TR1's Great Russian Aviation Thread 7,the return of Timofey Mozgov

[JangBoGo]

Aren't those for Syria ?

Yes. They are for Syria as per the reports.

TR1,
thanks buddy.
I'm eager to know more about the A-50.....any tanker involved in the patrol etc.

[mack8]

So the 741 & 747 are meant for those models without wing-folding and refueling probe?
Or is there more to it? How about the new RD-33MKM engine?

Can you plz post the full translation? Google tranlate is not working for me.

I would but unfortunately i haven't ben able to get on take-off.ru for the last couple of days. Is it just me, or everyone has the same problem ?

Nothing there about the MKM engine( probably it hasn't been even flight-tested tested yet). From memory, first flight for 747 was December 24th , and transferred to LII on the 27th. For 741 , first flight on Feb. 3rd, and transferred to LII on the 6th.

[JangBoGo]

MIG-29 (MIG brand in general) is known commodity across the world. There are trained pilot, technicians & infrastructure. from Ex-Iraq all the way to Burma.
MIG should just churned out these many fighters ever year regardless of customer and distribute freely among allies at time of need.
IF MIG manage to raise output to 50 to 100 MIG-29M per year at $50m price. It will cost $5b at most to Russian government.
The more Russia stand up for these countries. The more contracts for MIG and other busineses will come down.
first benefit of Russian veto.
http://www.emg.rs/en/news/world/174200.html

Russia need not have to gift away things....I feel there is market left for MiG-29s (excluding India), but there need to be a pro-active policy form the Russian side to see fruitful outcome. According to my projection/speculation, prospects for MiG-29 are as follows...
The key point to success is selling the need, concept & capability to the customer. Rest will follow...

Let me remind once again, it is just a speculation! But a speculation which can be transformed into reality if (& only if) there is a political will. $15-20billion worth in deal for national economy is way much better than any UN crap...!

1) Iran
Quantity needed/projected - 120-200
Deal amount - make it $75-85million/unit (with Zhuk-MFE or Zhuk-AE)

Iran will be the biggest market for any foreseeable future if Russia takes a pro-active stance and use the current UN arms embargo for what it is worth. To wipe your ar$e. Iran faces a formidable force in the region and needs a good built up to meet the challenge thrown against it by the huge number of F-15, Typhoon, F-16 on the other side of the gulf.
If the card is played right, the deal with Iran could dwarf the MMRCA deal in terms of numbers & even in terms of value.

2) Argentina
Quantity needed/projected - 48-60 aircraft.
Deal amount - $60-65million/unit (with Zhuk-M2E or Zhuk-MFE)

Argentina is facing a military built-up in their backyard by the Brits and they require good cost-effective platforms to have a say in the matters. Britain is also proving right what people were saying years ago on the real cause for Falkland war. i.e it was for OIL.

3) Vietnam
Quantity needed/projected - 48-60 aircraft.
Deal amount - $60-65million/unit (with Zhuk-M2E or Zhuk-MFE)

Except for the handfull of Su-30MKV, they do not have any newer platforms. Su-30s looks too big for them and I feel MiG-29 will make much sense for them.

In the case of India
4) India - Indian Navy & Indian Air Force follow-on orders.
Quantity needed/projected
- 60 for Indian Navy (land based to replace maritime Jaguar)
- 60+ for Indian Air Force
Deal amount - $70-80million (with Zhuk-AE)

[J-20 Hotdog]

1) Iran
Quantity needed/projected - 120-200
Deal amount - make it $75-85million/unit (with Zhuk-MFE or Zhuk-AE)

Russia hasn't sold Iran anything for a long time other than helicopters. They also already did some modernization work on the MiG-29s and Fulcrums. In the long term Iran is going to try and build their own because they've always been pushing to be self sustainable, even if what they make is inferior.

2) Argentina
Quantity needed/projected - 48-60 aircraft.
Deal amount - $60-65million/unit (with Zhuk-M2E or Zhuk-MFE)

Argentina is facing a military built-up in their backyard by the Brits and they require good cost-effective platforms to have a say in the matters. Britain is also proving right what people were saying years ago on the real cause for Falkland war. i.e it was for OIL.

No Chance, Argentina is pro-west equipment despite UK.. but they have been interested in Chinese stuff. Not Russian. I say J-10 more likely than MiG-29, even if at all!

