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Thread: Japan and China edge closer to war

  1. #1
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    Japan and China edge closer to war

    For several months now I've been following the ever escalating conflict in the Far East over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. I had refrained from starting a topic previously as I thought the dispute would blow-over... However tensions are now at ignition point and a full blown attack by the Chinese is now imminent.

    Japan's new prime-minister, Shinzo Abe, (a right-wing nationalist) has pledged to take a much tougher stance on China and for the first time in 10 years increased Japan's historically declining military budget.

    On the other side of the sea, similar rhetoric from China's new communist leaders. Vowing to turn China into a maritime power.

    In December, a Chinese state-owned aircraft tested Japanese radar coverage by flying below 200 ft. By the time it was spotted, "it was too late for a scramble of eight F-15 fighter jets to prove effective".
    Then on January 10th, Japan scrambled more F-15s to intercept another Chinese aircraft. Only for the Chinese to retaliate by sending their own fighter jets to intercept the ones sent to intercept the Chinese aircraft.

    Obama's administration has called for cooler heads in the region, but pressures from the Chinese and Japanese voting public could force their politicians to escalate matters.
    This will be an interesting few months indeed.
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  2. #2
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    Don't fancy Japans chances, with 1-3 Billion Chinese, plus add to that, all that could be recalled from all the Chinese takeaways in G.B, held here in reserve.

    Jim.

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    There is bitter history between these two. Long time rancour not forgotten. The infamous Massacre of Nanking comes to mind. My money is on the Chinese, they're probably itching to repay.

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    I doubt if it wil come to blows.
    No upside (or profit) in it for either side.Japan is still having economic troubles and China is trying to look legit in the eyes of the world.
    Besides, Japan is hopelessly outnumbered.

    It would take the Chinese sailing into Tokyo Bay to get Obama to support Japan militarily.
    There are two sides to every story. The truth is usually somewhere between the two.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lincoln 7 View Post
    Don't fancy Japans chances, with 1-3 Billion Chinese, plus add to that, all that could be recalled from all the Chinese takeaways in G.B, held here in reserve.

    Jim.

    Lincoln .7
    Its not that straightforward, there's no way that any war involving Japan wouldn't also include the USA, which could easily escalate to include the UK.

    IMO any potential conflict would probably be on a similar scale to the Falklands war.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Lincoln 7 View Post
    all that could be recalled from all the Chinese takeaways in G.B, held here in reserve.

    Jim.

    Lincoln .7
    LMAO, Jim, that was quite possibly one of the best lines i have ever read from you, even if unintended

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    If I was fitted with a device best described as a 'I don't give a f*ck-o-meter' it would currently be reading well beyond the red zone--off the scale in fact.
    These are countries far away from Bedfordshire and if a load of orientals want to slaughter each other in droves, then as far as I'm concerned they can get on with.
    Please don't bother disturbing the rest of us though.
    It is better to be born a beggar than a fool.

  8. #8
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    Ah, Young Scott, it was intended. :diablo:

    Jim.
    Lincoln .7
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  9. #9
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    Here's an interesting slant on things.

    http://www.scmp.com/news/china/artic...h-diaoyus-noon

    Even the Taiwanese are getting in on the act. It would be interesting to see how involved the Taiwanese would be prepared to get, in joining their mainland brethren, should the Japanese try to thwart the Chinese designs to reclaim the Diaoyu islands. Dear 'ol Obama, won't know where to 'sit' Go get'm Beijing:diablo:
    "Behold! The Wings of Horus"

  10. #10
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    If I was the USA I would stay out of it or one side or the other would ask for their money back!

    http://www.davemanuel.com/us-national-debt-clock.php
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  11. #11
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    One thing I failed to mention in my initial post. Japan is currently evaluating whether to use warning shots against any further Chinese aircraft flying over their air-space. In response the Chinese have said that they would use these shots as indictment to war.
    So things are definitely on-edge.

