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Thread: Rafales for Brasil #3, Cachorro-quente!

  1. #901
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    a formal declaration that he chooses rafale means nothing when the next pres comes in and calls for a re-evaluation
    so in other words you agree it wont be an unrevocable signed order by this president
    what a run around

    also have you looked at the gripen aesa specs that you think is substandard to the rafale aesa
    i think you will be in for a shock
    Last edited by jackjack; 17th July 2010 at 19:42.

  2. #902
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    Quote Originally Posted by c-seven View Post
    Because those coutries are to put in the "poodle" list and Dassault did not have time nor money to spend to help those countries to pull the price of the US kits down - and rightly so when we see the outcome.
    One more comment -- it remains a fact that before F-35 was firmly established as a program, there was significant interest in the RoNAF for -- the Typhoon (the Gripen NG did not exist as a concept at that time). The Typhoon was seen to have considerable potential compared to e.g. F-16 block 60 (F-15 was considered too expensive I think).

    When the F-35 arrived on stage, the RoNAF lost interest in the eurocanards, but not before....

    EDIT: Going completely OT here, but: Norway is not as much poodle as you probably think. For instance we refused to join the US in the Iraq war in spite of very strong pressure from the US. You also need to realize that one lesson Norway learnt from WW2 was that a small country like Norway cannot afford to build a defence to deter large countries; this triggered Norway to join NATO and a close military alliance with the US.
    Last edited by Loke; 19th July 2010 at 12:23.

  3. #903
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    Quote Originally Posted by jackjack View Post
    also have you looked at the gripen aesa specs that you think is substandard to the rafale aesa
    i think you will be in for a shock
    Please, stop your little troll game.

    Nobody here is saying that the gripen aesa is substandard.
    What has been said is that its development is at an earlier stage than the rafale aesa which first production units will be delivered next month by Thales.

  4. #904
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    have you read arthuro's posts ?
    if having aesa on the canards first was the claim, there wouldnt be any disputes on it
    perhaps you can correct him when you see errors in his claims
    Last edited by jackjack; 18th July 2010 at 22:02.

  5. #905
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    Hi guys,

    Back here after a 25 day trip to Africa!

    There are some things that we must address here.

    Jobim is clearly set into purchasing the Rafales whatever the cost (both political and economical). Despite Jobim's claims in May, apparently these planes have indeed being doing something else than moving ahead in the last 60 days. Who knows, maybe they were indeed "playing football". Please note that Jobim belongs to one of the many regional factions of PMDB Brazil's largest political party, not to Lula's PT party.

    This being said one can justly infer that just because this is Jobim's pick does not necessarily imply it would naturally be Lula's choice as well.

    In order to be properly understood the Rafale deal HAS be seen and judged against the similarly priced and timed France-Brazil submarine deal.

    Although VERY EXPENSIVE in absolute dollar values the submarine deal crossed Congress (during one of its mosturbulent times in recent years!) in JUST TWO DAYS! There was no opposition party backoffice maneuvers against it and absolutely no restrictions to it voiced whatsoever!

    On the other hand the Rafale purchase has been running circles, unable even to exit the Ministry of Defence building. As I see it and as I was told by some insiders Jobim is having a very hard time to complete his recomendation memmorandum on this subject. Every time he has to go to Congress to explain this deal to the Senators and Representatives the several groups interested in a non-Rafale decision go to the press to show that the Minister's own reasonings fail to properly address the issues reasonably. From what I heard he has had to write his recommendation memorandum three times already.

    The National Defense Council is just a consultative body composed of a handful of related ministers and the presidents of the two houises of Congress besides, natuiraly of the three Commanders of the military forces. This Council would never block a decision that has already been taken by their boss the President. If thios Council has not been summoned by now it is because Lula, and no one elese, is just not ready top announce this decision.

    So if Lula realy WANTED to sign this deal it would be signed by now and would never be pushed into the turbulent political waters of his last year in power... The fact that it mede it to here means clearly a lack of interest on Lula's behalf to see it concluded, there is just no other plausible option.

    One other issue haunting Jobim is the changing late in the game of the weights assigned to each evaluation item on the RFP. The National Defense Strategy (END) predates the restart of the F-X2 program. The documents sent to tha bidders clearly stated what were the key deciding factors neded to win this bid and ALSO stated how much each of these items would be weighted. To me it is clear that the Ministry of Defence should have been informed of these weights BEFORE They were sent to the bidders. In that way if Jobim felt these weighs for some reason conflicted with the previously published END he shoud have them fixed THEN!

