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By: - 24th June 2012 at 19:05 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Tommy,
You raise some interesting issues here. The only thing that is predictable about the future is its unpredictability, and I wonder how many people 10 years ago would have predicted that Easyjet would be so dominant (in numbers of flights) at airports like Gatwick, that British Midland would be no more, that Ryanair would have expanded at such a huge rate and that Air UK would have succumed at Stansted.
So having said that it is impossible to guess, here are my thoughts:-
Thomson & Thomas Cook - Thomas Cook's problems are well documented, but however you look at it, the package holiday market isn't what it was, and I can't see how it can ever return. Yes, the low cost airlines have moved into the charter airlines market, but an at best stagnant economy, increasing fuel prices and continuing envionmental concerns make it difficult to see how these airlines can both prosper. I wonder if Thomas Cook will eventually get taken over by Tui and merged into Thomson.
Monarch - this is a really interesting one. Clearly they don't see themselves as a charter airline anymore, and are trying to reinvent themselves as low cost operation focussing on Southern Euopean markets. We wait to see how sucessful this will be, lacking the economies of scale of many of their competitors, and the market awareness that they enjoy as well, it could be a difficult few years for them, but hopefully they will come through. I don't, however, see them doing long haul flights in the future.
Jet 2 - I really like Jet2, and think that their CEO, Philip Meeson, is really underrated in view of what he did with Channel Express and then turning it around to beome Jet2. The problem they have though, is I can't really see where they can expand now before they start to find they are treading on the toes of other airlines. If they do so, I doubt they will last long - however, if they consolidate their position where they are, they may just survive, although I reckon a merger is more likely.
Ryanair - I think Ryanair are at a very critical place in their development. As the external costs of air transport increase (notably fuel and tax) their cost advantage is decreased. In such a situation, will passengers choose to fly with a better airline (since that airline would only be slightly more expensive) or will Ryanair seek to increase their offer? Choosing the wrong solution could be fatal, but Ryanair is very well run, and if any airline is going to make the right decision, it will be them. One thinhg I don't see them doing is getting widebodied equipment for transatlantic flights - I don't believe their is a market for a 'Ryanair Atlantic' - if you look at the cheapest fares that airlines like BA offer, it is difficult to see how anyone could undercut them and make an sort of positive return.
Easyjet - I really like Easyjet, and their recent attempts to focus more on business travellers will pay dividends, so I expect a good ten years for Easyjet.
British Airways - It would be a brave person to bet against BA. They will always have the intrinsic advantage of Heathrow, and a worldwide network that will attract the top paying frwuent flyers. Yes, Heathrow has capacity issues, but all this means is that they will be able to increase their yields further by targetting only the most lucrative destinations. It would be nice to see them get some 747-8s, but the A380 order has rather lessened the chances of that.
Virgin - I fear very much for Virgin. The only solution is a take over by BA, and I have a fear this could be a BMI style 'rescue'. Virgin are in the unfortunate position of being too big to be viewed as a niche carrier, yet too small to compete effectively against BA and some of the other mega carriers, so it is difficult to see how they can survive independently of BA.
You missed off two interesting airlines:-
Flybe - I reckon they have an interesting future. They have the domestic and near Europe market from the regions sewn pretty much up, and their growing network of services for other airlines will allow them the opportunity of diversification at much lower risk than doing it themselves.
Eastern - Eastern is very well run, and it is a clever business model to operate small aircraft on high yield routes that the larger airlines can't serve. How sustainable is it into the future, though?
What is really interesting, though, is where are the new airlines coming from, and what are they going to be doing? There are some niches that airlines like Blue Islands / Manx 2 / Loganair and, at the larger end, Titan, are filling, but are any left?
IE
By: - 25th June 2012 at 13:48 Permalink - Edited 1st January 1970 at 01:00
Ryanair will not be buying anymore 737 after the present commitment
Ryanair Atlantic was palnned a few years back as an expensive buisiness class full service alternate but has been shelved until the economy improves.
They are looking to the Chinese for their next fleet.
Virgin will not have A.340's but they will have A.330's and possibly A.350 BA will still be using 777's some of which are still to be delivered.
Truth is I wouldn't like to say who will be arround in what form this time next year let alone ten years
Not forgetting of course Stellios is forming a rival for easyJet
Posts: 1,280
By: tommyinyork - 24th June 2012 at 17:33
What do people think they will operate and which airlines will go or merge.
1) Thomson i can imagine will still be Thomson and will operate 737-800's, 737-MAX's and 787's.
2) Thomas Cook will of gone bust or been rebranded, but if they still exist they will operate A321 Neo's and A330's.
3) Monarch will be operating A320's, A321's, A330's and A350's.
4) Jet2 will be operating 737-800's, 737-900's and a few 757's.
5) Ryanair will have a full 737-MAX fleet and a seperate airline that does transatlantic flights using A330's.
6) Easyjet will have a full Airbus A320 Neo fleet.
7) BA will operate 787's, A380's, A350's and A320 NEO's and ERJ195's.
8) Virgin will operate A340's, A380's and 787's.