Chapter 1 - The Soviet Planning To Defeat The SR 71 Program :https://sites.google.com/site/sr71xm...oviet-planning
Key Publishing Forum: http://forum.keypublishing.com/showthread.php?t=115044
Chapter 2 - MiG 25 RB X YF 14 Tomcat II Over Sinai in 1973 :https://sites.google.com/site/sr71xm...over-the-sinai
Key Publishing Forum: http://forum.keypublishing.com/showthread.php?t=115178
Chapter 3 - MiG 25P to MiG 31A , From SHADOW to DARKNESS :https://sites.google.com/site/sr71xm...ow-to-darkness
Key Publishing Forum: http://forum.keypublishing.com/showthread.php?t=115390
Chapter 4 - SR 71 Blackbird, The Legacy of Murphy's Law : https://sites.google.com/site/sr71xm...phy-law-legacy
Key Publishing Forum: http://forum.keypublishing.com/showthread.php?t=119286
Chapter 5 - MiG 31 Foxhound Vs. SR 71 Blackbird , 007 At Service of the Soviet Union: NEXT
Key Publishing Forum : NEXT
SR 71 AGAINST MOSCOW - JUDGED BY MURPHY LAW
The humble purpose of this page will be to analyze the planning of the Soviet Union in several aspects to defeat the SR 71 program . With its goal shall be important understanding the highly complex and still secret fighters as: MiG 25P Foxbat, MiG 31 Foxhound and even the SR 71 Blackbird. The MiG 25P and SR 71 its no more in active service however have been keeping in the retirement many of its capabilities and characteristics. Even in the present days the secret of the mechanism that allowed codified the messages used by Germany during Second World War, well-known as ENIGMA, it is still classified as secret.
The description of the Soviet Planning and the consequences of this events will be detailed in seven chapters. Each chapter in its specific file has been written with objective to provide a simple view of those historical events and either in several aspects hypothetical, once the SR 71 program and either the MiG 25P and MiG 31B/BS programs were classified as secret by USA and former USSR( Russian today) and remain until now.
Chapter 1 - The Soviet Planning to Defeat the SR 71 Program
To understand aircraft that it were projected more than 50 years ago its appear in the first moment something that could just interest to historiators, but when we have been studying those aircraft and the context in that it were projected, built and used it is noticed that perhaps were one of the most intense and creative of all the well-known projects during the Cold War, being on the side of the it USA or of the USSR.
Should be absurd seem in the first analysis that on the time of the Cold War the United States had deliberately invaded the Soviet air space with tripulated aircraft in reconnaissance missions what could leave at war. The reason for this was that in the closed Soviet World it was impossible, or very difficult to confirm the real industrial and technological capabilities and with this to anticipate the future military unfolding of the Soviet Union.
From the point of view of USSR it would be vital to maintain its opponents in potential had been eluded about its own real capabilities, once this was shown crucial in the victory over Germany during II World War.
In the previous period of the II World War, practically all the military opponents had limited picture of the industrial potential and military power of the opposing side in the future war. United Kingdom, France and Soviet Union were surprised by the military and industrial capabilities of the Germany, as well as the USA once the same didn't consider that even Japan would be capable to drive a military campaign for the whole ocean Pacific.
It seems impossible that after the military campaign of Germany against France and United Kingdom, in which France was occupied and United Kingdom was vulnerable at the invasion, once the British army was almost entirely defeated in France, the Soviet Union High Command was not aware about the concentration of 4 million of military from Germany forces, as well as all its equipments and vehicles in its borders, in preparation at the invasion at Soviet Union. The fact is that of all those power nations that more had invested in the capability of tactical and strategic air reconnaissance were Germany and Japan, once this had been build from the period previous to the conflict aircraft and squadrons specifically destined to this reconnaissance mission. The Japan had created a fleet of submarines with compartments to transport hidroaircraft to be used in reconnaissances missions before the beginning of II War World.
