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Thread: KF-X/IF-X & TF-X for Europe?

  1. #1
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    KF-X/IF-X & TF-X for Europe?

    KF-X/IF-X & TF-X for Europe?

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    There are many indications, that (results of the) projects KF-X/IF-X & TF-X can be a very good alternatives for future air forces of European countries in 2030s and later.

    Because:

    - there will be no other alternative to F-35 for NATO/western countries

    - both should be more affordable than F-35

    - both will be full NATO compatibile

    - both will use results of European R&D and can help and bring benefits (and employees) for European industry in many areas (SAAB, Eurojet etc.)

    - many European countries will need relatively cheap and affordable replacement for 4th generation fighters in 2030s and later, for example: Finland, Sweden, Spain, Portugal, Greece, Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, (Germany? )…


    (BTW both fighters could have good export potential: KF-X/IF-X especially in Southeast Asia and Pacific region – Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore… – and TF-X in Middle East and Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan, Morocco and…Azerbaijan of course.)


    Geo

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    I think to dub them as " affordable compared to the F-35" is really under-estimating the Inherent RISK involved with these 2 projects. Both the nations are attempting something that is quite complex (5th gen fighter development) and a big step up from what they are used to do within the aerospace industry. If they are executed 100% as planned, and fairly close to the design goals, yes they would come in cheaper, however the RISK associated is HUGE for both nations. The F-35 10-15 years from now, would be filedided , had its chinks sorted out, and the production lines would be running at full capacity... So the CAPABILITY and COST combined with TIMELINES (IOC 2025, 2030 etc etc) would matter a lot as far as exportability is concerned...I would add the AMCA to the list as well. The main benefit obviously is to the indegenous aerospace industry, which i understand : my argument is only towards the export prospects vis-a-vis the F-35.
    Old radar types never die; they just phased array

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    Isn't to early saying anything on KFX/IFX or TFX ? KFX/IFX only manage to finish the first stage of development, and the second stage now being delayed by ROK for at least another 18 mo. TFX, well right now is just a rough design.

    Anything can happen on those projects.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Geo View Post
    - there will be no other alternative to F-35 for NATO/western countries

    - both should be more affordable than F-35

    - both will be full NATO compatibile

    - both will use results of European R&D and can help and bring benefits (and employees) for European industry in many areas (SAAB, Eurojet etc.)

    - many European countries will need relatively cheap and affordable replacement for 4th generation fighters in 2030s and later, for example: Finland, Sweden, Spain, Portugal, Greece, Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, (Germany? )…


    (BTW both fighters could have good export potential: KF-X/IF-X especially in Southeast Asia and Pacific region – Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore… – and TF-X in Middle East and Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan, Morocco and…Azerbaijan of course.)


    Geo
    What makes you think they will be cheaper? Is Mitsubishi F-2 a cheap airplane, compared to say a Eurocanard or F-16?

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    F-2 would have been cheap if built at a reasonable rate. Programme unit cost was high mainly because development costs (in themselves, not high - cost control seems to have been good) were spread over very few units, & to a lesser extent because production rate was very low. If enough had been ordered to replace all the F-1s & F-4s one for one, the unit price would have looked a great deal better, & if as many had been ordered as the Typhoon, I think it would have turned out pretty cheap.
    Juris praecepta sunt haec: honeste vivere, alterum non laedere, suum cuique tribuere.
    Justinian

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    Quote Originally Posted by swerve View Post
    F-2 would have been cheap if built at a reasonable rate. Programme unit cost was high mainly because development costs (in themselves, not high - cost control seems to have been good) were spread over very few units, & to a lesser extent because production rate was very low. If enough had been ordered to replace all the F-1s & F-4s one for one, the unit price would have looked a great deal better, & if as many had been ordered as the Typhoon, I think it would have turned out pretty cheap.
    That's one reason. One of the other reasons is very expensive workforce in Japan in 90s and 2000s.

