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Thread: Malaysian B.777 MH One Seven downed over Ukraine.

  1. #31
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    Well, that is positive.

  2. #32
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    As has been said the airspace above 30000ft was open... why? simple... the separatists only had shoulder launched SAMs.
    They cant hit a target at that altitude. All previous shoot downs inside Ukraine were with shoulder launched missiles aimed at military aircraft flying at low and medium level.

    Its been alledged that the BUK SAM missile system was taken from a Ukrainian base which was over run a few weeks ago. Now if correct how would they know how to use it?
    It would take weeks of training etc in order to work how, unless of course those using it had previous experience.

    Video emerged today of a BUK missile launcher on the back of a civilian flat bed truck in the immediate area of the shoot down, with one of its 4 missiles missing.
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  3. #33
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    BBC :

    A team of international observers say pro-Russian rebels in Ukraine have limited their access to the wreckage of a Malaysia Airlines plane.
    Read more...

    This isn't going to help things.
    http://forum.keypublishing.com/image.php?type=sigpic&userid=24455&dateline=137163  6822Hindsight is what you see from the tailgunner's position...

  4. #34
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    @Snafu, just off of Avherald

    On Jul 18th 2014 Russia's Interstate Aviation Committee (MAK), responsible for investigation of aviation accidents, announced that they believe in the circumstances of the crash of MH-17 the investigation should be carried out under the supervision of the ICAO. The blackboxes will therefore be handed over to the ICAO for investigation.


    If accurate, it shows that Russia may be trying to be a good neighbor and trying to distance themselves from this. Is this some good news or will they revert to the old Soviet style of blocking or hindering the investigation?
    The question is did Russia have any control over the SAM, or was it completely controlled by separatists? I don't believe either would intentionally shoot down a third party airliner.

    From a world opinion viewpoint, it sounds like they realize shooting down a plane largely filled with Europeans isn't the same thing as the downing the Korean 707 and 747 back in the 80s (where half of the world was more than willing to believe they were on a spy mission).
    Last edited by J Boyle; 19th July 2014 at 07:08.
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    The black boxes won't tell us where the missile came from or who launched it.

  6. #36
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    From WSJ :

    “There are federal emergency service workers at the scene…But they have no freedom of movement. They are not allowed to leave the zone [under the control of the separatists]. The terrorists are taking all evidence that they gather,” said Andriy Lysenko, the spokesman for the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council.
    Read more...
    http://forum.keypublishing.com/image.php?type=sigpic&userid=24455&dateline=137163  6822Hindsight is what you see from the tailgunner's position...

  7. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by J Boyle View Post
    If accurate, it shows that Russia may be trying to be a good neighbor and trying to distance themselves from this. Is this some good news or will they revert to the old Soviet style of blocking or hindering the investigation.
    I've been thinking on that, but the black boxes are pretty irrelevant. Perhaps the pilots mention on the CVR that they see a missile incoming. Perhaps the FDR data can explain where specifically the plane was hit. But that still does not answer the critical question of who did it.

    For that you need missile debris containing serial numbers. And if that debris has not already vanished or been tampered with we need opennes from the Russian and Ukrainian military (or the missile's manufacturer) to establish who owned the missile. Was it from Russian stock, or have the rebels stolen it from Ukrainian inventory.

    I am not expecting such opennes from Russia as it would prove their involvement in the conflict, which they are still officially denying. Neither am i expecting such openness from the Ukraine as they want to prove to the world that Russia has started a proxy war. The missile manufacturer won't do so either cause they are a Russian company.
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  8. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by slipperysam View Post
    As has been said the airspace above 30000ft was open... why? simple... the separatists only had shoulder launched SAMs.
    They cant hit a target at that altitude. All previous shoot downs inside Ukraine were with shoulder launched missiles aimed at military aircraft flying at low and medium level.

    Its been alledged that the BUK SAM missile system was taken from a Ukrainian base which was over run a few weeks ago. Now if correct how would they know how to use it?
    It would take weeks of training etc in order to work how, unless of course those using it had previous experience.