However after the devastation inflicted by the Barbarossa Operation over Soviet forces, the high German command that had planned the invasion of the Soviet Union in three different fronts, it prioritized the occupation of Moscow on the Center Front, instead of the South Front that was addressed to occupy the oil fields of the Soviet Union . That strategy was adopted once the German High Command, after the occupation of almost 25% of the Soviet Union, it had believed that the Soviets didn't have more industrial capability to strengthen its military forces, and that the last important industrial city was own capital Moscow, that was also important for the fact that all mains railroad crossing in this city.
The main fact that German High Command had ignored that before the occupation of the main industrial cities of the Union Soviet, at the most part of the strategic industries from Soviet Union that had machines and working force to manufacture weapons and equipments, it had been transferred more than one thousand of the manufacturing facilities ( industries) for the interior of the Soviet Union, beyond the Urals mountains. The South of Soviet Union had become important too because the routes from Iran used to resupply the almost defeated Red Army with urgent s resources sent from United Kingdom and USA by sea them across the Iran. At that moment the USA had reminded neutral in this conflict, but the possible main reason was the fact that the military forces from USA were not ready for this new technological conflict. Despite the neutrality from USA until this moment of the war, several merchant ships had been sunk by German submarines ( U-boats) with thousands of American sailors and from others nations too with their, in the effort to supply the UK with desesperated resources that some part were transfered to USSR by sea.
For the that many specialists of II World War agree today about the fact that the original planning to invasion of the Soviet Union the main strategic goal should be the capture of the oil fields at the South of the Soviet Union. However after the catastrophic losses of the Red Army, the original planning was altered, being then determined that Moscow should be the priority to be captured. The capture of the oil fields in the South of the Soviet Union would have paralyzed the Soviet forces entirely, as well as its remaining industrial capability from their once would be interrupted the fuel production. Besides of the what should be obviates its needing of oil on the part of Germany in the war effort against the United Kingdom and very possible with USA, but in that time of War the German had believed in the victory would be reach very soon.
The air reconnaissance of the Germany were not capable to determine the potential industrial remainder of the Soviet Union, due to the fact of its reconnaissance aircraft had been used by the Germany in the beginning of the war were not capable to cover the vastness of the whole Soviet Union. With the replacing of the manufacture capability from Soviet Union and the retaking the production in wide scale of an entire new generation of weapons, that it were already in same cases in initial production before of the invasion, and either the weapons and equipment had sent from United Kingdom and USA, the Soviets got to avoid the taking of Moscow by German Army, in despite of the great material and human losses on the part of the Soviet forces, this was the first defeat of German Army after the invasion of Soviet Union and even in the II War World at this moment.
Due to experience of Second World War, the Soviets had learned for the worst possible way of the importance of keeping the enemies unaware from their capabilities . With this purpose ,because of its tragic experience, the Soviets had separated the Air Defense from the others armed forces, especially of the Air Force, with the objective of constituting a force specialized in this function to defense against a surprise attack, that in time of peace it would be responsible in maintaining the secrets and weakness of the nation far away from the enemy's eyes. In this time the reconnaissance satellites were still considered as subject for scientific fiction, being was like this the aircraft the main means of obtaining reconnaissance.
After the interception with missiles SA - 2 Guideline against the spy aircraft U 2 from USA piloted by Captain Gary Powers in 1960 over the Soviet Union, and the whole drama to avoid his shooting for the Soviet Union once the captive pilot were accused to be spy, and the penalty to be considered as spy were death in Soviet Union, United States had abandoned the recognition flights over the Soviet Union to avoid that new incident could happened again. So it would be a priority mission from Soviets to keep the Americans out of the airspace of the Soviet Union, even against the high sophisticated program as the SR 71 Blackbird.
The leadership of the Soviet Union had established as a subject of high priority the preparation of a planing to face the new threaten represented by the program SR 71. Due to this the first step should be accomplish an analysis of the resources and alternatives available to face the new menace.
CAUSE AND EFFECT ANALYSIS TO DEFEAT SR 71 PROGRAM
In this initial analysis assumed it was evident that there would be four candidates to face the new threat from SR 71 program:
Tu 128 Fiddler: modernized version with more advanced missiles and radar.
