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Thread: BREXIT - Merged thread.

  1. #2101
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    That very much depends on your definition of "good" in this context. All we can say at the moment is that things will be different. Some things will undoubtedly be worse, and some things better. As a democrat, I prefer my government to be more local, and locally accountable, and I don't see why some MEP in the furthest reaches of Eastern Europe should have a say in national laws, and vice versa. In this respect the new arrangement will be preferable, from my point of view at least.

  2. #2102
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    Quote Originally Posted by Agent K View Post
    Very much in the same way there is no evidence to suggest Brexit will be good for the country, or otherwise. There is no plan, there is no solid evidence to prove either the positive or negative case. Similarly it's a load of hot air at the moment.

    And yet you're happy to believe this sometimes fraudulent, and hypothetical at best, information and expect others to do the same? A little contradictory I think.

    It will be contradictory to you AK because, frankly, you can't sometimes 'see the wood for the trees'. My argument for Brexit doesn't center around the economic case as important as that is, it centers around the necessity for GB to govern itself and to be responsible for its affairs in a way that hasn't happened for the last forty or so years.

    Article 1 of the UN Charter specifies and enshrines the right of national self determination. Is GB to be denied that ? No, of course not. We are not of the Continent - as much as you might think differently. We are not France or Germany or Italy or remotely like any of the other EU members. We are an outward looking international maritime power who, more than any other nation on Earth has shaped the way the developed world and much of the undeveloped world to-day lives. We cannot be subservient to another power or congregate of powers.

    And much of the electorate of Britain are aware of that and voted accordingly. Thank Heaven.

  3. #2103
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    Have you seen the size of our Navy lately John?

    The Spanish have, it would seem..

    Now, I do find myself in some agreement with j_jza80, in regard to needing to cut down somewhat on pollution. Unlike John, I accept the case for global warming, and would note that we are not in a position to have observed and recorded any proposed full natural cycle that might exist. If nothing else we can demonstrate the benefits of reducing pollution on the environment, and on the health of the populace.

  4. #2104
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    Bruce, you know there is no 'case for global warming'. It is a supposition based upon an invention to justify the continuation of subsidies. Your support merely enriches the energy suppliers. Who pays ? The taxpayer. It's a very expensive and destructive scam.

  5. #2105
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    John, there is enough scientific evidence to be of concern to any right thinking person. If you choose not to believe that, then that is entirely up to you. I see no conspiracy, and importantly, no need for one.

    I don't see complacency as an option. If you are wrong, what then?

  6. #2106
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    None of us presently alive will ever know. The time scale will be too extended.

    If I and many others are right, we and many other nations will have taxed and subsidised ourselves into penury for no gain whatsoever. In the meantime, The major polluters; India, China, Russia go their merry way pumping out pollution galore without penalising their industries and without incurring any sanctions from the idiots in the West in thrall to fraudulent 'science' and what looks like a peculiar desire for some kind of industrial self flagellation.

    You couldn't make it up, unless of course you're Lewis Carroll.

  7. #2107
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    There are still people who believe the earth is flat. Not many, but a few.

    A few centuries ago almost everybody believed the world was flat.

    Denying climate change due to industrialisation and the burning of fossil fuels is on a par with still believing the earth is flat.

    Just because you chose to believe that it is not so doesn't alter the above. The only fraudulent science is served up by the deniers.

    Oh, and yet again you are behind the times John, you will find that china is taking this very seriously now and indeed is taking the lead left by the USA courtesy of forrest trump.
    http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa...-idUKKBN1360DK
    Last edited by trekbuster; 5th April 2017 at 17:16.

  8. #2108
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    What a farrago of juvenile nonsense. That epic belongs to the fourth form debating society. Permit me to introduce you to a 'flat earther'.

    Sir David King is best described as a climate change activist. In other words some kind of scientist. He is very scientific and therefore an arch proponent of man made climate change.

    He is so scientific that he is, as a scientific adviser, additionally famed for his support of diesel vehicles and the recommendation of cutting of fuel duty during the time of our unlamented late premier, one Tony Blair. The very scientific David King has just admitted that he got it all wrong.

