage integrity have been breached by a fire lasting several hours, the plane might have sunk pretty fast.

    The wings are paneled with composite -> glass like type of cracking at extreme load (crash) -> wing pieces are not insulated and are drowning pretty fast

    A big hollowed airliner fuselage tend not to be really floatable also following a crash at sea.

    Hence we should not be surprised if we detect nearly no big parts of the plane

    What Boeing should do is to identify the parts of the wings that will float (fuel tanks for example), makes a 3D radar image of that and pipe it up into a SAR imagery data base for the Posedon and alikes. It might be the only way to discriminate floating objects quickly enough.
    Last edited by TomcatViP; 1st April 2014, 20:13.

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    • Snoopy7422
      Rank 5 Registered User
      • Oct 2011
      • 840

      Originally posted by charliehunt View Post
      The search was only moved to the southern ocean because of satellite pictures of debris. Since a complete blank has been drawn all bets might be on again. Perhaps that's what the statement was alluding to.
      No, - nothing whatever to do with any debris or sat' photos. Search area moved based on Inmarsat evidence, since refined somewhat. Since the a/c went off the primary RADAR, the Inmarsat data is the only morsel of evidence. Inmarsat are, apparently, quite confident the a/c ceased to transmit somewhere on the 'Southern arc'.

      Comment

      • Cking
        Rank 5 Registered User
        • Oct 2004
        • 1000

        Originally posted by TomcatViP View Post
        If the fuselage integrity have been breached by a fire lasting several hours,.
        I doubt that, aluminium alloy weakens very quickly with heat. A weakened pressure hull would rupture pretty quickly when pressurized.

        Originally posted by TomcatViP View Post
        The wings are paneled with composite -> glass like type of cracking at extreme load (crash) -> wing pieces are not insulated and are drowning pretty fast,.
        The leading edges and trailing edges are made of composite and should rip off during a crash.

        Originally posted by TomcatViP View Post
        A big hollowed airliner fuselage tend not to be really floatable also following a crash at sea,.
        .

        Ha! To quote Bob Newhart (The Grace L Ferguson Airline and storm door company) (Youtube)
        "Some float for two to three minutes, others go down like a stone!"

        Originally posted by TomcatViP View Post
        Hence we should not be surprised if we detect nearly no big parts of the plane.
        But we SHOULD be seeing loads of seat cushions, life jackets and other buoyant stuff'

        Originally posted by TomcatViP View Post
        What Boeing should do is to identify the parts of the wings that will float (fuel tanks for example), makes a 3D radar image of that and pipe it up into a SAR imagery data base for the Posedon and alikes. It might be the only way to discriminate floating objects quickly enough.
        The fuel tanks, no matter how empty, will not float.

        I do not subscribe to any of the outlandish conspiracy theory's but the lack of debris, even after this length of time is....er......concerning?!!

        Rgds Cking

        Comment

        • Bmused55
          Aaahh Emu!
          • Oct 2003
          • 11136

          I agree Cking, it is very concerning. I also agree that what we know of this incident just does not fit a fire on board theory. It would be somewhere around where it was last heard from, give or take 100 or so nautical miles.

          Someone on A.net postulated that the lack of wreckage could indicate a successful ditching, where the aircraft did not break up to any large extent and then sank intact. Rafts could have been launched, but after nigh on 3 weeks at sea, they could easily have been damaged and sunk. All it takes if for one passenger per slide not to heed the warning to leave their high heels behind. Or even just a sharp bit of flotsam... there is plenty of it in the Indian Ocean!

          Either that, or they are looking in the completely wrong area.
          It's definitely not where it was last "seen" on radar by ATC. The sea is shallow there, 20 to 40 meters at best. A crash 777 would be fairly visible.

          So... Where is it? It is entirely possible the plane changed course after the last Inmarsat "ping" and thus all the search efforts could be hundreds of miles off.

          We might never find it. I think the prospect of a plane as large as a 777 remaining missing will be intolerable. The search might continue for months or even years.