Su 15 Flagon: new version with variable geometry wings to improve performance as well as new missiles and radars with greater performance and range.
I-155 (MiG 25): new interceptor being developed for 155 I of the program to a new supersonic reconnaissance aircraft, and this already had the technology for large-scale development.
New interceptor project had been developed with new technologies still in research stage, and later as a project Ye 155M (MiG 31).
All these projects supposedly had strengths and weaknesses depending on the criteria used each could be the winner or winners. Thus the first step in such cases is to determine a way to analyze different designs to qualify and quantify all the strengths and weaknesses of each project. With regard to new projects is easier than deciding to justify the choice, since it must be shown to justify the method used, and how the projects, each method has its own strengths and weaknesses. Thus large and complex projects should be reviewed by a multidisciplinary team in order to have maximum possible parameters of analysis. This may be redundant for those who believe that there is a project as more advanced or better then when it comes to having a apparently lower cost, this already disqualifies others and therefore should be chosen as the winner of the competition, however when looking for different ways is very common to find that the supposedly better is just an opinion based on favorable parameters to suit a preference to professional or even personal.
Who knows someone, even an engineer, that in deciding to buy a new car chose among the various models accessible i.e by the design of it that had the lowest drag coefficient off?
This parameter is important once it affects the performance of the vehicle in several aspects as: autonomy, maximum speed, consumption of fuel, stability and others. But the automotive industries has known after several years of analyze that the emmocional appeal of the design car has more influence in the decision to buy a car then i.e. the lowest drag coefficient off, even the consumer could be a automotive engineer.
The advantage of a multidisciplinary team is of the trends in each participant has been matching with opposing tendencies within the team. Should be a complex project as a combat aircraft, the cost of the project is far more important to financial analysts than the performance, though for technical analysts performance is much more important than the cost and military analysts would be preferable to any new project that have none to face a new crisis instead to modify or evolving his doctrines.
However it is important to note that multidisciplinary teams tend to argue endlessly and thus responsible to coordinate this work probably will not satisfy everyone with its final report, as this will probably never accept such a role in the future. Quite possibly when the report is the final conclusion will not please anyone in the team could be because the common denominators were found, and that pleases no one that could be accepted by most participants of the team as the best possible to achieve under the present conditions and the restrains.
The main function of a team would be not makes the choice of the winning project, but establish the parameters of analysis for those who are assigned the task, in some situations information that can not be disclosed even at the team, including for security reasons. The hypothetical case of the SR 71 program even though the information had been collected by spies inside the program should not be disclosed to soviet team. If the USA had informants in the soviet team, they could discovered a major leak in your program SR 71, which would put at risk as possible source of information in the future for Soviet Union . Its possible in same situations that the team would be used with the purpose to disseminate false informations to adversary.
Strategic Requirements: the high members of the government has established the missions for military forces that would be necessary to accomplish in order to achieve the political objectives.
Military Requirements: the high members of the command from military forces has established the programs for new weapons systems to accomplish the missions.
Tactical Analysis : the future introduction of a new weapons system should be preceded by an assessment of the doctrines and tactics employed by the armed forces, since the introduction of a new weapons system may require a change in doctrine and tactics, or even if you change the application so as to obtain a better result.
Technical Analysis: with the requirements established for the new weapon system is necessary to evaluate the technical possibilities in order to obtain a weapons system that achieves your requirements and still be able to manufacture and maintain the lowest possible cost.
Design: Once the technology is available or in development for production begins the design phase of the new system in which several versions of the system are proposed and evaluated.
Prototype: Once the project has been approved and it is possible to get started building prototypes that have the goal of allowing the tests to evaluation.
Testing: the tests may include various parameters (performance, endurance, safety and maintenance) in order to evaluate the new system under the specified conditions for its operation, and find any weakness in the project so as to enhance the same.
Acceptance: submit the new weapon system even simulated missions to which it was developed to evaluate its effectiveness and efficiency. In the event that no new deficiencies or opportunities for improving the system is approved for large-scale production or accepted for the service.
