China awaits fighter export breakthrough

[Italy]

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...hrough-373313/

Basically article says Chinese exports for aircraft not as great as it should've been, especially with JF-17.

For example tiny Italy has built more Aermacchi MB-326 than K-8s and exported it to more countries

I didn't understand why they chose FTC-2000 over L-15. but the article made more sense of it. FTC could be a better export story than L-15

[Twinblade]

The article makes a valid point. The countries that are looking for a very basic fighter are opting for trainers.

[Italy]

The article makes a valid point. The countries that are looking for a very basic fighter are opting for trainers.

trainers do tend to have lower fuel capacities.. out of all the ones on the market right now, which ones have the best range?

[wilhelm]

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/art...hrough-373313/

Basically article says Chinese exports for aircraft not as great as it should've been, especially with JF-17.

For example tiny Italy has built more Aermacchi MB-326 than K-8s and exported it to more countries

I didn't understand why they chose FTC-2000 over L-15. but the article made more sense of it. FTC could be a better export story than L-15

MB-326 first flight 1957. No longer in production.

K-8 first flight 1990, still in production.

I'm failing to see any meaningful comparison here?

[Goldust]

J-20 and J-10B are not for export. JF-17 and early J-10A are for export.

[Erkokite]

I thought the J-10b is going to be exported to Pakistan as the FC-20?

[Italy]

MB-326 first flight 1957. No longer in production.

K-8 first flight 1990, still in production.

I'm failing to see any meaningful comparison here?

J-7 and variants was in production far longer than the F-5 and being sold still, but they are still in the same class

[Goldust]

I thought the J-10b is going to be exported to Pakistan as the FC-20?

JF-17 is exported to Pakistan. NO such thing as FC-20

[MSphere]

JF-17 is exported to Pakistan. NO such thing as FC-20

FC-20 is said to be future designation of PAF J-10s (if they ever get exported there)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chengdu_J-10

[JSR]

K-8 has US/Ukranian engine. in basic trainer engine alone cost half the price. Hondgu aviation has loss this quarter.
L-15 airframe cost $15m.

http://www.9abc.net/index.php/archives/77900
Everbright Securities analyst Yun Min is in its research report is expected next decade L15 demand of about 700, including 400 domestic and 300 foreign. In accordance with 100 million yuan per frame to calculate the L15 over the next decade will bring 70 billion of revenue.

i dont think China can manage profitable exports this decade.
they are trying to export J-17 wit foreign engine which they are not buying. so it will be unprofitable and redundant effort.
Su-33 clone will be another loss making enterprize.and not sure it can reliabily operate in carrier environment with light weight structure.

[Goldust]

FC-20 is said to be future designation of PAF J-10s (if they ever get exported there)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chengdu_J-10

well there's no official source

[thobbes]

K8's done quite well given low sales of anything military this decade.

That graph is wrong too - Egypt has acquired 120 K-8s including 80 licence produced.



As for the JF-17, it is daft to assume it can compete in anything but third world markets.

The US nearly has a monopoly on Western fighter procurment - either via the teen series or via the F-35. Even comparing the Mirage 2000 to the Teen series shows complete US domination of the Western market in the 1980s and 1990s with the French fighter a medium player. Other than Saudi Arabia, Tornado was not even a player.


The Russians have a borderline monopoly on cheap heavy fighters, i.e. the Flanker series.

The rest of the market has been struggling :

MiG-29 - sales to Indian Navy as well as "marginal countries ala Myanmar, Sudan, Yemen. Prospects not so good.

JAS-39 Gripen - currently exported 88 aircraft to 5 customers (includings Switzerland) despite it's cheapness. Not a single order for 30 aircraft.

Rafale - 1 export sale to India (126 aircraft).

Eurofighter - 1 small sale to Austria and 1 large to Saudi Arabia. Aircraft numbers are same as Gripen (87 export orders).

Now compare that to the F-35.

Even older US aircraft are doing well:

F-15 - three sales to major airforces for a total of 168 aircraft (Singapore, South Korea, Saudi Arabia).

F-16 - ongoing sales to medium airforces as well as attrition replacements - Pakistan (34), Morroco (24), Oman (24), Iraq (36), Poland (48) - 166 off the top of my head in the last few years. And previously in the 2000s we had big orders from Israel (102 F-16I) and UAE (80 F-16E/F).