    On the contrary, when the FAB issued weighs showed the Rafale would lose the bid Jobim had to change these weighs as a last ditch measure to try to save the french deal. He changed the weighs post facto, after the bidders had already sent in two updated proposals in their best and final conditions. A weight change now, at this late stage, is clearly a measure to benefit one player over the other two. On the issued RFPs all the decision steps for the purchase were clearly spelt out to the participants and there there was no mention of the possibility of changing the ponderation weighs after the delivery of the proposals...

    Even if Jobim has his way this one-sided decision is a wonderful, a perfect case for the loosing companies to sue the Brazilian Government over an unfair and twisted bidding process. Does Lula want this to surface against him at the end of his term in office? I have my doubts!

    I ask all of you now to try to put your foot on the other side's shoe to see how does this change in rules feel?

    All my French friends: I understand your passion for the Rafale product and program. It's selection by the FAB would have clearly many crucial and long-lasting implications for the long term benefit of the French fighter industry and of its work force, and lest not forget the highly defensible issue of your country's national pride...

    BUT: what if the Rafale in some other international bid was winning on all accounts only to be swept aside by the whims of a single person, government organization or political group? Would you not be very upset?

    Wish me no harm, please!

    Regards,

    Hammer

    These are the reasons
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  6. #906
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hammer View Post
    BUT: what if the Rafale in some other international bid was winning on all accounts only to be swept aside by the whims of a single person, government organization or political group? Would you not be very upset?
    This is exactly what happend to the rafale in Korea and Singapore.

    There are 2 big differences though.

    France can't pressure Brazil as the US did on Korea and singapore.... so France is waiting for Brazil decision.
    Brazil made it clear since the begining that the final choice will be political. And if i remember correctly, the political preference of the brazilian government was clearly stated as being the rafale 10 months ago.

    It's not Jobim fault if Saab is still hoping for a miracle.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kovy View Post
    This is exactly what happend to the rafale in Korea and Singapore.
    No. In Korea, F-15 was the political choice from the start. The competition was a fake. Its purpose was only to get better terms for buying F-15. Although Rafale was judged best on the technical evaluation, it would only have been seriously considered if the Americans had refused to make a better offer for F-15 - but they did improve their offer. S. Korea was originally offered lower-specification F-15s at a higher price than it finally got.

    The competition being fake was more or less admitted by S. Korea, after the contract. Why do you think nobody except Boeing would even bid for the second batch, despite Korean efforts to solicit proposals? They all knew it was a waste of time & money to prepare an offer.

    In Singapore, it was very different. Rafale was never winning. Different criteria. Note that the Americans had to try much, much harder to win. Singapore got a higher-specification F-15 than S. Korea, at about the same price. Singapore is nobody's poodle.

    You're right that Brazil is different, though. The USA is at a political disadvantage, with any attempt to exert pressure likely to harm its prospects, rather than help them, & I think the technical reasons for Rafale not being favoured by Singapore no longer apply. Also, there are industrial criteria in the Brazilian selection, which favour the non-US bidders. There were no such criteria in the Singapore bid.
    Juris praecepta sunt haec: honeste vivere, alterum non laedere, suum cuique tribuere.
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    Quote Originally Posted by swerve View Post
    No. In Korea, F-15 was the political choice from the start. The competition was a fake. Its purpose was only to get better terms for buying F-15.
    The trouble is that they officialy state at the beginning that the competition would be only technical.
    That's why Dassault refuse now to bid in countries which has deep link with USA or US armies (such like Japan).

  9. #909
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    Just to remind you that there have been a large number of "leaks", pointing in many different directions:

    http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/...program-04179/

    March 19-25/10: O Estado de Sao Paolo reports that the Brazilian air force certified all 3 fighter jet finalists as meeting Brazil’s technical specifications, and says that relevant reports have been delivered to the defense ministry. Brazil’s defense ministry said it would release final details during the week of April 5/10.
    IF this is correct then it does not matter that Rafale scores higher on technical parameters than Gripen since both would meet the specifications. And if they both meet the specs then normally one does not look at the technical specs anymore but on other parameters to choose the winner (e.g. costs, ToT, industrial offsets, and "politics".)

