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Thread: F-22 export not likely...........

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    F-22 export not likely...........

    Govt likely to drop plan to procure F-22 planes
    The Yomiuri Shimbun

    The government likely will drop its plan to introduce the U.S.-made F-22 Raptor stealth fighter to replace its aging F-15 fleet, and will instead concentrate on three other potential candidates, government sources said Saturday.

    The moves to abandon efforts to acquire the cutting-edge F-22 follow signs that the incoming U.S. administration of President-elect Barack Obama is leaning toward curbing or even halting production of the aircraft, the sources said.

    According to the sources, the replacement candidates are the Eurofighter Typhoon, jointly developed by North Atlantic Treaty Organization members Britain, Italy, Spain and Germany; the F-35 Lightning II produced by the United States, Britain and other countries; and the F-15FX of the United States.

    The U.S. Congress, anxious over the possible leaking of details of the Raptor's state-of-the-art technology, has placed an embargo on exports of the fighter.

    The Japanese government pressed the U.S. government to allow Japan to purchase F-22s, even putting off its initial plan to introduce a next-generation fighter in fiscal 2009.

    But caught up in a worsening financial crisis, and suffering declining tax revenues, Washington is said to be skeptical about continuing production of the pricey F-22, the procurement costs of which are two to three times those of other fighters.

    In addition, incumbent U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates, known to favor halting production of the F-22, is set to remain in office under an Obama administration.

    A high-ranking official at the Defense Ministry said Saturday he "strongly" felt that F-22 production likely would be halted.

    Some ministry officials are said to favor the F-35, which, like the F-22, is a high-performance fifth-generation fighter with sophisticated bombing capabilities. However, the F-35 has not even been deployed so far by U.S. forces, the sources noted.

    The four European countries that have jointly developed the Eurofighter Typhoon are said to be keen to have Japan purchase them. But Japan would have to obtain an understanding from the United States if it wants to adopt European-made fighters, the sources said.

    One line of thought within the Defense Ministry is to postpone the selection process of a next-generation fighter until the U.S. deployment of F-35s, and in the meantime focus on improving the performance of the F-15s currently in use.

    Others believe the ministry should purchase the F-15FX, an upgraded version of the F-15, as a "bridge" until the F-35 is in service, the sources said.

    (Dec. 28, 2008)
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    I thought I had read recently of US plans to order a further 60 F22 aircraft for the USAF? And I dont believe they cost 2 to 3 times the price of a Typhoon or a F35 or F15 as currently produced. A bit of anti F22 propaganda in my opinion.

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    Quote Originally Posted by d'clacy View Post
    I thought I had read recently of US plans to order a further 60 F22 aircraft for the USAF? And I dont believe they cost 2 to 3 times the price of a Typhoon or a F35 or F15 as currently produced. A bit of anti F22 propaganda in my opinion.


    There is "talk" about the USAF getting another 60 Raptors. Yet, nothing is final at the moment. If, the F-22 was exported it could hold the door open for future F-22 orders. Japan was considered the most likely candidate if the export band was lifted. So, with Japan and Australia out the export chances appear extremely slim..........



    My guess is the USAF will get the 60 extra Raptors. But that will be it and production will be closed forever..........
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    IMHO its a balanced peice, the F-22 is on a knife edge, and is showing all the signs of being in great peril due to the Bush era's bad management, the financial crises is just the icing on the cake, even without it the defence budget was growing too large to be sustained and would have reached the critical point in 2010-2012 period, the the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have hastened the time where harsh decisions have to be made.

    The present administration will have the defence budget planned out for the next couple of years, but the Obama administration have got to make some drastic changes, I don't know how the changeover works but I would imagine the president elect has some input to the direction the last budget Bush makes.

    The F-22 is an exotic beast, and given the choice between it and the f-35 the US would be foolish to cut or delay the F-35 (I know that hasn't stopped them being foolish in the past.)

    There have been some Obama appointments that do not give the F-22 supports much hope.

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    There is "talk" about the USAF getting another 60 Raptors. Yet, nothing is final at the moment. If, the F-22 was exported it could hold the door open for future F-22 orders
    If you are talking about USAF orderr, sorry the exporting wont increase the chances for the USAF to get more 22's...the 22 is restringed to exporting because the USAF would be in a bad position if Japan get 100 raptors and the USAF only 160...exporting it, without FIRST having a decent inventary would be a retarded industrial strategic movement, cant understand why that always is overlooked by the Raptor -seriously dumb name for a plane- fanclub.