F/A-18E/F is the only export dud with a mere 24 aircraft sold to Australia.

I read somewhere that fighter sales are down 90% since 1990. Furthermore many smaller operators are still flying 1970-80s vintage MiG-21 and F-5 types.

Many others, especially in Africa, are out of the business of flying expensive jets.


So the Chinese don't really have a competitive product or an an available market.

- Their old market (Africa, Albania) is pretty much non-existant except Pakistan.

- Anyone even close to the US sphere is on board for either Teen series or F-35s.

- Non-US affiliated buyers with money go for Flankers.

- Anyone else has a crowded bunch of suppliers after them - Gripen, Eurofighter, Rafale, F-15/F-16/F/A-18E/F, MiG-29, Su-27/30.

So the Chinese jets are stuffed.

[JSR]

There is difference between profitable and non profitable exports.
BAE only manage to deliver 24 EF to Saudi in 6 years of contract. that is extremely slow progress for in production jet. BAE signed the contract in pounds but pounds has gone down by 30% against dollar.
Rafale export contract hasnt been signed yet and we dont what price and offsets will be required for AESA standard Rafale.
JSF contracts except for some test/training aircraft hasnt been signed.
Any contract that requires fixed price and long implementation time is potentially a loser. It will be another matter of selling JSF production license upfront to countries like Japan.
Rafale engine is only used in Rafale with very low volume.
MIG-29 engines are now spread to upgrades, selling RD-33 license to India, J-17 and all MIG-29Ks. This greater production allows more profitable sells.
I have doubt Chinese can manage and afford Su-33 for single carrier.
building more J-17 is not going to lower the price of J-10 for PLAAF either.

[TR1]

Flanker's ain't cheap, unless you go for an older variant.

[Distiller]

For symbolic air policing a late F-7 will do for the next 50 years, as will a K-8 for shooting up "rebels". Problem is that a good number of low cost customers couldn't even afford or operate a P-51 ...

[Fedaykin]

I find this thread rather bemusing, Chinese defence exports have been very solid over the years.

The K-8 has been sold onto twelve different airforces, they might be third tier nations but the sales figures are nothing to sniff at.

The J-7 is still getting export sales, CAC have some in test as we speak:

http://china-defense.blogspot.co.uk/...se-of-j-7.html

Actually amongst third tier airforces the market for a supersonic point defence fighter has been pretty much ceded to China. For many a small nation basic maintenance, a turbojet engine, basic fire control radar, WVR only capability and no fancy computerised maintenance system is perfect! I would argue if Northrop Grumman put a basic J85 powered F-5 back into production they might find some buyers.

Looking at other types that China produces like the J-10 and J-11 production is tied up servicing the huge Chinese airforce re-equipment program. JF-17 will see exports soon outside of Pakistan and I think interest will particularly pick up once the WS-13 turbofan is up to spec. Egypt is certainly keen on it as a logical replacement for their older Migs especially with local production. I also wouldn't be surprised if it sees a sale in South America. Once the WS-10 is up to spec on the J-10B and Chinese re-equipment needs ease up we should see some exports of that as well.

The thing is I don't think the Chinese themselves see themselves in an aerospace defence export race with other nations. They have aircraft that they will sale on favourable terms no questions asked. I don't see any reason to criticise that.

[MSphere]

I find this thread rather bemusing, Chinese defence exports have been very solid over the years.

You need to look at the overall amount, not just aircraft numbers, though. So far the biggest single deal, EAF order of 80 K-8 trainers was worth $347 million and that was back in 1999.

The largest recent deal was $251 million from Nigeria for 15 Chengdu F-7N/FT-7N in 2010, followed by $93.6 million deal with Bangladesh in 2006. These are quite modest numbers by any standard, let alone for an economy like China.

[seahawk]

When they have their own modern engines the sales will come.

[Fedaykin]

Yes MSphere but again why is that such a big deal? Export sales have been solid over the last couple of decades, all those sales have been to third tier airforces of cheap easy to maintain jets.

The thrust of the thread seems to be "why hasn't China had a big sale of its top tier fighters"?! The answer to me is rather prosaic: China is re-equipping its airforce and all its top tier fighters are needed for that. I don't see export sales of J-10 or J-11 being the greatest priority at the moment when China has regiment after regiment of legacy types to replace.

I don't think its fair to include China is some form of forum top trumps "we have sold more then you" when the clear priority for China is domestic force modernisation.