    I did find it interesting however that Mr. Pepe (who normally tends to highlight all the negatives about Gripen NG) actually stated in his "report" that the Gripen consortium had a better ToT package than Rafale...! Very interesting since many leaks have claimed the opposite.

    As I have said before: There are many leaks, and often quite inconsistent.

    Let's wait and see, perhaps more will become clear within the next weeks (or months!?)

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    As I said before, FX-2 is the story of changing program "owners" , desired parameters and purchasing priorities...

    In such a scenario conflicting "leaks" to the press make all the sense as a way of preempting the rivial side's next political moves.

    Two parallel news items have sprouted in the news showing that French "dominance" in future Brazilian military purchases may be now waning:

    1) the announced no-bid direct purchase of 5 Oceanic Patrol Vessels, one logistics/tanker ship and now six FREMM frigates from the Italians for the Brazilian Navy (against direct competition from the French DCNS the other FREMM partner)

    and

    2) the absolute failure of the Sarkozy government to offer any kind (even modest) of public political support the Brazilian and Turkish governments negociation to try to avert new Iranian sanctions by the UN Security Council.

    I believe these two items point to a definite "cooling" of Brazilian interest in France as a sole geostrategic/military industrial partner. Soon to be announced are Tor Anti-Air Missiles to further dilute the French slice of our military reequipment money.

    Finally, the Swedes have also formally comited in their last FX-2 proposal to the purchasing 10 KC-390 (pending parliamentary approval, naturally) as the French did publicly some months ago as an offset deal to the Gripen NG selection by the FAB.

    Every new delay in the FX-2 is in reality a stab against Dassault's prominent position, it's head start if you will, in this convoluted FX-2 race.

    What is fact is that Jobim has lately virtually dropped from the media lights into a much more discreet position. Different from some months ago where he was being interviewed many times a week his declarations are spreading farther and farther apart. Why can this be? Because possibly he knows that there is no strong interest by Lula to close this deal along the lines he personally favours.

    Let's wait some more...

    Best Regards,

    Felipe
    Last edited by Hammer; 19th July 2010 at 12:35. Reason: made text more readable! ;)
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  11. #911
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    Quote Originally Posted by glitter View Post
    The trouble is that they officialy state at the beginning that the competition would be only technical.
    They lied.

    Quote Originally Posted by glitter View Post
    That's why Dassault refuse now to bid in countries which has deep link with USA or US armies (such like Japan).
    I remember it being reported that Dassault asked Japan for assurances that the winner of any evaluation would be selected, & didn't get a reply.
    Juris praecepta sunt haec: honeste vivere, alterum non laedere, suum cuique tribuere.
    Justinian

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hammer View Post
    Soon to be announced are Tor Anti-Air Missiles to further dilute the French slice of our military reequipment money.
    Going more OT here, but; did they consider the Crotale system at all? Crotale seems very capable to me, SK has bought it and that to me seems to indicate that it's pretty good.

    Of course the best system (from a purely objective and unbiased point of view) is the NASAMS II

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    Quote Originally Posted by Loke View Post
    Going more OT here, but; did they consider the Crotale system at all? Crotale seems very capable to me, SK has bought it and that to me seems to indicate that it's pretty good.

    Of course the best system (from a purely objective and unbiased point of view) is the NASAMS II
    No, from what I know the evaluation was strictly between the Tor and the Chinese version of the Aspide - the LY-60 (in an unheard of before) Army attempt to consolidade post-sales support for this line with the Brazilian Navy Aspide SAMs of the modernized Niteroi class frigates. From what I understood the Crotale was consiodered to be "out of production" to be considered here.

    Regards,

    Hammer
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  14. #914
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    On the Pepe Rezende issue we now know now deeply the Brazilian internet Defense Forums are being monitored (and used) by the Brazilian Military Forces. For this reason many new developments are being fed to the most prominent forum members in order to be "floated around" and to be discreetly fed to the general press. Good info and biased reports are both being delivered via the Internet in order to push public support one way or another. Pepe is certainly one of these very prominent internet forum members being targeted by the politicians, air force, navy and the F-X2 participants.

    Pepe started the F-X2 program openly supporting the Su-35+PAK/FA combo, he switched to the Saab Gripen C/D (against the NG which he deems "too risky") and now believes that between the current three contenders the Rafale is the best option. That is his take on things and I can only respect him for it.