    Just because he got such a piffle pottle matter of diesel engine pollution wrong, affecting the livelihoods of thousands, not to mention their health it doesn't automatically follow that he is also rather wide of the mark in connection with the other hat that he wears as a climate change activist - does it ?

  9. #2109
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    Nice to hear some wise and thoughtful words for a change, after all of the "We'll break your legs if you leave" rhetoric from the likes of Junker & co. : -



    Cheers

    Paul
    The most usless commodity in aerobatics is the amount of sky above you!

  10. #2110
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    Quote Originally Posted by John Green View Post
    What a farrago of juvenile nonsense. That epic belongs to the fourth form debating society. Permit me to introduce you to a 'flat earther'.

    Sir David King is best described as a climate change activist. In other words some kind of scientist. He is very scientific and therefore an arch proponent of man made climate change.

    He is so scientific that he is, as a scientific adviser, additionally famed for his support of diesel vehicles and the recommendation of cutting of fuel duty during the time of our unlamented late premier, one Tony Blair. The very scientific David King has just admitted that he got it all wrong.

    Just because he got such a piffle pottle matter of diesel engine pollution wrong, affecting the livelihoods of thousands, not to mention their health it doesn't automatically follow that he is also rather wide of the mark in connection with the other hat that he wears as a climate change activist - does it ?
    No John, of course it doesn't. If you read the remarks made by Mr King recently, you will be aware that the case for diesel was made by the automotive industry, who made spurious claims that they could control the NO emissions with catalytic converters and the like. He and the government made their recommendations based on a lie; one which has spread throughout the developed world. He always knew that diesel was bad, but was duped. It happens.

    If the Diesel 'revolution' is now over, then we will get used to it. Electric cars are coming on stream. If we can just build some more nuclear plants, we should get back to relatively cheap travel within a generation. All we need then is electric aeroplanes...

    I suspect you would prefer we burned more coal.

  11. #2111
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bradburger View Post
    Nice to hear some wise and thoughtful words for a change, after all of the "We'll break your legs if you leave" rhetoric from the likes of Junker & co. : -



    Cheers

    Paul
    Clearly somewhat selective Paul, but I found myself in full agreement with the Danish chap.

  12. #2112
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    Those clips suggest to me that the EU is in deeper trouble than it thinks it is.

  13. #2113
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    There are plenty of Eurosceptics in the EU parliament, although many of them still support EU membership as they see it as the 'lesser evil' (for want of a better term). Unfortunately they are outnumbered many times by federalists, which is why anything passed down from the commission regarding further EU integration often gets the rubber stamp with little opposition save a few loud but meaningless objections from people like Nigel Farage.

    The opposition for giving Britain a punishment settlement will come from the EU's 30,000 corporate lobbyists, who won't want trade barriers with a huge, important, and profitable market.

  14. #2114
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    That epic belongs to the fourth form debating society.
    Ah,but you see I was trying to set it at your level since you don't seem to understand the basics.
    Last edited by trekbuster; 6th April 2017 at 15:11.

  15. #2115
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    Thank you. I need all the help I can get.

  16. #2116
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    Quote Originally Posted by j_jza80 View Post
    There are plenty of Eurosceptics in the EU parliament, although many of them still support EU membership as they see it as the 'lesser evil' (for want of a better term). Unfortunately they are outnumbered many times by federalists, which is why anything passed down from the commission regarding further EU integration often gets the rubber stamp with little opposition save a few loud but meaningless objections from people like Nigel Farage.

    The opposition for giving Britain a punishment settlement will come from the EU's 30,000 corporate lobbyists, who won't want trade barriers with a huge, important, and profitable market.
    The damning thing for EU member states as regards trade barriers is that they won't even get to collect the tariffs, the EU will, just as they do now with non-EU imports, the recipient states only get a tiny fraction of it. On the other hand, UK HMRC would receive the full tariffs on roughly £300bn worth of EU imports, as well as the full tariffs on the £300bn of non-EU imports, which they don't currently get, as well as collecting an extra 0.3% on VAT (about £2bn/year) that currently goes to the EU on top of the annual £2bn/year membership fee.