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    sure TF-X in europe can be a reality.
    Turkey is already in Europe
    .. or is it

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by ananda View Post
    Isn't to early saying anything on KFX/IFX or TFX ? KFX/IFX only manage to finish the first stage of development, and the second stage now being delayed by ROK for at least another 18 mo. TFX, well right now is just a rough design.

    Anything can happen on those projects.
    Naturally, ananda, its only hypothetical topic. But... may be, Turkey, South Korea and Indonesia are in relatively good economic condition.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bring_it_on View Post
    I think to dub them as " affordable compared to the F-35" is really under-estimating the Inherent RISK involved with these 2 projects. Both the nations are attempting something that is quite complex (5th gen fighter development) and a big step up from what they are used to do within the aerospace industry. If they are executed 100% as planned, and fairly close to the design goals, yes they would come in cheaper, however the RISK associated is HUGE for both nations. The F-35 10-15 years from now, would be filedided , had its chinks sorted out, and the production lines would be running at full capacity... So the CAPABILITY and COST combined with TIMELINES (IOC 2025, 2030 etc etc) would matter a lot as far as exportability is concerned...I would add the AMCA to the list as well. The main benefit obviously is to the indegenous aerospace industry, which i understand : my argument is only towards the export prospects vis-a-vis the F-35.


    I second Bring_it_on's point about the F-35 being a fully mature aircraft by the 2030s. Even if all goes smoothly for these prospective programs they will be in their early stages at a time when the F-35 will have fully hit its stride. The odds that they will be able to appreciably under-cut the F-35's price is quite low and the F-35 will be a far more mature product.

  10. #10
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    It could be an option for countries seeking freedom from ITAR / US restrictions.

    Thus I would put into the list of potential buyers all the "uncool" countries with some dough. the countries in the "cool" list will continue with the F35s and the ones who like to hang out with the "cool" countries can get some F16 hand-me-downs.

    But of course in the business of "uncool" countries the Chinese J31 will also be breathing down everyone's neck.. as well as possibly a JF17 block 4 with semi stealth features for the price of a VW beetle.

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    Thus I would put into the list of potential buyers all the "uncool" countries with some dough.
    Those countries would have other options which would be direct competitors...Chinese jets, Russian light fighter, Indian AMCA, in addition to these 2 fighters...It may well come to offsets and economic ties...
    Old radar types never die; they just phased array

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    Quote Originally Posted by Geo View Post
    Naturally, ananda, its only hypothetical topic. But... may be, Turkey, South Korea and Indonesia are in relatively good economic condition.
    Agree, that's why I said anything can happen. And it cuts both ways. What I'm getting at, at this moment, what will come out from both program, may not neccesary will be as design says. For KFX/IFX for example, what can be turn out can be just another upgrade FA-50, singgle engine and not twin . This just an example of the program that turn out not something that will be interesting for even second or third tiers Euro Nations.

    After all look at MAKO concept. Not turn many interest on Euro zone. And something just little more updated of that ( Mako), that in the end can still come out from both projects.
    Last edited by ananda; 12th May 2013 at 09:54.

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    It is quite early to talk about future foreign sales of both aircrafts. I belive European producer will boots their market presence with "stealthy" Eurofighter and Rafale derivatives; but Swedens has to stick with gripenNG at least 2-3 decade. But in the end Turkish TF-X can be easily sold to from MidEast to Mid Asian markets; where as KF-X/IF-X could dominate south-east Asia.

    I think European aerospace industry powerful enough to market new competetive fighter aircrafts against up-coming "new generation" figters. But if you look back European UAV industry performance, there is a risk even with superior technologlical capabilities, to create useful solutions.


    For USA, they will concantrate so called 6th generation fighters. I dont see any cheap alternative of F35.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ocay84 View Post
    It is quite early to talk about future foreign sales of both aircrafts. I belive European producer will boots their market presence with "stealthy" Eurofighter and Rafale derivatives; but Swedens has to stick with gripenNG at least 2-3 decade. But in the end Turkish TF-X can be easily sold to from MidEast to Mid Asian markets; where as KF-X/IF-X could dominate south-east Asia.