    Japan is outnumbered, but the Japanese people want revenge ever since Toyota and Panasonic plants in China were looted and set on fire by Chinese nationalists last year, as well as bricks and eggs being thrown at the Japanese ambassador's car in Beijing. They're also not just about to surrender the islands the government just paid billions for from a private owner. Likewise the Chinese want what they believe to be their islands back.

    It is in America's national interest that Japan successfully defends the islands if there is a war. As China also has disputes with other Indonesian and Philippine islands. If China were to conquer the Japanese islands then there is a potential for them to get trigger happy and invade Indonesia and the Philippines as well. Before you know it China will have a stranglehold on the whole pacific region - not a pleasant thought for the USA.

    Here in Britain I'm sure we all appreciate the situation Japan is in, having experienced similar territorial disputes with Argentina. Personally I hope Japan can keep them.
    Last edited by Matt-100; 24th January 2013 at 21:43.
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  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Andy in Beds View Post
    These are countries far away from Bedfordshire and if a load of orientals want to slaughter each other in droves, then as far as I'm concerned they can get on with it.
    Andy, we are talking about the world's second and third largest economies going to blows with each other. It's hard to see how we won't be affected here in the UK, even if that is economically rather than politically.
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  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by MSR777 View Post
    Here's an interesting slant on things.
    That's even funnier than Lincoln's comment...!!
    Charlie

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    Matt.
    I suspect I may be a shade older than you, and in no way meaning to be condescending this fact has a bearing on why I wrote what I did.
    I grew up during the cold war. In those days, the media used to find all sorts of inventive ways to inform us that we'd be toast by tea-time.
    The Russians/Chinese/someone or other were always going to start something somewhere which would lead to conflagration on a grand scale and the end of mankind. This was very real to many. I remember a lad when I was an apprentice and we were living away from home, getting quite worried that we wouldn't have a chance to get home if it all kicked off. I just rode my motorcycle faster.
    Even today, I sometimes wonder if part of my somewhat fatalistic attitude is caused by growing up against that background--although it's largely because I spend a large amount of my life fighting a form of depression.
    Of course, as ever, nothing happened, and we all lived to tell the tale.

    These days, after a very varied life, I spend my time running a small business. In the last week, it's snowed, the pipes in my workshop are frozen, I can't get bikes delivered or get paid by customers because of the snow, I've effectively lost a week's work for the same reason, I'm trying to sell a house, and buy another house, my ex-wife's (who still remains a friend) Mother has been seriously ill, my brother-in-law has a form of Leukemia and my sister is upset, I have elderly parents, my new partner's son needs re-housing, and the liability insurance is due on the business. Then last Thursday just to cap it all nicely, I had a nasty depressive attack which laid me very low indeed. The only good thing about the last bit is that it coincided with the snow so, I have only really wasted one week and not two. Of course, non of this is hugely unusual in an adult life--and I'm not looking for sympathy. I know you all have your stories to tell, some many times worse than anything I've ever suffered.
    As I said, China and Japan seem to me at least, a very long way from Bedfordshire.
    If they want to kill each other, it's their business, I don't know any of them and care less about them. Personally I doubt they'll go to war, and if they do, there's nothing we can do about it.
    Having been told more than once by the BBC that I was to be imminently atomised, I no longer believe them or worry about it.

    Still, it's not all bad, the Spring will be here in about fourteen months.
    Last edited by Andy in Beds; 25th January 2013 at 06:52.
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  15. #15
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    Andy started how i was going to. Sound more like Cold War sabre rattling and beating of shields to intimidate, provoke but also scare at the same time. The amount of times the Soviet TU-95 Bear`s came well within striking distance of the UK is amazing. Each country knew that if they push the other too far and forced backs to the wall then it wouldn`t take much to pop a nuke over the border. We old`uns grew up with DUCK N COVER but i dont think it would have helped much.
    There may well be the odd missile fired,plane shot down or boat sunk but the likelyhood of all out war is not real becouse either country would suffer in the long run due to outside pressure from the rest of the world. The same reason that the Argi`s haven`t had a go at the Falklands again coz it basically bug gered up the country and brought riots to the streets and was almost brought to its knee`s.
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  16. #16
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    Andy

    Yes. What more is there to say. I am older than you so empathise with just about everything you have said, what you lived through, and what you are now living through, particularly the tribulations of a small business and ailing relatives.