    I'll invite him here so he can explain his points of view

    Regards,

    Hammer
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    I don't think Rafale will "cut it" as a VLO fighter in spite of SPECTRA; thus I think they need to supplement the winner of F-X2 in the medium term with a true VLO fighter. Therefore I think Gripen would make the most sense; it is cheaper, has excellent ToT and business offsets and may enable Brazil to enter a partnership with other countries to develop a 5. gen A/C to supplement the Gripen in a Hi/Lo mix.

    This idea is actually somewhat similar to what Pepe seemed to initially support... but with more Brazilian involvement in particular on the development of the VLO fighter...

  16. #916
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hammer View Post
    On the Pepe Rezende issue we now know now deeply the Brazilian internet Defense Forums are being monitored (and used) by the Brazilian Military Forces. For this reason many new developments are being fed to the most prominent forum members in order to be "floated around" and to be discreetly fed to the general press. Good info and biased reports are both being delivered via the Internet in order to push public support one way or another. Pepe is certainly one of these very prominent internet forum members being targeted by the politicians, air force, navy and the F-X2 participants.

    Pepe started the F-X2 program openly supporting the Su-35+PAK/FA combo, he switched to the Saab Gripen C/D (against the NG which he deems "too risky") and now believes that between the current three contenders the Rafale is the best option. That is his take on things and I can only respect him for it.

    I'll invite him here so he can explain his points of view

    Regards,

    Hammer
    Hi Hammer,

    It's interesting how public support rapidly shifted from the Rafale's side to the Gripen's, at least when it comes to the Poder Aereo blog: comments are overwhelmingly pro-Gripen nowadays since people tend to consider that the Rafales are more likely to become hangar queens because of higher operational costs.

    What's your opinion about reports saying that the operational cost gap between the two fighters will be as large as $4000 vs $14000? Does it seem realistic to you? If not, do you think this has a connection with Eliane Cantanhede (who reported the so-called leaks of the FX-2 competition) and Alexandre Galante having been invited by Saab in Sweden and treated like VIPs? Could the Brazilian Military Forces have played any role in it (by leaking exaggerated figures to make a shift in public support) ?

    Don't get me wrong, I'm convinced the Gripen (even in its C/D form) would be sufficient for Brazilian needs, but the figures just don't sound right.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hammer View Post
    So if Lula realy WANTED to sign this deal it would be signed by now and would never be pushed into the turbulent political waters of his last year in power... The fact that it mede it to here means clearly a lack of interest on Lula's behalf to see it concluded, there is just no other plausible option.
    This is one of the main issues as I see it,what do Lula really want? When he publically voiced his preference for the Rafale it was after a meeting with Sarkozy who had promised unlimited technology transfer and a significant price cut. Lula was very proud of having achieved such good conditions from his french friend. Soon it became clear that these promises, especially regarding the price,was quite exaggerated and had little to do with the reality.

    If I were Lula I had been quite dissapointed for being embarassed in such a way from supposedly a friend. Since then he looks as he is being playing quite a cruel payback game,delaying the decision one month at the time and bringing new conditions into the fray. It looks more and more like playing cat and mouse or taunting a dog with its favourite toy. The question is if he will be satisfied with that and use his influence to give Sarkozy the Rafale deal he so desire or slam the door in his face.

    What Jobim says I don't consider much,he is a talker that likes the sound of his own voice.
    "The wise man thinks of what he says.
    The fool says what he thinks"

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    Quote Originally Posted by Erakis View Post
    Hi Hammer,

    It's interesting how public support rapidly shifted from the Rafale's side to the Gripen's, at least when it comes to the Poder Aereo blog: comments are overwhelmingly pro-Gripen nowadays since people tend to consider that the Rafales are more likely to become hangar queens because of higher operational costs.

    What's your opinion about reports saying that the operational cost gap between the two fighters will be as large as $4000 vs $14000? Does it seem realistic to you? If not, do you think this has a connection with Eliane Cantanhede (who reported the so-called leaks of the FX-2 competition) and Alexandre Galante having been invited by Saab in Sweden and treated like VIPs? Could the Brazilian Military Forces have played any role in it (by leaking exaggerated figures to make a shift in public support) ?

    Don't get me wrong, I'm convinced the Gripen (even in its C/D form) would be sufficient for Brazilian needs, but the figures just don't sound right.