    I think European aerospace industry powerful enough to market new competetive fighter aircrafts against up-coming "new generation" figters. But if you look back European UAV industry performance, there is a risk even with superior technologlical capabilities, to create useful solutions.


    For USA, they will concantrate so called 6th generation fighters. I dont see any cheap alternative of F35.

    Its quite early, but we can be sure, that the right people in Sokor/Indonesia and Turkey are thinking about future export perspectives. Market potential is one of the important factors for feasibility study.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ocay84 View Post
    It is quite early to talk about future foreign sales of both aircrafts. I belive European producer will boots their market presence with "stealthy" Eurofighter and Rafale derivatives; but Swedens has to stick with gripenNG at least 2-3 decade. But in the end Turkish TF-X can be easily sold to from MidEast to Mid Asian markets; where as KF-X/IF-X could dominate south-east Asia.

    I think European aerospace industry powerful enough to market new competetive fighter aircrafts against up-coming "new generation" figters. But if you look back European UAV industry performance, there is a risk even with superior technologlical capabilities, to create useful solutions.


    For USA, they will concantrate so called 6th generation fighters. I dont see any cheap alternative of F35.

    Stealthy Eurofighter is sci-fi.

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    Europe doesnt need a new fighter in a long time, they need a stealthy UCAV striker and upgraded avionics and sensors on there 4 gen+ fighters.

    The Sensors need to be very very good to make it possible to use of Meteor to its full potential on stealthy AC. i think the sensors of this kind will make "x-band stealth" known to date not as effective....new approach in stealth is needed in 6 gen, and there goes the evolution of weapon development..

    After that, in 2040. who knows?

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sign View Post
    Europe doesnt need a new fighter in a long time
    There is no European Air Force. There is no common defence policy. There are still sovereign european countries, partners with own air forces and own - coordinated - needs.

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    Yes, i too don't think there will be a new European fighter until ~2040,
    A2G UCAV from 2025-2030.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Geo View Post
    There is no European Air Force. There is no common defence policy. There are still sovereign european countries, partners with own air forces and own - coordinated - needs.
    Well, youre right about that. Did i say anything that contradict your statement above?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sign View Post
    Well, youre right about that. Did i say anything that contradict your statement above?
    Basically not, my dear colleague. I only reminded the fact, which is quite often forgotten.

    France has different needs than Romania, UK has different needs than Finland etc., that is what I meant.

    And… not all European countries have 4,5th generation eurocanards – only 9 of them.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Geo View Post
    Basically not, my dear colleague. I only reminded the fact, which is quite often forgotten.

    France has different needs than Romania, UK has different needs than Finland etc., that is what I meant.

    And… not all European countries have 4,5th generation eurocanards – only 9 of them.
    Ofcourse, what i meant with "Europe", i meant, no country in europe needs a 5 gen fighter. Those that have 4gen+ will upgrading those to cope with new threats. And Rafale/EF/Gripen origin countries, which have the most ambitios AF in Europe. Will develop stealthy UCAVs to complement the 4 gen+ for strike and rec. Countries like Romania will probably buy used 3/4 gen fighters or rely on others for air policing.
    Thats my 5 cents...
    Last edited by Sign; 12th May 2013 at 21:58.

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    I'd say non-US/European fighters have a near 0% chance of selling anything in Europe in the same way European fighter manufacturers generally don't get a real look in in North Asian and many South East Asian airforces.

    Politics plays a huge role in things like fighter procurement. Other issues are spares/maintenance support, national interest and local industrial requirements as well as pride.


    I agree with Sign in that countries like Romania will rely on used 4th generation jets (i.e., F-16AM/BM) and then they will operate pathetically small numbers - 8-14 a/c.