Selling K-8 or J-7 even at a low ebb does little to harm Chinas balance of trade, my guess especially for the J-7 is with warehoused components the profit of building a few to sell to a third world African nation even at such a low price is almost pure profit, now that is all good news for CAC. I think JF-17 has some very strong export possibilities in the next five years, ironically the major bar for export of that type is Pakistans force modernisation needs.

I am bemused over peoples desire (especially from certain lets say Russian quarters) to assume there is some major problem with what China has on offer. Low tier aircraft sales including helicopters are doing very nicely on the export market and high tier production is almost entirely marked for induction into the China airforce. Five years down the line when J-10 and JF-17 production slots can be freed up for export will give us a better idea of what the score is with Chinese exports.

[JSR]

The thing is I don't think the Chinese themselves see themselves in an aerospace defence export race with other nations. They have aircraft that they will sale on favourable terms no questions asked. I don't see any reason to criticise that.

where you get this idea they are not trying hard. see ARJ-21/C919 and turobprops like Y series etc. Aerospace is huge investments with little output. and if PLAAF stop buying J-10/J-11 at some future time. it will become unprofitable immediately to build them due to low volume.
It is not like Sukhoi selling license for billions upfront and than colllecting even more on maintaining them from likes of India/China.
it certainly cannot match the billions of revenues that were collected on IL-76/An-124 commerical operations. You can pretty much see the result. we will soon see new generation An-124 in similar way.
Chinese aerospace revenue streams is pretty low.

[Fedaykin]

Where did you get the impression that I think they are not trying hard JSR?!

I am saying that export sales of helicopters, low tier fighters, trainers and you can throw in light transport types are solid. High tier fighter production appears to be earmarked for domestic force modernisation. As for when China stops buying J-10 and J-11...CAC and SAC are hardly going to close down. They will be deep into production of whatever types are chosen to replace the J-10 and J-11. Defence aerospace is a strategic industry for China so they are hardly going to let their main production facilities go down the pan.

You appear to be really eager to big up Russian production and some kind of soon to be seen collapse of the Chinese aerospace sector through lack of work. Considering China has had an aerospace sector in constant growth for the last twenty to thirty years and significant ongoing domestic military and civilian needs I don't think they are in any threat of collapse!

Certainly Russia has had a modest income stream from maintenance and modernisation of types like the il76 and AN124 plus various fighter contracts over the years but is it fair to compare that to Chinas ongoing domestic aerospace growth? For that matter how does Russian domestic aerospace maintenance and modernisation sector compare to a Western nation like America? How many more iL76 and AN124 going to be produced in comparison to Airbus a330?

People need to be a bit more nuanced about this debate rather then use it as a game of web one-upmanship.

[MadRat]

I would argue if Northrop Grumman put a basic J85 powered F-5 back into production they might find some buyers.

Good chance, or at least Cessna A-37.

[Italy]

The rest of the market has been struggling :

MiG-29 - sales to Indian Navy as well as "marginal countries ala Myanmar, Sudan, Yemen. Prospects not so good.

JAS-39 Gripen - currently exported 88 aircraft to 5 customers (includings Switzerland) despite it's cheapness. Not a single order for 30 aircraft.

Rafale - 1 export sale to India (126 aircraft).

Eurofighter - 1 small sale to Austria and 1 large to Saudi Arabia. Aircraft numbers are same as Gripen (87 export orders).

Now compare that to the F-35.

Even older US aircraft are doing well:

F-15 - three sales to major airforces for a total of 168 aircraft (Singapore, South Korea, Saudi Arabia).

F-16 - ongoing sales to medium airforces as well as attrition replacements - Pakistan (34), Morroco (24), Oman (24), Iraq (36), Poland (48) - 166 off the top of my head in the last few years. And previously in the 2000s we had big orders from Israel (102 F-16I) and UAE (80 F-16E/F).

F/A-18E/F is the only export dud with a mere 24 aircraft sold to Australia.

I read somewhere that fighter sales are down 90% since 1990. Furthermore many smaller operators are still flying 1970-80s vintage MiG-21 and F-5 types.

Many others, especially in Africa, are out of the business of flying expensive jets.


So the Chinese don't really have a competitive product or an an available market.

- Their old market (Africa, Albania) is pretty much non-existant except Pakistan.

- Anyone even close to the US sphere is on board for either Teen series or F-35s.