    Hi Erakis,

    First of all I'm fully aware that there is no "per flight hour" standad cost for any fighter. These costs varry widely due to a great number of variables, such as size of the countries fleet, percentage of replacement parts manufactured by the local industry and variatios in the national currency fluctuations against major world currencies. These cost per hour figures are a closely guarded secret in any air force because they clearly convey the availability of the current fighter fleet vis a vis the actual number of hours flown per year. Having said that, I'm confident that a single engined fighter naturally ought to have a lower cost per flight hour than a twin engined one. On the other hand the Rafales M F1's first generation engine were deemed so unreliable that the number of inspections mandated on them grew tremendously as to generate a mosnttrous maintenance over cost. The latest Russian planes (Su-35 and MiG29Ms) had very low expected engine and structural lives but once these were tested to their limits they proved to be much sturdier than anyone expected. So if one copunted the recomended maintenance costs and compared it to the potencial revised maintenance costs this alone should produce much much better operational cost numbers for them.

    The cost of spare parts also naturaly affects these end results, the US standard built GE F414 engine being produced in numbers MUCH superior than the SNECMA M-88s ought to give a powerful edge to the Gripen NG over the Rafale.

    On the other side, how desperate are the individual airframe and engine manufacturers for a quick profit out of this sale. Do they believe that the FAB will scoop up the full 120+ aircraft expected for F-X, or do they think the whole program terminates at the initial 36 aircraft indicated in the RFP? As I said innitialy, the number of intervening variables in this case at least is immense.

    So can the Rafale cost as so many more per flight hours than the Gripen? yes it can, who cam be sure of the actual numbers? Only the FAB F-X2 team know the real end figures here. The fact is that the purchase price for the Rafale is some 50% higher than the Gripen NG this obviously multiplies the end cost with financing and related new model implementation costs. Saab has claimed publicly that over its lifespan the Gripen NG would cost about the half of what every Rafale would cost to the FAB. Thats their claim, can we believe in it?

    I really don't see the national media (general or specific defence press) being biased towards any of the contestantes (maybe with the dirhonorable exception of IstoÉ magazine) I, like Mr Galante more recently myself have been taken to Linkopping by the Swedes to see the SAAB plant and the NG aircraft and have never got from them anything more than precise info for my articles on this subject. On the other hand after a very active presence in Brazil Boeing has repeatedly been scaling back their presence, on the other hand Dassault has been absolutely silent in the last six months to a year, probally concerned that any minor 'faux pas' on their side might eventualy cause them to lose this deal.

    I hope I was able to answer your question properly.

    Regards,

    Hammer

    P.S.: I have also sent our correspondent to Marignane for a thorough interview with Dassault on the Rafale program and I also tried to visit the Boeing plant but they did not manage to schedule it at the right time... We always strive to present a clear and balanced point of view to our readers.
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  19. #919
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rogerout View Post
    ...
    "I managed to fool 19 million Frenchmen, why couldn't I fool a few Brazilians?" :diablo:
    Last edited by Erakis; 19th July 2010 at 15:21.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hammer View Post
    So can the Rafale cost as so many more per flight hours than the Gripen? yes it can, who cam be sure of the actual numbers? Only the FAB F-X2 team know the real end figures here.
    When an aircraft is at prototype stage, what does "real" mean when it comes to operational costs? Is $4000/h the operational cost for the prototype, in which case the production version will likely be even lower? I'm sorry, but this doesn't sound "real" for me. It's necessarily estimates from either Saab or the FAB. For the Rafale, there are official reports from the Congress (rather free from any corporate spin) ; this is closer to "reality" for me. Weren't apples compared with something closer to an orange than an apple?

  21. #921
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    Quote Originally Posted by Erakis View Post
    When an aircraft is at prototype stage, what does "real" mean when it comes to operational costs? Is $4000/h the operational cost for the prototype, in which case the production version will likely be even lower? I'm sorry, but this doesn't sound "real" for me. It's necessarily estimates from either Saab or the FAB. For the Rafale, there are official reports from the Congress (rather free from any corporate spin) ; this is closer to "reality" for me. Weren't apples compared with something closer to an orange than an apple?
    Gripen NG is not a completely new aircraft, it's more like a major MLU of a mature, existing 4.0 gen a/c. The differences between the C/D and NG are quite well known. It should be possible to estimate from the C/D costs what it would be for the Gripen NG.