    Video emerged today of a BUK missile launcher on the back of a civilian flat bed truck in the immediate area of the shoot down, with one of its 4 missiles missing.
    The real question is, if the Ukrainian air control knew that there were stolen Buk systems, why it didn't close the airspace above the war zone right away. I don't want to go to the other thread to argue who is right or wrong. I think it is time to review the safety regulations concerning civilian flights over war zones.
    Last edited by Erlindur; 19th July 2014 at 12:20.

  9. #39
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    The answer to your question and indeed others begged, is that "terrorists" are accountable to no one but themselves and act outside the norms of behavior in circumstances such as these.

    The likelihood of the authorities being able to undertake a conventional investigation is pretty remote, I would have thought.

  10. #40
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    I wonder who the preceeding civilian plane who passed through the area was and what his lucky talisman is?
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  11. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by slipperysam View Post
    Its been alledged that the BUK SAM missile system was taken from a Ukrainian base which was over run a few weeks ago. Now if correct how would they know how to use it?
    It would take weeks of training etc in order to work how, unless of course those using it had previous experience.
    Of course, if you 'borrowed' a few Buk trained patriots, who would willingly give up a few hours of their time (with permission from their CO) then you wouldn't need to train rebels...;o)

    Quote Originally Posted by Peter Garner View Post
    The black boxes won't tell us where the missile came from or who launched it.
    But it will tell us that the airliner was operating normally up until the point of impact, that it wasn't a mechanical malfunction that brought it down.

  12. #42
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    From Avherald :

    "Malaysia is deeply concerned that the crash site has not been properly secured. The integrity of the site has been compromised, and there are indications that vital evidence has not been preserved in place. Interfering with the scene of the crash risks undermining the investigation itself. Any actions that prevent us from learning the truth about what happened to MH17 cannot be tolerated. Failure to stop such interference would be a betrayal of the lives that were lost." and concluded their statement: "This outrage cannot go unpunished. Once again, Malaysia condemns this brutal act of aggression, and calls for those responsible to be found, and to face the full force of justice without delay."
    Read more...
    http://forum.keypublishing.com/image.php?type=sigpic&userid=24455&dateline=137163  6822Hindsight is what you see from the tailgunner's position...

  13. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by slipperysam View Post
    As has been said the airspace above 30000ft was open... why? simple... the separatists only had shoulder launched SAMs.
    They cant hit a target at that altitude. All previous shoot downs inside Ukraine were with shoulder launched missiles aimed at military aircraft flying at low and medium level.

    Ukraine, in turn, has accused Russia of firing a rocket that destroyed an Antonov-26 military transport plane on Monday, and Ukraine also accused Russian military planes of carrying out an airstrike that destroyed a residential building and killed 11 people in the town of Snizhne on Tuesday morning.

    The American official who briefed reporters on the new sanctions said the Ukrainian transport plane had been flying at an altitude of 21,000 feet. “Only very sophisticated weapons systems would be able to reach this height,” the official said.
    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/18/wo...-jet.html?_r=0



    The Ukrainian government also accused Russia of shooting down an An-26 transport plane over eastern Ukraine on Monday, with the loss or reported capture of its crew members.

    Ukrainian officials sought to argue that pro-Russian separatist rebels could not have downed the plane because they lacked missiles to hit it at high altitude.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28345039

  14. #44
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    @Amiga500,

    That is what I'm talking about. Forget sides, good and bad guys, labels. It is simply commercial flight safety. People in the Ukrainian defence ministry probably knew that BUK systems were on rebel hands and no one informed air traffic control? There is something wrong with the system. You have the Ukrainian government daily accuse Russian air defence of taking down it's planes and the Eurocontrol simply ignored them? There is something wrong with the system. I don't know and I don't care who tells the truth in this case. All I know, is that sending civilian aircraft over that zone is an accident waiting to happen. You reroute planes simply for the suspicion of a storm forming. Is it hard to regulate the same kind of rules about war zones? Or it costs too much money?