          My bet is, if it is ever found, it will be blind luck. A trawler snagging pieces perhaps. A submarine bumbling across the wreck on the sea bed.

          This is the 21st century Stardust!
          Bmused55

          Keep thy airspeed up, less the earth come from below and smite thee.

          My Blog
          My Designs

          Comment

          • 19kilo10
            Rank 5 Registered User
            • Sep 2010
            • 770

            Thak God CNN put this out!!!!!!!! http://twitchy.com/2014/03/31/breaki...s-fuel-to-fly/

            Comment

            • TomcatViP
              Rank 5 Registered User
              • Nov 2011
              • 6049

              Originally posted by Cking View Post
              I doubt that, aluminium alloy weakens very quickly with heat. A weakened pressure hull would rupture pretty quickly when pressurized.

              Wrong wording from me of course.

              Originally posted by Cking View Post

              The leading edges and trailing edges are made of composite and should rip off during a crash.
              Entirely right. Wing skin is in 7055 (alu alloy). Composites amount to "only" 12%.

              My mistake

              Originally posted by Cking View Post

              But we SHOULD be seeing loads of seat cushions, life jackets and other buoyant stuff'

              If Plane was lightened during flight to increase range (see hijack scenario some pages before)? See the morbid calculation I made some page ago with 18t of "ballast" in the cabin section + the cargo bay.

              Originally posted by Cking View Post
              I do not subscribe to any of the outlandish conspiracy theory's but the lack of debris, even after this length of time is....er......concerning?!!

              Rgds Cking
              Still to early to say that. Search have been re-routed so many time that most of the pattern searched today are relatively new.
              Last edited by TomcatViP; 2nd April 2014, 22:10.

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              • Matt-100
                Rank 5 Registered User
                • Jul 2012
                • 568

                I believe the search is too focused on specific areas. I check the BBC article daily for updates, and the search is always in the same area of ocean southwest of Perth based on predicted route calculations.

                The search has completely neglected the areas where hundreds of items were picked up on French, Thai and American satellites. I think they should broaden the search back to the south again, regardless of how tricky the southern oceans can be.

                But I've just read HMS Tireless (Royal Navy submarine) has arrived on scene to track the black box ping.
                Last edited by Matt-100; 1st April 2014, 23:19.
                Feel free to check out my aviation pictures at http://www.flickr.com/photos/lhr_spotter/ - comments welcome

                Comment

                • John Green
                  Rank 5 Registered User
                  • Mar 2011
                  • 6643

                  Endless speculation about on board fires, hi-jacks, debris popping up and down, construction of the a/c etc. etc. Nothing at all about the only possible practical means of finding a clue or two as to what happened to this aircraft via an examination of the cell phone records of the phone service providers.

                  I'd bet my last quid that almost everyone on board had with them a working cell phone. Out of 240 odd passengers at least some would have developed a suspicion that all was not right with the flight. My understanding is that cell phone calls can be made via satellite on a/c that are enabled for that purpose.

                  So, who are the cell phone service providers? Have they been approached for an examination of their records? The answers contained within these two questions may provide the beginning of some understanding of the likely fate of this airliner.

                  Comment

                  • Bmused55
                    Aaahh Emu!
                    • Oct 2003
                    • 11136

                    It was a night flight. Most of the passengers were probably asleep 40 minutes into the flight (which is when it went missing).
                    Those who may have been awake probably did not notice anything wrong. The radar tracks no not show any violent movements. Just standard rate turns. At that time they were far from land and thus far from any mobile signal. And going from what we know, the plane was likely even further out to sea by the time anyone on board would have noticed the flight was taking longer than expected.

                    There is no mobile network signal at sea. You only need to go about 5 miles out and connection is very spotty. We're talking hundreds of miles here, if not thousands. No signal means no calls. No calls means no records. Looking at the cell phone records will show us absolutely nothing.

                    If this was an overland flight that went missing and over a well developed area with superb mobile network coverage. Then perhaps that would be a worthwhile avenue.