    Also by using existing components like the F414 (which has been produced in more than 1000 units and demonstrated high robustness and low operating costs, even in a harsh marine environment) the number of unknowns are kept down.

    Edit: I would like to add that, also for the Rafale, the FAB can just arrive at some estimates of the operating costs. The FAB will not operate the Rafale as the French do, and their costs may be higher or lower depending on a number of different factors.

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    Quote Originally Posted by obligatory View Post
    Actually CPFH includes everything, but SwAF uses conscripts,
    where other forces uses technicians/paid labour, hence the differences $3000 -$5000
    This is not to be forgotten when taking Gripens low cost per flight hour from Swedish airfoce into consideration.

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    It's interesting how public support rapidly shifted from the Rafale's side to the Gripen's, at least when it comes to the Poder Aereo blog: comments are overwhelmingly pro-Gripen nowadays since people tend to consider that the Rafales are more likely to become hangar queens because of higher operational costs.
    A few comments in a single blog are absolutely not representative of something . Especially in a blog well-known for its strong support for the Gripen. A poll would be more interesting . Poder aereo made several poll and iirc the Rafale got each time more votes than the Gripen despite successive rephrasing not favoring the Rafale (it was funny )

    But that's not the more important. In Brazil , if you want to mesure a so called "public support" , you must visit many blogs, forums and websites specialized in defence issues and not only the one which could flatter your own opinion.

    About the main forums:

    - Defesa Brasil is the most important forum (4000+ members) , most active members there are very pro Rafale as you can read there in the main FX-2 topic:
    http://defesabrasil.com/forum/viewto...52&start=31410
    - Base Militar (3000+ members), on the contrary, is much more pro-Gripen or F18 (or even anti-Rafale)
    http://www.alide.com.br/wforum/index.php

    About the main Blogs:

    Choice of the subjects ... phrases underlined ... editors comments, its generally easy to feel their preference:

    - Defesa brasil is rather pro-french and pro-Rafale like its forum.
    http://defesabrasil.com/site/index.php
    - Plano Brasil is pro-Rafale (arguing they want the best plane for the FAB).
    http://pbrasil.wordpress.com/
    - Poder Aereo is definitively pro-Gripen and is opposed to the Rafale deal.
    http://www.aereo.jor.br/
    - Cavok is slightly pro-Gripen.
    http://cavok.com.br/blog/
    - Base Militar is, i would say mmm, pro US...
    http://www.basemilitar.com.br/
    - Defesa@net is interesting because from my point of view , its the only blog which changed its editorial policy , rather pro-Rafale last year i noted they become more neutral since they were invited in Sweden
    http://www.defesanet.com.br/index.htm

    Others are more neutral...


    About the medias:


    In Brazil , its simple : conservative medias opposed to Lula (like Fohla) vote Gripen (or F18) and liberal medias (like Istoe) that support the government support the Rafale. Others are rather neutrals.

    Ultimately, in the case of Brazil, there is no doubts a passionnate communauty interested in defense isssues . But its a very small one at the scale of the country.

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    defensabrazil has a join to view, out of curiosity i looked at the member list, 3000 have never posted, there's 3001 now
    like the indian forums, there are international fanboys waving the flag for their choice
    everything cant be taken at face value
    Last edited by jackjack; 19th July 2010 at 18:23.

  25. #925
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Posts
    201
    oups i made a mistake
    Base Militar has only 1726 members (with 597 with one post or more) and not 3000+
    (DefesaBrasil has 4246 members with 1224 with one post or more )

    International fanboys are more interested by Base Militar because it's more easy to use an automatic translator there if you don't understand portuguese

  26. #926
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Posts
    201

    Talking

    Quote Originally Posted by Hammer View Post
    Hi Erakis,
    [...]I really don't see the national media (general or specific defence press) being biased towards any of the contestantes (maybe with the dirhonorable exception of IstoÉ magazine)
    I, like Mr Galante more recently myself have been taken to Linkopping by the Swedes to see the SAAB plant and the NG aircraft and have never got from them anything more than precise info for my articles on this subject. On the other hand after a very active presence in Brazil Boeing has repeatedly been scaling back their presence, on the other hand Dassault has been absolutely silent in the last six months to a year, probally concerned that any minor 'faux pas' on their side might eventualy cause them to lose this deal.
    Remember me Eliane Cantanhede a famous unbiased journalist :
    PS - Viajei a Estocolmo a convite do Ministério das Relações Exteriores da Suécia e da embaixada do país em Brasília.
    And yet i guess Fohla must be much more richer than BaseMilitar or Defesa@net ... lol