To establish the priorities of a project should be fundamental so that the final result to assists its purpose. In this case, its were just chosen four simple parameters for demonstration . In function than it was in game, the maintenance of the deception of the economic had been created for the Soviet Union, the factor cost possibly was not considered as great importance when compared with other factors as: mission, time and improvement. Even so this should be present, once all the resources are finite, despite how greater the economic or financial of a nation.
Cost parameter( weight = 2%): the winners would be for decreasing order: Su 15 , Tu 128 , MiG 25 and MiG 31. The smallest cost to develop the project, to prepare the production line, to build the fighters and to maintain the same in operation would be the Su 15.
Time parameter( weight = 33%): the winners would be for decreasing order: Su 15 , Tu 128 , MiG 25 and MiG 31.The smallest necessary time to complete the project, to develop the prototypes, to begin the production and to obtain the operational capability would be the Su 15.
Improvement parameter(weight = 9%): the winners would be for decreasing order: MiG 31 , MiG 25 , Su 25 and Tu 128. The greater capability to improve the project as well as the fighter that would be the MiG 31, in way to assure that those fighters will be capable to answer future challenges.
Mission parameter( weight = 56%): the winners would be for decreasing order: MiG 31 , MiG 25 , Su 25 and Tu 128. To be capable to complete the mission of intercepting SR 71, that due the characteristics of this would demand a high efficiency degree in several aspects as: range, speed and fire power would be the MiG 31.
Once that was combined the values had been obtained in each priority matrix of the step 2 with the weights corresponding of the priorities that were defined in the step 1, it was possible to measure the final result in the step 3 in that the winner projects were in decreasing order : MiG 31, MiG 25, Su 15 and Tu 128. The MiG 31 would be the favorite choice.
The project MiG 31 has shows that was with better evaluation in all the parameters, and that for its innovative characteristics would be the most advanced and capable of the projects to intercept SR 71.
With relation to be classified in the second place, the project MiG 25, this also has shows a valid project, once the sum of the points was close of winner MiG 31, overcoming the projects Su 15 and Tu 128 modernized. However the MiG 25P evaluation of its performance shows a wide disadvantage with relation with its mission to intercept SR 71 when has been compared with MiG 31.
The program MiG 31 has shown in the example of it Matrix Analyzes accomplished as being the better. However when it has been analyzed using the approach of the Effort x Impact x Risky method that is used in the Six Sigma Analyzes, the MiG 25P project was in the better position in this analysis. This perhaps is one of the great challenges of who has to decide in which project to choose as winner. In the long time the project MiG 31 would be the better, but in the short time the MiG 25 program would be the possible of obtaining and almost would be capable to accomplish the mission to intercept the SR 71 despite of some restrains.
In cases as this is important if possible to get a synergy among the projects with the purpose to decrease the cost and time, that is to say to opt for MiG 25 in the short time and then to use it as platform for the new projects as MiG 31, in way to reduce the costs and time of the project MiG 31 that could be defined as the optimal choice.
However countries and companies that has been finding difficulties in analyzing technological parameters , probably would chosen the project MiG 31 with the first option, as the case studied, that was the winner in the Matrix Comparison. Them would be establish the end line since political or economical reasons for the MiG 31 project that could be possible to be only reached with the MiG 25 project.
When this happens and this could happens unfortunately with some frequency, it is high the probability that the result could be the improved MiG 25 version with the cost of the MiG 31 project, or one simplistic MiG 31 version with some performances of the MiG 25. The worst would be that end line had been stretched several times along with the cost. When the SR 71 could appear in the radar scope of the Soviet Union neither the improved version of the MiG 25 or the simplistic version of the MiG 31 would be ready to intercept the dangerous supersonic spy.
When MiG 25P had appeared the Soviet Union were developing improved versions of its Su 15 Flagon with wings of variable geometry. The appearance of SR 71 probably was a reason to stop the future development of new versions of the Su 15 interceptor, once any developed version of this interceptor would not convince the western intelligences services that the same could reach an enough performance to intercept SR 71. Only a new project, of which the western intelligence services could not obtain detailed information, it could maintain far away from the air space of the Soviet Union the dangerous SR 71.
