China's News, Pics and Speculation Part 9

[Hyperwarp]

A guy named "x" posted this at CMF

[Hyperwarp]

J-11, MKK

[Deino]

A guy named "x" posted this at CMF

Can anyone identify the tail number ???? ... Looks like 10642 ... ???

Thanks for posting !!!

Truely amazing that these new pictures just appear so soon after all these rumours ans speculations during the last days !

[fazer01]

A guy named "x" posted this at CMF

Check out the J 10 in the background...The whole canopy is missing and so is the ejection seat...the driving rail of the seat is out meaning that it has been used (not for maintenance).Moreover,the planes are wrapped in nets to cover up things..

[sealordlawrence]

You reguarly see J-10's and other chinese aircraft for that matter, all rapped up, the reason appears to be two-fold. Firstly to protect the aircraft from the elements and secondly to hide unit numbers. Of course it would be better to put the aircraft in a hanger but this wouldnt allow people to photograph them and post the images on the internet (the chinese authoritys use a very clever system of 'leaks' to disseminate information to the public).

The aircraft in the background is very interesting, but had the ejection taken place whilst the aircraft was in flight one would not expect to see the aircraft at all-it would have crashed. For that reason I believe that one of two things happened, either the ejection seat was fired accidently or it was being ground tested.

There is a rumour floating around the Internet that this is the 100th J-10 but I cannot confirm this, we will just have to wait and see. What is certain is that the J-10 programme is well under way and production appears to be high rate.

[sealordlawrence]

Just been looking at the numbers of AL-31FNs ordered/delivered. The only thing which seems certain is that some 54 were delivered in the 2001/2002 period. There were reports that some 250 were ordered in mid 2004 ( http://www.gateway2russia.com/st/art_260291.php ), whilst other sources say that about 100 were ordered in August 2005. I cant be certain about either of these. But it would seem to be likely that there are enough AL-31FNs in china for this aircraft to be the 100th example.

[edisonone]

.


Canopies/ejection seats:

Check out the J 10 in the background...
The whole canopy is missing and so is the ejection seat...the driving
rail of the seat is out meaning that it has been used (not for maintenance). Moreover,
the planes are wrapped in nets to cover up things..

My my!!! Just as it is with CSI Vegas , the very tiniest and the most
minute of atomic particals... it gets picked on and it gets scrutinized doesn't it? Or,
if there isn't any evidence left at the crime scene, we create one don't we ?

The again, did you guys also know what the actual character (Catherine
Willows), which is being portrayed by the sexy Marg Helgenberger in CSI says about the show
when she was interviewed by Larry King ??? She said: Don't kid yourselves because life isn't as cool
or as simple as you would like it to be or as depicted in the TV screen!




Back to life and all its realities:

Another source for that J-10 just in case some of those
"CD/CMfers WARLORDS" start screaming their lungs out about people
(who innocently of course) infringed on their masterpieces:

http://military.china.com/zh_cn/bbs/.../13104872.html

To the warlords: If it's such a big deal, why post your pics in the net?




(Ignor following if it does not apply to you)

The fine prints of copyrights:

For all those who unknowingly but nonetheless "unlawfully" attaches
the logo "copyright" to their works: Do you guys know how much it cost for you
to get a copyright, a design, of even a simple thing such as a trademark patent? The legal fees attached
and the prior searches needed to ensure that you are not infringing on other people's work
before you can even submit an application is a good $2,000 USD by itself.

Facts: You can go through $40,000 USD easy (personal experience)
before you can even get close to a copyright or a patent application in the US.
So! Are you guys trying to tell me that each and everyone of you can afford the extreme
cost of copyrights, or patents, for each and every one of your masterpieces and --
the additional costs of maintaining it every three years there hence?

Be serious!!! I wouldn't post any of my pics in the net
until and unless I am prepared and willing to share it with strangers who
may unknowingly and innocently clicks them in the net.

Though I have nothing to do with, I do feel sorry for the guy who
got scolded left and right in CMF for unknowingly clicked some pic which was
claimed as this guys legal and personal property. Damn Warlords!!!

The poor guy! I do feel for him...

.