3) Vietnam
Quantity needed/projected - 48-60 aircraft.
Deal amount - $60-65million/unit (with Zhuk-M2E or Zhuk-MFE)

Except for the handfull of Su-30MKV, they do not have any newer platforms. Su-30s looks too big for them and I feel MiG-29 will make much sense for them.

Too big in what way? They have a huge maritime territory to cover thats disputed with many countries. They NEED RANGE

In the case of India
4) India - Indian Navy & Indian Air Force follow-on orders.
Quantity needed/projected
- 60 for Indian Navy (land based to replace maritime Jaguar)
- 60+ for Indian Air Force
Deal amount - $70-80million (with Zhuk-AE)

[/quote]
Injuns have lots of obsolete aircraft that need to be replaced soon.. in reality Rafale is likely to replace the functions of MiG-27s and Jaguars too while Su-30s are expanding their roles.

[JSR]

its no longer the 1990's son. Many countries that could've been Mig-29M importers are opting for Flankers. Even African countries are going for Flankers. Lots of trained pilots, technicians and infrastructure for Flankers too. Ethiopia and Eritrea hired many Russian and Ukrainians to help with Flanker work. Eritrea.. after getting spanked by Ethiopoian Flankers.. bought Flankers, not Fulcrums, after the war.

The older MiG-29s were only successful because of the cancelled Iraq order that led to many spare unsold ones available. Those are nearly gone if not all gone now. anything sold has to be used stock or new build M/K/35 or whatever Mig is trying to call it.

If Russia didnot start distributing lots of MIG-35 it will lose allies to China down the road. when Chinese start producing FC-1/J-10 at much greater number after satisfying there own demand
so it is better to corner the market now and give training to airforces of alot of countries for free as these pilots become decision makers down the road.
Most of these countries are resource producers or transit countries in Africa/Middleast/Asia.
JSF will be too expensive to distribute freely by under debt US.

It is not they are unneeded. only one side either have to back down and lose face in the world or collide.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/11/wo...ia-vetoes.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-501714_1...g-assad-at-un/

[WP840]

grey helicopters

Do the west have any helicopters that can compare to the Russians size wise?

[J-20 Hotdog]

If Russia didnot start distributing lots of MIG-35 it will lose allies to China down the road. when Chinese start producing FC-1/J-10 at much greater number after satisfying there own demand
so it is better to corner the market now and give training to airforces of alot of countries for free as these pilots become decision makers down the road.
Most of these countries are resource producers or transit countries in Africa/Middleast/Asia.
JSF will be too expensive to distribute freely by under debt US.

It is not they are unneeded. only one side either have to back down and lose face in the world or collide.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/11/wo...ia-vetoes.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-501714_1...g-assad-at-un/

you have a good point there.. China is eventually going to challenge Russia's markets, if not already. but right now Russia has an advantage. China sells well where Russia doesn't offer anything comparable.. like a light helicopter.. Russia has nothing comparable to a Z-9.. MI-17 is too big for some. China cannot offer large fighters like J-11.. or at least not yet :diablo:

[J-20 Hotdog]

Do the west have any helicopters that can compare to the Russians size wise?

Mi-26 is unique in the world. closest is Sea Stallion by the US.. but still not the same gap.

other wise.. Mi-17, there are western alternatives.. same for Ka-32, Mi-4, etc.

[JSR]

Russia need not have to gift away things....I feel there is market left for MiG-29s (excluding India), but there need to be a pro-active policy form the Russian side to see fruitful outcome. According to my projection/speculation, prospects for MiG-29 are as follows...
The key point to success is selling the need, concept & capability to the customer. Rest will follow...

Let me remind once again, it is just a speculation! But a speculation which can be transformed into reality if (& only if) there is a political will. $15-20billion worth in deal for national economy is way much better than any UN crap...!

1) Iran
Quantity needed/projected - 120-200
Deal amount - make it $75-85million/unit (with Zhuk-MFE or Zhuk-AE)

Iran will be the biggest market for any foreseeable future if Russia takes a pro-active stance and use the current UN arms embargo for what it is worth. To wipe your ar$e. Iran faces a formidable force in the region and needs a good built up to meet the challenge thrown against it by the huge number of F-15, Typhoon, F-16 on the other side of the gulf.
If the card is played right, the deal with Iran could dwarf the MMRCA deal in terms of numbers & even in terms of value.