    Come 2025-40 the Western Europeans will probably be launching another joint fighter. France might even stick around as their reduced fleet of 225 jets is no longer viable for sustaining fighter production.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thobbes View Post
    I'd say non-US/European fighters have a near 0% chance of selling anything in Europe in the same way European fighter manufacturers generally don't get a real look in in North Asian and many South East Asian airforces.

    Politics plays a huge role in things like fighter procurement. Other issues are spares/maintenance support, national interest and local industrial requirements as well as pride.


    I agree with Sign in that countries like Romania will rely on used 4th generation jets (i.e., F-16AM/BM) and then they will operate pathetically small numbers - 8-14 a/c.

    Come 2025-40 the Western Europeans will probably be launching another joint fighter. France might even stick around as their reduced fleet of 225 jets is no longer viable for sustaining fighter production.
    Maybe France and Germany will do it after all in 2025-2040, Gripen E is good enough for Sweden (with complement of UCAV) until 2040 or even longer.
    The rest will stuck to there 4 gen upgrades, until 2040, maybe a stealth UCAV complement i think.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thobbes View Post
    I'd say non-US/European fighters have a near 0% chance of selling anything in Europe in the same way European fighter manufacturers generally don't get a real look in in North Asian and many South East Asian airforces.
    that's good because Turkey is in Europe. Thus they have access to European markets

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sign View Post
    Maybe France and Germany will do it after all in 2025-2040, Gripen E is good enough for Sweden (with complement of UCAV) until 2040 or even longer.
    The rest will stuck to there 4 gen upgrades, until 2040, maybe a stealth UCAV complement i think.
    I don't think many European air forces will be buying stealth UCAVs unless there's a big change in the global strategic outlook.

    Most European AF are becoming police forces with only limited peace time defence capabilities (aka air policing and humanitarian/civil defence).

    Even the Luftwaffe seems to be heading that way - apparently there's not much of an emphasis on the ground attack role in the Eurofighter wings. After Tornado goes the way of the dodo in 2020, there's only 140 Eurofighters and by the looks of it, the Germans aren't too interested in maintaining any significant offensive capability with them.

    that's good because Turkey is in Europe. Thus they have access to European markets
    I don't think any European state will buy a Turkish fighter aircraft in the next few decades.
    Last edited by thobbes; 13th May 2013 at 23:26.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Y-20 Bacon View Post
    that's good because Turkey is in Europe. Thus they have access to European markets
    Turkey does seem to have a lot of money to invest in other European countries that are struggling economically. However, Turkey is kind of seen as the black sheep of the family when it comes to Europe and there's some resent against them because a lot of jobs were lost to Turkey, which would make any decision to buy Turkey design/made expensive hardware as political suicide. Additionally, most European countries have better relations with the Western European industry, such as that of UK, France, Germany, Spain and Sweden.

    Best regards,

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    And it seems American teen series to be produced by the end of this decade. Then I think there will be fighter gap in global market if Americans dont fund alternative to F35. I think it is good oppurtunity for KF-X and TF-X projects.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ocay84 View Post
    And it seems American teen series to be produced by the end of this decade. Then I think there will be fighter gap in global market if Americans dont fund alternative to F35. I think it is good oppurtunity for KF-X and TF-X projects.
    Yes, I think so.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sheytanelkebir View Post
    It could be an option for countries seeking freedom from ITAR / US restrictions.
    No because the ones that are good enough will have US/European components thus will not be sold to countries without permission from the countries where those components come from. Like they would allow a competing fighter to win sales when they can veto the deal? The ones that don't have US/European components won't be as good.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ocay84 View Post
    And it seems American teen series to be produced by the end of this decade. Then I think there will be fighter gap in global market if Americans dont fund alternative to F35. I think it is good oppurtunity for KF-X and TF-X projects.
    If you look at procurement plans, most countries capable of operating such aircraft are scheduled to have ordered/selected their new fighters by 2020. That covers them for next 30-40 years.

    KF-X/TF-X probably won't be runners in these competitions.
    Last edited by thobbes; 15th May 2013 at 02:36.

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