                    However, if any calls had been placed or messages sent, the authorities would doubtlessly have heard about it within hours of the plane being reported missing via anxious relatives.
                    Last edited by Bmused55; 2nd April 2014, 11:03.
                    Bmused55

                    Keep thy airspeed up, less the earth come from below and smite thee.

                    My Blog
                    My Designs

                    Comment

                    • ~Alan~
                      Rank 5 Registered User
                      • Mar 2010
                      • 5019

                      Originally posted by John Green View Post
                      My understanding is that cell phone calls can be made via satellite on a/c that are enabled for that purpose.
                      Not something I am familiar with, but I doubt that facility is automatically available ? Satellite calls on the Iridium network are very expensive.
                      So I imagine you would have to use one of the phones supplied by the airline, unless yours can be linked into the satellite system.
                      Engine Failure:.... A condition which occurs when all fuel tanks mysteriously become filled with air.

                      Comment

                      • John Green
                        Rank 5 Registered User
                        • Mar 2011
                        • 6643

                        Re 390

                        Your explanation is probably correct. I note that you don't mention satellite coverage ? Have the phone service providers been asked to check their records? As you say, they'll provide 'absolutely nothing' but, they might provide something. Unless the checks are made, we won't know for sure.

                        Over the North Sea, thirty miles out and at 5,000 feet on an ordinary terrestrial cell phone I've had a signal and made contact. I know that is nothing like the distances involved in this matter.

                        My inference is that it is entirely possible that at least one passenger and just maybe others, had some inkling, some suspicion, that all was not as it should be. That led them to try to make contact. By a freak of nature - stranger things have been known to happen - a line of sight radio communication signal was transmitted and received, words were exchanged and it hasn't yet come to light.

                        In none of the offical utterances or communiques that I've heard has any reference been made to any examination of cell phone transmissions - even to say, there were none.

                        In any matter as important as this where suspicion and innuendo will surface, it is very necessary for official sources to discount as firmly as possible.

                        Comment

                        • Alpha Bravo
                          Rank 5 Registered User
                          • Mar 2012
                          • 620

                          I've said this before and I'll say it again, it's astonishing that we haven't heard anything from Boeing, at least publicly. Ever since the data from Inmarsat was made public, indicating the aircraft flew for a significant time and the search shifting towards the southern Indian ocean, I'm sure the Malaysians would have consulted with Boeing on the likelihood of some form of incident that could have incapacitated both pilots and left the aircraft flyable for so long. The Egyptair cockpit fire would have been raised and discussed, along with anything else that could have occurred in the cockpit area, such as the location of the O2 stores, etc. Although I understand it's not correct for the Malaysians or Boeing to speculate, at least they could disclose some of their thoughts and discussions that have already taken place on the likelihood of anything going wrong in the cockpit and/or pilots, but still rendering the aircraft flyable for so long.

                          Comment

                          • nJayM
                            Rank 5 Registered User
                            • Jun 2008
                            • 1687

                            Boeing does not have to enter into speculation in public, but as everyone on his forum knows would have confidentially ensured MA had/have and continue to have Boeing's recommended after sales support and maintenance documentation/training.

                            Given that (already posted on this thread) there are individuals attempting to take MA and Boeing on in lawsuits it would be unlikely that Boeing can go public on such a MYSTERY.
                            Last edited by nJayM; 2nd April 2014, 12:55. Reason: Typo
                            Jay

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                            • charliehunt
                              Nearly there!
                              • Oct 2012
                              • 11459

                              I would say that until there are some facts and I mean concrete facts available it would be highly inadvisable for Boeing or indeed any other interested party to join in the fever of speculation.
                              Charlie

                              Keep smiling - it's never as bad as you think!!