    I've actually tried find the figure for how much in non-EU import tariffs we pay to the EU, but to no avail. I would imagine almost any percentage of £300bn will come to a significant number though. This seems to suggest around £12.9bn would be a WTO tariff on EU exports, so the figure for non-EU tariffs on a similar value of imports would likely be around £13bn too.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-versa-civitas

    So £15bn/year (13+2) extra for the treasury either way and possibly £38bn (13+2+13+10net) if no deal is struck. That figure excludes other indirect EU costs that could be cut like legislation, higher education subsidies for EU citizens in the UK (circa £2.5bn/year), JSA to EU citizens (£0.75bn/year), overseas child benefit payments (£0.25bn/year). So £41.5bn/year total minus legislation cost reduction. Assuming every export to the EU was lost, which is an unimaginable worst case, then that means £200bn worth of exports (after Rotterdam effect) lost. In fact only £133bn in terms of physical exports (not sure if that excludes Rotterdam effect), rest is unaffected consultancy services. Revenue collected on GDP is about 25%, so £33bn in lost UK government revenue on exports to EU, vs about £41.5bn increase in revenue plus savings elsewhere, not including legislation. Wonder who'll pick up the tab for the £41.5bn out of the remaining 27 states?

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/bu...-a7325326.html

    On the exit fee side of things, the current MFF ends in 2020. So given a £10bn/year net contribution, assuming we were liable for this, that makes a £10bn bill, assuming we pay all of 2019. Not sure where the EU got the rest from. This is offset by a UK claim on EU assets due to contributions paid, which could be considerable:

    http://ec.europa.eu/budget/mff/index_en.cfm
    http://bruegel.org/2017/02/the-uks-b...t-liabilities/

    The ‘Brexit bill’ is likely to be one of the most contentious aspects of the upcoming negotiations. But estimates so far focus largely on the EU costs and liabilities that the UK will have to buy its way out of. What about the EU’s assets? The UK will surely get a share of those, and they could total €153.7bn.
    Then there's also the argument that we've paid £600bn into the EU come 2020, so our claim on assets could extend well beyond this.

    https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.ne...pdf?1451513263

    Over the next five years, the UK is set to pay a further £96 billion to the EU, with total contributions hitting £600 billion in 2020.
    I have also noticed something somewhat curious:

    Verhofstadt - Belgium
    Juncker - Luxembourg
    Tusk - Poland

    Is it my imagination, or have they been extracting the urine? Belgium - not poor. Luxembourg - highest GDP/Capita on the planet. Why are they being subsidised by the EU? Poland - £12bn seems a little extravagant.

    Last edited by Ryan; 13th April 2017 at 19:44.

  17. #2117
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    Have you got a source for those figures?

    If they are correct, given the huge advantages the Euro is providing the German economy (while sucking the blood out of the rest of western Europe), it is the UK that is getting truly shafted.

  18. #2118
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    If you mean the big chart, it's here.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...d-to-know.html

    The £13bn figure is based on this estimate. We import roughly the same amount from outside the EU, so the import duties should be similar on them. At present the EU takes most of it.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-versa-civitas
    https://europa.eu/european-union/abo...enue-income_en

    The higher education figure is based on number of EU students multiplied by averaged tuition fee minus £9,250 student contribution.

    https://institutions.ukcisa.org.uk/Info-for-universities-colleges--schools/Policy-research--statistics/Research--statistics/International-students-in-UK-HE/#International-students-in-UK-HE-by-domicile,-level-and-mode,
    -European-Union-(EU)-(excluding-UK)-and-non-EU,-2015-16
    Last edited by Peter; 23rd April 2017 at 23:45.

  19. #2119
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    From Simon Sweeney, Lecturer in international political economy, University of York.