    The U.S. Congress, anxious over the possible leaking of details of the Raptor's state-of-the-art technology, has placed an embargo on exports of the fighter.
    Ohh nooo....is alien technology why then dont sell some degraded export versions with out the alien spice?

    Nobody is worried about exporting the f-35, guess why....
    "It won't let me put a weapons system on it, even when I can see it visually through the canopy. annoys the hell out of me."

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    Quote Originally Posted by over G View Post
    If you are talking about USAF orderr, sorry the exporting wont increase the chances for the USAF to get more 22's...the 22 is restringed to exporting because the USAF would be in a bad position if Japan get 100 raptors and the USAF only 160...exporting it, without FIRST having a decent inventary would be a retarded industrial strategic movement, cant understand why that always is overlooked by the Raptor -seriously dumb name for a plane- fanclub.



    Ohh nooo....is alien technology why then dont sell some degraded export versions with out the alien spice?

    Nobody is worried about exporting the f-35, guess why....

    The USAF is likely to get 243 Raptors and extending production would lower the unit cost. Which, would make it easier for the USAF to secure future funding for more............especially at a later date.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scooter View Post
    The USAF is likely to get 243 Raptors and extending production would lower the unit cost. Which, would make it easier for the USAF to secure future funding for more............especially at a later date.
    That number (250) is ridiculously low for exporting, are you not counting the 60 raptors that will been purchased -still uncertain adquisition- BTW?

    If they dont get a sustancial number like +500/600 i dont think the 22 will be exported
    "It won't let me put a weapons system on it, even when I can see it visually through the canopy. annoys the hell out of me."

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    So the F-22 is not going to be exported to Japan. In other news, bear sh its in wood. More news on this story at eleven.

    Wonder what this spells for the ATD-X project? That project could have very well been like the British stealth fifth-gen project; it was a bargaining chip to the US gov and their F-35. Only in this case its for the F-22.

    I've heard of that "F-15FX" before. Anyone else know anything more about it?
    Last edited by LoofahBoy; 29th December 2008 at 09:28.

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    Quote Originally Posted by over G View Post
    That number (250) is ridiculously low for exporting, are you not counting the 60 raptors that will been purchased -still uncertain adquisition- BTW?

    If they dont get a sustancial number like +500/600 i dont think the 22 will be exported
    The US doesn't need 500+ Raptors to export the type. Yet, it would have to find a acceptable customer before production ends for the USAF.......With Japan being the most likely. Hense my thread.........
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    Quote Originally Posted by over G View Post
    That number (250) is ridiculously low for exporting, are you not counting the 60 raptors that will been purchased -still uncertain adquisition- BTW?

    If they dont get a sustancial number like +500/600 i dont think the 22 will be exported
    183+60=243. 500+ is out of the question, nice as it might be.

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    That would be ironic at best when Japan replaces its FJ-15A with F-15FX.
    The F-22 would need quite a substantial work-over for export, I think it wasn't build with export in mind (different to the F-35). Even if the F-22 may be released for export, it is dubious if the ends really meet. Japan will want to have final assembly in Japan, and will have some workshare. Quite unrealistic with the F-22.
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    Ohh nooo....is alien technology why then dont sell some degraded export versions with out the alien spice?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Schorsch View Post
    That would be ironic at best when Japan replaces its FJ-15A with F-15FX.
    The F-22 would need quite a substantial work-over for export, I think it wasn't build with export in mind (different to the F-35). Even if the F-22 may be released for export, it is dubious if the ends really meet. Japan will want to have final assembly in Japan, and will have some workshare. Quite unrealistic with the F-22.
    Whereas it would be realistic with Eurofighter. I think. What about Dassault - would local assembly be acceptable to them?

    Would Japan not want to move onto a more modern frame than the F-15?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Spitfire9 View Post
    Whereas it would be realistic with Eurofighter. I think. What about Dassault - would local assembly be acceptable to them?

    Would Japan not want to move onto a more modern frame than the F-15?
    Advantage for the Eurofighter is the mounting number of export customers, although one might debate how representative these deals are. However, the Eurofighter is essentially designed to be assembled anywhere, due to its workshare. If you make up the final line in Japan or Bavaria is ultimately pretty irrelevant.

