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Thread: Israel and Iran...

  1. #1
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    Israel and Iran...

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-17115643


    Interesting reading.

    F-15s and -16s (with many upgrades) vs. SA-15s, SA-5s, some Fulcrums and some old Tomcats.

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by Amiga500 View Post
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-17115643


    Interesting reading.

    F-15s and -16s (with many upgrades) vs. SA-15s, SA-5s, some Fulcrums and some old Tomcats.
    Yep, when I want a analysis of anything related to modern warfare my first port of call is the BBC, the same BBC that thinks anything of soviet origin that flys is a 'Mig' and that anything with tracks on is a tank

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    Much of the information in the webpage being cited is from Douglas Barrie at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
    Mercurius Cantabrigiensis

  4. #4
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    Israel was in the summer of 2012 is likely to attack Iran. However, this attack on Iran is likely to hazardous in case of another attack. Israel Hezbollah war begin again...

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    Quote Originally Posted by raptor2019 View Post
    Israel was in the summer of 2012 is likely to attack Iran. However, this attack on Iran is likely to hazardous in case of another attack. Israel Hezbollah war begin again...
    Didn't work out to well for Hezbollah last time did it though.







    I dioubt Isreali is bothered.

  6. #6
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    I think it's the final goal.. Hamas and Hezbollah have been quiet in recent years.. perhaps too quiet.. for Israel with its tremendously developed military industrial complex, peace becomes unbearably expensive. They are in need for some war..

  7. #7
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    Few thoughts:

    1. It does not meet the objective to only attempt to delay the Iranian nuclear program from the West / Israel's perspective

    2. People are not factoring in the possibility of a prolonged air campaign by Israel against Iran

    3. People are not factoring in that UAVs can play a new and revolutionary role in such attacks, perhaps even being the main strike element of an attack

    4. Not factoring in Georgia and other places (possibly Eastern parts of Africa) Israel hides some planes in

    5. The reaction from Iran is predictable and would give the US easy excuse to enter the fray. That may be reason enough for Israel to strike... and let the US deal with the aftermath.

    6. Iran's ballistic missile force is a factor. But its been a big factor for too long. I think that the layered missile shield is mature at this point. I know an Iraqi who used to work in the Green Zone, and he recalls seeing large lasers successfully shooting down anything that projected close, including mortars.

    I would be happy to hear the detailed views of Mercurious, MSphere and other senior members on the possible means and manner of an attack by Israel / US on Iran.

  8. #8
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    Thread cleaned up.

    As always, trolling isn't welcome. Nopia will not be discussing with you guys for some time..
    Regards,

    Frank

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    Leaving the political issues aside, the biggest challenge here is the logistics IMO. It's all well and good having F16I/F15I, but air refuelers are likely to be the real stumbling block. It will be interesting to see if other "interested parties" offer some invisible refueling support to the Israeli strikers... I don't think Iranian air defences are too big an issue unless they are able to keep a vast force on alert which I doubt they would be able to do. They may even get some kills, but I'm sure Israel is perfectly happy to take some losses to achieve the objective!

  10. #10
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    Just the USA has the capability to stop the Iranian atomic program by military force for sure. Israel has just the military capability to delay that program for a limited time only. Maybe the Iranian reaction to that will force the USA to follow the Israeli path. That looming option exercise some rising political pressure on the Iran already. At the moment all politicans still hope for a change of mind in the Iran before time runs out for that. Without the temporary support of a country close to the Iran and the USA taking a blind eye nothing can happen about that at all. China and Russia have nothing serious to fear from an atomic Iran when facing other atomic powers for decades already. They are looking into their national intrests at first and what the present Iran has to offer about that. A behavior making the military option against the Iran more likely.

  11. #11
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    Would the air refuellers be able to stay out of Iranian SAM range? Or would a quite significant SEAD effort be required?


    If the Israelis lost the tankers, they'd lose the lot.