[George J]

I admire the sheer # of grainy telephoto pics that come out China every second day. But I an anxiously wait for the day when someone for one of those esteemed "expert websites" on Chinese defence matters on the net get to official goto an Chinese airbase/naval dockyard/day at sea and take some good NON-grainy non telephoto pics officially..ya know like an Oracle/SinoDef/PakDef exclusive.

[edisonone]

But I an anxiously wait for the day when someone for one of those esteemed
"expert websites" on Chinese defence matters on the net get to official goto an Chinese airbase/
naval dockyard/day at sea and take some good NON-grainy non telephoto

You've got to be kiddin'! Clearer picture? I mean
would they let anyone anywhere near secretive Groom Lake or
Nellies AFB, NV, unless they wanted you to do so?

On airbase/naval dockyard: Maybe our grainery expert, Mr. SOC, might
be able to decipher this supposedly US Inteligence footage. It was attached to
this guy Fisher's charges the Chinese were keeping secrets from the US.

http://bbs.military.china.com/jsp/pu...06/2/17/35.jpg

I mean how silly can one be for making such unrealistic charges.
Honestly, I can't make out anything from that pic, can you, OC? Hah! underwater tunnels!
I mean that's like saying that Nessie and the Ogopogo exists ...

What will this fisher guy cook
up next I wonder... I guess that's what you get
for being "easy pickin's" isn't it?


.

[sealordlawrence]

Thanks for that pic you posted edissonne, very interesting, but it would be better in the Navy forum.

[fazer01]

.


Canopies/ejection seats:


My my!!! Just as it is with CSI Vegas , the very tiniest and the most
minute of atomic particals... it gets picked on and it gets scrutinized doesn't it? Or,
if there isn't any evidence left at the crime scene, we create one don't we ?

The again, did you guys also know what the actual character (Catherine
Willows), which is being portrayed by the sexy Marg Helgenberger in CSI says about the show
when she was interviewed by Larry King ??? She said: Don't kid yourselves because life isn't as cool
or as simple as you would like it to be or as depicted in the TV screen!




Back to life and all its realities:

Another source for that J-10 just in case some of those
"CD/CMfers WARLORDS" start screaming their lungs out about people
(who innocently of course) infringed on their masterpieces:

http://military.china.com/zh_cn/bbs/.../13104872.html

To the warlords: If it's such a big deal, why post your pics in the net?




(Ignor following if it does not apply to you)

The fine prints of copyrights:

For all those who unknowingly but nonetheless "unlawfully" attaches
the logo "copyright" to their works: Do you guys know how much it cost for you
to get a copyright, a design, of even a simple thing such as a trademark patent? The legal fees attached
and the prior searches needed to ensure that you are not infringing on other people's work
before you can even submit an application is a good $2,000 USD by itself.

Facts: You can go through $40,000 USD easy (personal experience)
before you can even get close to a copyright or a patent application in the US.
So! Are you guys trying to tell me that each and everyone of you can afford the extreme
cost of copyrights, or patents, for each and every one of your masterpieces and --
the additional costs of maintaining it every three years there hence?

Be serious!!! I wouldn't post any of my pics in the net
until and unless I am prepared and willing to share it with strangers who
may unknowingly and innocently clicks them in the net.

Though I have nothing to do with, I do feel sorry for the guy who
got scolded left and right in CMF for unknowingly clicked some pic which was
claimed as this guys legal and personal property. Damn Warlords!!!

The poor guy! I do feel for him...

.

I don't get your point...It seems I am a bit slow for you'but I can't tell what your argument is...I just looked at the Picture and wrote what I saw...What's your problem?
And i ain't no Warlord either...I'm Greek!

[edisonone]

I don't get your point...It seems I am a bit slow for you'but I can't tell what your argument is...I just looked at the Picture and wrote what I saw...What's your problem?
And i ain't no Warlord either...I'm Greek!

Sorry fazer01. I guess what it is is that you missed the part where
I said to "ignor it it does not apply to you". The bottom part wasn't meant for you. It was
meant for some one mean machine who surfs AFM as well as CMF.


.

[crobato]

Just been looking at the numbers of AL-31FNs ordered/delivered. The only thing which seems certain is that some 54 were delivered in the 2001/2002 period. There were reports that some 250 were ordered in mid 2004 ( http://www.gateway2russia.com/st/art_260291.php ), whilst other sources say that about 100 were ordered in August 2005. I cant be certain about either of these. But it would seem to be likely that there are enough AL-31FNs in china for this aircraft to be the 100th example.