  15. #45
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    Hello,

    While following the reports on TV,( Sky;BBC;ITV,Fox;RT;AJ and others) I seem to have heard that at some point before the misile strike the Ukranian authorities had requested that MH-17 reduce its height .

    1/. Anyone know if this was indeed the case ?
    2/. Do we know why this request had been made ?
    3/. If so at what height was MH-17 at that time ?
    4/. In the event it seems that the request was ignored by MH-17 what reason would they have had for not following such a request from the proper authority, is it the norm for such requests to be ignored ?

    In any event what followed was tragic and dare I say on par with 911, muliple Nations involved.
    My thoughts are with those lost and their families.

    Alex

  16. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by tenthije View Post
    I've been thinking on that, but the black boxes are pretty irrelevant.
    I agree. My statement was simply that by turning over the boxes, they look like they're assisting in the investigation.
    A PR tactic that will play well to parts of the international audience.
    There are two sides to every story. The truth is usually somewhere between the two.

  17. #47
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    Jim, from what I have been reading, the separatists have only been marginally cooperative. See this article : http://news.yahoo.com/disappearing-b...154851385.html

    It must be hell for the poor families.

    On Jul 20th 2014 an agreement reached between separatists and Ukrainian Recovery Services permitted the recovery of 196 of the 298 bodies so far. According to Ukrainian government Ukrainian recovery services and international observers are permitted to recover the bodies and take them to a safe place. According to Associated Press the bodies have been loaded onto trains headed to a separatist held city. Ukrainian Donetsk Emergency Ministry confirmed 196 bodies have been recovered and are going to be transferred to Donestsk.

    On Jul 20th 2014 the OSCE confirmed bodies have been brought to the rail station of Tores where three refriggerated rail cars are used to store the victims until international experts arrive. The separatists claim 167 bodies have been brought to Tores, the OSCE has not been able to verify this however.
    Last edited by 27vet; 21st July 2014 at 04:58.
    http://forum.keypublishing.com/image.php?type=sigpic&userid=24455&dateline=137163  6822Hindsight is what you see from the tailgunner's position...

  18. #48
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    Irrelevant or not I found the sight of the black boxes being formally turned over to the Malay authorities faintly nauseous, as though the rebels were doing them a favour. Nearly 300 innocent people gave been killed for god's sake!!!

  19. #49
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    Just in passing there is some nonsense being spread that a Ukranian SU25 was in the area and could have downed the airliner with a missile over the rebel territory to implicate them.

    Then somebody pointed out that the service ceiling of an SU25 was insufficient to allow this

    Today the Wikipedia entry on SU25 has been locked from editing after attempts to alter its performance details

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  20. #50
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    Hello,

    In reply to Moggy C,
    Here is a link the tells of the supposed SU25 incident - http://rt.com/news/174412-malaysia-p...ussia-ukraine/

    My apologies for full RT as I do not know how to isolate the actual video bit.
    Perhaps Moggy C can adjust my post to just give the video.

    Alex
    Last edited by Alex Smart; 22nd July 2014 at 11:08.

  21. #51
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    Evidence of missile "hit" found.

    The greenish yello side of the panel is the inside of the fuselage. Note how the holes peel inward? That means something impacted the fuselage and entered it from outside.

    The type of missile that is supposed to have been used does not impact it's target, it explodes near it, sending shrapnel and a concussion wave at it's target.
    The plethora of holes and sooting on the panel in the third and fourth photos show you this missile did exactly that.

    The diagram shows you where the panels came from. As you can see, it was a direct "hit" on the cockpit.
    Once the holes were made, the force of the air rushing in as the plane flew at cruising speed would have utterly ripped the plane apart.

    Click image for larger version. 

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  22. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alex Smart View Post

    Perhaps Moggy C can adjust my post to just give the video.

    Alex
    Thanks for the compliment but I'm afraid that is way outside my capabilities. I'm just here to keep the peace; geeky sorts up at Key do all the clever Interweb stuff.

    Regards,

    Moggy
    "What you must remember" Flip said "is that nine-tenths of Cattermole's charm lies beneath the surface." Many agreed.