  12. #12
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    Me thinks China and Russia will say 'hands off syria, and we will handle crazy iranians'. Iran will not survive widespred oil sanctions, refusing to supplying britain and france is rubbish because they importing next to no iranian oils. It giant game of bluf and counter-blufs israelis know it- they will have alredy acted- they practise for several years already over mediteranean sea and flying from turkish bases with full complements of supporting aircrafts.Even saudi arabs ready to help! How he going to stop B2s from US?!:diablo:
    Not even ahmedinerjaadi that crazy that he self-destruct himself and entire country!! He knows that what his enemies are wanting, he watch revolution sweeping north afrika moslem nations with terror- his domestic situation already very week- he staring into abyss now hoping Russia and China help with political face saving and China and India with long-terms oil contracts.

    Sorry maybe off-topic but military action not likely, I thinks anyways.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Amiga500 View Post
    Would the air refuellers be able to stay out of Iranian SAM range? Or would a quite significant SEAD effort be required?

    If the Israelis lost the tankers, they'd lose the lot.
    The tankers don't need to go very near Iran. The problem is the tankers need to wait, perhaps over Saudi, which makes turning a blind eye rather harder for them. The Israelis don't have the numbers to start attacking air defences except in "self-defence" of the strike package(s).

    Even without the tankers they could still divert to one of the Arab countries. It would be a big issue, but they'd probably get the planes/pilots back.

  14. #14
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    But how on earth can the israelis start a war with Iran?

    I can only see a pre-emptive strike on nuclear facilities much like Op.Opera back in 81(82?).

    How could they stage something close to a aerial campaign other than a couple of missions, if they have to cross Jordanian and/or irakian, lebanese, syrian, saudi, turkish airspace to get to Iran?!?
    Despite US influence in Jordan and (now) Irak, i don't believe these countries will ever open their airspace (today nor in near future) to israeli aircraft attacking Iran...


    Abraços

  15. #15
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    They only have to cross Jordanian airspace and that is a simple matter. Iraq is free airspace.

    In addition, they could do a commando op like they did in Africa and temporarily take over an abandoned Iraqi airfield.

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    Do the Isralies have the large "bunker buster" bombs?

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    Quote Originally Posted by p_shadow View Post
    How could they stage something close to a aerial campaign other than a couple of missions, if they have to cross Jordanian and/or irakian, lebanese, syrian, saudi, turkish airspace to get to Iran?!?
    Abraços
    Two simultaneous missions could take out two targets, this would stall Iran's programme for a very long period. Several of such missions could effectively wipe out the programme, though everyone has their own opinion on how much needs to be destroyed to reach each threshold!

    @PLA-MKII
    Thats true, but I think taking over an airfield would be a step too far, and probably unnecessary. They may overfly Iraq, but I don't expect anything more than that.

    @19K11
    They do!

  18. #18
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    What tankers does Israel have?

    I don't think Netanyahu can count on Obama's support.
    There are two sides to every story. The truth is usually somewhere between the two.

  19. #19
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    Several Boeing 707s, bought second hand & modified locally, & some KC-130s.
    Juris praecepta sunt haec: honeste vivere, alterum non laedere, suum cuique tribuere.
    Justinian

  20. #20
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    It's been some time since we've had an admin that would support such a strike. Reagan was probably the last true supporter. I personally think the hidden campaign on the ground has thwarted most of the threat. The problem is NK, Russia, and China subverting their campaign against the Iranian scientists by supplying fresh uranium and training. You have to remember the bigger picture here, the Iranians are largely Shia and counteract Sunni expansion. Contrary to what many believe, the most aggressive expansion going on in Islam is from the Sunni side of the faith. And it is from these the radicals recruit their stooges to carry out their campaign. They recruit the poorest of the poor, educate the smartest ones, indoctrinate them at the same time, and send them out. This is the threat that America defends against right now, not the Shia. In reality, Iran is but a side show.