The first order which supplied engines to the prototypes may have been a huge amount to guarantee commitment and to help financially setup an exclusive production line (it is made in a unique facility south of Moscow seperate from all other AL-31F engines). It probably started around 1997 (J-10 first flight is March 1998) and ended in 2001. After that, there was an order for 54 engines whose deliveries began on the spring of 2002. Kanwa claims that between 2002 and 2004, another order for 54 engines was made, with deliveries ending in 2004. Around April 2004, there was more talks but it is not clear if orders were made. Around December 2004, there was near confirmation that a deal was made for 100 engines. Then in July 2005, there was a confirmed deal for 100 engines. I believe the July 2005 order was the ones for the version with increased power and TVC nozzles, which is expected to begin delivery this year. Around October 2005, there was a report of engine deliveries (Jane's).

The press reports are hazy and the Russian contractors did sign a secrecy clause in the contract, so they're not obligated to clarify their information.

The best way to follow the numbers is to follow the actual J-10 ORBATs themselves, which location they are sighted and decoding their unit numbers. That represents the bottom line as to really how many planes were operational. Right now it is possible the numbers reach a hundred and over, if indeed it is true that deployments have begun in the 2nd Division and 3rd Division, in addition to those already in the 44th Division.

[sealordlawrence]

If there realy are 100+ J-10's out there then I think we could eventually see more than the 300 that has been predicted. If we assume production began in 2002, then 25 a year have been produced on average, but we can probably assume that the rate of production has been increasing, so it would not surprise me if some 30 have been produced in the past 12 months- a very respectable rate of production. Considering that the J-11 appears to have fallen from favour, the PLAAF still seems reluctant about the FC-1, and the rumoured advanced versions of the J-10 that are being developed, it seems as if the future of the J-10 in PLAAF service is very bright.
Although I would like to see some images of in service J-10's with BVR's.

[tphuang]

2 production lines going for J-10A. The production rate is either 2 or 3 for each line per month. Possibly a third production line for J-10B. No idea what the production rate is on B. 300 will be achieved by probably 2009. I'm still sticking with 1200 J-10s eventually. The production will probably go all the way til 2020 (not crazy if you look at how long China has being cranking out J-7s). I'm sure there were pictures of J-10 with PL-12.

[edisonone]

http://bbs.military.china.com/jsp/pu...1361896&page=0

[sealordlawrence]

So if we say that 5 a month can be produced, thats 60 per annum, which means that the 300 figure can be achieved within five years. If we assume that 100 have already been built that leaves 200, so thats about 3.5 to 4 years therefore I would suspect that the 300 figure will be reached in 2010. With it being very unlikely that there will be anything other than another J-10 variant to replace it in production by then it is very likely we will see more than 300.

Incidently the source that posted in one of my earlier posts says that delivery of some 250 engines (not including the original 54) should be complete in 2010. Then of course there is the WS-10A as well-is it true that the chinese are working on TVC for that engine?

[crobato]

If there realy are 100+ J-10's out there then I think we could eventually see more than the 300 that has been predicted. If we assume production began in 2002, then 25 a year have been produced on average, but we can probably assume that the rate of production has been increasing, so it would not surprise me if some 30 have been produced in the past 12 months- a very respectable rate of production. Considering that the J-11 appears to have fallen from favour, the PLAAF still seems reluctant about the FC-1, and the rumoured advanced versions of the J-10 that are being developed, it seems as if the future of the J-10 in PLAAF service is very bright.

There seems to be signs that J-11 production has resumed as well, so they're not completely out of favor and FC-1 04 well on its way. But my guess is the bulk of the PLAAF's near future would fall on the J-10.

Although I would like to see some images of in service J-10's with BVR's.

So far we have only seen pictures of the planes on the trial regiment that have them. Pics of live missiles are rare because in training you don't need to use them and if you keep flying up and down they will eventually break without being used. Once in a while AAMs are tested regularly to make sure they're still valid, or in live fire exercises, but you would be lucky if someone can catch a plane with live AAMs at that very moment. We're lucky enough to get any J-10 pic as it is, and extremely lucky to even see the FTTC J-10s with the PL-12.