    "What did the EEC/EU ever do for us? Not much, apart from: providing 57% of our trade; structural funding to areas hit by industrial decline; clean beaches and rivers; cleaner air; lead free petrol; restrictions on landfill dumping; a recycling culture; cheaper mobile charges; cheaper air travel; improved consumer protection and food labelling; a ban on growth hormones and other harmful food additives; better product safety; single market competition bringing quality improvements and better industrial performance; break up of monopolies; Europe-wide patent and copyright protection; no paperwork or customs for exports throughout the single market; price transparency and removal of commission on currency exchanges across the eurozone; freedom to travel, live and work across Europe; funded opportunities for young people to undertake study or work placements abroad; access to European health services; labour protection and enhanced social welfare; smoke-free workplaces; equal pay legislation; holiday entitlement; the right not to work more than a 48-hour week without overtime; strongest wildlife protection in the world; improved animal welfare in food production; EU-funded research and industrial collaboration; EU representation in international forums; bloc EEA negotiation at the WTO; EU diplomatic efforts to uphold the nuclear non-proliferation treaty; European arrest warrant; cross border policing to combat human trafficking, arms and drug smuggling; counter terrorism intelligence; European civil and military co-operation in post-conflict zones in Europe and Africa; support for democracy and human rights across Europe and beyond; investment across Europe contributing to better living standards and educational, social and cultural capital. Finally the EU has for 60 years been the foundation of peace between European neighbours after centuries of bloodshed".

    Yes, Reg.. but apart from all of that, what has the EU ever done for us?
    www.whirlwindfighterproject.org
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  20. #2120
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    Just to be devils advocate here;

    We need to separate out from that list, those things that would not have been done if there hadn't been an EU - which is of course difficult. We cannot assume that these things only happened because of the EU - many would have happened anyway. The EU may well have facilitated them, but that is slightly different.

  21. #2121
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    Yeah. Sure. The Thanet People's Front would have done all that without the bloody Romans, right?
    www.whirlwindfighterproject.org
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  22. #2122
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    Why do I reach for my metaphorical gun whenever I hear the description "lecturer in international political economics ?"
    Bruce and I cannot ever agree on what time it is but, on the point he makes he is of course correct.

    Separating the invention from the merely false, I draw attention to the last sentence. What does the noble academic think was happening in Bosnia and Serbia during the 90s ? Of course the EU was busy keeping the peace and making absolutely sure there would be no conflict in Europe for the last 60 years !

    That one nonsensical statement completely destroys his whole panegyric

    Even the presence of NATO couldn't stop the start of the conflict but, NATO contained it and eventually stopped it. I can tell you what the EU has done for GB. It has removed our independence and the freedom to govern our affairs, something for which the British have fought tooth and nail over the centuries. My family never gave permission for this to happen, at last we have the chance to put matters right.

  23. #2123
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    Borders are meaningless here though, even within our own country things will happen (and have happened) that my family will never have given permission for.

    Whether it is EU enforced or UK government enforced the effect is the same and my feelings about them are no different whatever the origins.

  24. #2124
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    Dunno, John. Maybe it's your very traditional right-wing anti-intellectualism?

    Put the pistol away, Herman. It's international political economy, not economics.

    I think you will find that Bosnia and Serbia were not standing on the foundation the professor was referring to. As we won't be, shortly.
    Last edited by Beermat; 3rd May 2017 at 18:50.

  25. #2125
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    There's been some interesting stuff said by former Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis, who of course has first hand experience of dealing with the EU.

    (And if you recall, was against our leaving of the EU).



    Interesting that others who said this sort of thing would happen were shouted down, but then the 'gangsters' of Brussels would always want to show the world (and us) how powerful they think they are, and that anyone else who wants to leave the EU, should think again.

    But that's the EU, and their idea of democracy for you!

    Cheers

    Paul
    Last edited by Bradburger; 3rd May 2017 at 20:11.
    The most usless commodity in aerobatics is the amount of sky above you!

  26. #2126
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    An interesting list which is difficult, if not impossible, to tackle in one post. Maybe that is why it was drawn up, alongside the obvious Pythonesque parallel. I take umbrage with the notion that the EU have given us 'improved animal welfare in food production'. You can duck out (no pun intended) of a whole lot of that if you pass your meat off as Halal, and animal welfare is better and more stringently regulated in the UK than in the EU as a whole. For all that Danish Bacon is viewed as a beacon of quality, the pigs there get a pretty rough time of it.