2) Argentina
Quantity needed/projected - 48-60 aircraft.
Deal amount - $60-65million/unit (with Zhuk-M2E or Zhuk-MFE)

Argentina is facing a military built-up in their backyard by the Brits and they require good cost-effective platforms to have a say in the matters. Britain is also proving right what people were saying years ago on the real cause for Falkland war. i.e it was for OIL.

3) Vietnam
Quantity needed/projected - 48-60 aircraft.
Deal amount - $60-65million/unit (with Zhuk-M2E or Zhuk-MFE)

Except for the handfull of Su-30MKV, they do not have any newer platforms. Su-30s looks too big for them and I feel MiG-29 will make much sense for them.

In the case of India
4) India - Indian Navy & Indian Air Force follow-on orders.
Quantity needed/projected
- 60 for Indian Navy (land based to replace maritime Jaguar)
- 60+ for Indian Air Force
Deal amount - $70-80million (with Zhuk-AE)

India/Vietnam are already Flanker users. so they are not suitable canidates.
It is for countries that have used MIG-29 in past or present or not have modern fighters at all.
Since Flanker factories will be booked for building more complex slow moving T-50/Su-34/Su-35 for next 20 years.
It is better to modernize MIG plant to be able to produce atleast 50 aircraft per year.
I will put Afghanistan-Burma-Greece-Serbia- Syria-Egypt-Sudan-NK-Belarus-Mongolia-Armenia-Azerbijan-Argentina in medium users. Iran-Iraq-Kazakhistan among the large users. Medium user less than 50 aircraft and large user greater than 50 aircraft.

some of them can afford to pay and some cant but it is production capacity and training that is needed to deliver things on time. This is how MIG brand can be resurected in 21st century. later on they can start giving them UAVs under MIG brand.

[J-20 Hotdog]

India/Vietnam are already Flanker users. so they are not suitable canidates.
It is for countries that have used MIG-29 in past or present or not have modern fighters at all.
Since Flanker factories will be booked for building more complex slow moving T-50/Su-34/Su-35 for next 20 years.
It is better to modernize MIG plant to be able to produce atleast 50 aircraft per year.
I will put Afghanistan-Burma-Greece-Serbia- Syria-Egypt-Sudan-NK-Belarus-Mongolia-Armenia-Azerbijan-Argentina in medium users. Iran-Iraq-Kazakhistan among the large users. Medium user less than 50 aircraft and large user greater than 50 aircraft.

some of them can afford to pay and some cant but it is production capacity and training that is needed to deliver things on time. This is how MIG brand can be resurected in 21st century. later on they can start giving them UAVs under MIG brand.

I know Mongolia bought 5 MiG-29s but they are better serviced with Flankers. Mongolia is a big country with only one real military air base. The other three airbases are deserted or grass runways, and the other is the international airport. It'll be like how MiG-31s patrol the vast emptiness of Siberia. you need range to make up for lack of bases.

[Rii]

Do the west have any helicopters that can compare to the Russians size wise?

CH-53K will have comparable power in a more impressive overall package. Fingers crossed that the joint Russian-Chinese heavy lift helo program recently announced is a new design rather than Mi-26T3 or something.

[TR1]

How is Ch-53 comparable at all? It isn't even close to Mi-26 in terms of weight and payloads, let alone T2.

I don't get how it is more impressive either, since they have very different roles.

So, no, there is no Western helicopter that is comparable.

[TR1]

you have a good point there.. China is eventually going to challenge Russia's markets, if not already. but right now Russia has an advantage. China sells well where Russia doesn't offer anything comparable.. like a light helicopter.. Russia has nothing comparable to a Z-9.. MI-17 is too big for some. China cannot offer large fighters like J-11.. or at least not yet :diablo:

Ka-60 has been around for a while, hopefully it enters domestic service too, and is available for export soon after.
On the other side of the light spectrum there is Ka-226, Ansat, Mi-34 (whatever the new variant is), so there is some makeup for traditional lack of lighter Russian helos (Mi-2 aside).

Also, regarding Argentina, they bought Mi-17s recently. So more Russian equipment is not impossible.