[PLAMC]

A guy named "x" posted this at CMF

Nice new J-10 pic, Huitong says the serial number is 10642 (#62).

I wish there was a J-10 pic in PLAN colours.

[edisonone]

Cool... And, this one flies too if you do!
http://military.china.com/zh_cn/bbs/.../13107348.html

[Don Chan]

http://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20...000000-san-pol

More Japanese complaint about Chinese intelligence aircraft and ships intruding Japanese ADIZ and EEZ. {yawn}

[Jack Sparrow]

J-10b and Jh7a

[edisonone]

.


Japanese complaint about Chinese intelligence:

http://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20...000000-san-pol

More Japanese complaint about Chinese intelligence aircraft and ships intruding Japanese ADIZ and EEZ. {yawn}

When the Japanese speak, we must understand that what we are
in fact hearing is its master talking. I mean realistically, how many of you
really believe that Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan have any actual say in any matter?
My suspicions: The one that is really speaking -- its registered owner.

Example: If its registered owner
says "No!" to the shrine, then I bet there's no way
Japan will dare visits that shrine.

.

[Don Chan]

http://news.xinhuanet.com/mil/2006-0...nt_4187574.htm

Civilian searchlights near air base disrupted night sorties of PLAAF fighters. {yawn}

[SOC]

On airbase/naval dockyard: Maybe our grainery expert, Mr. SOC, might be able to decipher this supposedly US Inteligence footage. It was attached to this guy Fisher's charges the Chinese were keeping secrets from the US.

Looks like a tunnel entrance to me. Dunno if it's for hiding submarines, but looking at the XIA and HAN sitting there it looks wide enough.

I mean how silly can one be for making such unrealistic charges. Honestly, I can't make out anything from that pic, can you, OC? Hah! underwater tunnels! I mean that's like saying that Nessie and the Ogopogo exists ...

You also have to consider that this is what was released to the media. Who knows what other angles, or what other types of imagery, are available that weren't released to the public?

[Don Chan]

My suspicions: The one that is really speaking -- its registered owner.

Actually, JASDF canine members at Iruma AB.

[edisonone]

Actually, JASDF canine members at Iruma AB.

Please... Don! That indeed is not very nice of you!!! I mean if a son of
the dragon Mr. FuManchu, you should've pick up the better side of him and be civil to
people rather than to play the villainous part of him that the creator of Mr. FuManChu had
intended of him... I'm disapointed in you Mr. Chan! Deeply disapointed!!!

.

[TinWing]

Actually, JASDF canine members at Iruma AB.

The "JASDF canine members" in question look a bit German.

[Saeed Khan]

Musharraf to inspect Sino-Pak fighter jet:

Beijing, Feb 22: Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf will inspect the multi-purpose JF-17 (Thunder) fighter jet, jointly manufactured by China Pakistan, during his visit to southwest China's Sichuan province (Thursday Feb 23).

The maiden flight of the JF-17 was held on September 3, 2003, in Chengdu, capital of Sichuan Province. Sources also did not rule out a demonstration flight of the JF-17 for the visiting Pakistani general.

The JF-17 fighter jet project, which China and Pakistan jointly funded, started in 1999 when CATIC signed a co-operative agreement with the Pakistan Air Force.

Since then, CATIC, Chengdu Aircraft Industry Company, Chengdu Aircraft Designing Institute and the Pakistan Air Force have been developing the fighter jet.

Musharraf left here today for Sichuan to continue his state visit to China during which he held talks with Chinese leaders, including President Hu Jintao, top legislator Wu Bangguo and Premier Wen Jiabao.

He also witnessed the signing of 13 bilateral agreements ranging from trade and energy to agriculture and defence.

As his visit coincided with the 55th anniversary of establishment of diplomatic ties between the two countries, Musharraf unveiled a series of commemorative events in Beijing.

In Sichuan, the hometown of giant pandas, Musharraf will visit a base of giant panda in the provincial capital Chengdu and meet with businesspeople there, the official Xinhua news agency reported. PTI

PTI

[plawolf]

It might not be beyound the relm of possibility that the prototype FC1-04 will make its 'first flight' on the day Musharraf visits the factory. If we are lucky, we may get the first decent pics of 04 then.