  27. #927
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Brasilia - Brazil
    Posts
    49
    Quote Originally Posted by Loke View Post
    I am actually rather sceptical about Mr. Pepe -- I have seen several statements from him that I find rather strange. Some examples: He claimed (indirectly) that Gripen failed in the Indian Leh test (by saying that only two fighter succeeded and both were twin engined);
    First of all, now I work at the Brazilian Congress, exactly at Senate's Foreign Affairs and National Defence Committee, and I have a lot of inside info about Brazilian affairs. At that time, Gripen C/D hadn't arrived at India and all pro-Gripen forums said that it was amongst the better performance planes... Only four twin engined planes flew from Leh at that time.

    To be truthful, the Indian Air Force Commander visited Brazil a few days ago and a lot of new info about Leh affair leaked. The first point is that IAF is still discussing Gripen participation. The RFI and RFP established that all tests must be conducted with the real bidders. The tests at Leh were conducted with Gripen C/D and Demo and both of them are not representative of NG. The Raven radar still is not completely operational.

    According Indian officers, two planes failed: MiG35 and F/A-18E/F. Gripen Demo takes off with the required load (only two tanks, four air-to-air missiles and a cargo of 1900kg bombs). Typhoon and Rafale takes off with full cargo but EADS bidder failed at some attack missions

    Quote Originally Posted by Loke View Post
    He has said that in one exercise (can't remember which, red flag?) Gripen had 40% availability, whereas Sweden air force claimed close to 100%.
    The Gripen availability at Red Flag info was from Forca Aerea Brasileira (the FAB), the Brazilian Air Force. The first one to comment it was Mr. Juarez Castro, an ex-FAB maintenance officer. Gripen C/D offered a lower availability than our F-5EM Tiger II (we got around 70% availability). Since 1984 I covered military affairs for Brazilian newspapers an Janes Defence Weekly and I never saw an air force admits it failed.

    Quote Originally Posted by Loke View Post
    He also claimed that Saab promised SA to integrate R-Darter for free but later on failed to do so; I asked about this on a South African forum, you are free to read the responses and draw your own conclusions:

    http://saairforce.co.za/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2527

    In particular "knightone" seem very well informed on that forum.
    The info was from SAAB and was available at F-X1.5 FAB bid.

    Quote Originally Posted by Loke View Post
    I would not give 1 cent for Mr. Pepes analytical skills either; He used the fact that Norway did not select Gripen NG as an argument that Brazil should not select Gripen NG!! As most of you will realize, there is very little commonality between Norway and Brazil to defend such an argument. The funny thing is also that if we accept to play his little game I would argue that the Norwegian conclusion actually could be interpreted as being in favor of the Gripen NG and not Rafale or SH -- after all they did not even make it to the evaluation stage, whereas Gripen NG as the only 4.5 gen fighter did.
    Norwegian Air Force considered SAAB bid a complete methodological mess. What I said is that they have a lot more of modern combat experience than FAB and that experience must count.

    Quote Originally Posted by Loke View Post
    He made several other claims that seemed rather dubious to me, if someone is interested they can go to e.g. the forum on alide.com.br (where our own Hammer is one of the moderators) and read some of his claims. There is a long thread on Gripen in the FX2 competition, in part I and II. If I recall correctly I think he said back in 2008 that he expected NG to have a shorter range than the C/D since it will be heavier and with a higher-thrust engine... What a true expert!
    My points were fully correct. What I said is that the operational range would be around 20% higher than C/D. According RNoAF papers, that leaked SAAB numbers, they are correct. The only point that Gripen Demo excel is ferry range and no one combat in ferry conditions.

    Quote Originally Posted by Loke View Post
    As for NG being a "powerpoint"; the NG Demo flew to India and successfully completed all the tests. The development program is on schedule with 175 flights completed.
    The Demo is not fully representative of NG final configuration. I accessed all Brazilian Air Force F-X2 papers investigating a denounce against Defence Ministry. I can not put here everything I read cause a wrote a feature to JDW about it, but even COPAC's officers, that were sympathetic to SAAB bidder, admitted that the structural commonality between NG and the Demo will be less than 40%...