- Non-US affiliated buyers with money go for Flankers.

- Anyone else has a crowded bunch of suppliers after them - Gripen, Eurofighter, Rafale, F-15/F-16/F/A-18E/F, MiG-29, Su-27/30.

So the Chinese jets are stuffed.

I agree with many t hings but Gripen i don't consider cheap. maybe cheap to operate for sure but its unit cost is about the same as a Flanker.

[TR1]

Yes MSphere but again why is that such a big deal?

Because people keep hyping the JF-17 as the next MiG-21, when it has done nothing to achieve this goal.

[Fedaykin]

I agree to a degree TR1 the JF-17 has been hyped by some people to be the next Mig-21 but the fact is the aircraft has barely entered service with its primary customer nation and production is pretty much locked into servicing their needs. Its way to early to judge if it will be a sales success especially as it hasn't got a domestic engine yet.

Again this whole thread was started up on the strange argument that China is in some form of crisis over lack of export sales of its newer top tier types. I would argue that Chinese defence export sales of aircraft have been perfectly solid over the years and their new generation fighters are locked into servicing domestic needs. As for the JF-17 it is way too early to judge its success, it appears to have strong interest in certain parts of the world and in a few years time we should get a better idea of how well its doing.

Armchair enthusiasts over-hyping the JF-17 might be irksome TR1 but that doesn't mean we have to write it off as a failure when its so early into its production life or somehow think that the Chinese aerospace industry is in a state of near collapse when evidence shows otherwise. I would also argue that there has been an over-hyping of Russian aerospace output by some people in a rather nationalistic defence in the face of a rapidly growing Chinese industry. How many times has this kind of thread descended into arguments of how super duper fantastic the Russian aerospace industry is in comparison to China...

[Italy]

I agree to a degree TR1 the JF-17 has been hyped by some people to be the next Mig-21 but the fact is the aircraft has barely entered service with its primary customer nation and production is pretty much locked into servicing their needs. Its way to early to judge if it will be a sales success especially as it hasn't got a domestic engine yet.

Again this whole thread was started up on the strange argument that China is in some form of crisis over lack of export sales of its newer top tier types. I would argue that Chinese defence export sales of aircraft have been perfectly solid over the years and their new generation fighters are locked into servicing domestic needs. As for the JF-17 it is way too early to judge its success, it appears to have strong interest in certain parts of the world and in a few years time we should get a better idea of how well its doing.

Armchair enthusiasts over-hyping the JF-17 might be irksome TR1 but that doesn't mean we have to write it off as a failure when its so early into its production life or somehow think that the Chinese aerospace industry is in a state of near collapse when evidence shows otherwise. I would also argue that there has been an over-hyping of Russian aerospace output by some people in a rather nationalistic defence in the face of a rapidly growing Chinese industry. How many times has this kind of thread descended into arguments of how super duper fantastic the Russian aerospace industry is in comparison to China...

its probably the reason why they shut down the J-7 line in order to push customers to go for the JF-17 instead..

the article says the reasons for its failure is because of its Russian engines, but nearly all of the current J-7 customers are already flying Russian types and/or have good relations with Russia. Even Pakistan is able to fly them and its relation with Russia are not great but no bad.

[thobbes]

Because people keep hyping the JF-17 as the next MiG-21, when it has done nothing to achieve this goal.

The only problem is the market for the MiG-21 level jet (as well as F-5 and basic Mirage III/5) no longer exists:

1. USSR sponsored Warpac members - gone due to conversion to NATO and general disarmament.
2. Africa - mainly gone due to economic issues.
3. India - gone due to upgrade to high tier aircraft ala Su-30 and maybe Rafale.
4. Middle East - mainly gone due to Libya and Syria being in state of upheaval and Algeria upgrading to higher tier aircraft (again Su-30).
5. Asia - again switching to higher tier markets (F-15, Su-30). North Korea under embargo.

I don't see Latin America as a market. That market is mainly western with a few exceptions. And I can't see oil rich Venezuela or cash strapped Cuba buying Chinese jets.

That leaves very few operators able to afford the JF-17 or who are politically motviated to acquire them. In fact it's mainly the usual suspects:

1. Egypt - replace MiG-21/F-7/Mirage 5/F-4. That's some 200 aircraft and Egypt can't afford adequate F-16 types or anything Western (unless it's US subsidised).