  23. #53
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    Here is what is left of the flight deck and surrounding structure.

    Click image for larger version. 

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    Bmused55

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  24. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by Moggy C View Post
    Just in passing there is some nonsense being spread that a Ukranian SU25 was in the area and could have downed the airliner with a missile over the rebel territory to implicate them.

    Then somebody pointed out that the service ceiling of an SU25 was insufficient to allow this

    Today the Wikipedia entry on SU25 has been locked from editing after attempts to alter its performance details

    Moggy
    In that hypothesis, the question that remains is why a Su25 would hve been flying at such unusual height. For what kind of mission ? with what sort of payload ? Shadowing an airliner for a safe reco ? At that height it would have required an external pod with excellent optical quality. Does UkrAF hve such equipment ? A modified one. An external sourced ? And then, why did they took the risk to operate their An26 before? So was the hypothetical 25 a last ditch effort after the shotdown ?


    If so that raised another set of question.

    Won't it hve been in the interest of the UkrAF to let the civilian traffic flow even by disregarding the security of those overflight (that they are responsible as it was their Airspace and they are the one granting overflight authorization?

    As we see the implication of that second shadowing contact, if true, raise a new set of question, for the MH17, and for the future of commercial flight:

    Does a nation committed to war can still be granted responsibility for any commercial overflight of its territory by the world community ?


    Last bu not least, the weather over Donetz that day was cloudy. Not really precise source of info, but it's a first row:

    Click image for larger version. 

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    Last edited by TomcatViP; 23rd July 2014 at 02:11.

  25. #55
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    The CVR and FDR have now been handed over in Farnborough.
    But other than (at best) "Bang, rush of air, sound of breakup, end of recording", what could they possibly add to the investigation of this tragedy other than the exact time it happened?

    Also, how about this for a very strange twist of coincidence:

    MH17 was shot down on the 17th. The aircraft operating it was 17 years old, having been delivered to Malaysia on the 17th July 1997.
    Three 17's. The conspiracy theorists will be out in force!
    Last edited by Bmused55; 23rd July 2014 at 21:42.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bmused55 View Post
    The CVR and FDR have now been handed over in Farnborough.
    But other than (at best) "Bang, rush of air, sound of breakup, end of recording", what could they possibly add to the investigation of this tragedy other than the exact time it happened?
    It will confirm that something happened that was out of the control of the crew, something that was not mechanical, something that interfered with the usual flight regime. It will cross a few possibilities off the check list.

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    On Friday, the OSCE team again toured the crash site, returning to a recently discovered section of fuselage from the plane. This time -- unlike Thursday -- victims' passports and other documentation were there, Bociurkiw said.
    "We can't draw any conclusions. But for sure, those were not there the last time we were there," he said. "Perhaps someone placed it there. We don't know."
    Source:
    CNN.com
    Last edited by TomcatViP; 31st October 2014 at 03:54.

  29. #59
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    Following the shot down, the UN is pushing for new responsibility to be given to the ICAO regarding the prevention and sourcing of information for the overflight by airliner of potential danger zone.


    "The world must view this tragedy as a wake-up call," Malaysian transport minister Liow Tiong Lai said in prepared remarks at an ICAO meeting in Montreal on Monday, calling for a "global protocol" to share information about risks to flights.

    "We can no longer be complacent and must take preventative measures now."
    Note:
    Btw the two last entries, a lot of the discussions happened on the Military forum.
    Here is the direct link:
    http://forum.keypublishing.com/showt...highlight=MH17


    Source:
    Reuters.com
    Last edited by TomcatViP; 31st October 2014 at 03:54.

  30. #60
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    Hello,
    It has been a while now since recovery teams went to the crash area.
    So, is it now known if all human remains have been recovered or not ?
    Media gave lots of cover at the start with full coverage of aircraft arriving in the west and unloading of coffins. But nothing more since as far as I am aware.
    Also what of the wreckage, has that now been collected and brought out for full examination, maybe just large sections even ?
    Thanks
    Alex

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