    Quote Originally Posted by Loke View Post
    Seems to me that someone is getting nervous, and I think I can see why...
    Seems to me that someone is trying to distort my quotes, typical of some Brazilian forums fan boys that made statements based only in Internet info…

    Cheers

    Pepe

  28. #928
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Brasilia - Brazil
    Posts
    49
    Quote Originally Posted by Hammer View Post
    On the Pepe Rezende issue we now know now deeply the Brazilian internet Defense Forums are being monitored (and used) by the Brazilian Military Forces. For this reason many new developments are being fed to the most prominent forum members in order to be "floated around" and to be discreetly fed to the general press. Good info and biased reports are both being delivered via the Internet in order to push public support one way or another. Pepe is certainly one of these very prominent internet forum members being targeted by the politicians, air force, navy and the F-X2 participants.
    What is happening is that strong lobbies are using forums to infiltrate false info. The lobbies also used some big newspapers political reporters with no Defence affairs experience to manipulate public opinion. In January, the pro-Gripen group leaked the preliminary Brazilian Air Force report to Folha de S. Paulo. The official Air Force paper, approved by FAB High Command, putted F/A-18E/F Super Hornet as the winner. The paper was in Mr. Jobim hands in December 2009, one month before Ms. Cantanhende feature...

    Quote Originally Posted by Hammer View Post
    Pepe started the F-X2 program openly supporting the Su-35+PAK/FA combo, he switched to the Saab Gripen C/D (against the NG which he deems "too risky") and now believes that between the current three contenders the Rafale is the best option. That is his take on things and I can only respect him for it.

    I'll invite him here so he can explain his points of view
    To be truthful, I never switched opinions. I still defend the Russian proposal as the best one cause it will give us a 5th generation fighter at a near future. Sukhoi proposed us a participation at the PAK-FA program and a Su35BM line at Brazil but COPAC's found the proposal too risky and made a stupid option for a very limited 4th generation fighter that still didn't fly.

    Our Air Force is in a very delicate moment. Twelve of our F-5EM have structural problems and our Air Force intends to use them until 2020. Sorry, speaking frankly, COPAC choices for a plane that didn't fly is stupid! Speaking to SAAB representatives I made this point. We need a real plane, not a paper one.

    By the way, I saw the bids and SAAB didn't offer to buy KC-390. What they put at the paper is the possibility, in a near future (when), to open a bid for new cargo planes. At the same time, Sweden began to refurbish its C-130B to use them until 2020. Sorry, this can not be serious.

    Dassault offer key technologies (I can not describe them here) for both: F-X2 and KC-390.

    Cheers my good friend and thanks to call me.

    Pepe
    Last edited by Pepe Rezende; 19th July 2010 at 22:15.

  29. #929
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    West of Paris, France
    Posts
    153
    Quote Originally Posted by Loke View Post
    Gripen NG is not a completely new aircraft, it's more like a major MLU of a mature, existing 4.0 gen a/c. The differences between the C/D and NG are quite well known. It should be possible to estimate from the C/D costs what it would be for the Gripen NG.

    Also by using existing components like the F414 (which has been produced in more than 1000 units and demonstrated high robustness and low operating costs, even in a harsh marine environment) the number of unknowns are kept down.

    Edit: I would like to add that, also for the Rafale, the FAB can just arrive at some estimates of the operating costs. The FAB will not operate the Rafale as the French do, and their costs may be higher or lower depending on a number of different factors.
    You make valid points, but I still think comparing operational cost predictions will be more relevant when both aircraft are in production stage.

    On a side note: will the F414G be reworked by Volvo Aero for mass-produced NGs (just like the RM 12)?

  30. #930
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    West of Paris, France
    Posts
    153
    Quote Originally Posted by Danell View Post
    A few comments in a single blog are absolutely not representative of something . Especially in a blog well-known for its strong support for the Gripen. A poll would be more interesting . Poder aereo made several poll and iirc the Rafale got each time more votes than the Gripen despite successive rephrasing not favoring the Rafale (it was funny )
    I acknowledge I might have concentrated a bit too much on Poder Aereo without seeing the big picture. (Thanks for the links, BTW.)

    However, I wouldn't trust polls either since every fanboy in the world can vote for his idol. Those are everything but representative of a local tendency for me.

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