To develop an high sophisticated fighter is a great challenge, however to manufacture in larger scale such it high sophisticated fighter is a very larger challenge too. To illustrate this issue it is enough to remind of the prototype of the supersonic bomber Sukhoi T 4 from Soviet Union, that it was built entirely with titanium alloy, it reached Mach 3 speedy and it was equipped with a system of flight control attended by analogic computer, everything this in the sixties developed by USSR, but has never entered in production. However the MiG 25 P didn't receive none of these innovative technologies, same being its first one flew after this revolutionary bomber was conceived. Why reason?
All those innovations in the Sukhoi T 4 were in experimental phase, and an fighter that it should be built in scale of hundreds, it would make unfeasible the schedule. Once when introducing new systems or same more complex, the necessary time to manufacture and to introduce in service, it would increase in severally orders, for not mentioning the cost necessary to rectify all new problems in short time, or even rebuild and replace for new systems.
The more complex system had increased the necessary time to get ready the production lines, and to train the personnel that will operate or to make the maintenance of such complex system. Any fighter had been developed to intercept SR 71 should always be operational, in any climatic condition, and in the case of USSR, this could mean a freezing cold or a scalding heat in the same period of the year, 24 hrs a day, just varying the location of the bases. Experimental technologies would not behave very well in these conditions had been climatic or of production and operation in larger scale, that it differ in a lot of the conditions of atmospheres and highly controlled processes of the laboratories in that were created by the researchers and scientists.
The program of MiG 25P had appeared as answers to the program of SR 71 and almost canceled this last one. The reason was that the Soviet had got to deceive the western intelligences services about the real capabilities of MiG 25P. With that the analyzes did by western intelligences services had indicated an interceptor with performance very superior to the that was possible to obtain with the equal available technology at disposal for MiG 25P. In fact the performance had been obtained by the western intelligence services for MiG 25P was only reached with MiG 31, which entered in service almost ten years later.
Imagine as i.e. a pilot of the MiG 25, flying at the more than 2.500 Km/hr ( Mach 2.29 ) at the altitude of 20.000 m ( 65 617 ft) in an interception mission against the SR 71, sudden had appeared a message with blue screen background on the scope saying that a fatal error happened and you should needs to restart the system of its flying control computer immediately! What would you do? Would you eject from fighter and would try to explain at your commandant that you had lost an expensive interceptor because of this "simple " flaw, and yet allowed that SR 71 invaded USSR!? Or would stay in the uncontrolled fighter, reminding that the same this the more than 2000 km/hr ( Mach 1.83 ), subjects from forces that could make the fighter disintegrating with you inside , awaiting just some minutes, and twisting fingers so for that the computer restarts its system without errors!
Unlike of the MiG 25P that should always be in readiness even because nuclear strategic bombers as B 52 or B 58, the SR 71 would be always in a base endowed with all the resources for analysis and inspection, just to prepare the same for a mission that it could be programmed with a lot time of advance, as the space missions from NASA.
Any non conformity in the SR 71 it could be it diagnoses and corrected by a highly trained and qualified personnel that would accomplish those operations on the specialized base. Probably many of these highly qualified personnel would be the same that had projected and developed its systems, that would be accompanying all the steps of those new technologies to mature these same for future applications in wide scale.
Perhaps one of the reasons that did with that MiG 25P becomes so famous went that to Soviet propaganda got to advance the performance that it would be reached only with MiG 31 project, and for these reason that when this last one appeared it was a lot of times described as just an improved version of MiG 25P, which in fact was never correct to affirm, once MiG 31 is in all the aspects a much more advanced project.
FLOWCHART DEVELOPMENT OF THE MiG 25P TO MiG 31A
Establish the winning design will always be a match between what is possible to achieve what would be desirable to have. To opt for simple or economical as the example of a fighter aircraft may endanger the sovereignty of a nation in the future, however to opt for expensive and complex could be compromising the finances of a nation, which also puts at risk the very sovereignty of this nation. Another problem is to predict future threats, since the story is replete with examples that many nations had been attacked or invaded and even occupied by threats which are not classified as significant before.