2. Pakistan - of course.

3. Myanmar - replace A-5/F-7

4. Nigeria - once they blow the current batch of F-7s

5. Iran - potentially a big market if Iran ever decides to procure foreign built aircraft. Potential of a couple of hundred aircraft to replace F-4/F-5/J-7/Mirage F1.

6. Bangladesh - replace F-7.

7. Sudan

8. Zimabwe - if they can afford it.


But that's kind of it.

[BlackArcher]

The only problem is the market for the MiG-21 level jet (as well as F-5 and basic Mirage III/5) no longer exists:

1. USSR sponsored Warpac members - gone due to conversion to NATO and general disarmament.
2. Africa - mainly gone due to economic issues.
3. India - gone due to upgrade to high tier aircraft ala Su-30 and maybe Rafale.
4. Middle East - mainly gone due to Libya and Syria being in state of upheaval and Algeria upgrading to higher tier aircraft (again Su-30).
5. Asia - again switching to higher tier markets (F-15, Su-30). North Korea under embargo.

Correction as far as India is concerned- the IAF still has a large pending requirement for replacing its MiG-21 class fighters and the Tejas Mk1, Mk2 and possibly a future Mk3 will all be slated to fill in the light fighter role for the IAF.

[Freehand]

I can see a potential operator for the JF-17 in Argentina, perhaps even Ecuador and Peru. This would all hinge on economic factors. The FAE's Cheetah fighters might have another ten years left. The same could be said for the FAP MiG-29's. FAA Mirages and A-4AR's could be replaced at any time.

[JSR]

Where did you get the impression that I think they are not trying hard JSR?!

You wrote that they don’t need exports since they are filling domestic order as I said export will become unprofitable once they stop selling J-10/J-11 to PLAAF.
See Boeing F-15 example. Since USAF has stopped ordering new F-15s. Its export price has zoomed to Eurocanard level despite more than 1500 F-15 built. And there is no way J-10/J-11 can be sold at such inflated prices.

I am saying that export sales of helicopters, low tier fighters, trainers and you can throw in light transport types are solid. High tier fighter production appears to be earmarked for domestic force modernisation. As for when China stops buying J-10 and J-11...CAC and SAC are hardly going to close down. They will be deep into production of whatever types are chosen to replace the J-10 and J-11. Defence aerospace is a strategic industry for China so they are hardly going to let their main production facilities go down the pan.

Have you consider engines/Avionics/components in so called low tier exports. - I am not saying CAC/SAC will close down after J-10/J-11 but they will become even larger burden on the state due to low volume and little export prospects of 5G fighters.

You appear to be really eager to big up Russian production and some kind of soon to be seen collapse of the Chinese aerospace sector through lack of work. Considering China has had an aerospace sector in constant growth for the last twenty to thirty years and significant ongoing domestic military and civilian needs I don't think they are in any threat of collapse!

constant growth or constant debt with constant recapitalization from state. See half a million employess of AVIC.

Certainly Russia has had a modest income stream from maintenance and modernisation of types like the il76 and AN124 plus various fighter contracts over the years but is it fair to compare that to Chinas ongoing domestic aerospace growth? For that matter how does Russian domestic aerospace maintenance and modernisation sector compare to a Western nation like America? How many more iL76 and AN124 going to be produced in comparison to Airbus a330?

There will be more than 4000 D-30 thanks IL-76 operations. There will be 1000 PS-90. and huge amount of PD-XX will come online in due course. Russian aviation sector is creating long term profitability starting from raw materials like Titanium to down stream Airline and chopper firms.
A330 sales are good for EADS & there suppliers but it does not mean it is good for EU as its sales to Middleasern airlines are killing EU airline industry. No one in EU can match Aeroflot/Volga Denpr profits despite using inefficient aircrafts in the portfolio. There will be no commercial competitor to IL-76/An-124 from China or West.

People need to be a bit more nuanced about this debate rather then use it as a game of web one-upmanship.

I look at percentage component in each aviation product and its original source of IP. For example 70% of components of An-148/158 series will come from Russia. And 80% of An-124 at this point.
There is no way 70% of components of A330 will come from France or B787 coming from US at this point. Chinese export product has dubious component source. . As I mentioned before only low tier stuff sells because they have been upgraded with foreign components and engines. Even J-7 has western components like radar. J-17 has western ejection seat.

http://www.aviationtoday.com/av/topstories/10382.html
Rockwell Collins on XAC’s MA60