Future of Syrian Air Force

[thobbes]

So once Assad goes, what's the future of the Syrian AF?


1. The rebels have claimed 41 Syrian aircraft (mainly destroyed on the ground) lost since the insurgency started. Many more will probably be destroyed by the time the war is over.

2. Officer class is mainly Alawite who will most likely either flee or be persectued after the war.

3. Effective weapons embargo is crippling an already poorly equipped force.

4. Rebels have been attacking air bases. This is causing heavy infrastructure damage.

5. Economy ruined - nuff said.

6. Violence becoming sectarian

Will the fall of Assad also see the destruction of the Syrian Air Force?

[Poliocretes]

The future of the Syrian Air Force will only become apparent once the political situation in Syria sorts itself out. No matter what, however, it will be greatly diminished for the near future, even if Assad remains in power. With the need to rebuild, Syria will not have the money to invest in its air force, which it has long ago neglected in favor of other branches of the military.
The SAF will certainly suffer immensely if an Islamic government, hostile to both the west and Russia, comes to power. An alignment with Russia is more likely, and that will improve the SAF's prospects. But with the cold war over, it will be some time before it becomes a significant force. A western-aligned government will probably not need a strong air force, as such a scenario diminishes the chances of any confrontation with Syria's immediate neighbors. In short, it's hard to see the SAF becoming formidable enough to offer any challenge to either the IDFAF or TuAF, at least in the coming years.

[Tempest414]

Which ever side wins if they want to rebuild the air force at this time the only real model open to them is that of Pakistan and a J-10B - JF-17 mix to support the Mig-29’s already in service and allowing them to off load the Mig 21/23/25 and the SU 22/24 they had already started to replace the trainer fleet with an order for the MFI-17 basic trainer and 36 Yak 130 but they also need to sort out there transport fleet if the 4 Il-76 survive they will need supporting with as many as 10 new light transport types. At this time Syria has no AEWaC platform and its attack helicopter force will also need replacing so all in all a lot of money that will not be around straight away

[Sens]

The future of the Syrian Air Force will only become apparent once the political situation in Syria sorts itself out. No matter what, however, it will be greatly diminished for the near future, even if Assad remains in power. With the need to rebuild, Syria will not have the money to invest in its air force, which it has long ago neglected in favor of other branches of the military.
The SAF will certainly suffer immensely if an Islamic government, hostile to both the west and Russia, comes to power. An alignment with Russia is more likely, and that will improve the SAF's prospects. But with the cold war over, it will be some time before it becomes a significant force. A western-aligned government will probably not need a strong air force, as such a scenario diminishes the chances of any confrontation with Syria's immediate neighbors. In short, it's hard to see the SAF becoming formidable enough to offer any challenge to either the IDFAF or TuAF, at least in the coming years.

We will see an AF similar to that of Jordan/Tunesia/Irak or Libya in the long term whatever we have in mind. For several years future Syria can do with a minimum AF without suffering in security really. Despite intrested claims there is no real hostile danger across the border every day.

[Reddor]

No matter who takes over it is in Syria's best of interest to continue to lean towards Russia as their main supplier. What they do need is more Mig-29s, some more trainers of course, along with an AEW aircraft here or two.

To make matters more difficult for her neighbors I'd say a combination of Russia/China warplanes would best be a nightmare to game plan and defend against. No matter what if one type of system from Country-A is jammed with clutter or taken out it is thus possible for the other system from Country-B to continue on and fight the good fight.

A squadron of 24 of those China made JH-17 type being operated alongside a a pair of ZDK03 AWACs as a Black fleet that is then armed with dirt cheapo PL-5 II short and PL-12 medium missiles can frustrate the best of opposing enemy AF especially if they come with a well trained crew. The look of a opponents pilot when they are expecting a good scrap with the Fulcrums to only have smaller nimble Thunders pop out of nowhere from the corner would most likely be very surprising to say the least.

[Cherry Ripe]

What, no rail-guns and orbital weapons platforms?

Seriously though, when the dust settles in five or six months it will be clear that Syria is an impoverished nation. Assad's regime had been reducing subsidies on fuel and grain over the past few years simply because there is no money in the coffers.

GDP per capita 2010

Jordan $2,600
Syria $2,800
Turkey $5,700
Israel $22,000

There won't be funds to fly huge glistening fleets of supersonic fighters; Gazelles, Mi-17s and L-39s will suffice.

The only conflict is likely to intra-national between factions and tribes, with the possibility of tension in the north with Turkey over disputed water course projects.

[seahawk]

It will surely be interesting. Russia and China had close ties to the old regime, so it is questionable if the political will to continue buying from them will be there. I could see Syria turning towards France in future or maybe a similar deal like Egypt. US FMS for a peace treaty with Israel.

[Vatche]

There is no end in site for this conflict and the current air force is quite active at present. So don't expect anything or any major overhaul in the near future.