[observe]

1) Iran
Quantity needed/projected - 120-200
Deal amount - make it $75-85million/unit (with Zhuk-MFE or Zhuk-AE)

Iran will be the biggest market for any foreseeable future if Russia takes a pro-active stance and use the current UN arms embargo for what it is worth. To wipe your ar$e.

You don't get to ignore UN arms embargoes while having the benefits of veto rights in the UN security council.

What you forget is that Russia wants to adhere to UN rules. Their position in the security council lets them effect power in regions where they otherwise would be powerless.
Take Syria - without the UN machine, Russia would have been unable to stop the UN/Arab league proposal to make Assad step down.
In that case, bye bye Tartus naval base and Yak contract.

[TR1]

http://vitalykuzmin.net/?q=node/437

3rd part of Vitaly Kuzmin's visit to Lipetsk.

[JSR]

You don't get to ignore UN arms embargoes while having the benefits of veto rights in the UN security council.

What you forget is that Russia wants to adhere to UN rules. Their position in the security council lets them effect power in regions where they otherwise would be powerless.
Take Syria - without the UN machine, Russia would have been unable to stop the UN/Arab league proposal to make Assad step down.
In that case, bye bye Tartus naval base and Yak contract.

Bush went to Irak war without UN. Qatar is in violation of arms embargo on Libya.
Russia has been sending Flankers to Bahrain airshow for couple of years. Do you really think they want to sell Flankers to Bahrain. or reminding the people in region how these jets fly there.
I think China knows more about Russia than Arabs. Consider the vast technological advancements in China. They surely will know the loser.

http://www2.canada.com/topics/news/s...tml?id=6113412

[J-20 Hotdog]

Ka-60 has been around for a while, hopefully it enters domestic service too, and is available for export soon after.
On the other side of the light spectrum there is Ka-226, Ansat, Mi-34 (whatever the new variant is), so there is some makeup for traditional lack of lighter Russian helos (Mi-2 aside).

those are some nice helicopters, especially the Ka-226 and Ansat. but they are immature.. Z-9 is established. Ka-226 needs more time.. and Ansat is sadly a dead end project after all these years, lots of intentions to build but not going anywhere.. Ka-60 same. Mi-34 is a different class of helicopter.. more of a scout helo than a multi utility role one.

out of all those I think Ka-60 is the most vital for Russia.. but in terms of export.. its a saturated market. HAL, Agusta, Eurocopter, Harbin, Bell, Sikorsky, etc..

maybe Russia should just buy some Dhruvs with Shatki engines.

[TR1]

Ansat-U is under production for VVS, so it is not dead. Ka-60 is more complicated picture, but according to recent rumors and news, militarized version of new Ka-62 variant will be bought by MOD soon. Wait and see I guess.

Z-9 has been around for far longer, no doubt, but for all that time, how many have actually been exported? Unless I am mistaken, the number is pretty low, something around 2 dozen.

[Distiller]

The whole Russian light helicopter portfolio is a sad story. Nothing they have is internationally competitive. Domestic orders are placed only to keep the industry alive.

On the super-heavy side of things it's more interesting. Basically the international market has space for only a single model - if it's supposed to be commercially viable (break-even close to 300), and not pushed for political reasons (which could push the break-even point to around 200 or so).
The MH-53K (and a possible CH-53L) will cover things on the U.S. side. Of course there's also still Boeing, but ...
On the Russian, plus possibly Chinese side some Mi-26 derivate will make the race, as I doubt they'll build a new gearbox for the class.
In between are the Euros with their heavy lift ambitions, but there is no way they will build an own gearbox. With EF2k, A400M, NH90 there was enough money sunk, and these were more prosperous times. The Euros will join up with either Sikorsky or Russian Helicopters. Sikorsky was always a little adverse to giving their gearbox to the Euros just to nourish their own competition. Now that the Marines orders for the 53K dropping ever lower Sikorsky will look for straight exports rather than cooperation. The big unknown is Germany and their Russian relations, wether they are (already) strong enough for a Euro-Russian super-heavy on Mi-26 basis. One big plus the 26 has however: It's in production. THe 53K is still at least eight years from IOC.

[Witcha]

CH-53K will have comparable power in a more impressive overall package. Fingers crossed that the joint Russian-Chinese heavy lift helo program recently announced is a new design rather than Mi-26T3 or something.

CH-53 is currently out of production, hence it didn't figure in the Indian heavylift helo tender. The new version under development won't be ready for another 6-7 years.