    As the Japanese focus primarily on a2a performance, they will be more attracted to the Eurofighter and the Rafale has a harder time playing its advantages (more a2g integration).
    Finally, Japan uses US missile hardware (AMRAAM, Sidewinder), which is to some extent compatible to the Eurofighter.

    The F-15 is a strong contender however, it offers a local assembly, commonality to former aircraft and possibly a good price. But the F-15 was sold as fighterbomber recently, questionable if it can convince in a2a. Remember, the assumed enemy is the Chinese Flanker and J-10, so performance is a huge issue. Somebody who actually wants an F-22 will hardly be satisfied with its predecessor.
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    If Japan wants a stopgap between F15 and F35, then it will require a fighter in a short time frame, and thus I think a Rafale with AESA + 90KN engines would be quite competitive in AtoA against the Eurofighter and available very soon. The advantages of AESA and better combat persistence (range, time on station) can't be discounted for a country with the geography of Japan, and the extra power would level the performance field to a certain extent.

    I don't think the AESA captor or whatever they call it would be available soon enough, as I understand the needs of the japanese are quite urgent. On the other hand a Rafale with 90KN engines and RBE2 AESA is available in a year or so. What would you prefer ? A captor equipped EF or a RBE2 AESA / 90KN engined Rafale for AtoA?

    The point remains about integration of AMRAAM and AIM9X though. But then again meteor could be offered to replace the next generation of AMRAAM that the japanese don't already own, and Mica IR is a formidable self protection weapon. And it's not like the japanese purchased extra AMRAAMS to equip their next fighter anyway.

    It's all a moot point though, as I think the deal is politically totally unfeasible. It will be either an american jet or the EF.

    Nic

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    Do not bring Rafale in again, It is not being considered so far.
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    Quote Originally Posted by seahawk View Post
    Do not bring Rafale in again, It is not being considered so far.
    Does that mean the only air supremacy aircraft in the frame are F-15 and Eurofighter? OK, Scooter will no doubt chip in to say that the F-35 will be a better A2A fighter than both of them together multiplied by x and to the power of y (warning: a little irony used) but is Japan likely to consider the F-35 sufficiently capable as an air defence fighter to warrant consideration?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Schorsch View Post

    The F-15 is a strong contender however, it offers a local assembly, commonality to former aircraft and possibly a good price. But the F-15 was sold as fighterbomber recently, questionable if it can convince in a2a. Remember, the assumed enemy is the Chinese Flanker and J-10, so performance is a huge issue. Somebody who actually wants an F-22 will hardly be satisfied with its predecessor.
    It depends on just how upgraded a version of the F-15 the Japanese buy though. If they're willing to spend the $$$ there are a lot of performance upgrades that could be added.

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    Frankly it's a pretty sad commentary on Japanese defense procurement that they currently field the F-4 up potentially against Flankers and J-10's in the year 2008.
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    Quote Originally Posted by bgnewf View Post
    Frankly it's a pretty sad commentary on Japanese defense procurement that they currently field the F-4 up potentially against Flankers and J-10's in the year 2008.
    Depends on the quality of the weapons and the pilots. We're not talking about Vietnam-era F-4s here. An F-4 with a modern radar, AIM-120, and AIM-9X (or their Japanese equivalents), is nothing to be laughed at.
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    Quote Originally Posted by wrightwing View Post
    It depends on just how upgraded a version of the F-15 the Japanese buy though. If they're willing to spend the $$$ there are a lot of performance upgrades that could be added.
    If the F-15 comes, it needs to come fast and affordable. There is no point in procuring an advanced F-15, that you have to develop first, and which will be trashed immediately afterwards. A dead end development (reminds a bit of this Super Phantom stuff in the late 80ies).

    Then you can take the Eurofighter, A2A capabilities are ready by now. Without paying additional cash you may even profit from upgrades done by the lead nations.

    Quote Originally Posted by seahawk
    Do not bring Rafale in again, It is not being considered so far.
    Excuse him, he does that by reflex.
    But thanks for the info, I couldn't believe Dassault left the competition already.
    Or did they never participate?
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    Quote Originally Posted by sferrin View Post
    Depends on the quality of the weapons and the pilots. We're not talking about Vietnam-era F-4s here. An F-4 with a modern radar, AIM-120, and AIM-9X (or their Japanese equivalents), is nothing to be laughed at.
    While the Japanese F-4E have neither of it, nor do the F-15 (which are basically A versions). Theoretically you can fit an F-105 with AIM-120, AIM-9X and radar, datalink and all the stuff. But don't expect it to be cost effective.
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    Quote Originally Posted by wrightwing View Post
    183+60=243. 500+ is out of the question, nice as it might be.