    Things such as 'no paperwork or customs for exports throughout the single market' are demonstrably not true. Lead free petrol, restrictions on landfill dumping and cheaper mobile charges would have happened anyway. In the case of mobile phones the technology is there already, has improved and become cheaper over time. I would be surprised if, given what we now know about the long lifespans of materials traditionally dumped in landfills, we wouldn't have come up with some landfill regulation independently. The heavy contamination of Times Beach, Missouri and the Love Canal neighbourhood in Niagara Falls shocked people into taking action against dumping. Likewise once the health implications of leaded petrol (and smoking in the workplace) became apparent then action would have been taken eventually.

    I'm not especially pro-Brexit. I wish they would get on with it, but it is playing out in the manner in which I thought it probably would; slowly and so mired and bogged down that it might not even look like Brexit when it is all over, if it is ever over.

  27. #2127
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    The one that struck me was "structural funding to areas hit by industrial decline" which translates as giving us back some of what was left of our own money after doling it out to everybody else.

  28. #2128
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    No. It was spending our taxes to
    make our knackered cities less awful (it worked). Our own Government doing it directly might have been more cost-effecrive, but a series of regimes have been ideologically opposed to such things.

    This ugly truth gets close, I think, to what upsets the People's Front.
    Last edited by Beermat; 4th May 2017 at 07:19.

  29. #2129
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    From Simon Sweeney, Lecturer in international political economy, University of York.

    "What did the EEC/EU ever do for us? Not much, apart from: providing 57% of our trade; structural funding to areas hit by industrial decline; clean beaches and rivers; cleaner air; lead free petrol; restrictions on landfill dumping; a recycling culture; cheaper mobile charges; cheaper air travel; improved consumer protection and food labelling; a ban on growth hormones and other harmful food additives; better product safety; single market competition bringing quality improvements and better industrial performance; break up of monopolies; Europe-wide patent and copyright protection; no paperwork or customs for exports throughout the single market; price transparency and removal of commission on currency exchanges across the eurozone; freedom to travel, live and work across Europe; funded opportunities for young people to undertake study or work placements abroad; access to European health services; labour protection and enhanced social welfare; smoke-free workplaces; equal pay legislation; holiday entitlement; the right not to work more than a 48-hour week without overtime; strongest wildlife protection in the world; improved animal welfare in food production; EU-funded research and industrial collaboration; EU representation in international forums; bloc EEA negotiation at the WTO; EU diplomatic efforts to uphold the nuclear non-proliferation treaty; European arrest warrant; cross border policing to combat human trafficking, arms and drug smuggling; counter terrorism intelligence; European civil and military co-operation in post-conflict zones in Europe and Africa; support for democracy and human rights across Europe and beyond; investment across Europe contributing to better living standards and educational, social and cultural capital. Finally the EU has for 60 years been the foundation of peace between European neighbours after centuries of bloodshed".

    Yes, Reg.. but apart from all of that, what has the EU ever done for us?
    All inaccurate, they only account for 39% of our exports.

    Break up monopolies - Merger after merger after merger.

    Most of the rest is garbage that would have happened with or without the EU.

  30. #2130
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    Ryan, you better tell the professor he is wrong. And ask his bosses for his job. Clearly you have studied international political economy more than he has, and have uncovered the correct figures. (the Daily Mail has the effect of making many of us senior academics). This was a 2013 figure on trade, not exports, I doubt he made it up, don't you?

    Much of the pan-european agreement - freedom to work anywhere, security co-operation etc listed, as well as targetted urban regeneration,workplace reform and the rest, would indeed have happened anyway, but without us.

    Perhaps it's all about perspective?

    I doubt the 'class-formerly-known-as-working' generally know, because the tabloids haven't mentioned it to us, how much crappier it might have got without our emergency entry into the EU (EEC). We are about to find out.
    Last edited by Beermat; 4th May 2017 at 07:49.

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