                              Comment

                              • Alpha Bravo
                                Rank 5 Registered User
                                • Mar 2012
                                • 620

                                I would never expect Boeing to speculate on what could have happened, and as I said previously, that would in no way be correct for Boeing to do so. But what they can do, because they are in the best position to judge, is to say whether any of the current ideas being put forward could be feasible in any way; for example, the notion of a cockpit fire, similar to the Egyptair incidence, but one in which renders the aircraft flyable for a considerable time. Only they are qualified to say whether such an occurrence is fairly likely, highly unlikely or a complete impossibility.

                                Comment

                                • charliehunt
                                  Nearly there!
                                  • Oct 2012
                                  • 11459

                                  I take your point but I think they nether would nor should comment on speculation.
                                  Charlie

                                  Keep smiling - it's never as bad as you think!!

                                  Comment

                                  • J Boyle
                                    With malice towards none
                                    • Oct 2004
                                    • 9754

                                    I'm sure Boeing and its people have done exactly what Alpha Bravo suggests. I 'm sure they've discussed it with various governments, government agencies and customers.
                                    And no, they won't make it public...nor should they.

                                    And I'm sure 777 crews have also discussed it. Over on PPrune a 777 captain (or some one who claimed to be) reported on an experiment he did in a simulator to see how an unattended aircraft would react in terms of gradually lessening fuel supply.
                                    Fascinating stuff if accurate.
                                    There are two sides to every story. The truth is usually somewhere between the two.

                                    Comment

                                    • TomcatViP
                                      Rank 5 Registered User
                                      • Nov 2011
                                      • 6049

                                      Any Direct link?
                                      Last edited by Deano; 5th April 2014, 22:18. Reason: COC RULE 14

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                                      • 880squadron
                                        Rank 5 Registered User
                                        • Nov 2010
                                        • 63

                                        On the mobile phone contact theme, what would happen if a passenger became suspicious, sent a text, there was no signal over the sea, the text did not go, the plane then flew back over Malaysia, the phone was still turned on but the passenger was incapacitated due to hypoxia?

                                        Would the text get transmitted when the signal was restored, or would it need the passenger to send the resend button, which they couldn't because they were incapacitated?

                                        Just worth knowing in case, God forbid, the same thing happens over the sea/ocean. Maybe send a text saying what happened, and put the phone carefully in a floaty cushion to become a message in a bottle.

                                        I have no doubt that no messages were received from any of the passengers, which does seem to point to hypoxia and everyone falling asleep. I cannot think the plane was working normally when it flew back over Malaysia with all the passengers wondering why the map was not working, with not one of them trying to make phone contact.

                                        I managed to get some very adult TV programs (by mistake when scanning through) on a 3" battery TV in the mid 1990's over Germany at 30,000+ ft, so a signal must be possible up there.

                                        Comment

                                        • Cking
                                          Rank 5 Registered User
                                          • Oct 2004
                                          • 1000

                                          Originally posted by 880squadron View Post
                                          On the mobile phone contact theme, what would happen if a passenger became suspicious, sent a text, there was no signal over the sea, the text did not go, the plane then flew back over Malaysia, the phone was still turned on but the passenger was incapacitated due to hypoxia?

                                          Would the text get transmitted when the signal was restored, or would it need the passenger to send the resend button, which they couldn't because they were incapacitated?

                                          Just worth knowing in case, God forbid, the same thing happens over the sea/ocean. Maybe send a text saying what happened, and put the phone carefully in a floaty cushion to become a message in a bottle.

                                          I have no doubt that no messages were received from any of the passengers, which does seem to point to hypoxia and everyone falling asleep. I cannot think the plane was working normally when it flew back over Malaysia with all the passengers wondering why the map was not working, with not one of them trying to make phone contact.
                                          After three weeks I'm sure the relevant telephone company's have looked at their records.

                                          Originally posted by 880squadron View Post
                                          I managed to get some very adult TV programs (by mistake when scanning through) on a 3" battery TV in the mid 1990's over Germany at 30,000+ ft, so a signal must be possible up there.
                                          I made that mistake, twice this morning and once this afternoon!

                                          Rgds Cking

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