    The US Defense Dept has ok advance funds for 4 more Rators already. So, would the 60 be on top of that or minus that??? Not that its big deal but I'll 247 vs 243??? As every plane counts........
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    Quote Originally Posted by Schorsch View Post
    If the F-15 comes, it needs to come fast and affordable. There is no point in procuring an advanced F-15, that you have to develop first, and which will be trashed immediately afterwards. A dead end development (reminds a bit of this Super Phantom stuff in the late 80ies).

    Then you can take the Eurofighter, A2A capabilities are ready by now. Without paying additional cash you may even profit from upgrades done by the lead nations.


    Excuse him, he does that by reflex.
    But thanks for the info, I couldn't believe Dassault left the competition already.
    Or did they never participate?

    If, the Raptor is indeed off the table? I consider it very likely that Japan will just wait for the F-35...........IMO
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    Quote Originally Posted by Schorsch View Post
    While the Japanese F-4E have neither of it, nor do the F-15 (which are basically A versions). Theoretically you can fit an F-105 with AIM-120, AIM-9X and radar, datalink and all the stuff. But don't expect it to be cost effective.
    Never said it would be cost effective. Just assumed Japan hadn't let their F-4s rot. I was thinking maybe they were up to the standard of Turkey's Phantoms ("Terminators")
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    Quote Originally Posted by sferrin View Post
    Never said it would be cost effective. Just assumed Japan hadn't let their F-4s rot. I was thinking maybe they were up to the standard of Turkey's Phantoms ("Terminators")


    Didn't the Japanese give there F-4's an extensive upgrade? With a version of the APG-66 I think? I believe it was called the F-4J Kai..........
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    If they want a 5th generation fighter, they have no other choice then to go for the F-35. Maybe Japan even buys LRIP airframes, to get them soon enough.
    The Japanese Phantoms aren't that old. I think the youngest airframes were build as late as the early 90's. I guess they could afford to wait for the JSF.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sferrin View Post
    Depends on the quality of the weapons and the pilots. We're not talking about Vietnam-era F-4s here. An F-4 with a modern radar, AIM-120, and AIM-9X (or their Japanese equivalents), is nothing to be laughed at.
    Nope.. The best Japanese EJ-Kai Phantoms are able to launch are AIM-7E/F Sparrow, AIM-9L/P Sidewinder and Mitsubishi ASM-1 AShM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Scooter View Post
    Didn't the Japanese give there F-4's an extensive upgrade? With a version of the APG-66 I think? I believe it was called the F-4J Kai..........
    Yes, the programme started in 1984 and incorporated AN/APG-66J radar, AN/APZ-79 IFF system, Litton LN-39 inertial navigation unit, J/APR-6 RWR, new central computer and a new HUD by Kaiser. Provisions for AN/ALQ-131 jammer and Mitsubishi ASM-1 were added and the old drop tanks were replaced by more durable 610-gallon fuel tanks from F-15s. Plans for slatted wings were dropped due to high cost.

    38 F-4EJs were upgraded to Kai standard. Later, another 17 EJs were modified to armed recce standard (AN/APQ-172 radar, Thomson-CSF Raphael SLAR and domestic ELINT pods).

    This upgrade might have been sufficient for early nineties, today these Phantoms are obsolete, as well..

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    Quote Originally Posted by Aurel View Post
    If they want a 5th generation fighter, they have no other choice then to go for the F-35. Maybe Japan even buys LRIP airframes, to get them soon enough.
    The Japanese Phantoms aren't that old. I think the youngest airframes were build as late as the early 90's. I guess they could afford to wait for the JSF.
    Hi,

    The last Phantom built is F-4EJ 17-8440. The "1" in there stands for a Fiscal Year 1981 purchase. Only 4 airframes are from that final FY.
    The FY's with the big batches of F-4EJ's were 1973, 1974, 1975, 1976 and 1977.
    Most F-4EJ's are thus now over 30 years old. I do believe they were very well looked after.
    Right now, I would not be surprised if they stayed in service for another 6-10 years.

    Best regards, Transall.

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