When conducting a multidisciplinary avaliation of the future military projects as i.e. does not mean that wrong decisions can not be taken, however the possibility of this occurring becomes much smaller than when the decision is based on a few fundamentals bases, especially when these fundamentals are based on the present moment in which the decision was outlet.
In the case of the MiG 25 fighter would be probably built at the anyway, but it would be its reconnaissance version that that would be adopted in wide scale. The MiG 25 RB was much more refined project in fact than the interception version MiG 25 P, and with passing of the years the variants of the reconnaissance version had continued in production even many years after the beginning of the production of the MiG 31. Perhaps the most lethal version was put in production had been destined to strike radar stations of the alert and air defenses, or SEAD ( suppression of enemy alert defenses) being this MiG 25 BM version.
This fact it could be interpreted that the interception versions MiG 25P were developed and manufactured with urgency , while the reconnaissance versions MiG 25 RB and SEAD (radar attack) MiG 25 BM hadn't been such urgent and because this had a process less problematic in the development phase, reaching better results when entered in operation.
Possibly one of the largest impacts in the appearance of SR 71 was that the same had compelled the Soviet Union to develop and to build in large scale an advanced and complex interceptor as MiG 25 P. It is possible to affirm that the cost of the MiG 25 P program was much more onerous in several times than the SR 71 program accomplished by the USA, and only for this reason it did already SR 71 as success program. Those resources had been invested in the program MiG 25 P could be used in another programs of the Soviet Union, that could be destined for the others strategic objectives that not the defense of the air space as the MiG 25RB program.
To protect a territory with 16.000 Km ( 8 889 NMI) of extension, or 22 millions Km² ( 12 millions NMI²) , it is not exactly what it could be described as a small challenge. Therefore in way to cover all its territory, and eventually from another nations of the Warsaw Pact , would demand a larger numbers of interceptors, once SR 71 could appear upon any position of its borders. Simplifying the problem, for each unit of SR 71 would be necessary several dozens of interceptors as MiG 25 P in readiness in each part of the Soviet Union around 24 hours of the day a long of the entire year.
It doesn't matter of the source of the data, the numbers of the fighters had been manufactured could demonstrated that so much MiG 25P as its successor MiG 31 were programs highly priority. Even with the introduction of the MiG 31 this last one didn't replace the MiG 25P, or it made with that MiG 25 were relegated for another activities. In fact MiG 25P had continued to execute its mission together with MiG 31, once MiG 31 was introduced in operation to replace the Tu 128 and Su 15.
USSR INTERCEPTORS CHART IN ABSOLUTE NUMBERS ACROSS THE YEARS
An important factor should be observed it was that with the increasing of available fighters, MiG 25P or MiG 31, the air space of the Soviet Union had been becoming protected more and more. Even in the case of MiG 25P that didn't have all the necessary resources to intercept SR 71 with assurance, it could become a problem for SR 71, once could be occurred some kind of failure in its flight systems of this last one, what would make the SR 71 to decrease the speed and the altitude, then could be easily intercepted by missiles AA 6 Acrid launched from MiG 25P.
USSR INTERCEPTORS CHART IN ABSOLUTE NUMBERS ACROSS THE YEARS
In the hypothetical case of cancellation of the SR 71 program, which actually almost happened, the Soviet Union probably would not put the MiG 25P version in production, but could have multiplied the number of MiG 25RB that would have the ability to be used in attacks at high altitude , which certainly would put NATO under an even greater threat. With the cancellation of SR 71 there would be a great need to protect the secrets of the performance of the MiG 25P, so they could be supplied in large quantities to the allies of the Soviet Union in the 70s, like Egypt and Syria, or even to North Vietnam .In this fictional scenario but not impossible, to determine how much pressure could be placed under the U.S. allies and even in the U.S. since this fictional scenario Americans troops in South Vietnam could be attack near the frontier of the North Vietnam by MiG 25RB that does not even need penetrate deep into the airspace of South Vietnam to carry out these attacks.
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