    I rarely read BBC news and for foreign affairs, never.

    Hope things pick up and get sorted soon. Roll on Summer!!
    Charlie

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    Quote Originally Posted by Andy in Beds View Post
    If I was fitted with a device best described as a 'I don't give a f*ck-o-meter' it would currently be reading well beyond the red zone--off the scale in fact.
    These are countries far away from Bedfordshire and if a load of orientals want to slaughter each other in droves, then as far as I'm concerned they can get on with.
    Please don't bother disturbing the rest of us though.
    A faraway country of which we know nothing?
    "Quicquid agas age"

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by charliehunt View Post
    That's even funnier than Lincoln's comment...!!
    As true as I sit here, I really hadn't noticed that.

    Seriously though, IMO, there is a real potential for this situation to become something bigger. I tend to agree that by and large, this is sabre rattling on both sides. Personally, I don't think that I'd put money on it not becoming something greater.

    Communist regimes throughout history, have frequently used nationalism, to legitimise their rule. To these regimes, prestige both at home, and in the eyes of the world, is of very great importance. I think I'm right in saying that the Chinese Communist Party, is the first in history to have any real, significant economic clout. IMO this has been achieved by dumping its core Communist ideology, and adopting a strange mix of unbridled capitalism, and nationalism. This system is now defined by the regime, as 'Socialism with Chinese Characteristics'

    I think we're in for very interesting times, vis-a-vis the Pacific region, and wether the Japanese, or anyone else for that matter, like it or not, there is now the stirring of a new and very powerful 'kid on the block' and I certainly think that the Japanese and their allies, underestimate China at their peril.
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  19. #19
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    Re 14

    Blimey Andy! After reading that little lot, my miserable existence feels a whole lot brighter and better !

    Commiserations. When it's looking blacker than black, try and look for the humour. That and other annoying expressions might offer a crumb or two....

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by jbritchford View Post
    A faraway country of which we know nothing?
    Yes Mr Chamberlain.
    I have no interst whatsoever in either of them.
    A pox on both their houses.

    John.
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    You're right Andy, I am too young to remember the Cold War - but as MSR says I believe there is a real chance things could escalate further over the islands.

    They're small and uninhabited... So in a way, even less significant than the Falklands. I've seen pictures and they're really just large rocks sitting in the ocean. For that reason I doubt China would have any remorse if they took any further actions.

    My news source isn't the BBC, in-fact they along with all the other major news agencies have turned (surprisingly) a blind eye to the drama. The recent troubles were only brought to my attention as this was the lead article in the Economist this week.
    http://www.economist.com/news/asia/2...oser-drums-war

    It's not all doom and gloom, however. As Japan and China continue to cut ties and investment between their two nations, countries (such as the UK) are set to gain as money is redistributed elsewhere. An intense isolated military conflict may also be good for the long term health of the stagnating Japanese economy.

    Although, I fully understand your reasons for not giving a flying-monkeys. You seem to have too much on your plate at the moment to care what some 5'2" men on the other side of the world have to say about each other. I hope you're able to make-back some of the revenue you lost due to the snow, all the best.
    Last edited by Matt-100; 25th January 2013 at 16:38.
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  22. #22
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    Yes, so called 'mainstream media' do seem to have passed this by. My own sources of information on the situation, has been via RT and the main Chinese news network, CCTV, full of Chinese bias, naturally.

    Like others here, I also grew up in a fair chunk of the Cold War. I can remember well the tale my mother told me, of the night back in '62 during the Cuban missile crisis, when she was genuinely frightened, that none of us would wake up in the morning. It was only when I was much older, and the period formed part of our school's history syllabus, that I truly learned what a genuinely dangerous time it was.