At present the Mi-26 doesn't have any real competitors in the market. The only alternative would be to buy a larger number of Chinooks, trading payload capacity for more advanced avionics and a better global support network.

[rsetiawan]

Too big in what way? They have a huge maritime territory to cover thats disputed with many countries. They NEED RANGE
.

which is why vietnam already a flanker user

[J-20 Hotdog]

Ansat-U is under production for VVS, so it is not dead. Ka-60 is more complicated picture, but according to recent rumors and news, militarized version of new Ka-62 variant will be bought by MOD soon. Wait and see I guess.

exactly, when it comes to Russian.. and even Chinese products.. always adopt a wait and see approach because media announcements tend to be over optimistic. I'll believe it when I see it. starting to feel that way about F-35 too :diablo:

Z-9 has been around for far longer, no doubt, but for all that time, how many have actually been exported? Unless I am mistaken, the number is pretty low, something around 2 dozen.

Its true, Z-9 has exports.. but its not that much.. it simply goes to show, multi-role utility helicopters is a very saturated and competitive market..and outside of domestic orders.. Russia has a very high uphill climb when there's tons of Dauphins, Huey variants, Blackhawk variants, Sokols, A109's, Dhruvs, S-76s, Colibris, AW139s, Bells, etc and etc available.

irony is how the Sokol is rather successful, even though its a super upgraded Mi-2 variant, with over 18 foreign customers. Most recent of which is the Philippine Air Force which is just getting it now. I think even Russian companies are one of the customers!

[Trident]

The Ansat is actually a rather advanced and fairly capable helo, once production problems and engine supply are sorted out I can see it doing quite well and the same pretty much applies to the Ka-60. Compared to those, the W-3 has the advantage of being on the market more than a decade longer (which also means there are far more after market add-ons and equipment available) and being a great deal less ambitious.

[J-20 Hotdog]

The Ansat is actually a rather advanced and fairly capable helo, once production problems and engine supply are sorted out I can see it doing quite well and the same pretty much applies to the Ka-60.

jury still out on Ansat, but Ka-60 does seem to have much potential.. but its up to the Russians to back it and we need to see if any results are being produced other than intentions

Compared to those, the W-3 has the advantage of being on the market more than a decade longer (which also means there are far more after market add-ons and equipment available) and being a great deal less ambitious.

thats probably the charm of the W-3, its simple, cheap, rugged, but still being updated to keep it relevant. and does the job. its probably why its got customers from both the former eastern bloc importers.. like Vietnam and Myanmar, to those elsewhere like Germany, South Korea, Italy, etc

[Trident]

thats probably the charm of the W-3, its simple, cheap, rugged, but still being updated to keep it relevant. and does the job. its probably why its got customers from both the former eastern bloc importers.. like Vietnam and Myanmar, to those elsewhere like Germany, South Korea, Italy, etc

Yup, it is pretty much to the Ansat what a late model Mi-17 is to the NH-90, and needless to say the Mi-17 is doing similarly well, so no surprise

[J-20 Hotdog]

Yup, it is pretty much to the Ansat what a late model Mi-17 is to the NH-90, and needless to say the Mi-17 is doing similarly well, so no surprise

indeed.. Mi-17 = Mi-38 killer !

[rsetiawan]

The whole Russian light helicopter portfolio is a sad story. Nothing they have is internationally competitive. Domestic orders are placed only to keep the industry alive.

only because they never make one since Mi-2...
oh... and civilian Helix is quite popular, but only for specific purpose so the demand are low...

[MSphere]

Actually they made the Mi-34 but AFAIK it doesn't sell..

[TR1]

Early Mi-34 had lots of issues (no surprise given the time it was born), but the recent Mi-34C1 is now out and has several sales. Guess we will see if that has greater luck.

[Flanker_man]

Ansat is slowly starting to sell.....





... and is entering RusAF service...



Ka-60 keeps getting a new paint job.....





Ka-226 comes with RR Allison engines......



.... or the more powerful Turbomeca Arrius.....



Mil have rolled out a Mi-54 mockup....





Kazan have a prototype 'Aktai'.....





I can't find my pics of a Mi-34, but I remember it does a stunning aerobatic routine....

There's a re-engined Mi-2......



But the Moscow Police fly French Squirrels !!!!!......



Ken