    I'd be more worried about an October movement by this admin to try to get reelected.
    Go Huskers!

  21. #21
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    A limited Israeli strike has the purpose to break the fear barrier about a military solution should the need arise for that some day. The Iranians are trapped by their own claims about that.

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    Another news story on this topic:


    http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/N...aspx?id=258664

    So, how many GBU-28 can the F-15I realistically carry?

  23. #23
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    One, though the Israelis might have modified their F-15I fleet to carry more.
    How can less be more? It's impossible. More is more.
    Yngwie Malmsteen

  24. #24
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    @eagle
    I can't see them modifying the F15I to carry more than one munition, any spare capacity would be best used for fuel. If they want to hit a target harder it would be more effective to stagger the strikes into two closely separated waves.

  25. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by J Boyle View Post
    What tankers does Israel have?

    I don't think Netanyahu can count on Obama's support.
    4-8 KC-707s.

    Quote Originally Posted by swerve View Post
    Several Boeing 707s, bought second hand & modified locally, & some KC-130s.
    KC-130s can only refuel helicopters though since the IAF uses boom and receptacle refueling.

  26. #26
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    There is also the possibility for buddy refueling to take some of the strain from the tankers, since only a small part of the air force will actually be in the strike packages.

  27. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by ppp View Post
    There is also the possibility for buddy refueling to take some of the strain from the tankers, since only a small part of the air force will actually be in the strike packages.
    Not in this case. They don't use probe and drogue refueling.

  28. #28
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    Israel cannot afford a major air campaign over Iran, and I believe only foot on the ground will stop the Iranian nuclear program for good.

    A route through Iraq is possible right now since they no longer have a air force, and since the US left they are no longer obligated to protect Iraqui air space. So should Israel decide to strike they need to do it soon.

    I don't see SA & co offering open support to Israel, so the best option in my opinion would be to use long range ballistic and cruise missiles strike. That's surely why Israel tested a ballistic missile recently. Now how accurate and effective can they be ?
    The recent deployment to Italy was surely a training for long range mission, but still, I would not think Iran unable to retaliate.
    After what happened to the US drone I would not put much faith in them been 100% effective.

    The major problem for Israel is not their capability to send a strike package to Iran but to put in place SAR missions should any of their pilots be shot. And I don't think they can. So I don't believe they will go into Iran air space. If they cannot attack Iran with stand off weapons, they won't, and since Iran has strategic depth, they can't. Delaying the program will be much safer through covert action rather than open war. Stopping the program will take much more than just a few strikes.
    “Nothing is impossible, the word itself says 'I'm possible'!”

  29. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mildave View Post

    A route through Iraq is possible right now since they no longer have a air force, and since the US left they are no longer obligated to protect Iraqui air space. So should Israel decide to strike they need to do it soon.
    Really?! They would have to go through Jordan or Syria as well! Nothing would unite the Arab nations more then the Israelis going on a military expedition through several Muslim states! There is no way the Israeli army could fight itself through all that and protect its logistics trail. This isn't like Suez or the six day war it would be an utter bloodbath.
    Because sometimes in life we need a bit of fun

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  30. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fedaykin View Post
    Really?! They would have to go through Jordan or Syria as well! Nothing would unite the Arab nations more then the Israelis going on a military expedition through several Muslim states! There is no way the Israeli army could fight itself through all that and protect its logistics trail. This isn't like Suez or the six day war it would be an utter bloodbath.
    They could do it. Jordan is not to be feared, and Syria well, there is a reason why the west is currently helping the "free innocent civilian pacifist protesters" using anti tank missiles...
    Israel could try and hide its strike force beneath a commercial jet or fly in such formation that nobody would know they are around and how many they are etc until its too late. Of course coming back home after the strikes would be much much more difficult. I think it's possible but it wont be done because such strike would not achieve much while risking a lot.
    “Nothing is impossible, the word itself says 'I'm possible'!”

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