    My interest in the Cold War was kindled, and it formed the basis of my course work for my GCE history exam. I became hooked on the subject, and my interest in it, stays with me to this day.

    When I was in my twenties, I visited many of the Socialist countries, including both North Korea (1985) and Albania (1987) The only Socialist countries that I ever felt uneasy in, were Romania, and North Korea, both the embodiment of Orwells 1984.
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    On that particular day of the Cuban crisis, I worked at Brotherhoods, a large engineering Company in Peterborough, and building Money (Notes) printing machines for De La Rue, IIRC it was 3pm, the deadline for the ships to turn away, or else!!. At 2.50. every single machine, or anything that made a noise was shut down, and a whole factory listened to the radio, that was piped through the Tannoy system. no one spoke, it was really spooky. Then, with just seemingly minutes to go, we heard the ships had turned, I saw grown men hug each other and some even cry.
    This was a long time ago, and some of the facts I have stated may be a little way out, however, I remember it well.

    Jim.
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    Wow Jim, that must have been quite an atmosphere to have been in. I was only 4yrs old at the time, so its interesting to hear about it from someone 'who was there' if you get my drift.
    "Behold! The Wings of Horus"

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    Yes, it was. I bet there are a few of us old gits on here who could tell the youth of today, stories they wouldn't believe.
    However, my "Concern" (But I am like Paul 178) is that if they do decide to take each other on, the Americans will come down on the side of the Japs, and you can bet your bottom Dollar, once again, we will be dragged in. Perchance it may well be a good thing that the Army are supposidly losing 5,000 further troops, who, incidently I feel very sorry for, but it may make our politicions think twice prior to jumping in, knowing we just havn't got enough Troops to go around.
    Just my opinion, but it's about time we kept our noses out of other folks troubles, we have enough of our own to worry about.
    Jim.
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  26. #26
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    Haha, I've heard quite a few stories from my own father Jim. Although he said whilst the threat and potential was there, he never truly believed either side would have the balls to do anything stupid.

    This week Hilary Clinton said the US opposed "any unilateral actions that would seek to undermine Japanese administration". But, that said, there's absolutely no way the US would get involved in any conflict. As someone's already mentioned, it would take the Chinese to sail through Tokyo Bay before the international community got involved. Besides, Japan is still a powerful force in the region (their Air Force is of similar size to the RAF)... I doubt they'll have too much trouble plucking off the out of date soviet era Chinese fighters. If the US got involved it could also destabilise the DPRK, and it's hardly 'stable' at the moment

    I don't know why people in this country think we need a large military? We've kept the French on a short leash for the past 200 years...
    Last edited by Matt-100; 26th January 2013 at 18:48.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lincoln 7 View Post
    On that particular day of the Cuban crisis, I worked at Brotherhoods, a large engineering Company in Peterborough, and building Money (Notes) printing machines for De La Rue, IIRC it was 3pm, the deadline for the ships to turn away, or else!!. At 2.50. every single machine, or anything that made a noise was shut down, and a whole factory listened to the radio, that was piped through the Tannoy system. no one spoke, it was really spooky. Then, with just seemingly minutes to go, we heard the ships had turned, I saw grown men hug each other and some even cry.
    This was a long time ago, and some of the facts I have stated may be a little way out, however, I remember it well.

    Jim.
    Lincoln .7
    A particularly "hairy" moment in time, many commentators now believe that it was just sabre rattling, but the facts are that the missile sites were ready in Cuba, missiles were loaded on the Soviet ships heading for Cuba.

    Fairly obviously the USA simply would not tolerate nuclear missiles virtually just off the coast, close enough to void any idea of MAD as a deterrent, look up the status of our V bomber force at that time, aircraft dispersed and loaded with live weapons on standby for rapid launch, the threat certainly felt real and as far as most of can tell was real.

    Remember Kruschev was not an amiable Russion bear, he was given to some belligerent statements and extremely excitable, one rash move was all it needed at that time.

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